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 ringgit Malaysia drop , how to I change my RM to USD

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netmask8
post Jun 13 2015, 05:06 PM

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Weak RM is very good for commodity EXPORT and TOURISM business while reduce local ppls traveling out. Hence, will be more surplus than deficit.

With export and tourism business, more ppls got employment, OT and pay taxes plus spur domestic expenditures.
Spore is not export oriented country like Msia, hence to reduce
their cost and control their inflation, their central bank(MAS)
alwats hike SGD to meet mentioned objective.
netmask8
post Jun 13 2015, 11:13 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jun 13 2015, 07:35 PM)
it's good, really. that's what free market capitalism is about - lowest cost producer wins, all consumers win.

let oil get to usd10/bbl!

whoever produces something at lowest cost wins - as long as it last.

f those who want to gouge and rob!

now... u get me upset with unifi. mad.gif
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Ask yrself back, if crude oil is usd 10 / barrel and you are oil producer, would you want to sell it
at this price or hedge this oil price to your customer ? hmm.gif Be more SMART a bit..
netmask8
post Jun 15 2015, 05:40 PM

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1. A weaker currency will help revive exports, as Msia is dependant on commodity and electronic sectors.
2. More homestay/hotels boom up, as present TOURISM occupation/booking level is high.
3. Less local ppls travelling oversea for holiday and less ppls import items, as ppls might feel the pain.
4. More Sporean coming to here to spend more $ and more Msian go to S'pore to work and earn SGD ?

Hence, surplus > deficit .. Rating Agencies will upgrade rating level ?
netmask8
post Jun 15 2015, 06:25 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 15 2015, 06:10 PM)
Well, I wouldn't want to be an individual in the above scenarios. Even if I'm an exporter or hotel operatr, I would still suffer higher prices of goods and services that I spend on in-country.

Sure, Surplus might exceed Deficit after some mths, giving a nice CA Balance and TRade Data, however, the 'surplus funds' wil be used to save 1MDB. Fitch wil soon re-evaluate by end-June,... analysts out there are predicting Downgrade.
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See the positive side of surplus with weak currency.. Hope NO politic topic, as it is not clear yet at the moment.
Many ppls does not know how to differentiate lost / low cashflow and assets in the present scenarios,
as it was not clarify yet at the moment. They found many "ASSUMPTION' comments in Social Networking/FB..
SPECIAL NOTE:- A Person is Guilty in Social Networking unless proven innocent in court? doh.gif

Not only Fitch, but SnP and Moody rating agencies too will upgrade rating grade? As surplus > deficit , right?

This post has been edited by netmask8: Jun 15 2015, 06:26 PM
netmask8
post Jun 16 2015, 08:28 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 15 2015, 07:27 PM)
I am not depending on 'ASSUMTION' comments. I do my own research and analyes. And I commnt based on what I have done m hoework on. Furthermore, my comments are also based on what I have experienced earlier in my invstments, or are currently investing on and holding onto. Hence, these are real-life happenngs.

Don't wish to comment abt being guilty or not when putting fwd opinons in Social Media tools.

Ratings agency reviews,... see below :-

Fitch Ratings said in March that there’s more than a 50 percent chance it will downgrade Malaysia’s A- credit rating at a review due before the end of June. The company cited falling energy prices, pressure on the current account and state investment company 1Malaysia Development Bhd.’s debt as factors.

Above extracted from : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...mism-not-shared

We'll see whn the review comes along, whether dropped to a lower rating from ct rating or elevatd. SnP and Moody's are not due for rating rebiew till later in the yr.
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Fitch did not talk anything about surplus from Tourism, export of commodities and electronic sectors from weak currency that also contributing a lot % in country GDP.
netmask8
post Jun 17 2015, 06:34 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 17 2015, 10:52 AM)
Wehave a divergnce here:-

For a possible UP-RATNG from Fitch, the following factors can be considred :-

Surplus from Tourism, export of commodities and electronic sectors from weak currency that also contributing a lot % in country GDP.

And for a possible DOWN-RATING frm Fitch, the following factors accordingly :-

GDP for 2nd Q is highly to be weak, poor consumer sentiment, poor sales recorded in most company (can be seen on many listed company turnover), as well as both import and export figure shrinking.

Fitch has a forward-looking policy, hence wht happens in future wil also be takn into account. Lets see.

Hoping all forummers here can help to keep track on the result from Fitch too. Lets see how this ratng moves the RM vs the SGD and the USD.

As I write this now, the RM remains the same and is rangebound against the SGD and the USD compared to yesterday.
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Fitch is the smallest among the credit rating agencies.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_(cr...ating_agencies)
What if Fitch downgrade while the other two maintain present rating.. No big impact .. minus a grade ( Marginal ) by Fitch
while another 2x big brothers holds it.

