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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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wodenus
post Sep 18 2015, 10:55 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 18 2015, 08:36 AM)
That's why at any day there are many factors which affect the direction. Fundamental is 1 side, sentiment is also the other side. Most of the times the market cannot be reasoned. If it can be reasoned and follow a set of rules (like interest increase ---> this will happen), then economist and psychologist will be the richest person
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If it's random then people like Warren Buffett would not exist. People used to believe in Random Walk Theory until he proved them wrong.
wodenus
post Sep 18 2015, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 18 2015, 11:07 AM)
I would leave WB out ! WB himself can move mkts with his money. We don't have enough money to move mkts, hence, we need to depend on what we interpret of the mkts, and to go only into defensive sectors.
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You realize you are saying one person has enough money to move the entire US market? and keep moving it for 40 years?


This post has been edited by wodenus: Sep 18 2015, 11:11 AM
wodenus
post Sep 18 2015, 11:16 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 18 2015, 11:12 AM)
Hahah,... Angie Lau of Bloomberg just SAID THAT : the Feds are also concerned about the rest of the world now and not only the United States economy, unlike last year,... when Ben Bernanke was only for the US economy when he started the tapering.
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Ha incidentally that is why we are not in local markets much, it's too easy to move. I feel for the people who are caught at the wrong end when a Rm50K buy spikes the price (not to mention this increases short-term volatility and is not something a responsible investor should be doing.)

Can you imagine USD10K affecting the US market? smile.gif

This post has been edited by wodenus: Sep 18 2015, 11:20 AM
wodenus
post Sep 18 2015, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(towar @ Sep 18 2015, 11:17 AM)
WB is what some people call a "mover and shaker" . meaning many investors and funds are watching , and likely following , his every move. he is able to set trends in motion.
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He wasn't one 40 years ago.
wodenus
post Sep 18 2015, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(towar @ Sep 18 2015, 11:19 AM)
u were still sperm and ovum 40 years ago. whats your point  ?
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This is getting out of topic.. and besides how would you know my age?

wodenus
post Sep 18 2015, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 18 2015, 11:28 AM)
I agree. The only way to win if the mkt can hop up and down within short timeframes is by buying both sides of the spot (I contemplated this strategy once in the FKLI Vroom thread).

The problem is how short do we NEED the short timeframes to be for us to win. And that translates into whether the mkt will meet that required timeframe for us to win,... Hard to play-lar,...
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I guess that is your problem. My problem is how to invest in good companies at good prices without being irresponsible. It seems if you want to support good companies at good prices these days, you have to either kill small investors with short-term volatility, or become a traitor to your own country by investing outside of it.
wodenus
post Sep 19 2015, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(the99percent1 @ Sep 18 2015, 04:46 PM)
taxation, transfer fees, etc.. maybe 79k profit.. still decent over 2 years. question is.. u have RM250k lying around?
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This is the Rm250k question isn't it? do you have 250K that you are willing to risk losing? if you have like Rm10K, what makes investing worth the time? suppose you had say Rm25K and you followed his strategy, you would have made all of Rm8600+ in three years. That's what, not even 3K a year? might as well get a part-time job right? if you have 250K and you make 86K in three years, that's something you can't make in a part-time job, and a good efficient way to deploy human and financial capital.

But if you have only like 10K or so.. or 25K or whatever.. why would you bother, given that you could have made so much more with so much less risk?

This post has been edited by wodenus: Sep 20 2015, 12:51 PM
wodenus
post Sep 20 2015, 12:52 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 19 2015, 11:20 AM)
this is the scary part.

i hv noticed some fast food chains and new eateries have gone with higher new prices, about +10%, a lot of others still at old price.

by end yr, everything will hv worked through the chain.

the only good news for consumers is oil/crude/petrol prices should remain low.
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mamak stalls have increased by maybe 20%.. but then 20% is like Rm1 so meh smile.gif


wodenus
post Sep 20 2015, 12:54 PM

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QUOTE(pfesto @ Sep 20 2015, 12:46 AM)
So, what will happen then if #3 does occur?
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LOL I will bet you any amount you want, that this will not happen in our lifetimes smile.gif
wodenus
post Sep 24 2015, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 24 2015, 10:09 AM)
It is Hong Leong Investment Bank. A big organisation. They put their reputation on the line in the open. At least they make a complete prediction which we can judge them within a time frame.

I do care IBs or stock brokers are right or wrong. Their opinions affect my decision. And yes, I will form an opinion on who is good at prediction as times go. At least I can judge them if they give a time frame.

For those who refuse to give a time frame while still love to give their prediction with rhetorics, I can't tell whether they are right or wrong ever. They could be right after all. But they have not balls or intention to prove themselves. That makes a debate very difficult and with no ending

BTW, what do you think of RM by this year end ? Just curious to know
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Personally I think you should buy the RM when he finally gets it and steps down. So there's a prediction and a time frame smile.gif

wodenus
post Sep 24 2015, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 24 2015, 12:51 PM)
I look at it as a chance to convert more MYR into the SGD, since I am taking a longterm bet that Msia will still lose out to Sgp. I hoped they eased, just like in January this yr if my memory serves me correctly.
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In the long term yes, but the thing is, will it lose out to opportunity cost?
wodenus
post Sep 25 2015, 12:42 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 25 2015, 07:44 AM)
MGM,

Malaysia had Extra Oil Money in 1997/1998.  Now, Petronas has cash flow problem and need to use its own cash reserve.

Enjoy the show!!!

It will not be like any crashes that Malaysia had before.

Dreamer
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So what's your forecast, are we doomed yet? also, which other countries aren't down at this time? smile.gif


This post has been edited by wodenus: Sep 25 2015, 12:43 PM
wodenus
post Sep 25 2015, 12:53 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 25 2015, 12:50 PM)
U.S.A.
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S&P was down last night smile.gif

wodenus
post Oct 3 2015, 09:23 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 3 2015, 07:50 AM)
The difference between a successful investor and a fail one is the ability to identify opportunities and be ready to seize them. Of course some elements of risk is involved. No free lunch.

I experienced the AFC "the 1st RM depreciation disaster" in 97/98. I did not take up the opportunities then, solely because of my business which was unprepared and affected badly. I was caught by surprise. This round, I was much better prepared.

Whatever is happening to our RM and other currencies as we speak now is something huge and a phenomenon. If you think this 20 years once event is just a regular event, you are destined to be ordinary.

I expect the whole episode of this significant historical event to continue. The apex is yet to unfold. More to come.

In year 2035, When your children grow up and ask you what happened to the "2nd RM depreciation disaster" 20 years ago ? You can merely tell them to google and read in Wikipedia. For those who seized the opportunities, they can tell their real life experience and how they make (or lose) money. Much more interesting stories and real life experience which you could pass on to your children for learning

If you have not done something, or still cannot see the opportunities, you should start looking
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Do you remember what happened when the currency started appreciating?
wodenus
post Oct 3 2015, 09:33 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 3 2015, 09:29 PM)
What do you mean ?
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You were old enough after the peg was lifted to see the effect on local business? in fact what happened to companies that did business in foreign currencies when the peg was implemented?


This post has been edited by wodenus: Oct 3 2015, 09:35 PM
wodenus
post Oct 3 2015, 09:50 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 3 2015, 09:36 PM)
Looks like another troll to me  tongue.gif
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Wat.. I mean you were around in 97/98, I wasn't working then.. so I wanted to know what happened, since you said you have the experience and I don't. Why does that make me a troll?



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