Traders Kopitiam! V8
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 Jul 27 2015, 02:10 PM
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#1
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang 
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 27 2015, 01:57 PM) Cos....Ah Koon no buy ma... ah boon gor recently got any new tipsy?. furniture and rubber getting expensive liao and cash rotting in fd :/. pmetal in my radar but alu price very jialat.  This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Jul 27 2015, 02:14 PM |
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Jul 27 2015, 03:19 PM
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#2
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 27 2015, 02:18 PM) Lol! your sushi and homer fishes very hot now... no new fishes ah bang?Me jual ikan...no tips. |
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Aug 3 2015, 04:12 PM
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#3
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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gadang ada bagus? seems like profit for capital city coming in liao the next few q punya profit gonna be good. but downside is the weak property market sentiment especially iskandar
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Aug 12 2015, 02:34 PM
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#4
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Aug 12 2015, 11:12 AM) Any chartist comment ? Will it go to 15xx or even 14xx ? alex say going 1200 http://nexttrade.blogspot.sg/2015/08/marke...0-2015.html?m=1 |
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Aug 12 2015, 06:52 PM
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#5
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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hevea laosai. bought blindly but realised that usd strengthening is no good coz got sizeable debt in usd
my current watchlist is latitud magni prlexus bjauto. This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Aug 12 2015, 07:17 PM |
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Aug 13 2015, 12:04 PM
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#6
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 13 2015, 09:31 AM) Errr... I read Hevea's notes before... so I am not sure about your point..... agree i should have read the quarter result notes earlier. sold all as now i don't see a clear sign that it can sustain the latest q performance midst weaking of rm.For me, I would look at the financial cost stated in the income statement in the company quarterlies... I would look at the size and the trend... for example, you look at airasia... last showed it paid 151 million in financial cost... last year same period it paid 118 million.... what does it say? Heveaboard... last quartely showed financial cost is 629k (thousand hor... not millions) last year same period it paid 1.370 million. what does it say? and then I would also note at the size of the total debt... is it increasing or decreasing? anyway you should have noted from Hevea quarterlies.... The profit before taxation ("PBT") of the Group for the reporting quarter was RM14.60 million, an increase of RM6.81 million or 87.46 % as compared with the corresponding quarter in 2014. The much higher PBT was contributed mainly by the improved performance in the particleboard sector, despite being impacted by unrealised exchange loss of RM2.97 million from the translation of the USD denominated term loan edit: copied the wrong one.... Particleboard Manufacturing Sector The revenue reported for this period increased by RM10.39 million or 27.9 % as compared to the same period last year. The higher revenue achieved was due to the achievement of higher volume and higher average selling price from sales of higher grade, value added products and strengthening of USD during this reporting period. The profit before tax reported for this period was RM 7.62 million as compared to RM 2.05 million in 2014, an increase of RM5.57 million or 271.26% despite being impacted by unrealised exchange loss of RM2.97 million from the translation of the USD denominated term loan. A lot of good performing companies stocks... declined significantly recently.... you just have to ask if it is the stock or if it is the market? ps: regarding Alex comments... if you are not aware.... many like to refer to his comments and even charts... but it's so ironic... cos if doesn't come true... he get whacked..... a lot... even in this forum  so know know la..... pohuat is not a net benefiter of weaking rm as well. only homeriz and latitud wld benefit, but homer is already at pe12 so no go. lat I believe still got room, currently only pe9. fair pe shld be 10. planning to collect ah lat at lower lvls. based on past experience alex de predictions always masuk longkang de. just take it with a pinch of salt. I'm still hoping the market can weaken to at least 1500. at current level still nothing much to shop. This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Aug 13 2015, 12:10 PM |
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Aug 13 2015, 12:53 PM
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#7
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 13 2015, 12:20 PM) You think it cannot sustain? heveas annual report says usd strengthing will decrease net profit. so I believe the recent performance jump is due to increased sales volume but not net margin. since this jump was not observed in past quarters im not confident it can repeat the performance in the coming quartersYou sure you read the notes? anyway interesting... and thanks for sharing your different view  I do not like to buy just because the market is at a lower level. (surely there's got to be a better reason to TRADE a stock, yes? ) I believe this is such a fallacy to buy a stock just cos the stock price has fallen.... anyway, different people, different posion. my point on Alex remains.... it's not whether a pinch of salt.... it's more of understanding his points of view (which may or may not be correct.... I say cos I have witnessed silly postings blaming him on his views.... blaming others when lose money cos one traded based on others opinion is plain silly. |
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Aug 13 2015, 01:39 PM
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#8
