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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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ChAOoz
post Feb 6 2018, 02:16 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 6 2018, 12:51 PM)
Finally, the bears are waking up!  rclxms.gif
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Donald trump gonna tweet best performance EVAAAAAA ! new highs everyday laugh.gif
ChAOoz
post May 21 2019, 12:57 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 21 2019, 10:57 AM)
Most AAPL products are made in china; china is unlikely to shoot its own foot.
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There is a possibility, as long term Apple will need to move it's manufacturing and supply chain to be less china reliant as per Trump words.

Also main vendor is foxconn, which the owner Terry Gou has a very firm view in regards to Taiwan - China relationship. So never say never.
ChAOoz
post Jun 4 2019, 12:05 PM

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Seemed like tech stock are oversold based on news. Fundamental value actually did not change much. To wait further or go in now. Tough decision hmm
ChAOoz
post Jun 7 2019, 08:59 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 7 2019, 01:35 AM)
Yup, better be safe than sorry.

These 3 days, US market has rebounded a bit but still less than previous highs.
Maybe another making of a dead-cat-bounce again.

Nothing so far as changed and the talk with Mexico hasn't improve.
The impact for imported Mexico products will be felt immediately within a week or two
since billions cross the borders everyday.

The trade war is made up by DT and looks like he's hell-bent to stir up the market
with the Fed on his back this time (to lower rate if economy tanks).

Then, he's going to end up coming in to save the market (by making deals) like a hero
for the re-election next year.

Strap in, we maybe going in for a bumpy ride for the 2nd half here.  biggrin.gif
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Yes seemed like that is what he is planning. Taking trade wars to arm twist the fed into lowering rates. DT may be a genius after all, but not for America, for his own benefit laugh.gif
ChAOoz
post Jun 7 2019, 09:00 AM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jun 7 2019, 08:45 AM)
Very very likely to see multiple valley till near term.

IF he wish to cont to be potus
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He already tweeted he will be running for re-election. Traders favourite POTUS lol with all these wild swings and tweets.
ChAOoz
post Jun 20 2019, 09:19 AM

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QUOTE(mapeyeo1 @ Jun 20 2019, 07:55 AM)
So, are u guys at lower risk or higher risk to prepare for Donald Trump at g20? now back at 18.5% risk but think of lowering it.
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Lowering risk, what he is doing is too unpredictable and seemed like it's going even more drastic day by day. Eg intervening on Fed's decision. This really hurt investor confidence.

It's like you are passing your steering wheel to a mad man and hope for the best rclxub.gif
ChAOoz
post Jun 22 2019, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 2 2019, 01:23 AM)
DT now gone triple insane.  Picking on India next.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/trade/44...al-trade-status

The market going on trajectory to revisit Dec lows. Being short is the new long for sure.

So far we have the following from the recent high:

SP500 -6.7%
Dow -6.7%
Nasdaq -9.4%  <- lead the way up and the way down.  thumbup.gif
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Anyone add position during that time ? Trumptweet-nomics just made you richer laugh.gif
ChAOoz
post Jul 24 2019, 11:46 AM

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QUOTE(Lady C. @ Jul 23 2019, 07:30 PM)
What is the connection between Netflix and Facebook? Netflix really fell hard, but Facebook is moving in its channel to the top. Netflix did not drag Facebook down to the bottom. and why?
Weekly
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For Netflix is due to new subscriber drop, revenue growth stalling. Competition from Amazon , Disney etc.
ChAOoz
post Jul 24 2019, 11:49 AM

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Btw anyone can recommend company that does not pay dividend at all, but reinvest all their earning ?

Looking for some bargain in growth play stock to hold long term.
ChAOoz
post Jul 24 2019, 11:05 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 24 2019, 07:46 PM)
Berkshire Hathaway.. 😆
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BRK? Good recommend hahahah. 0 Dividend all the way.

But Berkshire future will rest with Ted & Todd. Both making big bets on technology, lets see if the protege can continue on his and Charlie midas touch. So far their Visa / Master bets work out well. Can observe their india / amazon / apple bets.

Also BRK-A cost more than a mil here. Definitely long term play, and too match an order for this is not easy sweat.gif
ChAOoz
post Aug 7 2019, 11:05 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Aug 7 2019, 10:45 PM)
What are your thoughts on Disney? For a long term play
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They got very strong IP that could work well with their theme parks and overall corporate strategy in the long run.

But i don't know did they overpay for those or not. As you know lately many M&A has been all in the billions due to hunt for yield and low interest rate. But not all make sense.
ChAOoz
post Aug 7 2019, 11:21 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 26 2019, 02:34 AM)
I assume when you state bargain, it also means value.
Value/Bargain and Growth - most of the time they don't go hand in hand.
Growth stock usually more expensive and have relatively high PE.
Value/Bargain stock have low/mid PE but they don't have much growth anymore, hence willing to pay
dividends.

It's kinda difficult to find which one can straight out do reinvest all their earnings that all time.
That decision to reinvest or pay dividends (raise/suspend) usually come out after their
quarterly earnings or their shareholders/board meeting depending on the company performance.  Usually high growth companies like AMZN, NFLX, FB, etc they don't pay any dividends, but you can say they reinvest their earnings most of the time because of need to grow.

But, when they reinvest their earnings (like BRKB), they don't always allocate ALL the earned capital back
into the investment. There's always some hold back and you may or may not like some of the areas they reinvest back into.
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Yeah so true. Value / Growth really don't go hand in hand, especially the obvious one that are bought in growth fund, dividend funds etc.

But some growth stocks are a bargain could be due it is not necessarily categorized as a growth stock now, but a turnaround could be brewing or that it has underlying assets that were not obvious and priced in yet.

