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 ringgit Malaysia drop , how to I change my RM to USD

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AVFAN
post Jan 6 2015, 06:01 PM

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QUOTE(Croner @ Jan 6 2015, 05:44 PM)
As you can see Ringgit Malaysia drop like mad in many ways aginst USD, SGD, RMB, Thai bath, New Taiwan dollar.
I want to change most of my savings RM to USD as.I believe it.might raised to one USD become 4 Ringgit malaysia.

Beside money changer is there a faster way to switch myr currency to USD??
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i share yr pain... n i bet almost everyone here is thinking about that. action or not, that's the question...

the trouble is not just declining oil n commodity prices but the foreign sell off, illicit capital outflows, imdb bomb about to explode, flood damages, mas-airasia disasters' negativism. all that takes sentiments n confidence to a low low.

but there is an argument that rm has improved over aud, yen... and hundreds of bil of reserves to the rescue later... so...??

money changer... the spread is big, no int/div = very costly.

no sure answer for u, but suggest u take a look at foreign funds/bourse, e.g. singapore reits which give dividends or us etfs.

check the section, the threads r there.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 6 2015, 06:02 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 6 2015, 06:42 PM

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QUOTE(Croner @ Jan 6 2015, 06:26 PM)
??? I dun understamd dude. So is money changer the only way?
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if u din follow me, u do hv quite a bit to read up and act...

basically, i was saying:

... money changer, you buy sgd with rm at say 2.70, if u sell immediately after buying , u get only 2.60, u already lost 3-4%. this is called spread - money changers earn it, that's their biz.

... if u put money in stocks, sgreits, etc. the spread is much less, 0.5% thereabout. of course, there is risk in that: prices can go up or down.

... if doing this for very short term, money changer maybe ok. for longer term, better look at the other options as u will also lose out w/o interest or dividends.

... read:
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2504121/+820
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3397675/+400
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3396549/+60

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 6 2015, 06:44 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 6 2015, 07:25 PM

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QUOTE(velocitycnr @ Jan 6 2015, 07:15 PM)
RM3.55 for 1 USD. This is ridiculous  sad.gif
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not at all.
where u were in 1997?
usd/rm = 3.80. fd rates >10%.


the big question to ask now is what will help strengthen rm and if these elements are there or will happen?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 6 2015, 07:26 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 6 2015, 11:23 PM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jan 6 2015, 10:52 PM)
Dun understand why they put fd rate more than 10that time.. can explain?
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it's not that the banks want it, but market forces demand it. until u put capital controls.

the rm was freely traded overseas before. when the currency attack got underway, the rm was heavily sold overseas.
overseas banks were offering 15-20% int for rm becos they know the result will be the rm will lose 30% value or so when it is done.
thai baht, indon rupiah same result.
i can tell u at that time, some people were carrying bags of rm on the plane to deposit offshore.

actually even now, weak economy countries have int rates >10% like brazil, argentina, nigeria, russia.

u can read more here as to how it happend - credit bubbles, hot money, etc...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 6 2015, 11:25 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2015, 08:49 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Jan 7 2015, 03:45 AM)
In 1998, USD/MYR was at its lowest of 4.40.
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yes, it was. i just don't remember how low except it was pegged at 3.80 eventually.
QUOTE(MGM @ Jan 7 2015, 08:16 AM)
Read somewhere that the reserve then was only USD30 billion but now is USD110 billion.
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usd125bil.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/f...change-reserves

QUOTE(TruthHurts @ Jan 7 2015, 05:29 AM)
Last time it falls to RM4.40 but the government have enough reserved to circulate the money .. till now RM ever got to 3.0 = 1usd. Last time it was like 2.7 = 1usd. How many years now and we still can't recover below 3.0 = 1usd.
And now with all the shits that happen .. I doubt we can recover to 3.0 or yet we might go 5.0 = 1usd and stay there for a couple of years.
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before 1997, it was 2.50 for a long time, when sgd/rm = 1. now, sgd = rm2.67.

seems our gomen doesnt want the rm to appr but rather happy to see it depreciate in a controlled manner. if not,why wud bnm not intervene now with so much reserves... unless they want it that way - help exports which are hurting now. now, that in turn hurt the consumers having to pay higher prices in rm. even food and basic stuff, how much is produced locally, how much imported? my feeling is over the decades, we hv been producing less n less, importing more n more...? add base inflation, gst, etc = more pain!!

peg... if it is that easy, everyone will peg 1:1 to usd, everybody eat McD or huge steak for same price!! tongue.gif an economy like many around the world, that consumes, use debt easily n quickly, waste resources, does not produce/export much, low productivity popn = eventually get a weak currency, people poor. compare usa/germany/south korea/singapore vs india/russia/turkey/argentina.



