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 ringgit Malaysia drop , how to I change my RM to USD

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Hansel
post Sep 4 2015, 11:03 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 4 2015, 10:53 AM)
the key danger now is 1mdb loans.

from the way the last int payment was made, high chance it will default eventually given shadowy secretive unexplained stories climaxing now.

question is what impact it will hv on other loans, other banks, mgs, bursa.

the fact they the politicians keep harping "no systematic risk" tells u it is a n issue, however small it may seem then or now.
while we wait for bnm fx data today:

usd/myr 4.257

there isn't much confidence among investors and world community, is there?
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That's right. The IMF has lowered the world growth yesterday. Not much optimism, especially after what China did to its currency lately and the current events unfolding in Chine. The world mkts are so happy that China is taking two days off yesterday and today for their parade.

BUt having said the above, I don'tthink we should say, well, everybody is suffering, so we must suffer too,... like what one ot two are saying here,... things like even HK is worse, other currencies are performing worse than the RM,.... Why must we suffer and not take care of ourselves by moving ahead of the curve rather then stay and suffer together with the world because we think that it is inevitable ?
Hansel
post Sep 4 2015, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 4 2015, 10:34 AM)
In all fairness, I think malaysia is in better shape than Greece. We have most of our sovereign debt in RM, not USD (although there are about 30-35% holdings by foreigner) and we still are in charge of our own monetary policy.

Disaster will happen if the manager of our economy continue the same fiscal policy and do not exercise prudence in spending. Over long run, we will have the same fate of Greece. Just that we have a few more monetary tools than Greece to use
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Mkt is forward-looking, so should we. If we, especially our decision-makers up there don't change, then the final result is, after the defaults, the heavy devaluation of the RM, runaway inflation and our stores becomes empty, we will need help from outside. When this happens, that outside body will dictate painful terms onto us.
Binyamin
post Sep 4 2015, 11:10 AM

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This post has been edited by Binyamin: Sep 4 2015, 11:16 AM
icemanfx
post Sep 4 2015, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 4 2015, 10:34 AM)
Incorrect.
It is not a debt crisis to start with.
Malaysia is still able to service the sovereign debt, no issue of defaulting for near term, as long as fiscal deficit is tackled and being pared down.

Majority of Malaysia sovereign debt is in RM denominated, not USD.

The issue now is capital outflow that causing RM depreciation more than others , which also resulted foreign currency reserves dropping fast (but not in dire situation).
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The treasury could always issue more bonds, to be purchased by EPF, asn, etc; there won't be a debt crisis.

On 1ndb bonds, there is always petronas and local banks to the rescue.

Whatever the outcome, MYR is expected to slide down and stay down for a number of years.
Showtime747
post Sep 4 2015, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 4 2015, 10:53 AM)
the key danger now is 1mdb loans.

from the way the last int payment was made, high chance it will default eventually given shadowy secretive unexplained stories climaxing now.

question is what impact it will hv on other loans, other banks, mgs, bursa.

the fact they the politicians keep harping "no systematic risk" tells u it is a n issue, however small it may seem then or now.
while we wait for bnm fx data today:

usd/myr 4.257

there isn't much confidence among investors and world community, is there?
*
1 more default, and all the 3 main rating agencies will downgrade malaysia ratings and start the avalanche sweat.gif

From April 1 until today, the GST claims by the businesses are still not refunded. Very hard for the people to believe all is well with the administration

I hope I am wrong though...
Showtime747
post Sep 4 2015, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 4 2015, 10:57 AM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Bro, he is being sarcastic lah tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 4 2015, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 4 2015, 11:03 AM)
BUt having said the above, I don'tthink we should say, well, everybody is suffering, so we must suffer too,... like what one ot two are saying here,... things like even HK is worse, other currencies are performing worse than the RM,.... Why must we suffer and not take care of ourselves by moving ahead of the curve rather then stay and suffer together with the world because we think that it is inevitable ?
*
that is a manifestation of decades of weak education and policies.

the inability to look upward aspiring to be better than the best but instead, find a place among the worst and be happy with it.
AVFAN
post Sep 4 2015, 11:21 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 4 2015, 11:19 AM)
From April 1 until today, the GST claims by the businesses are still not refunded. Very hard for the people to believe all is well with the administration

I hope I am wrong though...
*
if true, this does not bode well - putrajaya having cashflow problems...
Showtime747
post Sep 4 2015, 11:21 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 4 2015, 11:07 AM)
Mkt is forward-looking, so should we. If we, especially our decision-makers up there don't change, then the final result is, after the defaults, the heavy devaluation of the RM, runaway inflation and our stores becomes empty, we will need help from outside. When this happens, that outside body will dictate painful terms onto us.
*
So heed unker dreamer's advice and redeem all your ASx today. You will thank me when what you said above come true tongue.gif
Hansel
post Sep 4 2015, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(Binyamin @ Sep 4 2015, 11:10 AM)
Yes USD denominated Malaysian debt is relatively low if USD don't get too high. I agree right now it is not an issue. I see 2 different worlds, one is where people are watching out and making plans for a sovereign debt crisis in all emerging countries the other is people are not concern about it.

The total USD denominated debt by the non US countries is 9 trillion USD in which a bit more than half of it is held by emerging countries. There are people I know preparing for a debt crisis world wide because they can measure the extend of the USD rise, but it is only an estimation base on historical data in conjunction with some models.... so hopefully Malaysia will be spared as USD soar. (Sorry I can't quote a lot of facts because I am not sure if they are proprietary or not)
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Judging by the way the USD is strengthening against the RM, soon we will be backed against a wall between wanting to use our reserves to service this debt OR that debt, OR pay the civil servants higher, OR whatever other expenses in the doorway. It's like what we say : too many pots to be covered but not enough pot-covers around. Will there be takers if we issue new bonds anymore, even at higher coupon rates ? Or we will have to live with rules forced onto ourselves by turning to outside help ?

