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 USA Stock Discussion v6, Midterm Elections! U.S. Jobs Report!

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SUSMNet
post Mar 14 2015, 10:19 PM

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how u all hedge US/MYR if u transfer RM to USD brokerage account?
let say now rm3.7=USD1

then after few month forex rate change to rm3.5=USD1.

we're losing rm0.2/USD

pls advise on how to deal with these situation
oe_kintaro
post Mar 14 2015, 11:55 PM

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QUOTE(MNet @ Mar 14 2015, 10:19 PM)
how u all hedge US/MYR if u transfer RM to USD brokerage account?
let say now rm3.7=USD1

then after few month forex rate change to rm3.5=USD1.

we're losing rm0.2/USD

pls advise on how to deal with these situation
*
Not sure how to do that, but the chance of MYR gaining 0.2 vs the USD are super slim for this year.... I'm more worried about moving the money out of the country vs moving it back in at the moment. As much as possible I don't want to bring my money back to Malaysia because I expect the MYR to weaken even further.
danmooncake
post Mar 15 2015, 08:31 AM

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QUOTE(MNet @ Mar 14 2015, 10:19 PM)
how u all hedge US/MYR if u transfer RM to USD brokerage account?
let say now rm3.7=USD1

then after few month forex rate change to rm3.5=USD1.

we're losing rm0.2/USD

pls advise on how to deal with these situation
*
QUOTE(oe_kintaro @ Mar 14 2015, 11:55 PM)
Not sure how to do that, but the chance of MYR gaining 0.2 vs the USD are super slim for this year.... I'm more worried about moving the money out of the country vs moving it back in at the moment. As much as possible I don't want to bring my money back to Malaysia because I expect the MYR to weaken even further.
*
IMO, if one has not hedged since 1 USD=RM3.20 (this was the last breakout), then it is too late now.
Better stay put.

Everytime you buy/sell forex, there is a spread which eats into your profits unless
you have at least 5 figures to trade.

Wait till Ringgit appreciates in value again (or USD falls). Everything comes in cycle.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Mar 15 2015, 08:32 AM
SUSMNet
post Mar 15 2015, 09:00 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 15 2015, 08:31 AM)
IMO, if one has not hedged since 1 USD=RM3.20 (this was the last breakout), then it is too late now.
Better stay put. 

Everytime you buy/sell forex, there is a spread which eats into your profits unless
you have at least 5 figures to trade.

Wait till Ringgit appreciates in value again (or USD falls).  Everything comes in cycle.
*
at USD brokerage acc, i'm fully invested, no more fund to buy stock.

that why seeking opinion whether is it good time to TT in more RM to USD brokerage account but the forex too high rm3.7=usd1.

still remember last time I deposit is RM3.3 =USD 1
AVFAN
post Mar 15 2015, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(MNet @ Mar 15 2015, 09:00 AM)
at USD brokerage acc, i'm fully invested, no more fund to buy stock.

that why seeking opinion whether is it good time to TT in more RM to USD brokerage account but the forex too high rm3.7=usd1.
*
i faced this challenge when rate was 3.4, 3.5, 3.6.

i place more emphasis on the usd price of the equity, if it is a good price to buy at any time. if i m targeting a certain stock at a certain price, i most likely will just go for it if it hits the price.

but yes, it is more difficult now that it is 3.7. the only thing i can do now is get really picky and patient. if it is simply too costly in my view, i just don't buy.

fx spread at even 0.3% is not a big problem unless u trade a lot, which i don't.

scenario of 3.7->3.5... in the foreseeable future, if one actually think that may happen, it will make no sense to buy us stocks. better off putting in bursa or vanilla fd.

as to the question will it go from 3.7 to 3.73, 3.77, 3.80, 4.0... who knows, who dare to say? everyone assesses the variables differently. what i read, there is no consensus where it will get to and stabilize. so, for now, i just to watch the number every morning.



yok70
post Mar 15 2015, 09:14 PM

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thing is, malaysia economy now quite unstable. First of course is the oil price, more and more negative sentiment in recent weeks, may visit $40 soon. GST, 2 weeks later, may see more volatile local market, most likely FF selling down. Politically, Ah Jib gor recently got whacked by its own party, if Malaysia goes politically unstable once again + using the knife of 1MDB, FF will sell big time. Minor effect, PKR also may break up soon. All these will lead to weaker RM. 4? easily achieving.

however, lets hope market do its magic. Just like many past events, unpredictable. When most people shout negative, market moved the other way, up up and up. Gold, USD both happening now in this manner.

cool2.gif
netmask8
post Mar 15 2015, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Mar 15 2015, 09:14 PM)
thing is, malaysia economy now quite unstable. First of course is the oil price, more and more negative sentiment in recent weeks, may visit $40 soon. GST, 2 weeks later, may see more volatile local market, most likely FF selling down. Politically, Ah Jib gor recently got whacked by its own party, if Malaysia goes politically unstable once again + using the knife of 1MDB, FF will sell big time. Minor effect, PKR also may break up soon. All these will lead to weaker RM. 4? easily achieving.

however, lets hope market do its magic. Just like many past events, unpredictable. When most people shout negative, market moved the other way, up up and up. Gold, USD both happening now in this manner.

cool2.gif
*
RM 4 = 1 USD ? Not only RM, other major currencies also depreciates against the greenback, because
FED stopped QE and plan to hikes interest rates gradually. Crude Oil trade in USD and because of strong USD,
crude oil price won't increase and go back to previous 7 -8 months ago price. 1MDB temporary issue is due to insufficient short term cashflow / current ratio ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_ratio ). Why? Because of strong nation economics leads to many construction development projects here. If you are a Petrol Producer
Company here, will you want to dig more oil and sell the oil at this price ? Think about equilibrium. If the oil produce cost is higher than the market price, why do you want to dig more and sell / long term peg selling at this price?
Every month 9M salaried employees got deducted(employer n employee portions) from salary and channeled to KWSP.. Every month KWSP is receiving monies.. Still got PETRONAS,
KWSP and strong BNM Foreign Reserve. You money is safe in the bank. For USA Stocks, it is safe either in local
bank or foreign Brokers..

