Who care about RM being the WORST or not? I know I don't. I only know that I need to protect my wealth. Worst or second worst, no need to be too obsessed with that. Might end up missing the big picture.

It only matter when you use your money to pay for something. Well, just watch TV news that eggs price are going up because the food for the chicken are imported and price in USD. So inflation is coming. Right at a time when growth slows down. Stagflation?

Of course anyone can find a currency that are worse than the other at any time. Zimbabwe anyone?

cool down guys

let's wait for BNM announcement

That is what the thread is doing the whole time before you came.

We are observing the economy indicator, data, news......bla bla bla.......and also analyzing the trend of USDMYR to determine the long term movement of MYR.
That is something that I think we need to know. Not just look for money but also to protect the money.

Of course, once in a while , they will be people come here and whining. This is normal.

But then, you came with your argument and make thing worse. It is just off the scale by a wide margin!

Are Malaysians now currency experts?

By Goh Wei Liang

Today, the Ringgit breached RM4.00 to a dollar.

When I logged in to my Facebook and Twitter accounts, 9 out of 10 posts that appeared on my timeline were slamming the Government on the Ringgit.

To sum it all up, youth who dominate social media today were posting comments as though tomorrow spelt the end for Malaysia.

Just the past month, I observed Malaysians transform from being constitutional experts, to aviation analysts and now to authorities on economics.

Some even go as far as to put the blame on UMNO and Najib. The group Suara Rakyat for instance likes to say “other countries are doing better because UMNO is not there in their country”.

Of course, when you have a narrow, myopic view, you will tend to miss out the fact that over the 5 year period,

• Russian Roubles lost 114% against USD
• Indonesian Rupiah lost 51% against USD
• Indian Rupees lost 38% against USD
• Norwegian Krone lost 37% against USD
• Australian Dollars lost 24% against USD
• Euro lost 20% against USD
• Thai Baht lost 10% against USD

Do I need to go on?
One of the contributing factors has been the drop in oil prices. Crude oil was trading at US$70-80 / bbl (per barrel) a few years ago. Today it has fallen below US$ 50 per bbl.
Also, the US is not our only trading partner and the performance of our Ringgit is not measured against US dollars alone. When we look at the Ringgit,

• we strengthened against Canadian Dollars (2%)
• we strengthened against Indian Rupees (10%)
• we strengthened against Japanese Yen (14%)
• we strengthened against Indonesian Rupiah (18%)

I don’t need to name more currencies, do I?
Understandably, we are quick to feed on negative news and quick to comment like experts on our Facebook and Twitter accounts. That’s how things work these days.

Of course, none of you made reference to 1998 in your comments.

No one remembered the time when the Ringgit crashed to as low as RM4.725 to a dollar on 7 January 1998 (BNM selling rate, over the counter was more than RM4.80). All of you, who were quick to comment about the state of our economy on Facebook, were still in school. So none of you knew, none of you remembered, none of you experienced what happened in 1998 when Anwar Ibrahim was Finance Minister.

Back then

a) People were losing jobs or had difficulty in getting jobs
b) Households were squeezed
b) average lending rate was 12.16%
c) Inflation was close to 3% without subsidy removals.

So before you get upset and vent your anger on Facebook or Twitter, ask yourself how the Ringgit – Dollar exchange rate affects you.

1. Do you shop online from US websites?
2. Are you planning to fly over to US for a holiday?
3. Are you a Malaysian studying in the US?
4. Do you import goods to be resold in Malaysia?
5. Do you buy necessities and food from the US to use here?
6. Do you at all use the US dollar in your daily life?

Only if you answer yes to any of the above, are you affected.

If you did not answer yes to any of the above, what are you shouting and so worried about?

Your salary is still denominated in Ringgit and you don’t buy necessities with US dollars.

Sure, no one can deny that it has some impact on certain segments especially imports and our plans to travel to US, UK etc.
And guys, the international ratings agencies – Fitch, Moody’s and S&P – have all maintained Malaysia’s outlook as stable. There are no economists out there who are saying that Malaysia’s economy will collapse, only politicians are saying this.

