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 Traders Kopitiam! V8

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gark
post Sep 10 2015, 10:19 AM

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Boom! tongue.gif

Been busy lately .. no time to post.. laugh.gif

Anyway updates.

No major change in potfolio.. sold cenbond for a bit of profit..

Picked up more tiger bank and Tenaga during the downturn..

Continue to average down on OnG counters... sweat.gif now got a bit of relief.. Ah Boon gonna whack me on that one.. laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

Lucky my SGD potfolio is doing ok.. due to forex.. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 10 2015, 10:21 AM
gark
post Sep 10 2015, 10:24 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 10 2015, 10:24 AM)
cheh!

so you want a hug or a kiss?
rolleyes.gif
*
I want oil go back to $80.. can ah? rolleyes.gif
gark
post Sep 10 2015, 10:27 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Sep 10 2015, 10:25 AM)
Unkerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr wub.gif  hands.gif

Eh, u beli TNB at how much lately? Below 11?
*
RM 10.XX laugh.gif

Catalyst will be coal price dropped 40% lately.. so higher profits for TNB

And i expect them to pay 10+6 B for 1MDB assets, so it is more or less reflected.


gark
post Sep 10 2015, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Sep 10 2015, 10:31 AM)
Ada unker sarpork TNB, I pun boleh simpan with peace of mind wub.gif
*
Nanti if they overpay for 1MDB.. jatuh to RM 9 how? tongue.gif
gark
post Sep 10 2015, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 10 2015, 10:32 AM)
laugh.gif

your christmas wish ah?
Yeah.... sure it can go up......
one day....
problem is .... dunno when only. tongue.gif
see... this is why I always say don't rush to chase a falling stock. tongue.gif
usd is still my friend.........  whistling.gif
*
Cheh! Now USD is everybody's friend already lar...

Now Ah Boon play what counters? Must be wood counters lor.. tongue.gif
gark
post Sep 10 2015, 11:24 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 10 2015, 10:59 AM)
Yup....but me and the fella friend so long.

tongue.gif
Wood stuff still looks good....
See how 'strong' USD....

Rubber stuff also good what....

Some more.....errrr....got some more what....
*
More important.. which one you playing now.. brows.gif brows.gif
gark
post Sep 10 2015, 03:18 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 10 2015, 11:43 AM)
laugh.gif

You should have asked straight away,..........
There is this old flame.....
Turning back good profits after a slump....
Only problem is ....dunno how to play the stock...

Then got this one....
Does a lot of business in Euro....
Euro also can consider friend......
But then......also dunno how to play.....
tongue.gif
*
Emmm...

Malaysia hard to play..

Just bought INDF.IJ at 4,9XX .. tongue.gif Bargain resilent consumer stock
More fun.. whee! laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 10 2015, 03:22 PM
gark
post Sep 10 2015, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 10 2015, 04:11 PM)
laugh.gif

where got hard to play..... tongue.gif

who say hard?
let's see....
err.... kayu stock... lol....
err.... take hevea.....don't want talk Homer la.... LOL....
how would you rate this stock?
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Hevea ah.. good stock for USD play.. but then hor.. already fly high high already tongue.gif
gark
post Sep 11 2015, 10:29 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 10 2015, 04:35 PM)
laugh.gif

why so pessimistic?

you think USD can so fast die against RM?

you think RM can get strong back?
anway, yeah... those multi multi bagger tends to look 'already fly high high'........................ tongue.gif

tongue.gif

user posted image
user posted image
user posted image
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Haha Boon must have made big bucks from the play... nice.

USD is alredy reaching euphoria point... how much longer it will last? wink.gif

Need to find new things to play hehe brows.gif
gark
post Sep 11 2015, 10:29 AM

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QUOTE(TakoC @ Sep 10 2015, 04:42 PM)
O&G? Thought you are only holding SAKP?
*
Not only SKP.. a few others too... whistling.gif
gark
post Sep 11 2015, 10:36 AM

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QUOTE(holybo @ Sep 10 2015, 07:14 PM)
Been talking to a FPSO captain. O&G demand is low and the production keep going.. so.. storage increase.. probably still need long time to recover..

btw, palm oil storage also increasing..
*
Both of these are at through values...

Oil is already way below the replacement cost of finding new oil, unless there are other fuel to replace it .. sooner or later it will be up.