so... i see few reasons for rm to strengthen anytime soon. crude price recover... ya, maybe 1-2 yrs? meanwhile, i wud expect rm to decline further. 3.80 is not unreal, imo. and gomen may just be happy with it...?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 7 2015, 08:51 AM
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2015, 09:36 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 7 2015, 09:15 AM)
That's why BNM doesn't make a move until now.
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yep, looks like it - no intervention even today:

usd 3.58
sgd 2.68

imports in usd or sgd will surely jump in price in no time...
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2015, 01:18 PM

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i dun speak for others...

it is neither panic nor attempt to profit.

just an effort to protect hard earned n saved funds from losing too much purchasing power.

anyway, ok to continue discussion or laugh it off. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2015, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(topearn @ Jan 7 2015, 01:59 PM)
Money changer spread is actually very low....definitely less than 1%

SGD  SINGAPORE DOLLAR  2.645  2.660        2.66/2.645 = only 0.57%

SD  US DOLLAR  3.535  3.565              3.565/3.535 = only 0.85%

I went for overseas hol last mth and if I were to exchange back the USD$ to RM which I still have leftover, I would have made over 8% profit
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thanks for info, haven't been to money changer in a long time!

that is probably among the better ones.
AVFAN
post Jan 8 2015, 08:50 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 7 2015, 09:15 AM)
That's why BNM doesn't make a move until now.
*
here we go:

QUOTE
Malaysia’s Foreign Reserves Fall 14 Percent to Lowest Since 2011
By Liau Y-Sing  Jan 8, 2015 6:42 PM GMT+0800  0 Comments  Email  Print

Malaysia’s foreign-exchange reserves dropped to the lowest level since March 2011, a sign the central bank may have intervened to stem a slide in Southeast Asia’s worst-performing currency.

The holdings fell 14 percent to $116 billion as of end-December from a year earlier, Bank Negara Malaysia data showed today. They declined 4 percent from the previous fortnight. The ringgit has weakened 10 percent since June and dropped to a five-year low of 3.5862 a dollar yesterday. It closed 0.4 percent higher at 3.5665 in Kuala Lumpur today.

A slide in global crude prices has put pressure on the ringgit, posing a revenue risk for oil-exporting Malaysia, which is seeking to lower the fiscal deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product in 2015 from 3.5 percent. The central bank may have intervened in the first two weeks of December to stem the currency’s slide, UBS AG strategists including Gareth Berry wrote in a research note earlier today.

Malaysia’s foreign reserves were supported by a bigger current-account surplus and foreign direct investment inflows in 2014, Bank Negara said in a statement. The holdings can finance 8.4 months of retained imports and are 1.1 times the short-term external debt, it said.

“The reserves are expected to remain ample in 2015, supported by trade and investment inflows,” Bank Negara said.

Debt Holdings

The central bank told local lenders last month to guard against speculation in its currency. All short-dated transactions requiring the exchange of ringgit for a foreign currency must be backed by documentation, Bank Negara Malaysia said in a Dec. 4 statement.

Concern about the nation’s finances is already starting to show in the local-currency debt market, where global funds reduced holdings of Malaysian government and corporate debt in November by 5.8 percent, the most since September 2011, to 236.5 billion ringgit ($66.2 billion), official data showed Dec. 31.

The impact on the ringgit from the drop in oil is “amplified by the heavy foreign presence” in bonds and equities, the UBS report said. Valuation effects will distort today’s reserves numbers, magnifying any drop, as the dollar rally into year-end lowered the U.S. currency value held in other currencies, it said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-08/m...since-2011.html


let's hope there is enough to intervene n not let it go beyond 3.60!
AVFAN
post Jan 11 2015, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(Croner @ Jan 10 2015, 01:39 PM)
USD to MYR stuck in 3.57 many days. oh gosh
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watch 30 jan, maybe some major development. if negative one, more drama with severe implications may unfold.

QUOTE


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 11 2015, 02:20 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 11 2015, 08:06 PM

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QUOTE(Battlefield1942 @ Jan 11 2015, 05:50 PM)
One thing for sure, the coming year of goat will be more costly one as imported stuff price is higher now. Even for IT stuff. The price keep on increasing when it always gone down before. Now is trying to think what will benefit when RM is down beside changing to US$. Will Malaysian government borrowing rate will go up?
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my concern is food and medicine prices.

we grow little food, import mostly.
and there are >5mil foreign workers eating everyday and needing medicines too.
add gst in april, it will not be pretty.

how to hedge/benefit from low rm...?
some have suggested getting stock of usd exports cos. like glove n condoms but i dun see their stock prices escalating with such poor sentiments now.
ok, one idea- buy pc, ipad, iphone, imported goodies quick! tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 11 2015, 08:15 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 13 2015, 07:05 PM

