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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 30 2015, 05:30 PM)
Ya, everything got up and down. Waiting for opportunity again at <4.30.

Really surprised RM is up with so many negative news
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common to have overshoot, either way.

when info change, it starts all over again.

hence the idea "never time the market".

i still see the rm continue to weaken but will get the breaks along the way.


budget 2016 on oct 23 is the one to watch - what budget deficit, what oil/gas price assumption, what pm dept budget.


Hansel
post Sep 30 2015, 05:37 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 30 2015, 05:30 PM)
Ya, everything got up and down. Waiting for opportunity again at <4.30.

Really surprised RM is up with so many negative news
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I think in the longer term, there is really no catalyst for the RM to turn around. Slight breathers like this are good for RM sellers to take positions into the foreign markets/currencies.
Showtime747
post Sep 30 2015, 05:39 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 30 2015, 05:35 PM)
common to have overshoot, either way.

when info change, it starts all over again.

hence the idea "never time the market".

i still see the rm continue to weaken but will get the breaks along the way.
budget 2016 on oct 23 is the one to watch - what budget deficit, what oil/gas price assumption, what pm dept budget.
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I think the budget will be concentrated on "rakyat benefit" (read : spend for rural voters, to consolidate power)

Budget deficit is set to be broken tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Sep 30 2015, 05:44 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 30 2015, 05:37 PM)
I think in the longer term, there is really no catalyst for the RM to turn around. Slight breathers like this are good for RM sellers to take positions into the foreign markets/currencies.
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Ya, long term wise, based on status quo, RM doesn't look good. Will improve only if their is structural transformation in politics

For US$, short term wise, there is always a risk of rates rise being pricing in now until October. It is a risk we have to take when dealing in US$
AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 05:47 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 30 2015, 05:39 PM)
I think the budget will be concentrated on "rakyat benefit" (read : spend for rural voters, to consolidate power)

Budget deficit is set to be broken  tongue.gif
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that's what investors will be looking for.

if pm dept budget is bloated aggressively, higher budget deficit than the revised current yr budget which will surely not make it, and an overly optimistic oil/gas price assumption, you know where the rm will go.
Hansel
post Sep 30 2015, 05:53 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 30 2015, 04:07 PM)
It depends how it is being viewed.
eg.
if we take 2008 as reference point, USD/RM was about 3.40 during that time

Now 2015, USD/RM is 4.40 today.

A person used 34K RM to exchange for 10k USD on 2008, as USD was paying virtually zero interest since 2008, now A person still has 10k USD, which is equivalent to RM44K today

So, A person gain RM10K by holding USD since 2008, now A has RM44k worth.

B put 34K in RM FD on 2008, which carry interest range from 3~4% in this period of time, if we takes average of 3.5%, 7 years x 3.5% compounding is about 27%.
34K x 27% = RM43.2K.

B person has RM43.2K vs A RM44K.

But on paper, A looks like the person "win" big, but in real fact, A only slight better off than B,
while if USD vs RM dropped below 4.30, A actually lose out to B.

Do pay consideration on this issue as well in term of comparison. That's the reason why I emphasis a lot of importance on the yield of every investment.
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biggrin.gif Cherroy,... I'm afraid you have put in very, very tight timings into your example here to corner me. I am of the opinion that what I intend to do by manipulating around the currencies is quite macro in nature and am not really trying to catch the tight timings that you have put in-place above.

Your example above starts in 2008 and terminates at mid-September, 2015, measuring the parameters exactly during that period to determine success. This is quite an extreme case of market timing in-play, which, again, is not I am not trying to do here.

Furthermore, the view that I take is far into the future. I do not intend to take a measurement by the end of this year, nor by the end-of-the-next, etc.

I do not base my investment success on the RM anymore, for I am running away from the RM.
MGM
post Sep 30 2015, 05:56 PM

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It boils down to a little bit of luck. Cos there are also things that we can't control. What if war break out in ME, and world oil output is cut into half, just if?
TSwil-i-am
post Sep 30 2015, 06:10 PM

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Any idea y USD/MYR appreciate from 4.4565 on 29/9 to 4.3955 today?
nexona88
post Sep 30 2015, 06:39 PM

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From: REality
No Need To Peg Ringgit To US Dollar, Says Zeti
QUOTE
"If you peg the currency, something else will adjust, either prices or demand conditions, and those might have greater effects on our economy?," she told reporters

What we want to demonstrate is that when we have fundamentals that can allow us to adjust, then when the uncertainty subsides, our currency will regain its strength again," she said.

http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v8/bu/newsb....php?id=1175327

Hansel
post Sep 30 2015, 06:43 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Sep 30 2015, 06:39 PM)
No Need To Peg Ringgit To US Dollar, Says Zeti

http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v8/bu/newsb....php?id=1175327
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'...the currency will regain its strength. ...'

