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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 08:36 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 3 2015, 06:14 PM)
courtesy of showtime747's post on 23 aug 2015, i repost figures for 24 aug 2014 to 23 aug 2015, i.e. 1 yr.

i hv added by the side the approx 1 month changes - sep 3 to oct 2:

source:http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=MYR&to=RUB&view=1M

MYR/USD -31.8% -3.9%
MYR/HKD -31.8% -3.9%
MYR/RMB -26.9% -4.0%
MYR/GBP -25.1% -3.4%
MYR/TWD -21.0% -3.3%
MYR/THB -18.1% -2.5%
MYR/SGD -17.1% -3.2%
MYR/JPY -12.3% -4.3%
MYR/KRW -12.5% -5.6%
MYR/Eur -12.6% -3.9%
MYR/IDR -10.7% -0.2%
MYR/CAD -10.3% -4.7%
MYR/NZD -4.5% -5.5%
MYR/AUD -3.6% -4.7%
MYR/RUB +45.1% -6.1%
if one was reading those data on 23 aug and decided to do some fx thing, just about any major currency will have gained in just one month, except for indon rupiah.

rm continues to be the weakest currency on that list of most popular currencies for msian biz or personal activities.

clearly, the statement, "it's the strong usd, other currencies also very weak" does not hold water for this list.

here we are, data for you, up to you how to interpret, do something or do nothing.

i'll add full month oct changes in early nov.
*
thumbup.gif

Numbers speak. It is up to individual to act on the opportunities.

3%-6% a month is a very high return, but risk is also high. Only for the bold tongue.gif

icemanfx
post Oct 3 2015, 08:37 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 3 2015, 08:36 PM)
thumbup.gif

Numbers speak. It is up to individual to act on the opportunities.

3%-6% a month is a very high return, but risk is also high. Only for the bold  tongue.gif
*
Are you going to buy more USD or myr on Monday?


nexona88
post Oct 3 2015, 08:49 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 3 2015, 06:14 PM)
courtesy of showtime747's post on 23 aug 2015, i repost figures for 24 aug 2014 to 23 aug 2015, i.e. 1 yr.

i hv added by the side the approx 1 month changes - sep 3 to oct 2:

source:http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=MYR&to=RUB&view=1M

MYR/USD -31.8% -3.9%
MYR/HKD -31.8% -3.9%
MYR/RMB -26.9% -4.0%
MYR/GBP -25.1% -3.4%
MYR/TWD -21.0% -3.3%
MYR/THB -18.1% -2.5%
MYR/SGD -17.1% -3.2%
MYR/JPY -12.3% -4.3%
MYR/KRW -12.5% -5.6%
MYR/Eur -12.6% -3.9%
MYR/IDR -10.7% -0.2%
MYR/CAD -10.3% -4.7%
MYR/NZD -4.5% -5.5%
MYR/AUD -3.6% -4.7%
MYR/RUB +45.1% -6.1%
if one was reading those data on 23 aug and decided to do some fx thing, just about any major currency will have gained in just one month, except for indon rupiah.

rm continues to be the weakest currency on that list of most popular currencies for msian biz or personal activities.

clearly, the statement, "it's the strong usd, other currencies also very weak" does not hold water for this list.

here we are, data for you, up to you how to interpret, do something or do nothing.

i'll add full month oct changes in early nov.
*
thanks for sharing rclxms.gif flex.gif notworthy.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 08:54 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Oct 3 2015, 08:08 PM)
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...oint/?style=biz

<< No major sell-off

There were reports of a major sell-off taking place on Wednesday, as RM11bil worth of Government papers came up for renewal. But it did not happen.>>

Folks,

As per my understanding, that 11 billions MGS were taken up by local funds.  Not the foreigner.  Does anyone has information on that??

Thanks.

Dreamer
*
Unker,

On Wednesday, RM unusually appreciated to 4.39xx. It could be some inflow of funds for this take up. Maybe there are still some foreign funds subscribing to the MGS at such attractive yield of ~4.5%. Other possible reasons are illustrated in the article. No mention of local funds like EPF/PNB

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Oct 3 2015, 09:18 PM
Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 08:56 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Oct 3 2015, 08:37 PM)
Are you going to buy more USD or myr on Monday?
*
Why would you care ? Especially when you never share what you would do ?

If you are trolling, please head back to kopitiam this way ---> https://forum.lowyat.net/Kopitiam
wodenus
post Oct 3 2015, 09:23 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 3 2015, 07:50 AM)
The difference between a successful investor and a fail one is the ability to identify opportunities and be ready to seize them. Of course some elements of risk is involved. No free lunch.

I experienced the AFC "the 1st RM depreciation disaster" in 97/98. I did not take up the opportunities then, solely because of my business which was unprepared and affected badly. I was caught by surprise. This round, I was much better prepared.

Whatever is happening to our RM and other currencies as we speak now is something huge and a phenomenon. If you think this 20 years once event is just a regular event, you are destined to be ordinary.

I expect the whole episode of this significant historical event to continue. The apex is yet to unfold. More to come.

In year 2035, When your children grow up and ask you what happened to the "2nd RM depreciation disaster" 20 years ago ? You can merely tell them to google and read in Wikipedia. For those who seized the opportunities, they can tell their real life experience and how they make (or lose) money. Much more interesting stories and real life experience which you could pass on to your children for learning

If you have not done something, or still cannot see the opportunities, you should start looking
*
Do you remember what happened when the currency started appreciating?
Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 09:29 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Oct 3 2015, 09:23 PM)
Do you remember what happened when the currency started appreciating?
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What do you mean ?
wodenus
post Oct 3 2015, 09:33 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 3 2015, 09:29 PM)
What do you mean ?
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You were old enough after the peg was lifted to see the effect on local business? in fact what happened to companies that did business in foreign currencies when the peg was implemented?