On the production scale, it is artificially inflated by OPEC to counter shale oil.. it has worked for a while. How much pain can OPEC take further and how long.. Saudi has already issued their first sovereign bond.. so they are burning through their reserves. Saudi also have 10,000 troops fighting in a proxy war in Yemen, and war cost a lot of money. wink.gif

And shale oil has gone back to tapping their most profitable oil patch to survive..while abandoning their marginal patches, those shale oil drillers have no choice but to pump more to counter the low price. How long before they run out of easy pickings and need to drill more well. Rig count is down 60%, but production volume is staying put for now..and only recently have a small reduction. Most US drillers credit rating is already rated at junk.. how long before they too run out of financing?

And not all oil companies is suffering.. in fact Russian oil companies are increasing their profit. How is the wonders of Russia. Oil tax in Russia is based on the oil price and also minus investment cost, below certain price the tax can be negative. This is more or less 'subsidized' by the government. So Russian drillers enjoy the same profit they are getting with $40 oil similar to $100 oils... whistling.gif

I bet that the shale oil drillers will be first to 'blink' in this stare down...

And palm oil.. it follows the oil trend. But it is not that bad, cause even with such low price, most planters are still profitable. wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 11 2015, 10:45 AM
gark
post Sep 11 2015, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Sep 11 2015, 10:51 AM)
Unker, TNB moving upward liao biggrin.gif
*
Still small small movement.. yawn.gif

Wait for bigger ones.. brows.gif
gark
post Sep 11 2015, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Sep 11 2015, 10:58 AM)
today still red day...big cap like TNB not red consider good liao tongue.gif
*
Look at TNB now... brows.gif
gark
post Sep 11 2015, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 11 2015, 11:02 AM)
I got say I got meh? tongue.gif

Err... USD?
let me say this...
that currency is way over rated....
LOL!
come on....
their economy is still a pile of shit...
so why is their currency so strong?

tongue.gif

anyway, I reckon we (or the whole world) is still paying for the sins of US sub prime crimes....
all the helicopter money spun out from the low interest rates have left the US Fed in an extremely difficult situation....
hold the rates.... susah...
increase rates... lagi susah....

anyway the point for me...is not how much longer it can last....
( I might be wrong ) but it's just that I feel the ringgit could weaken much, much further.....  sad.gif 

which is why I feel the USD strength AGAINST the ringgit could continue..........................
now for Hevea...
I see a lot of strong points....
the main one stems from it's 2 core products...
the partical boards and RTA

the RTA business strengthened just like other companies like Homer etc etc...
the particle boards business had been poor the past couple of years...

but as mentioned in the posting  post #531..
a massive turnaround happened for the particle boards business...
just like evergreen fibreboard (though not exactly the same as it's fibreboard and not particle borad)  and also Mieco Chipboard....
the business is booming (can google about the comeback in US housing market and the booming particle board business) ....

so in a sense...
there's 2 area of massive profit growth for Hevea...

which is why the current first half fiscal year profits have almost doubled.... (30 million vs 15.7 million)
it's like 2 in one...
booming furniture business + booming particle board business....

and with the 'strength' in the USD....
profits should even increase further.....

it's like a natural/'safe' hedge against the weak ringgit...

and of course there's other positives...

lol....

shit I am sounding like a snake oil salesman selling first class ticket to Holland....

tongue.gif
*
Haha no denying hevea is doubling thier profit and will continue to do so as long as the USD is still strong.

Will study on it, looks like solid fundamentals at first glance... maybe my heart is not in MY stock now.. wink.gif

Bought PGAS.IJ at 2,6XX.. drool.gif
gark
post Sep 11 2015, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 11 2015, 12:46 PM)
laugh.gif

Ini abang give tipsy again......tongue.gif

For point 2, I think you can refer to the profits from the HDD players..

The profits from next few quarters should be leng chai....

tongue.gif
Maybe gark can help.  smile.gif
*
SAM not too bad wor...

USD driven profits.. Boon you should like it.

Aerospace engineering is currently supporting this counter. thumbup.gif
gark
post Sep 11 2015, 03:39 PM

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QUOTE(holybo @ Sep 11 2015, 01:28 PM)
It is true that the rig count is down. But the oil production still stay put and demand still do not increase much. Now people keep storing oils (1-2 mil barrels per day).. In addition, we need the oil companies die FASTER so that the industry reshuffle, global demand pick up significantly / disaster affect significant production before oil price have significant move.

