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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Ramjade
post Sep 30 2015, 03:31 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 30 2015, 03:29 PM)
YES. A bank in Sgp does this for me. Vey, very convenient, and after I bought REITs or shares on the SGX, the bank just deducts from my bank account. Or I use margin to buy first when the price is right, then I pay-up the loaned amt after converting over from the USD when the time is right. I maximise my returns in this way.

One more advantage of doing this is my funds are out of this country already. If they should impose capital controls, I'm safe.
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What bank is that? All online? Do you need to be a priority customer for this kind of things?
AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 03:36 PM

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QUOTE(drake88 @ Sep 30 2015, 03:12 PM)
let me summarized your advice.

1. So for this moment SG reits is a good choice for good ROI with less risk involved.

2. Actually doesnt matter big amount or small amount .. we r talking about percentage...

3. So USD actually doesnt involve in this picture at all as so many ppl r talking about diversifying to USD.

Because i realised USD is not the best deal in the end of the day (Currently).
*
size does matter.

for any transaction involving fx, be it in equities or straight conversions, there are min costs, min brokerage fees, commissions, misc charges.

moreover, for larger amounts, u can be premium customer, get slightly better rates which will translate into significant sums.

e.g. for sgreits bought via local bank - every dividend received is subject to sgd10 (can be sgd8 or 15 depending on bank), irrespective of amount. so, if u have few shares and say, the div is sgd20, u already lost 50%. but if div is sgd 2000, it is 0.5% only.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 30 2015, 03:39 PM
Hansel
post Sep 30 2015, 03:42 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 30 2015, 02:29 PM)
If one really can hit the timing so accurately, might as well, put those "timing" in the stock market, can gain even more.

Mind that every exchange, there is spread incurred.
While in normal time or market relative calm time, currency fluctuation won't as big as recently one, spread will eat up portion of the gain in the process.

Mind that USD won't strengthen forever non-stop, USD will also feel the pressure if it surges too much, just like last time that was on Yen about many years ago.

This strategy looks good at current situation, but there is no single strategy works forever.
That's why most advice are on diversification asset to mitigate risk in between.

Never try to time the market.
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I agree that it's not possible to time the market. I wouldn't time the stock market directly, but with a very, very high possibility of the SGD weakening against the USD soon, I am confident I will win in this bet, at the very least.

And when I have won by getting more SGD from every unit of USD in-hand, I will wait fro the SGX to plunge (which in my opinion, will happen soon) and then buy-in to the SGX.

Another thing I'd like to mention here is though the USD may stand still for sometime, the RM has a very high tendency to drop against the 'standing' USD. Hence, it is again to my advantage to 'run away' from the RM as fast as I can.

I go back to my basic principle : I am betting that in the long term, the RM will still lose out to the SGD and the USD.
Hansel
post Sep 30 2015, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 30 2015, 03:36 PM)
size does matter.

for any transaction involving fx, be it in equities or straight conversions, there are min costs, min brokerage fees, commissions, misc charges.

moreover, for larger amounts, u can be premium customer, get slightly better rates which will translate into significant sums.

e.g. for sgreits bought via local bank - every dividend received is subject to sgd10 (can be sgd8 or 15 depending on bank), irrespective of amount. so, if u have few shares and say, the div is sgd20, u already lost 50%. but if div is sgd 2000, it is 0.5% only.
*
This, gentlemen,... is where the disadvantage lies when you buy via a local bank. If you buy SGX assets via a brokerage acct and a bank acct located inside Sgp, you will need to worry about the one-time commission of minimum $18 or 0.8% only. Dividends received is not subjected to any holdbacks, if you are an individual investor. Hence, lots of savings there.


cherroy
post Sep 30 2015, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 30 2015, 03:42 PM)
I agree that it's not possible to time the market. I wouldn't time the stock market directly, but with a very, very high possibility of the SGD weakening against the USD soon, I am confident I will win in this bet, at the very least.

And when I have won by getting more SGD from every unit of USD in-hand, I will wait fro the SGX to plunge (which in my opinion, will happen soon) and then buy-in to the SGX.

Another thing I'd like to mention here is though the USD may stand still for sometime, the RM has a very high tendency to drop against the 'standing' USD. Hence, it is again to my advantage to 'run away' from the RM as fast as I can.

I go back to my basic principle : I am betting that in the long term, the RM will still lose out to the SGD and the USD.
*
It depends how it is being viewed.
eg.
if we take 2008 as reference point, USD/RM was about 3.40 during that time

Now 2015, USD/RM is 4.40 today.

A person used 34K RM to exchange for 10k USD on 2008, as USD was paying virtually zero interest since 2008, now A person still has 10k USD, which is equivalent to RM44K today

So, A person gain RM10K by holding USD since 2008, now A has RM44k worth.

B put 34K in RM FD on 2008, which carry interest range from 3~4% in this period of time, if we takes average of 3.5%, 7 years x 3.5% compounding is about 27%.
34K x 27% = RM43.2K.

B person has RM43.2K vs A RM44K.

But on paper, A looks like the person "win" big, but in real fact, A only slight better off than B,
while if USD vs RM dropped below 4.30, A actually lose out to B.

