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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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icemanfx
post Apr 6 2023, 01:33 AM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Apr 5 2023, 11:39 PM)
Yea the war is affecting the whole world. US currency being cheapened for spending so much in helping Ukraine.

Russia exports oil, wheat, and other natural resources which is having their prices affected as well. Scalpers will come in to buy cheap from Russia and sell them at a higher price to other countries to avoid sanctions. This is making such goods more expensive. Another cause for inflation. Latest news is OPEC cutting oil production which will also jack up inflation if oil prices reach 100 a barrel.

Countries reopening everywhere now with people going crazy traveling.. Another source of spending making prices go up.

Hence Fed is not giving up on raising interest rates yet as long inflation doesn't go down. Hard to see it go down soon with the above factors. This is why some experts are predicting a recession soon.

When company growths get affected by recession (by too many jobless people, or people not earning enough to buy more of their goods or services), that's when their stock prices will tank. Can only confirm more as future earnings are revealed globally.

If only Putin stops his war and the world is back on peace again.. That alone will help so much.
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The biggest threat to the world economy is elevated oil price for extended periods. Contemporary history shows, high oil price lead to worldwide economic recession.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 6 2023, 01:35 AM
Cubalagi
post Apr 6 2023, 08:00 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 6 2023, 01:33 AM)
The biggest threat to the world economy is elevated oil price for extended periods. Contemporary history shows, high oil price lead to worldwide economic recession.
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The biggest threat is the war expanding.eg use of nukes or China got involved.


This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Apr 6 2023, 08:02 AM
icemanfx
post Apr 6 2023, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Apr 6 2023, 08:00 AM)
The biggest threat is the war expanding.eg use of nukes or China got involved.
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Going nuclear is unlikely to happen. PRC couldn't afford to get involve as any oil and raw materials price spike is detrimental to her economy.
Davidtcf
post Apr 6 2023, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Apr 6 2023, 08:00 AM)
The biggest threat is the war expanding.eg use of nukes or China got involved.
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hope China is not stupid not to launch a war against Taiwan.
US will definitely help out Taiwan which results in a big war. Maybe other countries will join in too.
Whole world economy will go haywire that time if this happens.
xander2k8
post Apr 6 2023, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Apr 6 2023, 09:43 AM)
hope China is not stupid not to launch a war against Taiwan.
US will definitely help out Taiwan which results in a big war. Maybe other countries will join in too.
Whole world economy will go haywire that time if this happens.
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China will definitely launch a soft war 1st against Taiwan and matter is when

Any war happens the world will go haywire 🤦‍♀️ just like now with inflation
Cubalagi
post Apr 6 2023, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Apr 6 2023, 09:43 AM)
hope China is not stupid not to launch a war against Taiwan.
US will definitely help out Taiwan which results in a big war. Maybe other countries will join in too.
Whole world economy will go haywire that time if this happens.
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Many people thought that Russia wouldnt be stupid enough to attack Ukraine too.

And who would imagine governments doing a lockdown in 2020? Whole world economy did go haywire.

icemanfx
post Apr 6 2023, 08:44 PM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Apr 6 2023, 09:43 AM)
hope China is not stupid not to launch a war against Taiwan.
US will definitely help out Taiwan which results in a big war. Maybe other countries will join in too.
Whole world economy will go haywire that time if this happens.
*
QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Apr 6 2023, 11:27 AM)
China will definitely launch a soft war 1st against Taiwan and matter is when

Any war happens the world will go haywire 🤦‍♀️ just like now with inflation
*
Historically, CCP will not hesitate to engage in foreign conflict when facing domestic discontent.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 6 2023, 08:45 PM
Cubalagi
post Apr 7 2023, 12:05 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 6 2023, 08:44 PM)
Historically, CCP will not hesitate to engage in foreign conflict when facing domestic discontent.
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They will also not hesitate to go to war if some red line has been crossed.


square2
post Apr 7 2023, 12:25 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Apr 7 2023, 12:05 AM)
They will also not hesitate to go to war if some red line has been crossed.
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too many B40 and M40 already started to live a comfortable life in china. who wants to go war except cccp party? most of the world, patriotism is dead

any war between them, asean will benefit the most
xander2k8
post Apr 7 2023, 05:43 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 6 2023, 08:44 PM)
Historically, CCP will not hesitate to engage in foreign conflict when facing domestic discontent.
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What domestic discontent 🤦‍♀️ Last years protest shows that Xi is weakening and look at what Taiwan did now but no response unlike Pelosi visit within an hour fighter jets were scrambling around Taiwan 🤦‍♀️

If Xi can’t fix the economy this term expect him hung down even by his loyalists 🤦‍♀️

QUOTE(square2 @ Apr 7 2023, 12:25 AM)
too many B40 and M40 already started to live a comfortable life in china. who wants to go war except cccp party? most of the world, patriotism is dead

any war between them, asean will benefit the most
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ASEAN won’t benefit 🤦‍♀️ India is the biggest beneficiary even before ASEAN
ozak
post Apr 7 2023, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(square2 @ Apr 7 2023, 12:25 AM)
too many B40 and M40 already started to live a comfortable life in china. who wants to go war except cccp party? most of the world, patriotism is dead

any war between them, asean will benefit the most
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Communist teaching is very much different from us. They brainwash put the party 1st. Not economy or money. Less patriotism is a democracy country like us.

