I read it as HLIB is so confident RM will appreciate back up to a best of 3.55. The worst also is 4.20. In any case, RM will strengthen in their view and the worst is over.

The most optimistic banker in the market now.

At least the banker has BALLS to predict a time frame - by the fourth quarter of this year. That is what I call a prediction. Come with a time frame so we can judge his prediction is right or wrong. Not an open-ended prediction. People is not afraid to make mistake

Unlike some negative and pessimistic balls-less people here who like to bull shit without a time frame. They will never be wrong and can keep BSing here forever

time frame confidence is totally negated by the fact that it was already 4.3x yesterday.

now, 4.38x!

man, this is bad...

oil price tends to soften in usa in winter - much much less driving.

should have at least this amendment/sup before yr end for this early ns spending of rm550 million:
http://www.theantdaily.com/Main/Is-Malaysi...0-mil-on-NS-2-0

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 24 2015, 09:48 AM

They are saying "by the forth quarter of this year" and "at year end". Let's give them benefit of the doubt and see if their bravery pays off by 31/12/2015.

I like they have the guts ! I have never deal with HL bank. Maybe I should try them soon

These people come out with predictions all the time.
Nobody really cares if they are wrong or right.

It's similar to a football pundit predicting a match score.

However, if somebody here makes a prediction that is wrong I'm pretty sure you'll remember them of it a few times at least.

It is Hong Leong Investment Bank. A big organisation. They put their reputation on the line in the open. At least they make a complete prediction which we can judge them within a time frame.

I do care IBs or stock brokers are right or wrong. Their opinions affect my decision. And yes, I will form an opinion on who is good at prediction as times go. At least I can judge them if they give a time frame.

For those who refuse to give a time frame while still love to give their prediction with rhetorics, I can't tell whether they are right or wrong ever. They could be right after all. But they have not balls or intention to prove themselves. That makes a debate very difficult and with no ending

BTW, what do you think of RM by this year end ? Just curious to know

i used to care about what they say but no more.

local ib's, bankers in general, developers... all of them are eternal optimists w/o much objectivity and always "afraid" of telling bad news until it is full blown.

can't blame them for wanting to avoid a fate like that of the edge.

It is nothing new for these big organizations to make predictions.

Ok, since you've formed an opinion already. Who is good at predictions and who is bad?

If nothing major changes I expect it to be lower than now.

I wonder how we ourselves can track this.

After a month of 2 time, IBs or analysts can write another report, due to fundamental deteriorating, world economy slowdown etc, then change the target price to other figure.

This is quite common happening in stock market.
Target price being revised many time in a year...

not sure what u mean...

today is public holiday, rm not traded directly, no bnm figures.

but credit swaps and fx forward contracts continue. u can see what's going on right now:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDMYR:CUR

i stopped putting a number to it.

like i said many times, as long as commodities prices stay low, usual gomen carefree spending, more bijan chronicles, putrajaya/bnm do nothing about int rates, it will just keep going in same direction. yes, for me, it's that simple.

I have a few IBs previously. Now I stick to 2. 1 in Malaysia and 1 in Singapore. This 2 bankers give me very good advice. They are not always optimistic. Sometimes, they ask me to do nothing. Although doing nothing will affect their business

I get weekly updates on major forex from them. Sometimes optimistic, sometimes perssimistic. I act on their advice and they are right more than they are wrong. So I trust them so far.

Ytday closing was 4.3465 as per BNM
Trading as usual for Asia Pacific currencies today
Our MYR depreciates the most by falling 1% to 4.3865

local reports - telling bad news may be seen by the powerful ones as act of saboatge, so i will not even read them.

given so much going on with usa fed, china economy, emerging markets fall, etc., i look for early hints from int'l reports.

I wonder how to calculate implied sovereign ratings based on credit-default-swaps and actual sovereign ratings.

Temporary setback, but fundamentals are AAs by BIg 3 rating companies ?
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/rating

this one, we don't know the details.

bankers/economists/rating agencies surely have their way of using models, possibly many models.

these are big orgs, brainy people with high pay, highly influential.

surely not hlib standard.

I have PMed you the good bankers I use now. I won't tell the bad ones

I also think it won't be better for RM. I will buy if it dips below 4.30 now. I expect RM to fall at least to 4.50 by the end of the year

Yeah, I don't even know where to check cds.

Of course. There is no prediction which is static. In fact, things could change in the next hour. Like a terrorist nukes New York. US$ will tumble. RM back to 3.30. Gold will soar

What I am saying is without a time frame, no prediction is meaningful. That is what I am saying to the pessimist and negative people here who avoided to make a meaningful prediction. They are just afraid to be wrong. While the professionals like IBs with much higher reputation is not afraid to do that in the open

I guess this is all about personal ego as big as a watermelon

These credit rating companies made a wrong judgement based on their wisdom , as their views are totally contradict on what reported on Mkini, certain blogs and social networking(FB, instagram, Twitter) .. why? Anyone know the reasons after including the political factor/element ? Be critical thinking mind. Have a great day.