Normally, these figures understate the dominance of Moody's and S&P, since the norm for debt issuers is to obtain ratings from these two, and only occasionally turn to Fitch, for example if Moody's and S&P disagree ONLY. Fitch is plays certain role.
And not Very important role.

This post has been edited by netmask8: Jun 17 2015, 06:42 PM
netmask8
post Jun 18 2015, 02:45 PM

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QUOTE(vincentwmh @ Jun 18 2015, 02:01 PM)
rm drop lagi!!!! ho-seh la
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It is very common, as USA Federal Reserve will plan to hike interest rate beginning Sept 2015 gradually.
No big surprise for you as USD will continue uptrend against major currencies, not only RM..
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102761954 See the expert point of views.
netmask8
post Jun 18 2015, 11:38 PM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Jun 17 2015, 06:34 PM)
Fitch is the smallest among the credit rating agencies.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_(cr...ating_agencies)
What if Fitch downgrade while the other two maintain present rating.. No big impact .. minus a grade ( Marginal ) by Fitch
while another 2x big brothers holds it.

Normally, these figures understate the dominance of Moody's and S&P, since the norm for debt issuers is to obtain ratings from these two, and only occasionally turn to Fitch, for example if Moody's and S&P disagree ONLY. Fitch is plays certain role.
And not Very important role.
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MALAYSIA CREDIT RATING STATUS ( Do not click me )

drool.gif Standard & Poors credit rating for Malaysia stands at A-. Moodys rating for Malaysia sovereign debt is A3. Fitchs credit rating for Malaysia is A-. In general, a credit rating is used by sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and other investors to gauge the credit worthiness of Malaysia thus having a big impact on the country's borrowing costs. rclxm9.gif

This post has been edited by netmask8: Jun 18 2015, 11:39 PM
netmask8
post Jun 22 2015, 10:54 AM

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Good News to Tourism business, as many holidaymakers
traveling during summer break. Coming months, many domestic holiday too. Bursa Msia are rebounding and debt
credit rating agencies still got high grade for Msia.

netmask8
post Jun 22 2015, 11:01 AM

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Source from neutral party, not from mkini, minsider, star,
Utusan, harakah ..etc political news u name it. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/exports
netmask8
post Jun 25 2015, 06:18 PM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Jun 18 2015, 11:38 PM)
MALAYSIA CREDIT RATING STATUS ( Do not click me )

drool.gif  Standard & Poors credit rating for Malaysia stands at A-. Moodys rating for Malaysia sovereign debt is A3. Fitchs credit rating for Malaysia is A-. In general, a credit rating is used by sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and other investors to gauge the credit worthiness of Malaysia thus having a big impact on the country's borrowing costs.  rclxm9.gif
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A- Fitch downgrade one notch expected? Credit rating
to BBB+ ?? Still a very good quality credit. Seek Uncle
Google help on the rating levels.Don't surprise, as tourism and exports makes a credit rating upgrade ?

netmask8
post Jun 25 2015, 10:27 PM

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Surplus from Exports Vs Imports , Tourism and GST Collection will helps credit upgrade ?

If a notch downgrade from 3rd grade credit rating agency (Fitch) is nothing proud..
Should focus on SnP and Moody ratings, as their weight will influence more on country credit grade.

An credit downgrade will depreciate currency and makes more surplus PLUS boost TOURISM ? hmm.gif

netmask8
post Jun 25 2015, 10:49 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jun 25 2015, 10:29 PM)
didn't know Fitch is 3rd grade credit rating agency  tongue.gif
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Utilize Uncle Google in your answer..

Fitch is the smallest among the credit rating agencies.. ===>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_(cr...ating_agencies)
As of 2013 they hold a collective global market share of "roughly 95 percent" with Moody's and Standard & Poor's having approximately 40% each, and Fitch around 15%.

Normally, these figures understate the dominance of Moody's and S&P, since the norm for debt issuers is to obtain ratings from these two, and only occasionally turn to Fitch, for example if Moody's and S&P disagree ONLY. Fitch is plays certain role. nod.gif And not Very important role.
netmask8
post Jul 1 2015, 10:11 AM

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Fitch maintained Malaysia rating as A- and upgraded outlook from negative to stable. Ringgit will bounce against major currencies?

netmask8
post Jul 1 2015, 08:02 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 1 2015, 07:52 PM)
OKay,... news are starting to come out sayng the Ringit will topple over again. Lets see,....  smile.gif
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A- is quite a good grade and many ppls still cannot believe international agency rating but still expects downgrade.
Ppls must have confidence and optimistic here.Have a great day.
netmask8
post Jul 5 2015, 11:55 PM

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Msia main GDP export are 1) semiconductors and electronic equipment, 2) palm oil, 3) petroleum and liquefied natural gas, 4) wood and wood products, rubber, textiles, chemicals, solar panels. For high cost of petroleum digging and with low petrol price, why need to meet the equilibrium ? As long as export in # 1 and # 2
are still sustaining, country economy grow should be meeting 4% this year. TOP 3 WORLD credit rating agencies gave below grade M'sia on its credit :-
Standard & Poor's:-
A+ (Domestic)
A- (Foreign)
A+ (T&C Assessment)
Outlook: Stable
Moody's:
A3
Outlook: Positive
Fitch:
A-
Outlook: Stable

Weak RM help on Export than Import and TOURISM Business here.