Asean is benefiting now from deglobalization into reglobalization. Asean like vietnam and Thailand get more relocation from China.

In Malaysia also, I get more inquiries from EU company for their product shift out from China makers. This company have plant here. They said reducing the risk and dependency.
SUSTOS
post Apr 7 2023, 10:49 AM

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WSJ MARKETS: STOCKS

Stocks Haven’t Looked This Unattractive Since 2007
The allure of shares dimmed when bond yields surged and the corporate-earnings picture continued to darken

https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-havent-...share_permalink

------------------------

WSJ MARKETS: PERSONAL FINANCE

Why Brokerage Accounts Are So Generous Right Now
Betterment, Wealthfront and others now offer higher returns and more protection than most bank accounts

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-collapse-...share_permalink

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WSJ MARKETS: CREDIT MARKETS

Office Vacancies Send Real-Estate Investors to the Exits
Some fear rout in commercial mortgage bonds could signal trouble for banks

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-retr...share_permalink

----------------------

WSJ MARKETS: HEARD ON THE STREET

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

icemanfx
post Apr 7 2023, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Apr 7 2023, 09:41 AM)
Communist teaching is very much different from us. They brainwash put the party 1st. Not economy or money. Less patriotism is a democracy country like us.

Asean is benefiting now from deglobalization into reglobalization. Asean like vietnam and Thailand get more relocation from China.

In Malaysia also, I get more inquiries from EU company for their product shift out from China makers. This company have plant here. They said reducing the risk and dependency.
*
MNC used to incentives given by prc local government will find maluhsia unattractive.
ozak
post Apr 7 2023, 02:09 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Apr 5 2023, 08:45 PM)
Sold out some alphabets recently. But still have quite a sizeable position, as you know its alpha-bet. They might have some hidden ai/quantum computing products up their sleeves.

Lately i have been chatgpt-ing some of my questions instead of googling. The result is surprisingly ok, no need to shift through pages of search result and get confused by sponsored post.
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Why sell early?

The stock starts to go up now. Thanks to AI competition hit up.
ozak
post Apr 7 2023, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 7 2023, 02:05 PM)
MNC used to incentives given by prc local government will find maluhsia unattractive.
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MY actually is not attractive to investors. This has been known for some time.

The product shifting is for those who already have the plant here. So I guess the investment is not big and save?

Last yrs is quite silent in MY. And hit up in Vietnam and Thailand. But this yrs, some happening for MY also.
xander2k8
post Apr 7 2023, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Apr 7 2023, 02:09 PM)
Why sell early?

The stock starts to go up now. Thanks to AI competition hit up.
*
Won’t be that easy because more legislation coming under Republicans 🤦‍♀️

It will start going down this year until after election to see whose in power then you only can decide
SUSTOS
post Apr 7 2023, 07:10 PM

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WSJ

Declines in Loan Values Are Widespread Among Banks
Lenders could face pressure on earnings or liquidity, or to pay higher rates for deposits

https://www.wsj.com/articles/declines-in-lo...share_permalink

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CFO JOURNAL

Companies That Went Public via SPACs Log Billions of Dollars in Goodwill Write-Downs
Pretax impairments by the combined businesses more than quadrupled in 2022 compared with the previous year

https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-that...share_permalink
ChAOoz
post Apr 9 2023, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Apr 7 2023, 02:09 PM)
Why sell early?

The stock starts to go up now. Thanks to AI competition hit up.
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Diversifying some risk. Move into cash and see what's up for coming earning quarters and any opportunity elsewhere or not.

Search moat will probably have some challenger, so better diversified out the risk while see if there is real risk to google's competitive moat.
SUSTOS
post Apr 10 2023, 09:41 AM

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WSJ Markets

Private Equity’s Food Binge Goes Sour
Firms snapped up food and beverage companies using bundles of debt before interest rates started rising

https://www.wsj.com/articles/private-equity...share_permalink

-------------------

STOCKS

Investors View Corporate Earnings Season as Next Test for Stocks
First-quarter profits are projected to drop from a year earlier

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-view...share_permalink

--------------------

MARKETS: HEARD ON THE STREET

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

SUSTOS
post Apr 11 2023, 09:26 AM

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WSJ NEWS EXCLUSIVE

Auditors Didn’t Flag Risks Building Up in Banks
Bond losses such as those at Silicon Valley Bank could have been raised as ‘critical audit matters’

https://www.wsj.com/articles/auditors-didnt...share_permalink

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WSJ MARKETS: STOCKS

Stock Pickers Failed to Take Part in First-Quarter Rally
Bearish positioning, less exposure to big tech stocks hurt active fund managers

https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-pickers-...share_permalink

(Cross-posted with bogleheads thread)

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