Hope u are not talking down the country, so that u can buy it cheap later.

Like I said I believe our econ will be down but not out.

I believe properties will be more resilient than other assets becos of material cost. I am thinking if the econ is down, I will channel my liquid funds into properties in places popular with tourist for income. Mysia will be an attractive cheap place for foreign tourists esp Sporean. I am also waiting for the confirmation of HighSpeedRail project whether to make use of my land for tourism purposes.

MGM,

I will not invest in Malaysia until NEP is abolished. Why would I keep on sustaining THE GOVERNMENT and THE MAJORITY that forced my friends and families out of their jobs and businesses??

<<Like I said I believe our econ will be down but not out.>>

You are dreaming.. The country is getting worse every day. It will not get better. This had been going on for 40+ years.. It is too late..

Dreamer

I am semi retired. I am also trying to preserve wealth too. To achieve that, putting some of the assets in non-RM denomination is a must, not an option. Even rich Singaporean, Chinese, Japanese etc invest overseas.

While I don't think like unker dreamer that Malaysia will be doom and never recover (because I have not seen a country bankrupt and all their people died), but if all your income is from Malaysia, you will feel the pain of inflation. Worse still if you have kids looking for overseas education

We have not seen the effect of RM depreciation yet. The worse will be here in the next few months and everyone especially the poor will feel the pinch. How to avoid it ? The only way is to have foreign currency income.

Never too late. Especially now that US$ is taking a breather

Malaysian property is also getting a breather now and there may be some good opportunities. But I believe that only when economy takes a downturn when there are mass unemployment, then properties will go for cheap. So, be ready with a healthy balance sheet to seize the chance when recession comes.

For you, I think your priority is to shift some of your money to forex assets first. Make a portfolio rebalancing to mitigate the RM currency risk before you invest more into RM asset. That makes more sense for you

This is the Rm250k question isn't it? do you have 250K that you are willing to risk losing? if you have like Rm10K, what makes investing worth the time? suppose you had say Rm25K and you followed his strategy, you would have made all of Rm8600+ in three years. That's what, not even 3K a year? might as well get a part-time job right? if you have 250K and you make 86K in three years, that's something you can't make in a part-time job, and a good efficient way to deploy human and financial capital.

But if you have only like 10K or so.. or 25K or whatever.. why would you bother, given that you could have made so much more with so much less risk?

This post has been edited by wodenus: Sep 20 2015, 12:51 PM

Showtime, your advice is more palatable. Will look into all d good feedbacks from here.

This post has been edited by MGM: Sep 19 2015, 11:08 AM

this is the scary part.

i hv noticed some fast food chains and new eateries have gone with higher new prices, about +10%, a lot of others still at old price.

by end yr, everything will hv worked through the chain.

the only good news for consumers is oil/crude/petrol prices should remain low.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 19 2015, 03:57 PM

Whatever the gomen like to claim, the country is heavily relied on commodities (O&G and palm oil), hence MYR forex rate is tracking commodities price. Every country will go through the up, down, survive and won't bankrupt like a company or individual person as the gomen could print RM (inflation is another matter).

Given current gomen financial discipline, bloating opex and leakage, expect more and more tax will be imposed on the people. Effectively, businesses and employees will be working for the benefit of the gomen. Except those at the very top, few people on the street will have excess funds.

GDP growth in the last few years was partly fuelled by easy credit, a fallout of US QE. Given gomen austerity is unlikely, banks will be directed to buy more gomen bonds and consequently a reduction in market liquidity is not unexpected.

Gomen borrowing is currently limited by laws to % of GDP, GDP growth could be determined by gomen budget, and GDP will growth with gomen borrowing regardless.

Believe the country economic model is changing and will be different from now in a few years time.

Property is seen resilient because it is illiquid, price could take years to adjust.

Dude, don't make me swear here. People say SG got work opportunity, you go say SG econ go down. Then which place econ don't go down?!

i support you Ancient-Xing... dreamer seems more like a sour grape guy... see things with grey shades on

when u read his comments ... he is not giving advice... the way he put it is always in a condemn manner

let's recap...!

the usd strengthening or rm weakening started about a year ago, sometime in oct 2014 when rate was about 3.30.

on 6 jan 2015, a thread emerged on the subject:
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3461956

that day, rate had already moved to 3.56.

today, it is 4.20. peak day closing was 4.339 on 8 sep 2015.

so, from a year ago, -27%.
from jan, i.e. 9 months, -18%.

let's not worry about how right or wrong anyone has been or how clever or silly some comments were since jan but spend more time on what has been useful in protecting one's blood sweat and tears rm savings.

i recall some methods thrown out. how useful or useless have they been?

let's not bother with rm denominated methods as there is no fx involved.

my take over the last 1 year:

1. us stocks/etf's - on average, there is zero cap gain, maybe a small loss. plain fx gains, excl transaction costs.