Otherwise, oil price still need to wait.. I believe USD 60 for WTI should be the cap in a few years. When the oil price go back to USD 60, shale oil operators will start again. Furthermore, shale oil manage to cut production cost to 40-50USD.

Just my 0.0001 cent thought
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True, shale oil some drillers cash cost is just $20 now in eagle ford. But they way they reduce cost is not sustainable, they do it by abandoning higher cost wells (hence rig count reduce) and pump the sh!t out of their cheaper wells with multiple direction and do the same location over and over again to save cost. Mind you shale oil wells have lifespan of only 1-2 years normally, but at the rate they are taking from their profitable wells, it will run out in a year max. After run out they have to drill new wells, that is where the major cost comes in.

Even if oil goes to $60-$80, they will be scared to open lots of new wells, as they scared OPEC will kacau again.. get burned once, twice scared... laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 11 2015, 03:39 PM
gark
post Sep 11 2015, 03:40 PM

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QUOTE(TakoC @ Sep 11 2015, 03:04 PM)
I don't even bother to average down on my O&G stocks now. But in a few blue chips during the correction. Making some good profit now smile.gif

Year end window dressing coming too tongue.gif
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Haha i am still average down on OnG..

Psst look at Armada today.. brows.gif brows.gif

Oh I did pick up a few blue chips here and there,..as well.
gark
post Sep 11 2015, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 11 2015, 03:37 PM)
laugh.gif

it's not a suggestion ....

just a sharing of opinions....
something which is lacking nowadays in this thread....

biggrin.gif
*
Snake oil ... snake oil.. come get some. whistling.gif
gark
post Sep 11 2015, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Sep 11 2015, 03:57 PM)
Short answer - if u are not a full/part-time trader relying on your investments profits to finance your (current) life...u DON'T NEED realised profits as a measure of the success of your investments. sleep.gif

Community service again...

Don't feed the troll Devil's Advocate yawn.gif
*
Admit it.. we are all desperate gamblers.. laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

Maybe that what he wants to hear.. tut tut..
gark
post Sep 11 2015, 04:05 PM

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QUOTE(cooldownguy86 @ Sep 11 2015, 04:02 PM)
I went to check Dufu... tadak leng chai. JCY ada handsome but mainly because of USD. After reading JCY report I still skeptical about HDD related industries:

Detailed Analysis for current quarter and cumulative period
The Group recorded a revenue of RM479.8 million for the reporting quarter and RM1,476.4 million for
the cumulative period of the first 9 months of current financial year, representing an increment of 6.0%
and 5.1% respectively compared to previous year's corresponding periods. These were due mainly to
the better average exchange rate of USD against Ringgit Malaysia in the reporting quarter, amid at a
lower sales volume.

The Group recorded a net profit after tax of RM32.6 million for the reporting quarter and RM133.9
million for the cumulative period of the first 9 months of current financial year, compared to net profit
after tax of RM25.0 million and RM93.4 million respectively in the previous year's corresponding
periods, the improvement on profit after tax was due mainly to the higher revenue as described above,
improved operational efficiency in the reporting periods and exchange gain resulted from translating
financial assets and liabilities for the cumulative period.

The outlook for Total Addressable Market (“TAM”) for HDD is challenging, despite the recent
launching of Windows 10, a major rebound in PC demand in the near future is unlikely.
The demand in enterprise class HDDs is affected by the poor global economic environment with
financial uncertainties in Europe and the slowdown in China. The demand for HDD is also
adversely affected by the strong U.S. Dollar.
However, the weakening of Ringgit Malaysia
against U.S. Dollar has a positive effect on our revenue.
JCY will continue to leverage its competitive strengths so as to intensify its efforts on improving
its operational efficiency
*
HDD is sunset industry already ler.. in fact desktop pc also going sunset soon...

Solid state media is the future.. it is used in your smart phone, ipads, notebook, pc etc ... although relatively expensive for high volume.

Better yet.. 3G/4G/LTE phone signal chips is even better, everything use them now. Can you guess which company makes em? laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 11 2015, 04:09 PM

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