Maybe some members here can spot diamond in the rough. Such as a stable stock that does pretty well over the years without much excitement but had spend significantly in R&D becoming a leader in their field. Sort of like a microsoft pre-cloud era.
ChAOoz
post Aug 7 2019, 11:30 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 7 2019, 11:14 PM)
Well, current quarter tells us they've a huge missed on EPS. DIS spent a lot of money acquiring Fox and preparing for its new streaming service (Disney+)

Projected to lose 45c shr for FY2021. Streaming loses could be up to 900mln because of upfront spending and trying to gain market share

Success: Marvel series
Flop: Dark Phoenix

Nov 12 - to launch that streaming service @ 12.99 bundle same cost as Netflix (for US subscribers).
Yes, they include Hulu & Disney+ but it will be cannibalizing the other TV service (declining cable/satellite subscribers, losing >20mln subs) they already had. So, they're just breaking even here.

Fwd earnings: 22x, not sure about future growth at this time.

IMO, it's expensive at current price 135.

I would wait till it dips further to 120-125.
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I really feel these kinda of spending for acquisition right now is really unsustainable. It might have worked out well for Facebook, Whatsapp etc. But now all the company are just throwing money for customer acquisition and growth hoping the bets will work out like Amazon.

The recent VC deals, Big Tech acquisition, is starting to remind me of a similar financial crisis, but now in the tech sector. So many over valued lost making company in the name of growth, and traditional company are spending loads following these value destroying business model.

https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/26/unicorns-...et-doesnt-care/
ChAOoz
post Aug 20 2019, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 17 2019, 07:09 AM)
Actually, what i mean was, the industries that may caused recession, not about valuation of public listed companies.
Tesla, even if it bankrupt, it will not cause any major damage to the US economy. The same goes to Beyond Meat and Uber etc.
Stocks overvalued can only caused a little effect on investors who invested in them, unless it's a broad base overvaluation in entire US market, which may cause financial crisis.

You mention JD. I think it's not too overpriced, just that the market has priced in its current/forward earnings instead of trailing earnings.
For FY19, consider GAAP EPS (in USD), Q1 is 0.74 and Q2 is 0.05, that goes 1.58 full year (although most people think 2H should be even stronger due to holiday season). This gives a PE of 19x at $30 share price. Now see Non-GAAP EPS. Q1 is 0.33 and Q2 is also 0.33, that goes 1.32 full year. This gives PE of 22.7x. I'd say, not so expensive, consider it's likely to maintain double digits earning growth in the next few years. For JD, the kind of company which still at high growth/shaping stage, the earnings and expenses can be very volatile. I like to simply look at its market cap after a healthy balance sheet (JD has a healthy balance sheet and cash flow). JD's market cap is only 10% of Alibaba, and 5% of Amazon. When i look at how big JD is, and how small its market cap is, i say it's a bargain.

Thanks for the info on US housing market, surprise to know that some regions has cheaper than Malaysia house! However, nowadays, Malaysia housing price is overvalued for sure. As for KL, i guess, maybe a 25% overpriced. But in HK and even China, house in city center is ridiculously high!
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Usually it is consumer side that caused recession. Eg high household debt. Fortunately consumer debt is on it's healthiest level since the past 2 decades ?

But then i see bubble brewing in the private equity space. It won't take long for some wall street banker to financially engineer some "low risk, high return" products that peddle private equity as the holy grail of yield to the retail investor. With such low yield in safer asset, definitely those banker would make a killing. Woodford's fund may be the canary in the coal mine for what's to come.
ChAOoz
post Aug 22 2019, 08:20 AM

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Yield inversion again and this time no response from market. We are really in a new era of super low yield.

Capital intensive industry surely benefiting from this. Airlines, Miners, Heavy Equipment manufacturers ? Anyone else feel there are opportunity in these sector ?
ChAOoz
post Aug 26 2019, 06:42 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 23 2019, 01:06 AM)
The market is addicted to the low rates.. like drugs.

The US economy isn't sick, little signs of recession, but the banks/hedge funds and even this crazy US President is
crying out for more 'low rates' for the market.  Giving it  antibiotic when it isn't sick, will end up badly.  shakehead.gif
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When you abuse antibiotics like this. It surely is gonna be bad when you are really sick, as antibiotics is no longer effective.

If worse come to worse next recession may well be wealth redistribution as the tools.
ChAOoz
post Aug 26 2019, 06:52 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Aug 26 2019, 06:46 PM)
Don't understand what you mean. Usually rich people are the ones who survive a recession.
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Socialism my friend. You will see this buzz word trending if our world economy really go into a recession.

Due to the low rates all around, we can't truly say we recovered from last crisis.
ChAOoz
post Aug 26 2019, 07:06 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Aug 26 2019, 06:54 PM)
US is far from socialism. Socialism does not work.

Low rates are a result of people switching from stocks to bonds due to uncertainty.
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Things may change. Politician may come and go, but the view they represent and the shifting trend of support they gain is a good indicator.

Now the world is very nationalistic, but i expect when shit hits the fan, socialist movement will increase as well. Never say never laugh.gif
ChAOoz
post Nov 23 2019, 10:14 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 23 2019, 05:20 AM)
Amazing... week number 3. The bulls still going.
Collected another week of premium.

This market seems to have no fear for now.  hmm.gif
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The market survive tariff, rate inversion, and even an erratic president.

Seemed like nothing is to big to stop the show now.

Optimism is peaking in the US, and tariff like low rate is an everyday norm now.
ChAOoz
post Feb 13 2020, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Feb 9 2020, 03:54 AM)
Any examples of good dividend portfolios?
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I like ibm. Feeding off its legacy via dividend and some upside for a possible turn around.

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