Do pay consideration on this issue as well in term of comparison. That's the reason why I emphasis a lot of importance on the yield of every investment.
Ramjade
post Sep 30 2015, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 30 2015, 03:47 PM)
This, gentlemen,... is where the disadvantage lies when you buy via a local bank. If you buy SGX assets via a brokerage acct and a bank acct located inside Sgp, you will need to worry about the one-time commission of minimum $18 or 0.8% only. Dividends received is not subjected to any holdbacks, if you are an individual investor. Hence, lots of savings there.
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Hi,

Please share which bank and brokerage you use.

Thanks
AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 04:14 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 30 2015, 03:47 PM)
This, gentlemen,... is where the disadvantage lies when you buy via a local bank. If you buy SGX assets via a brokerage acct and a bank acct located inside Sgp, you will need to worry about the one-time commission of minimum $18 or 0.8% only. Dividends received is not subjected to any holdbacks, if you are an individual investor. Hence, lots of savings there.
*
this aspect, needless to say.

it's always cheapest to do "that" in "that" country.

it makes sense if one has a few million rm or sgd or usd.

worth the effort if u are talking about rm50k, rm100k?

like i say, size does matter.

prody
post Sep 30 2015, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 30 2015, 04:07 PM)
It depends how it is being viewed.
eg.
if we take 2008 as reference point, USD/RM was about 3.40 during that time

Now 2015, USD/RM is 4.40 today.

A person used 34K RM to exchange for 10k USD on 2008, as USD was paying virtually zero interest since 2008, now A person still has 10k USD, which is equivalent to RM44K today

So, A person gain RM10K by holding USD since 2008, now A has RM44k worth.

B put 34K in RM FD on 2008, which carry interest range from 3~4% in this period of time, if we takes average of 3.5%, 7 years x 3.5% compounding is about 27%.
34K x 27% = RM43.2K.

B person has RM43.2K vs A RM44K.

But on paper, A looks like the person "win" big, but in real fact, A only slight better off than B,
while if USD vs RM dropped below 4.30, A actually lose out to B.

Do pay consideration on this issue as well in term of comparison. That's the reason why I emphasis a lot of importance on the yield of every investment.
*
This is where timing comes into the picture.

The timing of both person A and person B was not ideal.

Person C would have won easily by keeping RM in an FD since 2008 and change it to US$ last year.



AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Sep 30 2015, 04:18 PM)
This is where timing comes into the picture.

The timing of both person A and person B was not ideal.

Person C would have won easily by keeping RM in an FD since 2008 and change it to US$ last year.
*
there is also D whose timing was... kept that money in usd since 2008 and then converted to rm last year. laugh.gif
prody
post Sep 30 2015, 04:32 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 30 2015, 04:28 PM)
there is also D whose timing was... kept that money in usd since 2008 and then converted to rm last year. laugh.gif
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Hope nobody is D. biggrin.gif
Showtime747
post Sep 30 2015, 04:37 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Sep 30 2015, 01:33 PM)
I don't think so.. maybe 6%+ only  hmm.gif
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When MGS 2% to 3+%, dividend is 6.75% mah. Now 4% to 5%, should touch 7% ?
Showtime747
post Sep 30 2015, 04:40 PM

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US$4.39577 below 4.40 end of last week shocking.gif
nexona88
post Sep 30 2015, 04:41 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 30 2015, 04:37 PM)
When MGS 2% to 3+%, dividend is 6.75% mah. Now 4% to 5%, should touch 7% ?
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lol like that also can ah? hmm.gif
Xander-G
post Sep 30 2015, 04:44 PM

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Why our currency oh why
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post Sep 30 2015, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Sep 30 2015, 04:18 PM)
This is where timing comes into the picture.

The timing of both person A and person B was not ideal.

Person C would have won easily by keeping RM in an FD since 2008 and change it to US$ last year.
*
if can so easily make money/predict the future, there won't be people in this forum anymore, will it?

everyone would be rich already
AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 05:12 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 30 2015, 04:40 PM)
US$4.39577 below 4.40 end of last week  shocking.gif
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that's good.

move too fast in one direction is way too disruptive, can lead to chaos.

better still, return to 4.25-4.30, people get a chance to sort things out, no panic.
drake88
post Sep 30 2015, 05:16 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 30 2015, 03:36 PM)
size does matter.

for any transaction involving fx, be it in equities or straight conversions, there are min costs, min brokerage fees, commissions, misc charges.

moreover, for larger amounts, u can be premium customer, get slightly better rates which will translate into significant sums.

e.g. for sgreits bought via local bank - every dividend received is subject to sgd10 (can be sgd8 or 15 depending on bank), irrespective of amount. so, if u have few shares and say, the div is sgd20, u already lost 50%. but if div is sgd 2000, it is 0.5% only.
*
Agree thumbup.gif . I think people that involve in this trade must be intellectual enough to assess this cost also. biggrin.gif
Hansel
post Sep 30 2015, 05:26 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 30 2015, 04:07 PM)
Hi,

Please share which bank and brokerage you use.

Thanks
*
Talk over at the 'SGX Counters' thread, bro,...
Showtime747
post Sep 30 2015, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 30 2015, 05:12 PM)
that's good.

move too fast in one direction is way too disruptive, can lead to chaos.

better still, return to 4.25-4.30, people get a chance to sort things out, no panic.
*
Ya, everything got up and down. Waiting for opportunity again at <4.30.

Really surprised RM is up with so many negative news
Hansel
post Sep 30 2015, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Sep 30 2015, 04:32 PM)
Hope nobody is D.  biggrin.gif
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I am D, but in the SGD context. NOt kept purely in cash, bought REITs and dividend stocks. So, quite okay on that front for me. smile.gif


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