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 USA Stock Discussion v6, Midterm Elections! U.S. Jobs Report!

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oe_kintaro
post Jan 6 2015, 09:05 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jan 6 2015, 12:59 AM)
finally, oil at $50.
what's next?  biggrin.gif
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USD46...then USD 33

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oe_kintaro
post Mar 13 2015, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 10 2015, 03:16 PM)
think not so easy...

everyday, there is some report saying "msia abc.xyz worst performer..."

today, this one:
fyi, rm touched 3.70/usd this morning.
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by the end of this year it will probably be around 3.8 sweat.gif
oe_kintaro
post Mar 14 2015, 12:25 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 13 2015, 06:57 PM)
Won't go above 3.7 smile.gif
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actually, the average consensus among the banks is 3.77 by Q4.
oe_kintaro
post Mar 14 2015, 12:54 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 14 2015, 12:27 AM)
Ok. Looks like they are defending at 3.7 though. Anywho, global recession time, do you think?
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The only one optimistic about our RM right now is Zeti. It's true MYR is undervalued but only slightly, and comparatively less vs some other currencies out there.
Right now only US is holding the fort. China is so so. Eurozone is the dogs. However, the various QEs should mean that we will see a lot of free and hot money swirling around in equities. A good time to pick choice Euro stocks if you are playing those. The timing of the next US interest rate hike is the key I think
oe_kintaro
post Mar 14 2015, 01:14 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 14 2015, 01:00 AM)
QE does not seem to be working. US has been in decline for three weeks. Eurozone still dead. US can't hike now will send market into free fall.
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from what I hear US rate hike will likely be July to Sept time frame.
oe_kintaro
post Mar 14 2015, 01:17 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 14 2015, 01:16 AM)
That's the plan but he are they going to execute it with the market in this condition?
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US is improving, but if Yellen puts the rate hike too early everything could stop in its tracks, so maybe later than sooner.
oe_kintaro
post Mar 14 2015, 01:28 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 14 2015, 01:20 AM)
A three-week decline is a strange definition of improving smile.gif  but yes exactly that, they can't risk it now, they will have to wait.
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I'm referring to the overall US economy not just the equities. It's still relatively rosy compared to the other place. Low oil prices are good for their economy.
oe_kintaro
post Mar 14 2015, 01:41 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 14 2015, 01:33 AM)
Well equities are the economy right? If equities are down and the economy is up, shouldnt people be buying equities right now? It seems that way to me.
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no, equities are not really the economy anymore, they're forward looking. The various QEs made sure that there was more money than anyone would dare to use. So since the banks are unable to lend out, they put into equities.
oe_kintaro
post Mar 14 2015, 10:57 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 14 2015, 01:48 AM)
OK so the market is going to continue to tank while the economy improves? But then people will have a lot of money with no place to put it.
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Not people, mostly banks I think.
oe_kintaro
post Mar 14 2015, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 14 2015, 11:01 AM)
Well unemployment rate is dropping, wages are going up, people will soon be rich again. And then interest rates will go up, which will make them richer.
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Interest rates affect cost of borrowing and doing business. Again, if Yellen pulls the trigger too early, the whole thing could potentially grind to a halt. That has happened before. Chances are the US will want to make hay while the sun shines and delay the rate hike a bit.
oe_kintaro
post Mar 14 2015, 11:55 PM

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QUOTE(MNet @ Mar 14 2015, 10:19 PM)
how u all hedge US/MYR if u transfer RM to USD brokerage account?
let say now rm3.7=USD1

then after few month forex rate change to rm3.5=USD1.

we're losing rm0.2/USD

pls advise on how to deal with these situation
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Not sure how to do that, but the chance of MYR gaining 0.2 vs the USD are super slim for this year.... I'm more worried about moving the money out of the country vs moving it back in at the moment. As much as possible I don't want to bring my money back to Malaysia because I expect the MYR to weaken even further.
oe_kintaro
post Mar 18 2015, 09:29 AM

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QUOTE(jerrychoo2004 @ Mar 18 2015, 09:10 AM)
enough of fruit coming down la.....go up up up again leh hehehe
my FB was performing well too tongue.gif
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rclxm9.gif
Yeah waiting for FB to hit 80 biggrin.gif
oe_kintaro
post Mar 18 2015, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 18 2015, 09:31 AM)
i think most of the tech big caps are doing fine. these r profitable, good cashflow cos., not dotcoms for sure.

one subsector not looking good - pc/pc makers. microsoft, intel n the like are going down, giving warnings. becos pc's now getting overwhelmed by smartphones n tablets. but these cos. will adapt, we know, just need time.

aapl has been exceptional. they continue to come out with new products, non stop.
use of solar, apple watch, and now appletv "skinny bundles" - a threat to those big bundles cable tv.
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The future is in the cloud. As long as everyone keeps looking for cat pictures and porn tongue.gif the world's hunger for data storage and transmission will continue to grow.
oe_kintaro
post Mar 18 2015, 10:21 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 18 2015, 10:11 AM)
ya, that's why buffet is betting on ibm.

but ibm price... not looking too good lately....
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There are still other fish in the sea. Clue: look at how information is being generated is being created, stored, retrieved and manipulated. When you understand the whole cycle of data you'll understand why players like Google and FB completely turned the market on its head and why the IBMs and Intels are struggling. There are still HW plays out there but the real game is in software.
There are some really exciting companies out there just waiting to be IPOed. I'm eyeing companies like Palantir which are still privately held but will IPO sooner or later.

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