I wonder regain to what level. The further it drops, the harder it will be for it to recover to the initial level after the tapering ended.
nexona88
post Sep 30 2015, 06:46 PM

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From: REality
QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 30 2015, 06:43 PM)
'...the currency will regain its strength. ...'

I wonder regain to what level. The further it drops, the harder it will be for it to recover to the initial level after the tapering ended.
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The million dollar question in everyone minds blush.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 06:48 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 30 2015, 06:10 PM)
Any idea y USD/MYR appreciate from 4.4565 on 29/9 to 4.3955 today?
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that is +1.39%, same gain for korean won and probably same for the worst hit currencies like brazil.

this, i think is due to usual daily usd fluctuations/weakening.

the worst hit currencies are more sensitive to usd movement.

doubt any bnm intervention.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 30 2015, 06:55 PM
TSwil-i-am
post Sep 30 2015, 07:07 PM

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Indonesia unveils measures aimed to stabilise rupiah
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...piah/?style=biz

Will M'sia follow suit?
prody
post Sep 30 2015, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(alexanderclz @ Sep 30 2015, 05:09 PM)
if can so easily make money/predict the future, there won't be people in this forum anymore, will it?

everyone would be rich already
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Yeah, it is definitely not easy.
prody
post Sep 30 2015, 07:09 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 30 2015, 05:35 PM)
I am D, but in the SGD context. NOt kept purely in cash, bought REITs and dividend stocks. So, quite okay on that front for me.  smile.gif
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Ok, you can be E. tongue.gif
Hansel
post Sep 30 2015, 07:19 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Sep 30 2015, 07:09 PM)
Ok, you can be E.  tongue.gif
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biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 08:04 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 30 2015, 07:07 PM)
Indonesia unveils measures aimed to stabilise rupiah
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...piah/?style=biz

Will M'sia follow suit?
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need to understand this...

meaning... bank indon issuing foreign currency debt?

borrowing fx to fight fx? shakehead.gif

woo... how are they going to redeem them in future?

with only 105 billion usd in fx reserves...
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/...change-reserves

looks like just another risky way to peg the rupiah... sweat.gif

Key steps include the planned issuance of Bank Indonesia certificates in foreign currency and central bank intervention in the forward market for rupiah, in order contain expectations on how much more it might depreciate.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 30 2015, 08:10 PM
dreamer101
post Sep 30 2015, 08:25 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 30 2015, 01:24 PM)
like it or not, more of yr epf money is going to mgs with foreigners exiting.
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 30 2015, 01:31 PM)
Yield about 4-5%. Not bad for EPF. Last time only 2% to 3+%.

7% dividend in coming !!

Judging from how much my RM loss its value, must think positive a bit  sweat.gif
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Folks,

You should know that there is not enough money (cash flow) to cover this hole from the domestic source.

The largest pool of money in Malaysia is the EPF at around 600+billions. This is life time 20+% contribution of 1+ millions people. The usual budget deficit is 40 to 50 billions. So, there is not enough EPF contribution coming in every year to finance the budget deficit. We have not even count in the reduce contribution from Petronas yet.

Beyond EPF, the other fund is much much smaller with a lot less cash flow.

Dreamer


Showtime747
post Sep 30 2015, 09:27 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 30 2015, 08:25 PM)
Folks,

You should know that there is not enough money (cash flow) to cover this hole from the domestic source.

The largest pool of money in Malaysia is the EPF at around 600+billions.  This is life time 20+% contribution of 1+ millions people.  The usual budget deficit is 40 to 50 billions.  So, there is not enough EPF contribution coming in every year to finance the budget deficit.  We have not even count in the reduce contribution from Petronas yet.

Beyond EPF, the other fund is much much smaller with a lot less cash flow.

Dreamer
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Unker,

We are talking about MGS, specifically foreigner's holding. And whether Zeti's comment is reasonable that EPF, PNB, Tabung Haji can cover for those maturing MGS.

As always, time frame is important. For MGS, you have to find out how much is the MGS maturing in the next 1 year (ie short term debt)

Then only you can put your comment in perspective. Without a time frame, you can only arrive at an opinion which is too macro and not meaningful

Again, time frame is important
trusol
post Sep 30 2015, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 30 2015, 07:07 PM)
Indonesia unveils measures aimed to stabilise rupiah
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...piah/?style=biz

Will M'sia follow suit?
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Unlikely.

Malaysia doesn't have a current account deficit problem. Indonesia has been having current account deficits since 2011.



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