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 13 2015, 01:20 PM) Yes, it has an impact BUT if you read the last quarterlies on the SEGMENTAL reporting you should be able to see. good point. thanks abg boon for the pointer. will go study the reports and other board stocks you mentioned.1. When did profits started improving for Hevea... http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/223900.jsp go to segmental... keep track on partical boards and RTA profits... 2. See the next quarterly... http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/229175.jsp The profit before tax reported for this period was RM1.29 million as compared to loss before tax of RM0.35 million, an increase of RM1.64 million or 472%. This was achieved despite an unrealized exchange loss of RM4.68 million in this reporting period as compared to an unrealized exchange gain of RM4.49 million in the corresponding period in 2012. The unrealized exchange gain or losses arises from the translation of the USD denominated loan compare to the one I posted earlier.... (ie http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/262473.jsp ) what did you notice? the exchange loss decreased from 4.68 million to 2.97 million (last quarter) correct me if I am not correct.... cos that info would have suggested that exchange losses DECREASED despite the STRENGTHENING USD. correct? and the next few quarterlies tells the same tale... Profits increased more and more.... and mind you... this as we know.... is on the back of a strengthening USD..... so I might be wrong again.... but it suggests to me... that despite the exchange losses, Hevea is able to produce better profits on the back of a strengthening US... this is my opinion laaa... and if take the time and compare... there is one huge significant difference... which is..........................? The RTA business slumped..... almost half the profit... BUT.... the particle board business..... has now jumped from losses to 7.6 million profit. that's the marked difference... now... particle boards... (yeah... I know.... not exactly the same... ie particle board , chipboard and fibre board is not same) where the happy family? what other 'board' stock is listed? Evergreen and Mieco. Look at the recent profits trend? what is it suggesting? my 3 sen opinion la... and please I hope no dumb dumb will so irritating and turn my 3 sen opinions as stock tips.  This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Aug 13 2015, 01:40 PM |
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Aug 14 2015, 12:25 AM
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#9
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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Quick look on pg5 of the latest Q notes, comparing 31/03/2015 vs 31/03/2014:
Interest expense: 484 vs 1,334 Net realized foreign exchange (gain)/loss: (2,873) vs (98) Net unrealized foreign exchange (gain)/loss: 2,967 vs (212) Interest expense reduced and the forex has a negligible effect on financial cost despite strengthening of USD. Does this contradicts the forex sensitivity analysis in their 2014 annual report? Anyway seems like got chance! This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Aug 14 2015, 12:26 AM |
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Aug 15 2015, 12:33 AM
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#10
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Aug 14 2015, 01:54 PM) a friend suggested sell all small-mid caps, move to blue chips buy ong stocks. keep inside freezer for few years sure ong.can jalan? |
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Aug 15 2015, 12:38 AM
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#11
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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QUOTE(KVReninem @ Aug 15 2015, 12:36 AM)  good idea. havent bottom yet  This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Aug 15 2015, 12:38 AM |
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Aug 16 2015, 09:26 PM
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#12
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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Did some study on Tenaga:
The recent drop in price has wiped of 22.9b in market cap, about 1.27x of 1MDB 18b assets (12b assets + 6b debt) Pros 1. Increase in USD is negiligble - 10% increase in USD decreases <1% profit Cons 1. Not much growth catalyst - coal/fuel cost variances are pass back to consumer via ICPT. Strong earnings in 1H15 was just one-off event 2. Assuming that TNB is going to get an unlikely 50% discount for 1MDB assets, net gearing will already double from 30% to 60% Assuming a historical PE of 10, EPS of 115cents (FY14) and CAGR of 10% Fair value = 10*115*1.10 = RM11.40 This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Aug 16 2015, 11:35 PM |
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Aug 16 2015, 11:35 PM
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#13
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 16 2015, 10:24 PM) Not bad! Good question. Although price drop was triggered by 1MDB sentiment, the drop can be rationalised by the profit adjustment due to ICPT recognition. So it doesn't really means that the is stock undervalued or the market is overreacting. Have edited my earlier post. Question: Why point 1 is considered a PRO? Are we deep taught that whatever has fallen equals value equals good?  I also look at Gadang as I was puzzled why the price is depressed despite profit increased 50% QOQ. 12MFY15 Results: Construction - Revenue: 449585 Profit: 49145 Property - Revenue: 120523, Profit: 33666 While property contributes 40% to the bottom line, I was surprised to read in the 2014 AR (Published in October 2014) that the unbilled property sales is only 150mil. Does this mean that the revenue from property will taper off in near future and affect the overall profit? This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Aug 16 2015, 11:47 PM |
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Aug 18 2015, 09:26 PM
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#14
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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Can promote BJAUTO abit? Price recently drop 20% from RM2.50 to RM2.00:
