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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 01:17 PM

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QUOTE(topearn @ Sep 30 2015, 12:23 PM)
What does China devaluation mean ? We can buy more RMB for RM1 ?
*
rmb has been "pegged" to usd until last month when they devalued.

you can see here the effects of the devaluation in aug:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=MYR&to=CNY&view=1Y

rm is weak, so it continues to lose to rmb after devaluation.

effect of next devaluation, who knows?
AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 01:24 PM

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like it or not, more of yr epf money is going to mgs with foreigners exiting.

QUOTE
Malaysia's bond market will not collapse as local funds will step in to fill the void and invest in the market, assures Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) Governor Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz, amid concerns over the weakening ringgit and economic slowdown. Despite foreign investors withdrawing their money out of the country, Zeti said this would not impact on the bond market much. "We have our own domestic institutional investors like EPF, PNB, Tabung Haji," she said, referring to retirement fund Employees Provident Fund, fund management company Permodalan Nasional Berhad and pilgrims fund Lembaga Tabung Haji. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...h.3Mevz5jI.dpuf


Showtime747
post Sep 30 2015, 01:31 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 30 2015, 01:24 PM)
like it or not, more of yr epf money is going to mgs with foreigners exiting.
*
Yield about 4-5%. Not bad for EPF. Last time only 2% to 3+%.

7% dividend in coming !!

Judging from how much my RM loss its value, must think positive a bit sweat.gif
drake88
post Sep 30 2015, 01:32 PM

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actually im curious ...majority of the advice given here is to change RM to USD.

But how many % USD will appreciate against RM ? Say expecting a minimum of 5%. USD have to appreciate by .22 cent (Approx) . Meaning to say everyone TP would be around 4.7 (At the safe side). Correction me if im wrong.

Like what Showtime747 always mentioned.. time frame time frame.. when do you expect it will go to 4.7 ?

And having saying that ... i guess plenty of investment vehicle can generate 5% ROI. Even a flexi account can give 4.8% interest every DAY in fact and it is rock solid sure with bare minimum risk.
nexona88
post Sep 30 2015, 01:33 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 30 2015, 01:31 PM)
Yield about 4-5%. Not bad for EPF. Last time only 2% to 3+%.

7% dividend in coming !!

Judging from how much my RM loss its value, must think positive a bit  sweat.gif
*
I don't think so.. maybe 6%+ only hmm.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 01:45 PM

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QUOTE(drake88 @ Sep 30 2015, 01:32 PM)
actually im curious ...majority of the advice given here is to change RM to USD.

But how many % USD will appreciate against RM ? Say expecting a minimum of 5%. USD have to appreciate by .22 cent (Approx) . Meaning to say everyone TP would be around 4.7 (At the safe side). Correction me if im wrong.

Like what Showtime747 always mentioned.. time frame time frame.. when do you expect it will go to 4.7 ?

And having saying that ... i guess plenty of investment vehicle can generate 5% ROI. Even a flexi account can give 4.8% interest every DAY in fact and it is rock solid sure with bare minimum risk.
*
quite right.

which is why it is pretty irrelevant if one is talking about small amounts of rm or a condition that it must be risk free like fd.

however, if one is open to some exposure to fx and/or equity, then usd and other fx becomes attractive.

imo, if we talk about fx exposure, regular cash returns and potential capital gain, sg reits are definitely a great choice.

easier to buy/sell, zero/near zero tax dividends.

even with sg reit prices correcting lately, one still obtained 7-8% return in sgd in the last 1 yr, >20% in rm.

that, of course, is not risk free like fd.

looking ahead, unknowns are: will biz conditions improve or deteriorate in sg, in msia?

will rm gain or lose more against the sgd?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 30 2015, 01:48 PM
cherroy
post Sep 30 2015, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(drake88 @ Sep 30 2015, 01:32 PM)
actually im curious ...majority of the advice given here is to change RM to USD.

But how many % USD will appreciate against RM ? Say expecting a minimum of 5%. USD have to appreciate by .22 cent (Approx) . Meaning to say everyone TP would be around 4.7 (At the safe side). Correction me if im wrong.

Like what Showtime747 always mentioned.. time frame time frame.. when do you expect it will go to 4.7 ?

And having saying that ... i guess plenty of investment vehicle can generate 5% ROI. Even a flexi account can give 4.8% interest every DAY in fact and it is rock solid sure with bare minimum risk.
*
Changing cash RM to USD and keep as cash is not that wise.

Majority posts are about exposure and diversification asset that denominated in other currencies.

