Been talking to a FPSO captain. O&G demand is low and the production keep going.. so.. storage increase.. probably still need long time to recover..

btw, palm oil storage also increasing..

This post has been edited by holybo: Sep 10 2015, 07:15 PM

Now got tips since gark is back...

Last year also he disappear around May/Jun. I think he goes to jungle. He burns down forest. We get the haze here. Then he comes back in Sep/Oct.

Been really busy with work, Boon gor! Haven't surf here for so long. Hope all has been well from your side

Yo bro! You talking about me?

I can't even remember when I disappeared. Lol.

No, I talking about gark.

Yep. Totally aware. Still holding for long term. Main support for me will be at 0.23 as it is the private placement price for the new major shareholders.

Key thing for me now is that the they r cash rich from funds from private placement n warrants exercise n r moving towards executing their major projects. Revenue n earnings growth will be few quarters/years later.

Btw, Did you trade between the recent low of 0.18 to the current price now of 0.245?

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Sep 11 2015, 06:48 AM

Good that you are busy with work....
Market outside not so rosy....

I am ok as usual. Thanks!

Hehe... I am just trying to poke you nia.

Ok. I did not trade this stock.
I am extremely selective with my trading...
and I won't simply trade stocks.


Thanks for sharing your opinion....
Some 3 sen comments from me.

One.
I am in the market long enough to know that one should NOT rely on support indicated by placement & warrant conversion prices....
it's never totally reliable.....
be in the market long enough and I am pretty sure you would agree with me.

Yes, I can understand the thought of reasoning....
The cost of 'those' shares are 23 sen...
why would anyone sell below cost?

However, it's the bloody market...
anything can happen one...

for example...
as in MPAY's case...
if the 23 sen is the main support...
then why did it trade so many days below 23 sen?
and why did it plunge to as low as 18 sen?
if 23 sen was the main support... it should NOT have happen....

and anyway... in TRADING...
support is just support...
so is resistance...
it's always there to be broken.....
why is why we will always have breakouts and breakdowns, new highs, new lows constantly in the market....
and this is why I for one...
would never totally rely on supports and resistances....
I might have a peep at where the S&R is...
but that's about it.... (ps: again... this is my own trading poison la... you do not have to accept my poison)

now MPAY as a company....
sorry but I do not see it up...

Look at it 'as a company' perspective...
take the stock out of the company....
look at the company's performances the recent year....

LOST money in 2011 --- lost 1.3 million
made 122 THOUSAND in 2012.
made 941 THOUSAND in 2013.
made 1.4 MILLION in 2014.

looks improving since 2011 but the profit FIGURES are so mall.
1.4 million wor...
how to get serious with a company just making 1.4 million in a year?

and with the recent profit report, trailing profits indicates 728 THOUSAND profit for 2015....
errr..... one million profit also don't have....

how?
and with all the share exercises, total shares is now 710 million....
valuing the company at a incredible valuation of 171 million (based on 24.5 sen)!!!

insanely valued for a company that is hardly making any money...

sorry but that's how I see it...

and if I have to describe it as whole...
I would say...
it's simply way over rated...

Haha Boon must have made big bucks from the play... nice.

USD is alredy reaching euphoria point... how much longer it will last?

Need to find new things to play hehe

Not only SKP.. a few others too...

Both of these are at through values...

Oil is already way below the replacement cost of finding new oil, unless there are other fuel to replace it .. sooner or later it will be up.

On the production scale, it is artificially inflated by OPEC to counter shale oil.. it has worked for a while. How much pain can OPEC take further and how long.. Saudi has already issued their first sovereign bond.. so they are burning through their reserves. Saudi also have 10,000 troops fighting in a proxy war in Yemen, and war cost a lot of money.

