ya, these are challenging times.

hard to get it right, easy to get it wrong!

the good news today compared to say 15-20 yrs ago is there now are fairly simple and convenient ways to deal with the volatility in not just currencies but stocks, reits and fixed income. so, not like sitting ducks in 1997.

it will be an interesting next week to see how the usd, oil, bond and stock prices move - local and abroad.

i am expecting a flat-to-slightly weaker usd, mild gains in stocks and oil price.

will have to be very mindful about news and indications what fed will do or not do in the coming weeks.

in the midst of all that, volatility and surprises will surely be not lacking.

Good evening to all.

The jobs report comes out every Friday. So, if the report for next Friday, or the Friday after that improves,... everything will change again.

We need one of the Fed Governors to come out and say that the Feds is STILL ON-TRACK to raise the interest rate this year.... everything will change again.

The SG MAS Monetary Policy Statement will be announced on Oct 14th. or Oct 15th.... If there is a lowering of the GDP again, then Sgp will experience a technical recession. Will the S$NEER Band be lowered ?

At most, will go green on one day. Then will drop again after that. Sentiment in Sgp is not good, gentlemen,....

That's right ! Very long term. Sgp will still win,... I will continue to reap dividends as the quarters go by....

No way no rate hike. See my earlier post above on how things will change easily.

If SGD appreciates next week, I will wait. Sooner or later the SGD will depreciate against the USD again. When the feeling and the instinct is tight, I will convert over.

In the past 3 days in a row or so (until right now), 1 SGD = 3.050 MYR (pretty stable...) (But just 2 days earlier than that, 1 SGD = 3.080 MYR!)

Also 5 days ago or so, 1 USD = 4.48xx! But after that it was around 1 USD = 4.42xx & then currently 1 USD = 4.41xx - 4.40xx...

Source: Money-changer


As for gold: Just about 5 days ago it was around USD$114x (an ounce), then after that it suddenly slide down to about USD$110x (an ounce), & then currently it is at USD$113x (an ounce)


Bottom-line, MYR does not looked to be dropping continuously against the USD & SGD (at least in the past few days or so)

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This post has been edited by kEITh_22b: Oct 4 2015, 07:26 PM

Right ! So we play as long a term as we can. Then time is on our side. Anyway,... I made some predictions for next week in the last few postings above. Let's see !

Below is the exchange rate for SGD/MYR:-
31/12/2014 - 2.6471
31/3/2015 - 2.6923
30/6/2015 - 2.8032
30/9/2015 - 3.0890
2/10/2015 - 3.0779

Q1/15 -v- Q4/14 : +1.71%
Q2/15 -v- Q1/15 : +4.12%
Q3/15 -v- Q2/15 : +10.20%
2/10/15 -v- Q4/14 : +16.27%

From the above, SGD/MYR depreciate the most in Q3/15
Will SGD/MYR continue its uptrend in Q4/15?

that is true.

my fav way to get a quick idea: check out these bloomberg charts, can do plot usd vs many currencies for 1 month, 1 yr, 10 yrs...
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDMYR:CUR

if u do usd vs rm, brazilian real, mexican peso and south african rand, you will see:

.. in last 1 yr, rm has done worse than mexico and south africa but better than brazil
.. in last 1 mth, rm has done worse than all 3

i am curious why in last 1 month, rm did not recover as much as the other 3 with mexico and south africa actually strengthening vs usd...

brazil and msia share 3 things in common today - oil & gas exporter, massive corruption and head of gomen hugely unpopular.

but msia has one more dimension the other 3 don't have or not as much at the present time - racism and religious bigotry.

do not assume investors local or foreign are blind to those variables.

the rest, i leave it to you.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 4 2015, 08:23 PM

always leave some room for a surprise.

A sincere advice, never try to "time the market" when investing or for the purpose of diversification or whatever.

Often, market could "time" you back.

cherroy,

+100

Invest the WHOLE WORLD via ETF. Spread your eggs across many baskets. Then, a person do not need to know and worry which basket may not survive.

A person would need a few thousands in USD in order to do this. However, standard personal finance advice is that a person need to have 3 to 6 months of expense as emergency fund before investing.

Assuming household income = 2K per month (low estimate). 3 to 6 months = 6K to 12K in RM. So, a person would need to have 6K to 12K in RM before investing.

Assuming USD 2K minimum, that would mean around RM 9K to 10K.

Essentially, a person could have world wide diversification when they have approximately 15K to 22K in RM.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Oct 4 2015, 10:59 PM

Job data comes out every first Friday of every month, not every week.

A job data of 100~150K number won't prompt for Fed to raise rate.
The zeroing in wages growth further cool the rate hike significantly.

No wages growth - no inflation threat.

No inflation + slow job creation + no wages growth, Fed may find difficulty to raise rate, as if Fed did raise rate, and economy become sluggish afterwards, they may be blamed for taking a wrong move at a wrong timing.

Depends on strategy. If for long term investment, don't time the market. Maybe do some DCA over a period of time

If for trading or short time investment, timing is very important. The point of entry and exit determines the profit or loss.

For forex trading, I have not heard of long term investment.

For short term trading, best is riding the trend, not time tomorrow or next week will go down/up or not.

Most professional traders and successful traders often using trend/momentum as their best mate/strategy, not timing which day, which week or when, although timing always plays one of most crucial factor.

It is too "difficult" to time tomorrow or next week will go down or up, or to "time" whatever level is peak or bottom.

There is always a target and timing when doing trading to efficiently utilise the limited resources. The strategies depends on different trader. "Take profit" or "cut loss" is a frequent affairs and they response very quick to news. Like those people in the forex thread or FKLI thread

Heck, there is even "day" trader who go in and out on the same day

Your strategy is more towards long term fundamental investment

HI AV,... tq,... having aenues for surprises is a healthy move for invenstments,... no doubt. I believed my tool for 'being ready for suprises' has already been covered by my long term plan for the SGD vs the MYR. So, even if I am wrong in that the Feds must need to hike rates, the chance for the SGD to appreciate against the MYR is still higher when given enough chance and time.

At this time, my conviction that the Feds really have no choice but to hike rates would be shared by many, if not all those reputable quarters out there.

So,... I'll still buy on the dips when between the USD and the MYR. And my view is still the USD will strengthen against all currencies, including the sGD for me to accumulate more SGD this month. We'll know by the coming few days,.... as the MAS MPS Meeting approaches.

Well,...I'll put forward a 'time the mkt' action that I took back in 2008/9. IT is still standing till today and till now, in spite of this downturn, my coungers have not dropped back to my Buy prices at the 2008/9 levels. This goes to show that it is possible to time the mkt too, no doubt it cannot be repeated successively continuously.

As it is till today, the mkt has NOT 'timed' me back, my dividends collected have been uncountable, and my margin-of-safety in the stock prices is far enough to gove me comfort.

World's top trader says US% set to weaken
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...aken/?style=biz

Get ready for appreciation...

wil-i-am,

The article said that USD is going to weaken against Yen and Euro. So, this may or may not help RM.

Dreamer