Invest, diversification that have exposure to other currency /= changing cash RM to cash USD.

Flexi account is mitigate interest charging on your mortgages, not actually a "investment" that most talked about.
TSwil-i-am
post Sep 30 2015, 02:01 PM

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Singapore Dollar Set for Worst Quarter Since 2011 on Easing Bets
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-on-easing-bets

For those who luv SGD, b careful

Hansel
post Sep 30 2015, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 30 2015, 01:45 PM)
quite right.

which is why it is pretty irrelevant if one is talking about small amounts of rm or a condition that it must be risk free like fd.

however, if one is open to some exposure to fx and/or equity, then usd and other fx becomes attractive.

imo, if we talk about fx exposure, regular cash returns and potential capital gain, sg reits are definitely a great choice.

easier to buy/sell, zero/near zero tax dividends.

even with sg reit prices correcting lately, one still obtained 7-8% return in sgd in the last 1 yr, >20% in rm.

that, of course, is not risk free like fd.

looking ahead, unknowns are:  will biz conditions improve or deteriorate in sg, in msia?

will rm gain or lose more against the sgd?
*
The taxation against dividends earned in SG REITs is ZERO if you buy as an individual, or joint with a partner, both as individuals - CONFIRMED. This is the beauty of it till now.

In the short run, the SG economy will experience some downward move, possibly a technical recession might be announced by the MAS in the October Monetary Policy Meeting. But like I said earlier, we are in for the long term. Compared against Msia (only) and not against other countries, I will bet that SG will do better than Msia, hence the SGD will always perform better than the RM. We must have a long term view.

To capitulate on the best prices for REITs and to gain as much SGD as possible to buy REITs when the time comes, convert your funds into the USD now. When the SGD weakens against the USD, estimated to ne next month, then you can change your USD back to the SGD and get more of the SGD.

SG REITs are not risk-free, must select the rigt REITs.
Hansel
post Sep 30 2015, 02:04 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 30 2015, 02:01 PM)
Singapore Dollar Set for Worst Quarter Since 2011 on Easing Bets
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-on-easing-bets

For those who luv SGD, b careful
*
Yes, aware of the above. I have been advising everyone here to buy the USD now instead of the SGD.

BUT : look closely when the SGD weakens later, it seems to weaken against the USD, the AUD and other currencies, but NOT against the RM. That's what I noticed.
Hansel
post Sep 30 2015, 02:08 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 30 2015, 01:56 PM)
Changing cash RM to USD and keep as cash is not that wise.

Majority posts are about exposure and diversification asset that denominated in other currencies.

Invest, diversification that have exposure to other currency /= changing cash RM to cash USD.

Flexi account is mitigate interest charging on your mortgages, not actually a "investment" that most talked about.
*
Changing RM to the USD, hold the USD and wait for the SGD to weaken against the USD, finally changing the USD in-hand into the SGD to buy SG assets is, to me, very strategic at this moment.

We go one big round now and fiddle with three currencies to maximise gain.
Ramjade
post Sep 30 2015, 02:12 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 30 2015, 02:02 PM)
The taxation against dividends earned in SG REITs is ZERO if you buy as an individual, or joint with a partner, both as individuals - CONFIRMED. This is the beauty of it till now.

In the short run, the SG economy will experience some downward move, possibly a technical recession might be announced by the MAS in the October Monetary Policy Meeting. But like I said earlier, we are in for the long term. Compared against Msia (only) and not against other countries, I will bet that SG will do better than Msia, hence the SGD will always perform better than the RM. We must have a long term view.

To capitulate on the best prices for REITs and to gain as much SGD as possible to buy REITs when the time comes, convert your funds into the USD now. When the SGD weakens against the USD, estimated to ne next month, then you can change your USD back to the SGD and get more of the SGD.

SG REITs are not risk-free, must select the rigt REITs.
*
How do you change myr > usd > SGD? Through SG bank?
After getting SGD, how to buy? Online?

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Sep 30 2015, 02:14 PM
cherroy
post Sep 30 2015, 02:29 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 30 2015, 02:08 PM)
Changing RM to the USD, hold the USD and wait for the SGD to weaken against the USD, finally changing the USD in-hand into the SGD to buy SG assets is, to me, very strategic at this moment.

We go one big round now and fiddle with three currencies to maximise gain.
*
If one really can hit the timing so accurately, might as well, put those "timing" in the stock market, can gain even more.

Mind that every exchange, there is spread incurred.
While in normal time or market relative calm time, currency fluctuation won't as big as recently one, spread will eat up portion of the gain in the process.

