If 1ndb bond bond issued is not resolved by this month end, could expect myr/usd rate to drop further.

USD 1 to myr 3.70 is not unexpected.

MYR/USD=4, MYR/SGD=3 is within reach by year end.

If people in the trade are hoarding could only mean one thing. The question is will this get out of hand or bnm will air freight in a pallet of US$ bills to flood the market.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jul 22 2015, 12:12 PM

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...merging-markets

If contemporary history is any precedent, expect MYR to weaken or US$ to strengthen further.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jul 24 2015, 08:58 PM

Malaysia’s foreign-exchange reserves are set to drop below $100 billion just when the nation most needs a buffer against any collapse in investor confidence.

It doesn’t help that the holdings were last below that mark during the 2008 global credit crunch and the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. The decline reflects intervention to support the ringgit, which breached its 1998 peg level of 3.8 a dollar this month and sank to a 16-year low. Default risk for Malaysia has climbed at least 40 basis points above that of Thailand and the Philippines as dollar bond prices fall for both a troubled state investment company and the country’s state oil producer.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...at-wrong-moment

It seems admiration for Zeti and BNM is not enough to defense MYR.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jul 31 2015, 02:30 PM

Instead of wasting more Forex reserve, bnm will soon putting up interest rate.

Myr is not depreciating against USD only but also Euro, GBP, SGD, rmb, etc.

Ministers always say mys economy is resilient, a few % interest rate rise certainly won't kill the economy.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 6 2015, 04:31 PM

With so many kiasu tourists exchanging for myr, myr will rise next week. Time to short US$.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 8 2015, 11:12 AM

Banks won't be paying interest, why will die first?

According to jolokia, showtime747, zuiko407, etc most borrowers have gold and silver mountain backing, a few % interest rate rise will cost some dimsum lunch only. Where you get the idea people will go bankrupt?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 10 2015, 11:35 PM

May be statistics department didn't include them in the survey, hence high household debt/income ratio.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 11 2015, 01:00 AM

Some said zeti and bnm is most admired internationally. It seem admiration is not enough to stop myr depreciation.

Unless bnm impose capital control and rise bank interest rate, 4.20 is probable.

GDP growth over 4.5%, kV property price setting new high, people queued over night for new launch, luxury cars sales double digit growth; what weak indicator?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 12 2015, 01:03 AM

Could the gomen allowed myr devaluation on purpose to lead to inflation so that elevated household debt could be reduced?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 12 2015, 09:43 AM

Inflation reduce real value of money.

Don't underestimate our gomen capability, their strategy could be unconventional like capital control in 1997.

Why would banks outside Malaysia want to hold myr at the first place?

If rmb depreciate further, more funds will pull from emerging markey, myr will under more pressure.