2. sg stocks/reits - stocks probably lower but with fx gains; sg reits not much cap gain but dividends and fx gains.

3. gold - flat in usd, no dividends, fx gain less buy-sell spread.

4. dual currency/foreign currency accounts; usd or sgd cash - pure fx gains less buy-sell spread.

5. european, asian, emerging markets stocks, unit trusts, other funds - pls comment as i hv no idea.

6. what else?

the clear and present danger: all this is not going away anytime soon. it may be only the beginning of a long period of volatility and uncertainty. there is still the fed rate hike issue, china's slowing economy, commodities supercycle at bottom, oil price may fall further, continued currency wars, etc. plus our infamous local politics, of course.

i personally have done a bit of 1 and 2, quite glad i did that. wish i had done more.

for the young with zero savings or debt but plenty of energy, the world is there for you.

for the about to retire, pensioners or wheelchaired, what you have is all you got; lose it, get robbed or get devalued, no one will help you.

even bnm governor has advised us to "adjust".

it is a major and serious issue that impact all of us.

lastly, saying "other countries also affected" does not help, we all already know, no need to dwell on that.


so, pls comment and share yr experience, plans and what not!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 19 2015, 07:00 PM

Folks,

1) I would assume that you never heard of or experienced such a thing as Global Recession.

2) So, if you do not plan for a Global Recession, you must be seeing the world through a rose tinted glasses.

<<Then which place econ don't go down?!>>

3) He has ENOUGH. If he is diversified enough, he do not need to find a job in Singapore as the backup plan. Now, are you telling me that is not a GOOD ADVICE?? THINK!!

4) The correct answer should be a person should be protected regardless of which and how many economies gone down. But, DUMMY like YOU advice people to invest on ASx and put all their eggs into ONE basket. Why are you doing that??

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

Dreamer

I dont think anyone has experienced such a thing before...


yes, our economy as is everyones economy is linked.. If you study the currency graphs, you'll notice that every single government on planet earth is printing huge amounts of currency to pay off their debts.. utter madness and stupidity..

I've been reading alot and studying these issues. My conclusion is, three things will surely happen before the end of this decade.

1. Massive contraction of money supply. This has already begun.
2. Government debts will be declared as insolvent or interest as un-payable.
3. World-wide collapse of fiat currency and financial systems.

Now, this is not all doom and gloom scenario. In-fact, I see huge opportunity for all of us to become rich and wealthy. There will be lots of cheap and very good businesses to invest in, new ideas will be conceived, and people will benefit largely from having a less top heavy world where only the rich people survive..

But this interesting opportunity will not arise until our stupid governments stop pumping their useless fiat currency backed by worthless government bonds to out-spend debt.. It's ridiculous.. we are all effectively working for the government. A slave..

The writing is on the bloody wall.. our monetary system is due to collapse.. and that is a wonderful thing.. so please governments.. let it happen already so the world can rebuild and move on. Instead of pumping more of your useless money exacerbating the impending crash... the harder they rise, the harder they'll fall.

This post has been edited by the99percent1: Sep 19 2015, 09:42 PM

Good analysis if it is correct. Looks like mostly from fx gains.

Btw isn't d 2008 crisis considered as d Global Recession.?

This post has been edited by MGM: Sep 19 2015, 09:56 PM

tis thread give much info / new views.. but Please refrain from any name calling. it's really making tis thread like kopitiam standard.

others than that. good job

MGM,

Yes, but the impact on Malaysia is buffered by DEFICIT SPENDING by THE GOVERNMENT. That was financed by Oil Money. This time even Petronas is short on cash flow and has to spend its reserve. So, do not count Oil Money to bail Malaysia out this time.

Dreamer

Good analysis

Yea I agree that SGX stock is down and give -ve return YTD. But in RM term, it is still very good return.

Heck, on hindsight, it would be better just let the money sitting in sg bank and don't invest. Times changed. In low inflation period, keeping money is a good move as proven

You want unker to stop his style you might have better luck expecting RM back to 3.30

It's his way of expressing. Don't be too serious about him and you will be alright. You can always taruh him back when there is a chance. I did and it is quite fun

AVFAN,

You need to add one more item.

In Malaysia, for most Malaysians, 20+% of their gross income are put into EPF as a form of forced savings. Hence, by default, most Malaysians has most of their savings and investment invested to THE GOVERNMENT's bond and GLCs. If they do nothing else like invest or save in foreign currency, they will be highly expose to USD/RM exchange risk.

Dreamer