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QUOTE(Battlefield1942 @ Jan 11 2015, 08:45 PM)
My hobby already hit since December when the pre-order kit price raise by RM10-15 each kit and shipment switch to surface to save cost due to rising US$. Daiso shop - if you buy from aboard one will notice it cost 6% higher after exchange to RM when it suppose to be RM5/= all over the world. Hopefully,it can be even out by dropping petrol price. I switch to RON 97 to clean my old engine! I hear many immigrants is heading this way due to starvation and rising rice price along the border of bangla-myanmar border. No way one can stop starving people. I think we can deposit into US dollar account at our local bank like UOB etc. They also have Aus and NZ dollar too. If have extra $$$ then can open one as it similar to fd but it have higher risk too due to exchange rate. I once put 5K into Am currency II and after maturity - it lost money but it capital protected so I still get RM19/= for my two year.
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more pain coming...

today 3.592/3.595.
QUOTE


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 13 2015, 07:05 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 10 2015, 07:12 PM

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QUOTE(Croner @ Mar 10 2015, 07:07 PM)
Usd 1 to rm3.67 now In all Forex Malaysia.
they are selling myr hard to buy USD.
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u started this thread in jan, 3.57

u must be one happy person.

not 3.67, should be 3.70.

try tmrw. maybe 3.73.

https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3470081/+100

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 10 2015, 07:13 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 10 2015, 09:28 PM

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not only rm. many other currencies too.

not sure what to think... maybe another global currency-oil crisis looming?

QUOTE
Dollar at 12-year peak vs euro, emerging markets spooked

The prospect of rising U.S. yields threatened to draw funds away from emerging markets, causing strains from Brazil to Turkey. The Brazilian real led the rout, having fallen for the sixth straight session.

The pressure then spread through Asia and Africa with the South Korean won hitting its lowest since late August 2013, the Singapore dollar since 2010 and South Africa's rand in 13 years.

Eastern Europe was also heavily in the red. Selling accelerated for Poland's zloty, the Czech crown, Romania's leu and Hungary's forint while MSCI's main emerging market stock index fell for its eighth day running.

"At times like these it is really the currency moves, nobody really cares about the carry anymore," said Jeffries emerging markets strategist Richard Segal.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/d...markets-spooked

AVFAN
post Mar 11 2015, 12:23 AM

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QUOTE(dwin95 @ Mar 11 2015, 12:01 AM)
so its a good time to hold some aud/yen at this point? I spend a lot of US dollars and this exchange rate is killing me
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this is always the question - is it too early or too late to do it now?

nobody knows... but we do know:

.. just about all currencies have declined against usd incl aud n yen.
.. aud has not fared better than rm; worse, in fact.
.. aud recovery will have to come from strong demand in commodities incl iron ore which looks unlikely for now.
.. there has been scanty reports of some usd profit taking of late
.. us int rate hike now expected in june but is not a sure thing, may be later
.. "buy on the rumur, sell on the news"?!

if u spend usd regularly, why bother with aud or yen? why not just buy n hold usd?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 11 2015, 12:32 AM
AVFAN
post Mar 16 2015, 08:42 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Mar 14 2015, 03:35 PM)
FOREX: Ringgit To Gain Momentum Next Week As Dollar Retreats
http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v8/bu/newsm....php?id=1116910
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every weekend, bernama issue the same statements - bursa will up, rm will up. ok, 50% of the time they will be correct.

early monday, oil price dropping, rm->3.702/usd, -0.4%.

QUOTE(stanzai @ Mar 15 2015, 09:44 AM)
I dont think the current condition will allow that to happen. not in the near future at least.
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u mean they will try to peg or not peg?

so far, there is little evidence bnm has even intervened...
AVFAN
post Mar 16 2015, 08:59 AM

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QUOTE(stanzai @ Mar 16 2015, 08:56 AM)
i think it will not peg in near future.

I am just looking at the trend, last peg was done during the reign of Dr.M era which pretty much practice anti west policies and more to the pro east policies.

Looking at the current reigning leader with the "good" relation to the west with all its golfing,etc. I am guessing there should be huge investment done in USD and what not. So dont make sense to me if they going to peg it soon.

I may be wrong, i dont know.
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i also think they will not peg but let it float.

actually bnm has alluded to that some weeks ago, if not mistaken.

pegging is expensive, will take a lot of resources and may backfire in the end.
AVFAN
post Mar 16 2015, 06:11 PM

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QUOTE(Croner @ Mar 16 2015, 05:41 PM)
Wah 3.76 bad deal, should go mid valley money changer
*
yes, that looks high as bnm rates closing rates today: 3.7035, 3.7065.

likely it's bank deposit, not cash, inclusive of commission, etc...

still, if doing biz n need usd to pay soon, may not be bad.

good read for those interested:

QUOTE
Bloomberg View
How Asia should defend against the rising dollar
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/h...t-rising-dollar

AVFAN
post Mar 20 2015, 06:57 AM

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one analyst's view..