That's the problem. Yes! "strange Malaysian mentality". Always wrong interpretation. The message is we are not alone and what are we going to do about it. China economy took a dive lately. The government intervened and pumped in money to stabilize. What are we going to do? Many Malaysian who do not have children studying overseas, wanting to move money out of the country for whatever reason or relying mostly on imported goods will be first to be impacted. The impact to me is very less as I don't have the above reasons. Let us agree to the main reason as lower fuel price and 1MDB. The fuel price drop we can't do much. Let us ask the question "If 1MDB issues had not been made viral worldwide like what it is today, will Malaysia be in this state?". We allowed foreigners to do it for us. What is their interest and what is the interest of our Malaysian collobrators. In the past when the opposition was weak maybe it was ok. As now our opposition is very strong. As such I thought that this type of activities will be better checked and controlled. I truely think that the candidates whom we voted to the Parliament are not the right candidates. Maybe we are all stupid like what Dr. Mahathir said "Malaysians are stupid" in the managing of MAS and had to bring a foreigner to manage. Maybe we need to vote foreigners to parliament too. Maybe also a foreigner PM. Malaysian currency down is due to onslaught of Malaysia by its own citizens. "Don't wash your dirty linnen in public" unless you have some ulterior motive.

This is exactly what I mean other country like hk is even worst as I have a friend from hk saying ringgit is still strong when compared to their hk currency and the ringgit is only at 4.2 and people already start whining without remembering other country currency is even worst off than us

This post has been edited by yolldddd: Sep 4 2015, 01:16 AM

actually, many feel the same like you.

dunno if it's trolling or simply zero knowledge on the subject.

it is hard to keep a forum at a sound and informative level if this continues.

Except kankong, bean sprout, durian and palm oil; over half of rice, vegetables, fruits, fish, flour, milk powder, beef, chicken feed, clothes, etc are imported. Myr depreciation have no impact on everyday life.

Your HK friend is misinformed. The Hong Kong Dollar is pegged to the US Dollar at a rate of about 7.80; and this has been continuous since the 1980s. Thus when the USD is strong vs Ringgit, the HKD is equally strong vs Ringgit. Since the USD strengthened against other currencies, the HKD is now stronger against many other currencies. Here's a chart of MYR/HKD and MYR/USD that shows this relationship:


Only at 4.2 as compared to... HKD at 7.8? 3.2 a year back?

This post has been edited by idyllrain: Sep 4 2015, 11:18 AM

1.00 USD = 4.23840 MYR

The Good - MYR is under value coz all economic indicators r ok
The Bad - Rakyat suffer coz purchasing power is reduce due to depreciation of MYR
The Ugly - MYR depreciate faster than other Asia Pacific currencies due to Trust Deficit

Complete d sentence below
USD is stronger than Steel but MYR is weaker than _______________

I have leant a lot through many insightful replies from many forummers here in this 100+ pages thread, allowing me to see beyond the numbers like 3.0, 3.6 and 4.2

Along the way, we have 2 or 3 forummers who obviously have their own agenda with Macai characteristics and I am glad they are of the minority. I just treat them as the clowns in a circus show

I don't think the RM depreciation will end soon. It has many interesting development waiting for unfolding. We are witnessing history live

Financial Times: Saudi Arabia burns through foreign reserves (30 April 2015)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/01948d2c-ef49-11...l#axzz3kjGoIeUq

Before the oil crisis, Saudi Arabia had USD 800 billion in reserve. Today, it has spent close to USD 50 billion in a span of 1 year trying to prop up its economy, defend its oil market share and attempting to crush American shale oil producers. Assuming they burn USD 50 billion a year, they can burn through it in 16 years. Not really a big issue for them.

WSJ: Saudi Arabia Issues Bonds Worth $5 Billion to Plug Budget Shortfall (11 August 2015)

http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-i...fall-1439305126

I was watching CNN the other day and noted this article. Apparently, it’s a first for Saudi Arabia. The CNN commentator actually mentioned, it’s like having your rich neighbour next door who has been buying cars in cash… suddenly decided to take out a car loan to buy a car.