Mind that USD won't strengthen forever non-stop, USD will also feel the pressure if it surges too much, just like last time that was on Yen about many years ago.

This strategy looks good at current situation, but there is no single strategy works forever.
That's why most advice are on diversification asset to mitigate risk in between.

Never try to time the market.



cherroy
post Sep 30 2015, 02:32 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 30 2015, 02:12 PM)
How do you change myr > usd > SGD? Through SG bank?
After getting SGD, how to buy?  Online?
*
Local banks also can.

Local banks do allow people to open foreign currency denominated current/FD account.

Just put the exchanged USD (not cash note) into USD foreign currency account, then change it to SGD currency account.

While if one has bought SG share or reit, just TT the SGD to the broker.

AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 02:33 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 30 2015, 02:29 PM)
If one really can hit the timing so accurately, might as well, put those "timing" in the stock market, can gain even more.

Mind that every exchange, there is spread incurred.
While in normal time or market relative calm time, currency fluctuation won't as big as recently one, spread will eat up portion of the gain in the process.

Mind that USD won't strengthen forever non-stop, USD will also feel the pressure if it surges too much, just like last time that was on Yen about many years ago.

This strategy looks good at current situation, but there is no single strategy works forever.
That's why most advice are on diversification asset to mitigate risk in between.

Never try to time the market.
*
thumbup.gif

i agree.

trying to time, trying to extract every possible advantage... that's elusive, exhaustive, costly and may even be counterproductive!

i prefer to keep things simple enough but know that i have diversified enough at least cost and least effort. tongue.gif
SUSsupersound
post Sep 30 2015, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(topearn @ Sep 29 2015, 11:24 PM)

*
Typo, should be rm4.50 tongue.gif
drake88
post Sep 30 2015, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 30 2015, 01:45 PM)
quite right.

which is why it is pretty irrelevant if one is talking about small amounts of rm or a condition that it must be risk free like fd.

however, if one is open to some exposure to fx and/or equity, then usd and other fx becomes attractive.

imo, if we talk about fx exposure, regular cash returns and potential capital gain, sg reits are definitely a great choice.

easier to buy/sell, zero/near zero tax dividends.

even with sg reit prices correcting lately, one still obtained 7-8% return in sgd in the last 1 yr, >20% in rm.

that, of course, is not risk free like fd.

looking ahead, unknowns are:  will biz conditions improve or deteriorate in sg, in msia?

will rm gain or lose more against the sgd?
*
let me summarized your advice.

1. So for this moment SG reits is a good choice for good ROI with less risk involved.

2. Actually doesnt matter big amount or small amount .. we r talking about percentage...

3. So USD actually doesnt involve in this picture at all as so many ppl r talking about diversifying to USD.

Because i realised USD is not the best deal in the end of the day (Currently).
Ramjade
post Sep 30 2015, 03:15 PM

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Actually the way I see it, USD is not good as they are the world's biggest debt country. So when the time comes to pay the interest, expect usd to tank again. But then again, the world uses usd as trade.
drake88
post Sep 30 2015, 03:18 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 30 2015, 01:56 PM)
Changing cash RM to USD and keep as cash is not that wise.

Majority posts are about exposure and diversification asset that denominated in other currencies.

Invest, diversification that have exposure to other currency /= changing cash RM to cash USD.

Flexi account is mitigate interest charging on your mortgages, not actually a "investment" that most talked about.
*
I think in the end of the day we r looking for profits and maximize our portfolio earning ? Correct?

Whats the reason of diversify ? Spread a person profile risk.

and whats the whole purpose of investment ? Gain profit.

Our intention is pretty straight forward, but the method of gaining the profit which is confusing to people.

I agree that flexi account is not an "investment" but if it contribute to your profile more than many investment vehicle. I dont see any reason why we should bring this method into consideration. Just incase anyone wanted to say ... parking cash in flexi acc is not EARNING ... but atleast it saves up alot of interest.

A penny save is a penny earn.

Hansel
post Sep 30 2015, 03:29 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 30 2015, 02:12 PM)
How do you change myr > usd > SGD? Through SG bank?
After getting SGD, how to buy?  Online?
*
YES. A bank in Sgp does this for me. Vey, very convenient, and after I bought REITs or shares on the SGX, the bank just deducts from my bank account. Or I use margin to buy first when the price is right, then I pay-up the loaned amt after converting over from the USD when the time is right. I maximise my returns in this way.

One more advantage of doing this is my funds are out of this country already. If they should impose capital controls, I'm safe.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Sep 30 2015, 03:30 PM

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