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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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SUSendau02
post Sep 23 2015, 04:23 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 22 2015, 10:58 AM)
Ya I agree with you. Direction is there (that malaysia is heading for a tough time), but claiming the economy is doomed and will never recover is too extreme. That is too negative.

As a good investor, we should not write any possibilities off and bet everything in 1 go. The world is so fluid. Everything is possible. By "Sai Lang" on an extreme belief, these extreme investors are putting all their money in a 1 way traffic. If the direction changes, they could not take advantage of changing tides

I suspect unker dreamer has made a "Sai Lang" bet a few years ago. He wants to see his decision was right to prove to himself he is not wrong. Hence his extreme view. Just my guess  tongue.gif
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He lost half of his saving many years ago.. dunno which bust was that.
Showtime747
post Sep 23 2015, 04:24 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Sep 23 2015, 01:47 PM)
HLIB Research: Ringgit to hit 4.00 level against USD by year-end, international reserves to stabilise rolleyes.gif

QUOTE
“We opine that the US Federal Reserves (US Fed) will go very careful on its rate lift off to ensure that growth momentum is not jeopardized. We expect the first US Fed lift off to be in the Dec FOMC meeting,” HLIB said.


As such, depreciation pressure on emerging market currencies, including the ringgit, will slow down in the short term, it added.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/h...?type=Corporate
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How come USA increase interest rate, depreciation pressure for EM currencies will slow down one ? If US interest rate increase, more demand for US$ --> US$ will appreciate. Other currencies will depreciate. According to textbook lah...

Macam-macam theory ada. Everything is possible tongue.gif
SUSendau02
post Sep 23 2015, 04:24 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 22 2015, 12:09 PM)
Showtime747 likes to ask other people to predict exact time but he never predict a precise time himself.
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Its like a bfm breakfast grill lar... u think julian n others know meh?
SUSendau02
post Sep 23 2015, 04:26 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 22 2015, 12:36 PM)
U.s is still the largest oil producer in the world.

Idling shale oil production doesn't take long to reactive, oil price is unlikely to sustain over $60.
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U have to wake china up.. their demand is low....
SUSendau02
post Sep 23 2015, 04:30 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 22 2015, 04:36 PM)
that is well known.

not only props but car loans, credit cards and personal loans for furniture, weddings, tv's, ipads, holidays.

and you keep hearing, "what's wrong with incr debt as long as gdp grows". sweat.gif

so, here we are - the rm falls hard when the wind blows.
as we speak, 4.300.
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I was waiting for lelong until my neck long liao
Showtime747
post Sep 23 2015, 04:34 PM

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QUOTE(endau02 @ Sep 23 2015, 04:23 PM)
He lost half of his saving many years ago.. dunno which bust was that.
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Is it ? I also forgot already tongue.gif
icemanfx
post Sep 23 2015, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(endau02 @ Sep 23 2015, 04:30 PM)
I was waiting for lelong until my neck long liao
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From NPL to foreclosure sale could take 12 to 24 months, hence, need to wait quite a while.

Showtime747
post Sep 23 2015, 05:08 PM

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Those who hold SDG or SGD denominated investments, there might be a risk coming that MAS might do further monetary easing

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/s...ary-easing-risk
AVFAN
post Sep 23 2015, 05:28 PM

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QUOTE(endau02 @ Sep 23 2015, 04:30 PM)
I was waiting for lelong until my neck long liao
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gdp still growing, full employment, low npl's.

empty houses never mind, owners can still pay interest.

not so soon. will have to be preceded by full yr long recession.

QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 23 2015, 05:08 PM)
Those who hold SDG or SGD denominated investments, there might be a risk coming that MAS might do further monetary easing

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/s...ary-easing-risk
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i expect some easing on top of the fall to 1.43 now.

that will drive domestic rates up, already seen by softening of reit prices lately.

can't hold forever if china, india, oz and soon taiwan cut rates or devalue.

conclusion: usd still best. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 23 2015, 05:29 PM
TSwil-i-am
post Sep 23 2015, 06:52 PM

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UOB: Malaysia appears to have sufficient reserves
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/u...icient-reserves

V r safe?
AVFAN
post Sep 23 2015, 07:04 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 23 2015, 06:52 PM)
UOB: Malaysia appears to have sufficient reserves
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/u...icient-reserves

V r safe?
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i like the word APPEARS. laugh.gif

seem; give the impression of being.
nexona88
post Sep 23 2015, 07:04 PM

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most of the so-called "expert" is giving positive report on MYR / Malaysia economy.

something cooking hmm.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Sep 23 2015, 07:21 PM

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Must give +ve reports
Otherwise another victim of TheEdge
SUSyolldddd
post Sep 23 2015, 07:46 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 23 2015, 06:52 PM)
UOB: Malaysia appears to have sufficient reserves
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/u...icient-reserves

V r safe?
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I said this before but people don't believe our reserve will keep us safe.
dreamer101
post Sep 23 2015, 09:43 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Sep 23 2015, 12:03 PM)
These goons do not understand how to manage a budget. That's why EVERy year they have to have a supplementary budget.
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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prophetjul,

1) Correction. Every year, they have 2 supplementary budgets for previous year's budget.

2) Some people believe that Malaysia has unlimited Oil Money. So, "Don't worry, be happy!!"

Dreamer
icemanfx
post Sep 24 2015, 01:44 AM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 23 2015, 09:43 PM)
prophetjul,

1) Correction.  Every year, they have 2 supplementary budgets for previous year's budget.

2) Some people believe that Malaysia has unlimited Oil Money.  So, "Don't worry, be happy!!"

Dreamer
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Gomen budget is basically window dressing exercise.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 24 2015, 05:37 AM
AVFAN
post Sep 24 2015, 02:28 AM

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QUOTE
23 Sep 2015 06:20 UTC - 23 Sep 2015 18:25 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.37650 low:4.34180 high:4.37943


tmrw is public holiday, will see on friday.
AVFAN
post Sep 24 2015, 02:42 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Sep 23 2015, 01:47 PM)
HLIB Research: Ringgit to hit 4.00 level against USD by year-end, international reserves to stabilise rolleyes.gif

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/h...?type=Corporate
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this alternative report about hlib is quite different:

QUOTE
KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit is forecast to reach the 3.55 to 4.20 level against the US dollar by the fourth quarter of this year, and hit 4.00 at year-end as the strength of the greenback will eventually taper off due the recent dovish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement.
Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) said the depreciation pressure on emerging currencies, including the ringgit, would ease in the short term.
The investment bank said the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would be very careful on its interest rates lift off to ensure that growth momentum was not jeopardised.
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...s-dollar-in-q4/


such low confidence from an ib, might as well say 3.0 to 5.0! laugh.gif
MGM
post Sep 24 2015, 07:27 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 24 2015, 02:42 AM)
this alternative report about hlib is quite different:
such low confidence from an ib, might as well say 3.0 to 5.0! laugh.gif
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If 3.55 to 4.20 then next week 1-10-15 onwards highest will be 4.20? Wa so positive. shakehead.gif

Oil also tends to trend upwards during winter in Northern Hemisphere.

This post has been edited by MGM: Sep 24 2015, 07:50 AM
AVFAN
post Sep 24 2015, 09:34 AM

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this may push the rm to 4.50 tmrw:

QUOTE
Do Malaysia, South Africa Deserve Junk? Moody's Model Says Yes

Six developing nations including Malaysia and South Africa deserve to follow Brazil into junk status, if credit-default-swaps traders are to be believed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-model-says-yes
user posted image


23 Sep 2015 01:30 UTC - 24 Sep 2015 01:30 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.38200 low:4.31336 high:4.38470


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