Pros 1. Mazda targets middle/high income group which are less affected by rising living cost 2. Upcoming launches of CX-3 SUV and MX-5 Cons 1. Weakening currency might impact domestic spending power/sales 2. Vincent Tan's counter 3. Strengthening of JPY/MYR might reduce profit margin. However effect may be negligible according to AR2014 : Increase/(Decrease) to profit net of tax JPY/MYR – Strengthened by 5%: 741,000 – Weakened by 5% (741,000) USD/PHP – Strengthened by 5% 91,000 – Weakened by 5% (91,000) Fair Value Historical PE 12 x 17 EPS (FY14) x 20%CAGR = RM2.45 Take note it has broken below SMA200, downtrend line is at around RM2.40 This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Aug 18 2015, 09:32 PM |
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Sep 2 2015, 10:00 PM
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#15
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 1 2015, 04:46 PM) How is your assessment of hevea after its results? QUOTE QUARTERLY REPORT – SECOND FINANCIAL QUARTER ENDED 30 JUNE 2015 Pg2 of Notes: Particleboard Manufacturing Sector The profit before tax reported for this period was RM 18.53 million as compared to RM 6.45 million in 2014, an increase of RM12.08 million or 187% due mainly to higher revenue and factors described above despite being impacted by unrealised exchange loss of RM3.68 million from the translation of the USD denominated term loan. Seems like got chance abg Boon! EPS 15 (adjusted after split) x PE10 = RM1.50 for FY15 boleh ka? But I never sapu using lorry lah. Scared later go Holland (or China) haha. This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Sep 2 2015, 10:01 PM |
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Sep 4 2015, 08:29 PM
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#16
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 3 2015, 04:56 PM) I saw ........................... abg boon mata tajam. haha was reli planning to buy more but mana tau...heeeheeee |
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Sep 5 2015, 10:14 AM
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#17
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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QUOTE(spring onion @ Sep 4 2015, 11:53 PM) there is the third type: people who earn money like boon SAM boleh pakai ka. they say want to hit 1bil revenue since years ago but past few years still at 500k mark. lai lai want tipsy? high risk tips: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...r-lrt-3-project stock in focus: GKENT, MRCB medium risk tips: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...m-japan-in-fy15 stock in focus: Hevea low risk tips: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/04/...N0R500520150904 stock in focus: Gtronic, SAM, VItrox, Inari *not responsible for any loses for the above advise  I do only own hevea currently |
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Sep 11 2015, 12:29 PM
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#18
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 5 2015, 10:36 AM) SAM ah? Abg boon can I try? hehe:heeeeheeee...... Pros 1. 3.5bil orderbook aerospace products orderbook 2. HDD testing industry showing signs of recovery 3. USD Play - 10% Increase in USD/MYR will increase Net Profit by about 10% Cons 1. HDD testing equipment manufacturing contributes about 40% of revenue. Recent quarters improvement was mainly supported by improvement from this segment. I think HDD is a sunset industry and the revenue may not be sustainable Fair Value EPS = 15cents per Q * 4 = 60cents x PE 10 = RM6 This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Sep 11 2015, 12:29 PM |
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Sep 11 2015, 04:02 PM
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#19
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 11 2015, 12:46 PM) Ini abang give tipsy again...... For point 2, I think you can refer to the profits from the HDD players.. The profits from next few quarters should be leng chai.... Maybe gark can help. Detailed Analysis for current quarter and cumulative period The Group recorded a revenue of RM479.8 million for the reporting quarter and RM1,476.4 million for the cumulative period of the first 9 months of current financial year, representing an increment of 6.0% and 5.1% respectively compared to previous year's corresponding periods. These were due mainly to the better average exchange rate of USD against Ringgit Malaysia in the reporting quarter, amid at a lower sales volume. The Group recorded a net profit after tax of RM32.6 million for the reporting quarter and RM133.9 million for the cumulative period of the first 9 months of current financial year, compared to net profit after tax of RM25.0 million and RM93.4 million respectively in the previous year's corresponding periods, the improvement on profit after tax was due mainly to the higher revenue as described above, improved operational efficiency in the reporting periods and exchange gain resulted from translating financial assets and liabilities for the cumulative period. The outlook for Total Addressable Market (“TAM”) for HDD is challenging, despite the recent launching of Windows 10, a major rebound in PC demand in the near future is unlikely. The demand in enterprise class HDDs is affected by the poor global economic environment with financial uncertainties in Europe and the slowdown in China. The demand for HDD is also adversely affected by the strong U.S. Dollar. However, the weakening of Ringgit Malaysia against U.S. Dollar has a positive effect on our revenue. JCY will continue to leverage its competitive strengths so as to intensify its efforts on improving its operational efficiency This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Sep 11 2015, 04:03 PM |
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Sep 11 2015, 04:32 PM
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#20
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Senior Member
896 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Ampang
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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 11 2015, 04:05 PM) HDD is sunset industry already ler.. in fact desktop pc also going sunset soon... sushi ah? new capex getting ready next few q?Solid state media is the future.. it is used in your smart phone, ipads, notebook, pc etc ... although relatively expensive for high volume. Better yet.. 3G/4G/LTE phone signal chips is even better, everything use them now. Can you guess which company makes em? |
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