Good thing on weak RM. Tourism Business(more inflow, ppls jobs), many ppls hold on their oversea holiday vacation and go local vacation(less RM outflows, ppls jobs), many ppls hold on on luxury goods and use local if needed(less outflow) many FOREIGNERS and Singaporean ppls buying property here, palm oil and other commodities 's demand more due to weak RM, if you target China and India markets.If PAS implements HUDUD and ban all entertainments/Casino/4D/TOTO,
will be even WORSE, as no income to Govt if they in PutraJaya. Maybe, block all internet access to foreign forex broker/stock market brokers?? rclxub.gif Foreign Forex/Stock Market is haram to them? How come dosmetic issues will impact USA Stock Discussion here ? unsure.gif hmm.gif

This post has been edited by netmask8: Mar 15 2015, 10:10 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 16 2015, 10:37 AM

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this may be interesting and significant on the usd:

QUOTE
Beware the $300 Billion Shift Into Treasuries Coming From Japan

The greenback is forecast to climb 4.6 percent further against the yen in the coming year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ming-from-japan

AVFAN
post Mar 16 2015, 10:44 PM

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oil in trouble again!

this time, <40 looks real...

fortunate i dumped some last week at breakeven. tongue.gif

s&p, healthcare, tech, all looking well - that's good. biggrin.gif

i'm doubtful anyone here hold any AMBA (Ambarella) but i just bought some. a maker of hi-res cameras for drones. i dream of it becoming another fruit co. in a less than a decade. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 16 2015, 10:48 PM
danmooncake
post Mar 16 2015, 10:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 16 2015, 10:44 PM)
oil in trouble again!

this time, <40 looks real...

fortunate i dumped some last week at breakeven. tongue.gif

*
Let see if $40 can hold or not... just $4 away sweat.gif
yok70
post Mar 16 2015, 11:01 PM

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been waiting for $40 for weeks if not months. icon_rolleyes.gif
where is the 2000 or 1950 though? won't come? biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Mar 16 2015, 11:10 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Mar 16 2015, 11:01 PM)
been waiting for $40 for weeks if not months.  icon_rolleyes.gif
where is the 2000 or 1950 though? won't come?  biggrin.gif
*
even if oil goes to 40, i'm nervous...

think a couple of hundred million barrels now on supertankers and land depots.

wonder if some will just burn or dump somewhere when they run out of storage...? sweat.gif

while prices have dropped, the fallout in the chain will take months if not years.

well, if saudi/opec says they will cut production, that's major. but they just said can count on china n middle east!


yok70
post Mar 16 2015, 11:39 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 16 2015, 11:10 PM)
even if oil goes to 40, i'm nervous...

think a couple of hundred million barrels now on supertankers and land depots.

wonder if some will just burn or dump somewhere when they run out of storage...? sweat.gif

while prices have dropped, the fallout in the chain will take months if not years.

well, if saudi/opec says they will cut production, that's major. but they just said can count on china n middle east!
*
it's a game that the big boys holding the ball, highly manipulated. If the crisis is short of oil, that would be a tough one. But now, it's oversupply, that's manageable, just about strategy. For us, the guessing game is, where is the bottom in the big boys mind. laugh.gif
danmooncake
post Mar 17 2015, 02:16 AM

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Oil bouncing...and I'm seeing a pop for XLE... above $75 now. thumbup.gif


AVFAN
post Mar 17 2015, 02:27 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 17 2015, 02:16 AM)
Oil bouncing...and I'm seeing a pop for XLE... above $75 now.  thumbup.gif
*
yep, saw that.

all my tickers green now - hitting the sack, goodnight! biggrin.gif
yok70
post Mar 17 2015, 03:15 AM

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debt ceiling talk once again.
but really, what the hack is debt ceiling? who cares. As long as not defaulting, nice nice pay the interest, who cares how large US debt becomes. laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Mar 17 2015, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Mar 17 2015, 03:15 AM)
debt ceiling talk once again.
but really, what the hack is debt ceiling? who cares. As long as not defaulting, nice nice pay the interest, who cares how large US debt becomes.  laugh.gif
*
this debt ceiling is a battle between the 2 parties over military spending, mostly.

there will be no consequence to markets. tongue.gif



and... interesting to see oil/energy rebounded nicely despite oil staying low.
AVFAN
post Mar 17 2015, 10:09 PM

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yo-yo is back...

all red... except the mighty fruit! laugh.gif
yok70
post Mar 18 2015, 01:54 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 17 2015, 10:09 PM)
yo-yo is back...

all red... except the mighty fruit! laugh.gif
*
haiya! fruit, come down play play mah. shakehead.gif
jerrychoo2004
post Mar 18 2015, 09:10 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Mar 18 2015, 01:54 AM)
haiya! fruit, come down play play mah.  shakehead.gif
*
enough of fruit coming down la.....go up up up again leh hehehe
my FB was performing well too tongue.gif

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