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 USA Stock Discussion v6, Midterm Elections! U.S. Jobs Report!

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wodenus
post Mar 14 2015, 01:16 AM

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QUOTE(oe_kintaro @ Mar 14 2015, 01:14 AM)
from what I hear US rate hike will likely be July to Sept time frame.
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That's the plan but how are they going to execute it with the market in this condition?

This post has been edited by wodenus: Mar 14 2015, 01:16 AM
oe_kintaro
post Mar 14 2015, 01:17 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 14 2015, 01:16 AM)
That's the plan but he are they going to execute it with the market in this condition?
*
US is improving, but if Yellen puts the rate hike too early everything could stop in its tracks, so maybe later than sooner.
wodenus
post Mar 14 2015, 01:20 AM

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QUOTE(oe_kintaro @ Mar 14 2015, 01:17 AM)
US is improving, but if Yellen puts the rate hike too early everything could stop in its tracks, so maybe later than sooner.
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A three-week decline is a strange definition of improving smile.gif but yes exactly that, they can't risk it now, they will have to wait.
oe_kintaro
post Mar 14 2015, 01:28 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 14 2015, 01:20 AM)
A three-week decline is a strange definition of improving smile.gif  but yes exactly that, they can't risk it now, they will have to wait.
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I'm referring to the overall US economy not just the equities. It's still relatively rosy compared to the other place. Low oil prices are good for their economy.
wodenus
post Mar 14 2015, 01:33 AM

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QUOTE(oe_kintaro @ Mar 14 2015, 01:28 AM)
I'm referring to the overall US economy not just the equities. It's still relatively rosy compared to the other place. Low oil prices are good for their economy.
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Well equities are the economy right? If equities are down and the economy is up, shouldnt people be buying equities right now? It seems that way to me.
oe_kintaro
post Mar 14 2015, 01:41 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 14 2015, 01:33 AM)
Well equities are the economy right? If equities are down and the economy is up, shouldnt people be buying equities right now? It seems that way to me.
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no, equities are not really the economy anymore, they're forward looking. The various QEs made sure that there was more money than anyone would dare to use. So since the banks are unable to lend out, they put into equities.
wodenus
post Mar 14 2015, 01:48 AM

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QUOTE(oe_kintaro @ Mar 14 2015, 01:41 AM)
no, equities are not really the economy anymore, they're forward looking. The various QEs made sure that there was more money than anyone would dare to use. So since the banks are unable to lend out, they put into equities.
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OK so the market is going to continue to tank while the economy improves? But then people will have a lot of money with no place to put it.
yok70
post Mar 14 2015, 02:10 AM

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oh yeah, 2000 still got hope.... brows.gif

wow, oil crashing....$40 coming? biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Mar 14 2015, 02:11 AM
danmooncake
post Mar 14 2015, 02:39 AM

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Where's Auntie Yellen.... whistling.gif
netmask8
post Mar 14 2015, 07:31 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 13 2015, 09:57 PM)
If  1 USD=RM 3.8, then it is back to pegged value (10 years ago).
One round trip.  biggrin.gif

If it goes down further... 1 USD to RM 4.00 or higher (drool.gif), I may buy another house in M'sia.  tongue.gif
*
More inflows into the country as local currency despreciates, while local ppls might hold/stop travelling overseas
with present exchg rate. thumbup.gif
netmask8
post Mar 14 2015, 07:37 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Mar 14 2015, 02:10 AM)
oh yeah, 2000 still got hope.... brows.gif

wow, oil crashing....$40 coming?  biggrin.gif
*
Strong USD, Debt Ceiling Limit 15th March 2015, Markets look forward for FED interest rate,
lock profit taking in overvalue market with strong greenback ?
mikehwy
post Mar 14 2015, 09:05 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 13 2015, 09:57 PM)
If  1 USD=RM 3.8, then it is back to pegged value (10 years ago).
One round trip.  biggrin.gif

If it goes down further... 1 USD to RM 4.00 or higher (drool.gif), I may buy another house in M'sia.   tongue.gif
*
Dan you hv just reminded me of my most painful years.
things were crumpling, everything seemed worth nothing during our historic selective capital controls.
Damn, I thot i hv forgotten those years. If rm hits 4.0 i just cant imagine what could be the impact. dont think i can last another round of 'crisis' ?