And shale oil has gone back to tapping their most profitable oil patch to survive..while abandoning their marginal patches, those shale oil drillers have no choice but to pump more to counter the low price. How long before they run out of easy pickings and need to drill more well. Rig count is down 60%, but production volume is staying put for now..and only recently have a small reduction. Most US drillers credit rating is already rated at junk.. how long before they too run out of financing?

And not all oil companies is suffering.. in fact Russian oil companies are increasing their profit. How is the wonders of Russia. Oil tax in Russia is based on the oil price and also minus investment cost, below certain price the tax can be negative. This is more or less 'subsidized' by the government. So Russian drillers enjoy the same profit they are getting with $40 oil similar to $100 oils...

I bet that the shale oil drillers will be first to 'blink' in this stare down...

And palm oil.. it follows the oil trend. But it is not that bad, cause even with such low price, most planters are still profitable.

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 11 2015, 10:45 AM

Unker, TNB moving upward liao

Still small small movement..

Wait for bigger ones..

today still red day...big cap like TNB not red consider good liao

I got say I got meh?

Err... USD?
let me say this...
that currency is way over rated....
LOL!
come on....
their economy is still a pile of shit...
so why is their currency so strong?



anyway, I reckon we (or the whole world) is still paying for the sins of US sub prime crimes....
all the helicopter money spun out from the low interest rates have left the US Fed in an extremely difficult situation....
hold the rates.... susah...
increase rates... lagi susah....

anyway the point for me...is not how much longer it can last....
( I might be wrong ) but it's just that I feel the ringgit could weaken much, much further.....

which is why I feel the USD strength AGAINST the ringgit could continue..........................


now for Hevea...
I see a lot of strong points....
the main one stems from it's 2 core products...
the partical boards and RTA

the RTA business strengthened just like other companies like Homer etc etc...
the particle boards business had been poor the past couple of years...

but as mentioned in the posting post #531..
a massive turnaround happened for the particle boards business...
just like evergreen fibreboard (though not exactly the same as it's fibreboard and not particle borad) and also Mieco Chipboard....
the business is booming (can google about the comeback in US housing market and the booming particle board business) ....

so in a sense...
there's 2 area of massive profit growth for Hevea...

which is why the current first half fiscal year profits have almost doubled.... (30 million vs 15.7 million)
it's like 2 in one...
booming furniture business + booming particle board business....

and with the 'strength' in the USD....
profits should even increase further.....

it's like a natural/'safe' hedge against the weak ringgit...

and of course there's other positives...

lol....

shit I am sounding like a snake oil salesman selling first class ticket to Holland....

Abg boon can I try? hehe:

Pros
1. 3.5bil orderbook aerospace products orderbook
2. HDD testing industry showing signs of recovery
3. USD Play - 10% Increase in USD/MYR will increase Net Profit by about 10%

Cons
1. HDD testing equipment manufacturing contributes about 40% of revenue. Recent quarters improvement was mainly supported by improvement from this segment. I think HDD is a sunset industry and the revenue may not be sustainable

Fair Value
EPS = 15cents per Q * 4 = 60cents x PE 10 = RM6

This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Sep 11 2015, 12:29 PM

Ini abang give tipsy again......

For point 2, I think you can refer to the profits from the HDD players..

The profits from next few quarters should be leng chai....




Maybe gark can help.

It is true that the rig count is down. But the oil production still stay put and demand still do not increase much. Now people keep storing oils (1-2 mil barrels per day).. In addition, we need the oil companies die FASTER so that the industry reshuffle, global demand pick up significantly / disaster affect significant production before oil price have significant move.

Otherwise, oil price still need to wait.. I believe USD 60 for WTI should be the cap in a few years. When the oil price go back to USD 60, shale oil operators will start again. Furthermore, shale oil manage to cut production cost to 40-50USD.

Just my 0.0001 cent thought

I don't even bother to average down on my O&G stocks now. But in a few blue chips during the correction. Making some good profit now

Year end window dressing coming too

Can't understand this.. what is a good profit if you can't spend it