Bank Negara’s international reserves at US$96.7b (7 August 2015)

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...July/?style=biz

Is it really enough? Looking from a Saudi Arabia perspective or its just not right to compare with a rich neighbour?

BNM reserves: Should we be concerned?

Low international reserves a concern? how does it affect the RM? Interesting article below:-

http://www.businesscircle.com.my/bnm-reser...e-be-concerned/

Summary…

it still looks like BNM (or Zeti) is still holding all the Spades (for now).

I think it won’t be too long now US will declare an interest rate hike (the highly anticipated mid-September hike, after it missed the July window), there’s probably a silver lining around the corner for RM (or it will be delayed till December?). Who knows!

Yeah like a sovereign debt crisis. We will most likely default, life will still go on though not to worry.

Our trouble will be the same reason why Greece got into trouble when they converted their debts to euro when they join the European union.

Just that ours is in USD. Like the eu we are divided but unlike them we live together. AMong the eu population there is a lot of anger and they want to come out of the eu. However in malaysia we can't do that. Oh maybe Penang and east malaysia can split since these states generally have a lot in common with their passion. But we are not like eu where each group can just come out we live together.

This will be interesting.

This post has been edited by Binyamin: Sep 4 2015, 10:29 AM

Iceberg ahead????

Iran’s oil output plans put focus on Opec strategy

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4f991b44-4b...l#axzz3kjGoIeUq

Looks like Saudi and Iraqi are ramping up production to maintain their market share, completely disregarding Iran’s entry?

Putrajaya receives first Petronas dividend payout (3 March 2015)

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...dividend-payout

31 December 2014, Putrajaya received RM 26 billion (not 2.6billion) in dividend (not donation) from Petronas… Should be interesting to see whether Petronas can repeat it’s performance in 31 December 2015 and especially 2016.



I must say I have to concur with the statement above….

Looks like all signs are pointing to a further depreciation in the RM… “ICE-BERG!”, captain replies: “FULL STEAM AHEAD!”

Incorrect.
It is not a debt crisis to start with.
Malaysia is still able to service the sovereign debt, no issue of defaulting for near term, as long as fiscal deficit is tackled and being pared down.

Majority of Malaysia sovereign debt is in RM denominated, not USD.

The issue now is capital outflow that causing RM depreciation more than others , which also resulted foreign currency reserves dropping fast (but not in dire situation).

In all fairness, I think malaysia is in better shape than Greece. We have most of our sovereign debt in RM, not USD (although there are about 30-35% holdings by foreigner) and we still are in charge of our own monetary policy.

Disaster will happen if the manager of our economy continue the same fiscal policy and do not exercise prudence in spending. Over long run, we will have the same fate of Greece. Just that we have a few more monetary tools than Greece to use

the key danger now is 1mdb loans.

from the way the last int payment was made, high chance it will default eventually given shadowy secretive unexplained stories climaxing now.

question is what impact it will hv on other loans, other banks, mgs, bursa.

the fact they the politicians keep harping "no systematic risk" tells u it is a n issue, however small it may seem then or now.



while we wait for bnm fx data today:

usd/myr 4.257

there isn't much confidence among investors and world community, is there?

Correct ! The above constitute a major proportion of Indirect Effects.

" 1. Do you shop online from US websites?
2. Are you planning to fly over to US for a holiday?
3. Are you a Malaysian studying in the US?
4. Do you import goods to be resold in Malaysia?
5. Do you buy necessities and food from the US to use here?
6. Do you at all use the US dollar in your daily life?

Only if you answer yes to any of the above, are you affected. "

The above are all Direct Effects.

In terms of inflation being experienced, there are two types of inflation effects affecting us : Direct Effects and Indirect Effects.

I don't think one can escape easily from Indirect Effects, but one can say : yeah,, don't send the children to overseas U's,.. don't travel to The UK and The US, etc,... but one must still eat in Msia. If one wants to plant his own vege's, he must purchase fertilizers too.

Someitmes it's also the timing of events taking shape. It so happens that the price of oil has to drop at the same time as issues are being unfolded in a country. Why can't one event happen after the other ?

LIke I always say, sure, we can look at and comment on the political situation, but I'd rather think of how to circumvent the prblems hitting me directly on my face.