QUOTE
Friday, 20 March 2015 06:04
Ringgit could fall to 3.95 against U.S. dollar by Sept, economist

PETALING JAYA - Macquarie Research expects the ringgit to depreciate further to 3.95 against the dollar by September, before ending the year at RM3.82, boosting exports and trade surplus, said its Asean economist P.K. Basu.

"Malaysia is indeed a net exporter of oil (the only one in East Asia apart from Brunei), but its net exports of oil are small (the value of crude-oil exports being partly offset by imports of refined product). Sluggishness in palm oil and rubber prices, as well as plunging crude oil prices, clearly hurt sentiment toward Malaysia and had a negative impact on the earnings of listed companies in the oil services and plantation sectors," he said in his research note.

Basu said the central bank appears to be comfortable with further ringgit depreciation although the nation's terms of trade have not deteriorated.

"Despite a perceived deterioration in Malaysia's terms of trade (with the decline in crude oil prices and sluggishness in palm oil and rubber prices), the trade surplus has remained large. Exports (in US$) have declined 5% year-on-year in the latest three months (November 2014 till January 2015), but imports have declined an even sharper 6.6% year-on-year, widening the trade balance to a monthly surplus of US$2.83 billion during the latest three months," said Basu.

He said periods of large depreciation of the ringgit have been relatively rare over the past 20 years but when it depreciated 8% to 10% year-on-year, there has typically been a rebound in exports and the trade surplus after about six months.

The biggest depreciation was in 1998, followed by dramatic rebound in exports and trade surplus in 1999 and 2000 while in 2009, ringgit depreciation similarly resulted in an export-led rebound from October 2009 and the 8% depreciation in the year to Januar 2014 bolstered trade surplus in the first half of 2014.

"The recent episode of ringgit depreciation should similarly boost exports by Q2 2015, and allow a widening of the trade surplus in April-September 2015," he said.

During Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) briefing on the annual report last week, the deputy governor emphasised the "terms of trade shock" that Malaysia has experienced in the past half year, which he said justified the depreciation of the ringgit, primarily as a means to temper the decline in farm incomes from the decline in export-commodity prices.

"While we recognise the social benefits of offsetting the latter, we note that Malaysia's terms of trade have not actually deteriorated significantly. Not only are Malaysia's exports and imports dominated by non-commodity manufactures (led by electronics), but even the oil terms of trade have not deteriorated significantly," said Basu.

Despite the ringgit being the worst performing currency in Asia this year and the issues surrounding 1MDB, Basu said there is still light beyond the "dark tunnel".

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to decelerate this year to 4.5% growth as private consumption is reined in to 5.4% year-on-year growth, in response to the imposition of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in April.

"Inflation is 1% year-on-year, and set to rise moderately to about 2.5% year-on-year with the imposition of the GST in Q2 2015. The latter (being a tax on consumption) will boost the savings rate, thus bolstering Malaysia's current account surplus. With inflation much lower than it previously projected, we expect BNM to cut the overnight policy rate (OPR) 25bp in Q2 2015," he said.

Basu expects BNM to cut the OPR at its May 2015 meeting or no later than the July meeting, and to keep it at that level through 2016. Consequently, an investment- and export-led rebound to 6.1% real GDP growth in 2016 can be expected
. - Sundaily

Full article: http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.ph...3#ixzz3UsJTArSx
Follow us: @MsiaChronicle on Twitter



AVFAN
post Mar 20 2015, 06:02 PM

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QUOTE(Croner @ Mar 20 2015, 12:04 PM)
See  predicted right biggrin.gif
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yr prediction is not right yet, but is concurred by that analyst. other analysts may say different. we'll just have to see.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/r...isk-oil-slump-0
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/u...orld-bank-chief

QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Mar 20 2015, 12:34 PM)
My income in USD...
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today 3.73. from jan 2015, u already got 2.75% increase. enjoy while it lasts.

QUOTE(tommy_thaitanium @ Mar 20 2015, 02:02 PM)
Nice to meet you guys. I've read thru all your responses on this thread. Since you guys are experienced, I'd like to seek for your wise/supportive advice.
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not qualified to advise... but just a comment...
selling off house and moving out for good is a major-major decision.
u should not let exchange rates get into the way.
if i am doing it, i will just do it with a major bank, and move on.
one thing, if u rush to sell yr house, this can be a killer - unless u get lucky, u will need to discount significantly.
if possible, take sufficient time to sell. talking from experience! laugh.gif

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