Hansel,

My gut feeling is Feds is going to raise rate. But, I really do not have a clear view as to when.

Dreamer

http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/30/investing/...unch/index.html

<< Saudi Arabia's mountain of oil money is shrinking.

After years of raking in cash from lofty prices, oil-producing countries are getting squeezed by the crash in crude oil prices.

Even mighty Saudi Arabia.

The cash crunch caused the OPEC leader to sell bonds over the summer to raise at least $4 billion. It was the first time Saudi Arabia tapped the bond markets in eight years. >>

Folks,

Interesting read. Even Saudi is having a cash crunch.

Enjoy the show!!

Dreamer

I always equate additional jobs added to unemployment claims. These two parameters are in an inverse relationship. The Unemployment Claims Data is read-out on a weekly basis.

Throughout the months, all the numbers are ding-donging up and down. So, I wouldn't really pay too much attention to some numbers. When US numbers are good, then Ms Yellen talks about conditions in China,... holding back rate hike again.

I'll just prepare myself for the real hike when it materialises. NO point waiting.

In your formula here : No inflation + slow job creation + no wages growth, you missed out another impt parameter being : unemployment claims. Unemployment claims comes out on a weekly basis. After 4 weeks of unemployment claims, I normally have a feeling how will the other three parameters in your equation fare.

Is 1MBD being unfairly blamed for the volatile ringgit and other woes?
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...lity/?style=biz

Wat is yo take?

Well,... MR Dreamer,... if the USD does weaken against our RM, it will giveme an opportunity window to convert more of my RM into the USD.I still have RM sitting in Msia, waiting to go out. And if the USD strengthens against all currencies, then I might convert some USDs into the SGDs to prepare to go into the REITs and dividend stocks.

Either way, I'll have something to do.

How low are u going to lower your MYR assets weightage? Or like dreamer, almost zero?

Hi MGM,... Having three assets in Msia, namely the EPF, my practice and my properties, which are all denominated in the RM, I think the diversification process adequeate for the Msia side.

What ever extra I make in my practice and well,... whatever I have in my ASX, I think, should be diverted outside already.

A bit more of opinions here : it takes time to sell away my props, hence, those props are in a dangerous position and might be confiscated by the Govern't if times turn out to be really bad. I see the pattern is emerging whereby our leaders are asking us to leave this country (my opinion), and being in the legal industry, if there is nothing we can do to refute these 'halau' statements against the minorities, then I think things are moving in a certain direction already.. I'll prepare myself for the day when our citizenship is revoked (which is, under the laws of accusations within the Sedition Act, the Govern't can impose this.)

My minor in University was Political Science. Hence, my decisions on how I am forced to take positions in my financial survivability.

I think our PM is a very learned man, he knows how to capitalize on all the advantages of the law in his favour. I respect him very much for his great knowledge and on his political maneuvers nationally and internationally, but not on his other traits. He is just too smart for us,... He can drive the minorities out of this country.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 5 2015, 10:18 AM

Till now, the STI is green. But the SGD is weakening against the USD, in spite of the Dollar Index dropping now. Sentiment in Sgo is not good, gents,... But I'm not converting my USD back into the SGD yet,... more to drop fro the SGD.

i agree, its the props investment that are inmobile and stuck at the moment....

On what grounds can they confiscate our properties and on what grounds they can revoke our citizenship? They can only do that if they find that we have crimes against the country. How are they going to confiscate all minority properties and their citizenship? The country will grind to a halt.

This guy is saying otherwise:

http://www.internationalman.com/articles/h...financial-order

i am pleased to see today what i expected - softening of usd, rise in stocks incl sgreit prices!

well, one swallow does not make a summer, we'll have to see the coming days, weeks and months.

Reit is sensitive to interest rate.

No rate hike or treasuries yield low, reit price up.

Sg reit, some already quite attractive.
Sgd even may soft due to potential easing measure, it won't plunge like RM one.

So if Sg reit is attractive and could provide stable yield one, I don't see why the need to wait and "time" it perfectly to squeeze every drop out of it.

Nevertheless, it is far from conclusion that rate hike may happen or not.
Always leave room for unpredictable event.

Now, USD is moving in tight range, while equities is "celebrating" potential no rate hike.

yep, the last i read, markets now price in 43% rate hike only in march 2016 and 100% in dec 2016.

so, it's equities party time - at least for a while until new indications emerge.

and yes, i am not timing but been adding bits of sg reits - to me, this one is the best bet among all options available - us etf's, sg stocks, bursa stocks, dci, unit trusts, gold, fx cash, etc...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 5 2015, 11:11 AM

4 Oct 2015 03:20 UTC - 5 Oct 2015 03:23 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.39719 low:4.39658 high:4.41250

Not much movement from 4.4140 on 2/10

Will the downturn for Spore properties affects SG-reits?

of course, it will.

but will be less and slower than stocks.

a matter of how bad and how long, if at all.

there is nothing absolutely safe.

only the confidence in where u put yr money.

When the chances to win in a timing opportunity is high, we should take it. I don't think anybody can say that the SG REITs might anytime soon turn around and shoot into the sky. Tendency is more for the SG REITs to plunge further.

I will wait as I accumulate more USDs to be converted into the SGD.

Today is a good day to convert my RM into the USD and park in Sgp.

Why SGD drop so much?

Is it time to sell or buy more?

It is not guaranteed that SG reit will plunge further as well.
Too many unpredictable event can occur.

In fact, if Sg adopted easing measure, reit may go higher, due to too much liquidity.
Easing, print money, bond yield lower. Bond yield lower, reit higher.

Instead of playing waiting game or "time" the market, it may be better off investing in trenches from time to time.
We never can assure it will go lower or not.
What if it never goes lower, then all cash may become sitting duck earn zero yield.

Current financial market is simply too unpredictable.