This post has been edited by wodenus: Oct 3 2015, 09:35 PM
Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 09:36 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Oct 3 2015, 09:33 PM)
You were old enough after the peg was lifted to see the effect on local business? in fact what happened to companies that did business in foreign currencies when the peg was implemented?
*
Looks like another troll to me tongue.gif
wodenus
post Oct 3 2015, 09:50 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 3 2015, 09:36 PM)
Looks like another troll to me  tongue.gif
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Wat.. I mean you were around in 97/98, I wasn't working then.. so I wanted to know what happened, since you said you have the experience and I don't. Why does that make me a troll?


dreamer101
post Oct 3 2015, 10:44 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 3 2015, 08:54 PM)
Unker,

On Wednesday, RM unusually appreciated to 4.39xx. It could be some inflow of funds for this take up. Maybe there are still some foreign funds subscribing to the MGS at such attractive yield of ~4.5%. Other possible reasons are illustrated in the article. No mention of local funds like EPF/PNB
*
Showtime747,

On Wednesday aka 09/30, USA government was on the threat of being shut down due to budget fight. So, USD went down against all currencies. It is probably unrelated to MGS.

Dreamer


Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 11:53 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Oct 3 2015, 10:44 PM)
Showtime747,

On Wednesday aka 09/30, USA government was on the threat of being shut down due to budget fight.  So, USD went down against all currencies.  It is probably unrelated to MGS.

Dreamer
*
Could be also
AVFAN
post Oct 4 2015, 12:30 AM

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we know ytd, rm/usd is about 22% down.

now, if one put rm->usd money in us equities in jan 2015, the story isn't pretty either.

only a handful have positive returns in usd although there is a 22% "cushion" in rm terms.

mutual funds (equivalent to local unit trusts) lost >5%.

oil stocks lost >15%, energy >20%.

QUOTE
user posted image
Goldman Has 40 Stocks You Should Buy and 40 You Should Sell
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...you-should-sell



just curious, how much in general has local unit trusts lost jan-sep 2015? oil & gas stocks?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 4 2015, 12:34 AM
Showtime747
post Oct 4 2015, 09:02 AM

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USD to trend down ?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ans-weak-dollar
icemanfx
post Oct 4 2015, 10:44 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 4 2015, 09:02 AM)
Employment data is an indicator market look at.

I still believe USD on up trend, are you going to sell USD for myr tomorrow?

cherroy
post Oct 4 2015, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Oct 4 2015, 10:44 AM)
Employment data is an indicator market look at.

I still believe USD on up trend, are you going to sell USD for myr tomorrow?
*
US job data is pretty weak and Fed may shelf off the hike this year.

Treasuries was below 2% speaks all the story.

History always shows us whenever there is mass crowded trade area, better be cautious.
No single asset class booming forever.
Boom and burst (up and down) is always cyclical.

Previously
Banking stocks (prior before 2008)
Oil boom
Gold
Next is? USD?
Yes USD should have some strength left, but we don't know what will happen beyond then.

For long term investment, always beware of crowded trade area
AVFAN
post Oct 4 2015, 11:23 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 4 2015, 09:02 AM)
with latest dev, chances are usd will trend down until there is more news.

i take cue from statement below - euro and yen (and pound and swiss franc) will gain.

but rm, rmb, rupiah... will likely be flat until bigger news emerges.

i will not do rm->usd now but will not do usd->rm either.

rm->sgd still can, i think. i dun see mas doing much easing. tongue.gif

"Emerging markets are going nowhere and Europe and Japan are appreciating."

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 4 2015, 11:38 AM
icemanfx
post Oct 4 2015, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 4 2015, 11:12 AM)
US job data is pretty weak and Fed may shelf off the hike this year.

Treasuries was below 2% speaks all the story.

History always shows us whenever there is mass crowded trade area, better be cautious.
No single asset class booming forever.
Boom and burst (up and down) is always cyclical.

Previously
Banking stocks (prior before 2008)
Oil boom
Gold
Next is? USD?
Yes USD should have some strength left, but we don't know what will happen beyond then.

For long term investment, always beware of crowded trade area
*
US fundamentals is strong, current trend could persist for a few more years until commodities price clip up. As for bubble in the US, have yet to identify.

As for MYR, expect recession to kick in next year or so especially this October budget is unconvincing. What the country need is not more spending by gomen but tax cut. It is a proven that there is too much leakage in gomen budget, the economy will be more beneficial if spending is by joe the public.

Showtime747
post Oct 4 2015, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 4 2015, 11:23 AM)
with latest dev, chances are usd will trend down until there is more news.

i take cue from statement below - euro and yen (and pound and swiss franc) will gain.

but rm, rmb, rupiah... will likely be flat until bigger news emerges.

i will not do rm->usd now but will not do usd->rm either.

rm->sgd still can, i think. i dun see mas doing much easing. tongue.gif

"Emerging markets are going nowhere and Europe and Japan are appreciating."
*
Agree with you. USD doesn't look as good as a few weeks ago. Looks like no more steam

Whereas USD/RM tight range bound is good. I like it and have been betting this way since 2-3 weeks ago thumbup.gif


SUSPink Spider
post Oct 4 2015, 03:07 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 3 2015, 09:36 PM)
Looks like another troll to me  tongue.gif
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Congratz for reaching enlightenment

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