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Mar 14 2015, 09:06 AM
oe_kintaro
post Mar 14 2015, 10:57 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 14 2015, 01:48 AM)
OK so the market is going to continue to tank while the economy improves? But then people will have a lot of money with no place to put it.
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Not people, mostly banks I think.
wodenus
post Mar 14 2015, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(oe_kintaro @ Mar 14 2015, 10:57 AM)
Not people, mostly banks I think.
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Well unemployment rate is dropping, wages are going up, people will soon be rich again. And then interest rates will go up, which will make them richer.
oe_kintaro
post Mar 14 2015, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 14 2015, 11:01 AM)
Well unemployment rate is dropping, wages are going up, people will soon be rich again. And then interest rates will go up, which will make them richer.
*
Interest rates affect cost of borrowing and doing business. Again, if Yellen pulls the trigger too early, the whole thing could potentially grind to a halt. That has happened before. Chances are the US will want to make hay while the sun shines and delay the rate hike a bit.
danmooncake
post Mar 14 2015, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Mar 14 2015, 09:05 AM)
Dan you hv just reminded me of my most painful years.
things were crumpling, everything seemed worth nothing during our historic selective capital controls.
Damn,  I thot i hv forgotten those years. If rm hits 4.0 i just cant imagine what could be the impact. dont think i can last another round of  'crisis' ?
*
Don't worry. If you're like me, you've been through tough times.
The second round, you will know what to do and be more prepared.

In '97 after the crisis, I left M'sia and went over S'pore. Even S'pore not immune. 2 1/2 years later,
dot com bubble hit US and it hit S'pore even worse than Malaysia '97 crisis. I was devasted. Lost my apartment, car and everything. Left S'pore to USA to start over.

In '08 financial crisis hits USA, I was better prepared. Maintained my portfolio well, and I was able to get thru it.
When it recovers later, my net worth grew 3x times over when everyone was still suffering.

If another big one hit M'sia (the signs are here...) just get ready to tough it out. You should be hardened by now.
Opportunities are also here. nod.gif
wodenus
post Mar 14 2015, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 14 2015, 11:06 AM)
Don't worry. If you're like me, you've been through tough times.
The second round, you will know what to do and be more prepared.

In '97 after the crisis, I left M'sia and went over S'pore. Even S'pore not immune. 2 1/2 years later,
dot com bubble hit US and it hit S'pore even worse than Malaysia '97 crisis. I was devasted. Lost my apartment, car and everything. Left S'pore to USA to start over.

In '08 financial crisis hits USA, I was better prepared. Maintained my portfolio well, and I was able to get thru it.
When it recovers later, my net worth grew 3x times over when everyone was still suffering.

If another big one hit M'sia (the signs are here...) just get ready to tough it out. You should be hardened by now.
Opportunities are also here.   nod.gif
*
If you lost everything how did you have the money to move? If you are declared a bankrupt you have to return to your home country and are forbidden to travel out of it right?

This post has been edited by wodenus: Mar 14 2015, 11:15 AM
AVFAN
post Mar 14 2015, 11:23 AM

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QUOTE(oe_kintaro @ Mar 14 2015, 11:05 AM)
Chances are the US will want to make hay while the sun shines and delay the rate hike a bit.
*
i think so too. while yellen/fed maintains their hawkish stance, they r not stupid not to see what other nations r doing to their rates n currencies now. likely they will take their time to hike rate since other nations may already be doing the job for them!

QUOTE(mikehwy @ Mar 14 2015, 09:05 AM)
If rm hits 4.0 i just cant imagine what could be the impact. dont think i can last another round of  'crisis' ?
*
QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 14 2015, 11:06 AM)
Don't worry. If you're like me, you've been through tough times.
*
yep, the old gets wiser. biggrin.gif

at this time, indications r the usd trend will continue given europe only just started a massive qe program and all commodity prices - from oil to gold to sugar - continue to slump to multi yr lows. all emerging markets and commodity exporting nations are pretty helpless as this time. what is scary is if and when china do a massive qe too! it's currency wars at work.
danmooncake
post Mar 14 2015, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 14 2015, 11:14 AM)
If you lost everything how did you have the money to move? If you are declared a bankrupt you have to return to your home country and are forbidden to travel out of it right?
*
No, I was not bankrupt but my bank account down to a few hundred after I paid all my creditors.
My dad (bless his heart) helped me to get started again with his emergency fund and one way ticket to US.
wodenus
post Mar 14 2015, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 14 2015, 11:28 AM)
No, I was not bankrupt but my bank account down to a few hundred after I paid all my creditors.
My dad (bless his heart) helped me to get started again with his emergency fund and one way ticket to US.
*
You had nice parents smile.gif

This post has been edited by wodenus: Mar 14 2015, 11:34 AM

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