simple business logic

when price deliveries increase < selling lower selling prices = lower earnings.

not forgetting that price cut had already created price wars ....

plus with higher interest rates now, how many will dive in and get a brand new car (unless necessary) ?


from that article...

Lower margins this year will even offset the profit impact of continued growth in deliveries, according to analysts’ forecasts. The current consensus according to FactSet is for a slight fall in net income this year, the first decline since Tesla became profitable in 2019. The forecast cuts started last fall, but continued in the first quarter even as Tesla shares jumped 68%.

The result is that Tesla’s stock has become once again very expensive compared with its profit and its peers. The forward price-earnings ratio is now 45 times, up from about 20 at the start of the year. Its market value is $616 billion, well over three times that of Toyota, the world’s largest car maker by sales. Including the dilutive impact of stock options, which are a real cost to shareholders, the gap is even wider, with Tesla’s market value at $692 billion.

The only world in which this makes sense is one where the EV maker will take a lion’s share of industry profit, following the pattern of Apple and mobile phones. The competitive battles in China, the world’s most developed EV market, show that the road to this potential future, which was never wide, continues to narrow.


Yup, selling more cars and delivering more cars does not equate to more profits when the selling price is lowered.

Yup, with lower earnings, this would probably mark the end of Tesla as a high growth stock ...... and if that's the case, how can Tesla command the high forward p/e multiples?


End of growth stocks is usually devastating ....




just think out loud ya........


p/s TOS, took out your name.
I'm sure you do not want me quoting your name all the time.

ok... so you advice... short it?...

Hahahaha.... how are you?


1. just sharing some thoughts this morning la
2. I got no advice to give
3. If I don't like a stock or I think lowly of a stock, I don't SHORT. (not my game)
4. I am not a believer of Tesla.
5. In the market, there are instances when the stock movement will contradict our own reasoning. It will always happen.
6. Do we want to play stocks as per our own reasoning or do we want to play stocks by assuming what the market will react to the stock?
7. When Tesla started announcing the price cut in Dec last year, my reasoning that's a big no-no. Price cuts will start price wars (which has happened). And in normal business logic, when you cut price and you do not generate significant new sales, the lower selling price will equate to lower earnings. (well, Tesla earnings will be out this month. Let's see).
8. Yeah, but despite that reasoning, Tesla defied logic and soared by more than 60%. LOL!

lucky I waited, end of month/beginning of month usually pumped up by big wallstreet players.

job report lower than expect. Recession fears now inbound:
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market...bs-data-3048442

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Apr 5 2023, 09:45 AM

and here's why .......................

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/...in-military-aid

back from long holiday...

this Smart #1 car nice looking feel like buying... so this month maybe restart trading to fund it...

saw all the trend reversals 2-3 weeks back but going on holiday so dun wanna risk sour face on holidays nanti wifu ketuk... now come back fomo liao... hahaha...


This post has been edited by dwRK: Apr 5 2023, 10:47 AM

Minions view tsla as tech company rather than car company.

Funniest thing in Msia is that I see a lot of ev owners talking and talking how cheap to drive outstation...

Mind blowing for me.... Cos these cars aren't cheap in the first.... All these savings.. for even 10 years... does it justify the price they paid for their fancy cars?


... but yeah....lots of squeezes here and there... playing them squeezes might be an idea for u....

Cheers

https://www.statista.com/statistics/272473/...m-2000-to-2012/



and then we have this ...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/184069/...n-and-research/




Yup... yup ... yup ...




and yeah .... the big one .... probably gonna get much bigger in the coming months ......



https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/it-wil...ine/ar-AA19tkU4





This post has been edited by Boon3: Apr 5 2023, 12:52 PM

quite sure early adopters know these are not cheap cars lah... most probably havent even done 1st service... but we as a whole like to talk fc/maintenance... so its just one of the common talking points... 2nd maybe where to find charging stations and dumbass ppl parking their spot... lol

cost conscious pp best served by new axia and alza... i actually quite impressed with the new alza... maybe i get this...

eh... so buy european cement, steel and construction stocks?....



This post has been edited by dwRK: Apr 5 2023, 12:55 PM

Yup .... Rich Man's problems....


Yeah, the new Myvi was surprisingly very good ... 60k .... One month use rm200 fuel, one year rm2400 or rm24,000 of fuel for 10 years. Throw in another 10k worth of parts and services for 10 years usage .... that's under 100k.

How can EV compare? Some more Myvi got vroom vroom sound. EV? LOL! Got what sound?

Errr .... how long you think the war will drag on?


How much 'aid' has US given to Ukraine?

Do you think it will be a free aid?

this article was posted on Feb 2023...

https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-ha...-are-six-charts



and we can add in the 2.6 billion from todays news. ( https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/...in-military-aid )

WSJ NEWS EXCLUSIVE: FINANCE

Signature Bank Insiders Sold $100 Million in Stock During Crypto Surge
Sales went largely unnoticed by investors due to securities rules and filing method

https://www.wsj.com/articles/signature-bank...share_permalink

---------------------

WSJ NEWS EXCLUSIVE PRO BANKRUPTCY DISTRESS

McKinsey Winding Down Firm’s Bankruptcy Practice
The consulting firm’s bankruptcy practice attracted lawsuits and government investigations in recent years

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mckinsey-is-sh...share_permalink

Nothing to do with pumping by market makers 🤦‍♀️ as they can pump whenever they want to play the market

It is more due to job numbers and inflation data plus Fed balance sheet report release 🤦‍♀️

It is more silent whistling around while paying more imported tax and depreciation to themselves instead 🤦‍♀️

Sold out some alphabets recently. But still have quite a sizeable position, as you know its alpha-bet. They might have some hidden ai/quantum computing products up their sleeves.

Lately i have been chatgpt-ing some of my questions instead of googling. The result is surprisingly ok, no need to shift through pages of search result and get confused by sponsored post.

This post has been edited by ChAOoz: Apr 5 2023, 08:45 PM

U.s spent over $2 trillions on war in afghanistan. believe u.s would be happy to spend over $3 trillions if could weaken russia for a few decades.

Unless there is a premature cease fire; either way the war end, russia will pay for the rebuilding of ukraine.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 5 2023, 09:09 PM

Reverse repo was taught in my fixed-income class. Now it features on WSJ.

MARKETS: FINANCE

Deposit Outflows Shine Light on Fed Program That Pays Money-Market Funds
Reverse repo offers interest on firms’ cash balances, but some analysts say flows add to bank-system stress

https://www.wsj.com/articles/deposit-outflo...share_permalink

This post has been edited by TOS: Apr 5 2023, 10:48 PM

Yea the war is affecting the whole world. US currency being cheapened for spending so much in helping Ukraine.

Russia exports oil, wheat, and other natural resources which is having their prices affected as well. Scalpers will come in to buy cheap from Russia and sell them at a higher price to other countries to avoid sanctions. This is making such goods more expensive. Another cause for inflation. Latest news is OPEC cutting oil production which will also jack up inflation if oil prices reach 100 a barrel.

Countries reopening everywhere now with people going crazy traveling.. Another source of spending making prices go up.

Hence Fed is not giving up on raising interest rates yet as long inflation doesn't go down. Hard to see it go down soon with the above factors. This is why some experts are predicting a recession soon.

When company growths get affected by recession (by too many jobless people, or people not earning enough to buy more of their goods or services), that's when their stock prices will tank. Can only confirm more as future earnings are revealed globally.

If only Putin stops his war and the world is back on peace again.. That alone will help so much.