1) https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...ok/geos/my.html
2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Malaysia
3) http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/exports

Expect USD will be higher and higher coming years, as USA Central Bank (FED) going to raise interest rate, as major hedge funds/investment companies
will sell emerging/developing country stocks and put their $$ work harder in US Stock/Equities/Bonds to generate higher yield (Return of Investment).

SPECIAL NOTE:- What you seen in WhatsApp, FB or other social networking (with PHOTO EDIT) doesn't picture the right information. Have a great day.

This post has been edited by netmask8: Jul 6 2015, 12:03 AM
netmask8
post Jul 7 2015, 10:47 PM

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Economy Thesis Question :-
Is weak currency = Boost TOURISM, Surplus Export > Import ? Any idea?
Many S'porean / tourists like to spend their money here like KING, while local ppls less travel out or buy imported gadgets.
Hence, more surplus inflows > outflows. I agree not to believe, but many tutors gave credit of weak currency benefits.
Think from ECONOMY PERSPECTIVE , not politic . You has returned your economy paper to your teacher? thumbup.gif


netmask8
post Jul 7 2015, 11:02 PM

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QUOTE(anudora @ Jul 7 2015, 10:55 PM)
that is why Zimbabwe is good. weak currency and come with a new slogan. Now everyone is a TRILLIONAIRE!
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/...000-old-dollars
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Too far away.. Compare with China or Japan always low currency exchg trend to makes their export competitive and add more surplus trade / boost economy.

This post has been edited by netmask8: Jul 7 2015, 11:03 PM
netmask8
post Jul 8 2015, 05:11 PM

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QUOTE(xftwww @ Jul 8 2015, 02:05 PM)
Hmm ok. I have a degree in Economics from a pretty good school, let's see if I can take a shot at it.

Let's look at that for a minute. A weak currency is not a reflection of a booming economy. The benefits to a weaker currency only apply if you're a primary exporter of goods and services. To be fair we do export a lot, mostly commodities. But the import costs are killing us too and everytime we have to pay debt in USD or any other currency we bleed money. Also, we can't travel anywhere, and cost push inflation due to expensive exports are going to raise prices (not incl. gst lol)

The reason our currency has declined is strongly correlated to the levels of capital outflows. Primarily due to 'perceived risk' by foreign investors. As they start selling our currency, we start bleeding money. Our currency hasn't been this weak since... 2005? Mainly it's because of systemic corruption so we're back to politics. So it's kind of hard to talk about this without getting the politics involved, considering it's one of the primary causes.
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On the tourism portions with weak currency? China and Japan always keep their currency exchg to makes export competitive.
Our main GDP is semiconductor/electrical/electronic that contributing a third of GDP.

netmask8
post Jul 8 2015, 10:20 PM

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QUOTE(xftwww @ Jul 8 2015, 10:12 PM)
I think you're looking at this the wrong way. It is not a case of weak or strong currency = better, it is more a case of cause and effect. On the one hand you have a weak currency being one of the CAUSES why China is super competitive, combined with lower wages and standard of living, operating cost is cheaper despite exports of goods, therefore EFFECTING it's high growth. On the other hand, Japan's weak currency is an EFFECT of it's almost 0 inflation rate and 0% in gdp growth for the past decade, the cause of which is declining fertility rates and population growth.

Malaysia is currently facing something more like the Japanese problem but not exactly. The Chinese government PURPOSELY held down the currency, until the US government launched an investigation. But we are facing a fall in our currency due to a 'crisis of confidence'. No one trust our banks or government, so they RUN to safer currencies.

It doesn't matter if our semiconductor contributes to a 3rd of GDP or not. Unless you can tell me that it was 10% this year and GREW to 33% BECAUSE of a fall in currency, I don't really see the difference. I don't believe the growth in semiconductor manufacturing as a function of a GDP shows anything other than we have HISTORICALLY been a cheap producer.

If you want a good example of what is happening to Malaysia. Look at Russia over the last year, and it's currency. We look more like THAT than China.  sad.gif
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Tourism business will be get better, as tourists with greater currency exhg rate now got more $$ to spend here, while local ppls reluctant / delay their oversea, right?

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