I recalled there was a time quite recently that the Japanese Gov't asked the companies to repatriate funsd back to Japan to help in the fiscal problems. Our Gov't is doing that now. But how many would support his request from the Gov't ? Foreign Funds only care abt protecting themselves and making money, They flee if there are problems, period,... But local investors, outside of The EPF, etc ??
Binyamin
post Sep 4 2015, 11:24 AM

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Sigh... it is frustrating that I can't talk and give evidence about the things I come across because I am bound by my employers T and C.

I agree right now we are not facing any sovereign debt issue. So are the other emerging countries that have about north of 5 trillion in USD debt. 1 thing may lead to another.
Showtime747
post Sep 4 2015, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 4 2015, 11:21 AM)
if true, this does not bode well - putrajaya having cashflow problems...
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Customs even send sms to phones "pre-emting" refund is in progress....trying to calm people down by telling the business "hey your money will be refunded, don't worry..."

The feeling is just not right....
AVFAN
post Sep 4 2015, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 4 2015, 11:22 AM)
I recalled there was a time quite recently that the Japanese Gov't asked the companies to repatriate funsd back to Japan to help in the fiscal problems. Our Gov't is doing that now. But how many would support his request from the Gov't ? Foreign Funds only care abt protecting themselves and making money, They flee if there are problems, period,... But local investors, outside of The EPF, etc ??
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gomen can set example by instructing 1mdb to redeem their foreign "units" and mara to sell the props in oz/uk, repatriate the money. these are big $.

are they doing that?
Showtime747
post Sep 4 2015, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(Binyamin @ Sep 4 2015, 11:24 AM)
Sigh... it is frustrating that I can't talk and give evidence about the things I come across because I am bound by my employers T and C.

I agree right now we are not facing any sovereign debt issue. So are the other emerging countries that have about north of 5 trillion in USD debt. 1 thing may lead to another.
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Wow, you mean our debt is actually mainly in USD ? BNM has been lying to us ?
Hansel
post Sep 4 2015, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 4 2015, 11:21 AM)
So heed unker dreamer's advice and redeem all your ASx today. You will thank me when what you said above come true  tongue.gif
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Wel,.. I have beenforward-looking and having Greece as the 'role model' all this while in the back of my head. Certainly I am not hoping that we will turn out to be like Greece. I still have a lot of friends and loved ones in this ctry. How to 'carry them all away' to another place ?

But yeah, thank you, Showtime, for reinforcing a point. When you are right,.. things are probably right...

The evolution of discussions seems to be too negative for the ASX. In life, when money gets short, all skeletons come out of the closet. If one has nowhere to run to, then he stays and hopes for the best. But when one has options in life, then he can choose to go somewhere else if he thinks staying is a risk that he cannot take.

Thanks again !
Binyamin
post Sep 4 2015, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 4 2015, 11:28 AM)
Wow, you mean our debt is actually mainly in USD ? BNM has been lying to us ?
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Lol no, I don't think we were lied to. Our USD denominated debt is not big now thats all.
icemanfx
post Sep 4 2015, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 4 2015, 11:20 AM)
that is a manifestation of decades of weak education and policies.

the inability to look upward aspiring to be better than the best but instead, find a place among the worst and be happy with it.
*
Classic syiok sendiri jaguh kampung.
Showtime747
post Sep 4 2015, 11:33 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 4 2015, 11:30 AM)
Wel,.. I have beenforward-looking and having Greece as the 'role model' all this while in the back of my head. Certainly I am not hoping that we will turn out to be like Greece. I still have a lot of friends and loved ones in this ctry. How to 'carry them all away' to another place ?

But yeah, thank you, Showtime, for reinforcing a point. When you are right,.. things are probably right...

The evolution of discussions seems to be too negative for the ASX. In life, when money gets short, all skeletons come out of the closet. If one has nowhere to run to, then he stays and hopes for the best. But when one has options in life, then he can choose to go somewhere else if he thinks staying is a risk that he cannot take.

Thanks again !
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Ya talking about risk, the foreigners are escaping to mitigate their risk. Likewise, the risk for ASx and even EPF has corresponding increased. It is totally up to the individual holding the ASx and EPF to reassess their risk profile. Obviously there are many people thinking the 6.x% in ASx will still worth the risk
Hansel
post Sep 4 2015, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(Binyamin @ Sep 4 2015, 11:24 AM)
Sigh... it is frustrating that I can't talk and give evidence about the things I come across because I am bound by my employers T and C.

I agree right now we are not facing any sovereign debt issue. So are the other emerging countries that have about north of 5 trillion in USD debt. 1 thing may lead to another.
*
It's okay,.. we can estimate too,.. and I think you are talking about counter-party risk on the emerging countries having more than 5 trillion in debt. Than many countries will default forst before Msia, and we can capitalise on that in many ways, if ours up there are smart enough.

I don't think is entirely right to say that we are not faving any foreign debt issue. If we are forward-looking enough, it is inevitable that we will need to default on the foreign debts because we can't sacrifice the other expenses, right ??? Unless,... some funds come in from somewhere by charitable countries or organozations that do not impose rules onto us, then things would brighten-up. Or,... some debts are forgiven,..
icemanfx
post Sep 4 2015, 11:42 AM

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Given current BNM forex reserve is barely enough to cover bonds hold by foreigners, the biggest threat will be exodus of these bond holders.
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