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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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AVFAN
post Dec 21 2013, 06:24 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Dec 21 2013, 06:08 PM)
Property market is slow. Not much choices that are value for money. Am still waiting to grab one good one.
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now, that is true...

no panic yet. but, can't sell easy.

we'll see by mid 2014 - the infamous year of "tekan rakyat".

question is do u want to buy or sell! smile.gif
klbull
post Dec 21 2013, 06:44 PM

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The thing about a bubble is that you don't even know you are floating in one, so soothing and gentle is the sensation that you don't want it to end, ever. But it will, someday, and that someday is not that far away given economic events in Malaysia that will adversely impact future consumer spending. For highly geared property speculators, good luck for a not too hard landing in 2015/6.
yang1976
post Dec 21 2013, 07:01 PM

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When one has nothing, they can say anything, since they have nothing to loose. Those strong earners should be able to surf thru the storms and deal with the challenges. If you been faking your earning to get loan, you will suffer soon or later if bubble bursts. Good luck!
TOMEI-R
post Dec 21 2013, 07:06 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 21 2013, 06:24 PM)
now, that is true...

no panic yet. but, can't sell easy.

we'll see by mid 2014 - the infamous year of "tekan rakyat".

question is do u want to buy or sell! smile.gif
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QUOTE(klbull @ Dec 21 2013, 06:44 PM)
The thing about a bubble is that you don't even know you are floating in one, so soothing and gentle is the sensation that you don't want it to end, ever. But it will, someday, and that someday is not that far away given economic events in Malaysia that will adversely impact future consumer spending. For highly geared property speculators, good luck for a not too hard landing in 2015/6.
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Couldnt agree more....specifically for the "not too hard landing". whistling.gif
One more issue you guys haven't mentioned is that banking guidelines are being tightened by Bank Negara so that only "Qualified" buyers qualify for the loans. This is the main issue that will adversely affect the property market. I have spoken to a few bank managers and from what they are telling me, it is definately not positive. They mentioned that you can submit whatever valuation from any parties but the amount of loan they are willing to give will always be depending on the buyer's credentials and qualifications.

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 21 2013, 07:07 PM
icemanfx
post Dec 21 2013, 07:23 PM

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QUOTE(yang1976 @ Dec 21 2013, 07:01 PM)
When one has nothing, they can say anything, since they have nothing to loose. Those strong earners should be able to surf thru the storms and deal with the challenges. If you been faking your earning to get loan, you will suffer soon or later if bubble bursts. Good luck!
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Most if not all flippers streched their borrowing to maximize profits.
Showtime747
post Dec 21 2013, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 21 2013, 07:23 PM)
Most if not all flippers streched their borrowing to maximize profits.
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Not easy in the past 1 - 1.5 years
BTimes
post Dec 21 2013, 08:17 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 21 2013, 02:11 PM)
U.S. Residential-Property Sales Up 10% in November -- RealtyTrac
By Dow Jones Business News, December 20, 2013, 12:15:00 AM ED
By Anna Prior

U.S. residential-property sales climbed 10% in November from a year earlier, as cash purchases and purchases by institutional investors continued to drive the housing market recovery, according to market researcher RealtyTrac.

U.S. residential sales sold at an estimated annualized pace of 5.15 million last month, up less than 1% from the prior month, RealtyTrac reported.

The national median sales price in November totaled $169,000, up 7% from a year earlier and up 1% from the previous month. The median price of a distressed residential property--in foreclosure or bank-owned--last month was $110,500, which was 39% below the median price of $181,500 for a non-distressed residential property.

RealtyTrac Vice President Daren Blomquist noted that the housing market recovery continued to be driven by investors and other cash purchasers in November, adding that lenders are taking advantage of the environment to unload more of their bank-owned inventory and in-foreclosure inventory at the foreclosure auction.

All-cash purchases made up 42% of all residential sales last month, compared with 38.8% in October and also up from a year ago to the highest level since RealtyTrac began tracking all-cash purchases in January 2011.

Institutional investors, or investors purchasing 10 or more properties in the last year, represented 7.7% of all sales in November, compared with 6.3% a year ago and 7.1% in October.

Short sales accounted for 5.6% of all U.S. residential sales in November, down from 6.5% a year earlier and up from 5.4% in October. Sales of bank-owned homes made up 10% of all sales last month, compared with 9.4% a year earlier and 9.1% in October.

Write to Anna Prior at anna.prior@wsj.com

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-residenti...-20131220-00003
BTimes
post Dec 21 2013, 08:20 PM

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The reason for the US' QE tapering is due to robust recovery. US will drive economic recovery in Malaysia and rest of the region slightly. But the central banks are still printing money, including US itself despite the tapering. Couple with higher cost of construction, property prices will remain firm or continue to rise, unless the government steps in to reduce the loan to value for 2nd or more properties.
yang1976
post Dec 21 2013, 09:20 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 21 2013, 07:23 PM)
Most if not all flippers streched their borrowing to maximize profits.
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For true buyers, with strong earning same as they reported in loan application are most likely to be ok . If interest goes up and not exceeding their monthly LO installment amount, they are still safe if they had chosen max tenure. Monthly installment is still same but serving more on interest than principal, this will increase your loan tenure automatically is no big deal, as price of prop will recover and up somemore as proven in history. After VP, if tenanted then good, if no, can release back for sales at certain acceptable premium is not bad at all. at any given time or more than 5 yrs. Future homes are smaller and more affordable in their own expenssive way to satisfy general mass market in sacrify of size. Those reported much much more (fake strech) than actual earning are gonna face their own downfalls. The key is you must have steady income and dont loose your job/biz.
SUSjolokia
post Dec 21 2013, 09:54 PM

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http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/busine...vember/4115407/

Wink2
icemanfx
post Dec 21 2013, 10:20 PM

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QUOTE(yang1976 @ Dec 21 2013, 09:20 PM)
For true buyers, with strong earning same as they reported in loan application are most likely to be ok . If interest goes up and not exceeding their monthly LO installment amount, they are still safe if they had chosen max tenure. Monthly installment is still same but serving more on interest than principal, this will increase your loan tenure automatically is no big deal, as price of prop will recover and up somemore as proven in history.  After VP, if tenanted then good, if no, can release back for sales at certain acceptable premium is not bad at all.  at any given time or more than 5 yrs. Future homes are smaller and more affordable in their own expenssive way to satisfy general mass market in sacrify of size. Those reported much much more (fake strech) than actual earning are gonna face their own downfalls. The key is you must have steady income and dont loose your job/biz.
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What you described is the idea situation but in reality, things are hardly idea. If the world is only half as idea, economic recession or crisis wouldn't had happen.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 21 2013, 10:25 PM
BTimes
post Dec 21 2013, 10:37 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 21 2013, 09:54 PM)
The conflict in our sources comes from new and existing home sales focus.

Mine sources should be new+existing, while yours is existing. Existing stock is tightening, which should be interpreted as good news as the demand removes the supply from the market.

Quoting your source again below:

Existing home sales fell for the third straight month and posted their first annual decline in more than two years.
Julie Schmit, USA TODAY 6:57 p.m. EST December 19, 2013

Existing home sales lost steam in November as buyers faced higher interest rates and a tight supply of homes for sale, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

Sales dropped for the third straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.9 million, down 4.3% from October and down 1.2% from a year earlier — marking the first year-over-year drop in 29 months.

Home sales are being hurt by higher mortgage interest rates, limited inventory and tight credit, says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/busine...vember/4115407/

Providing another source that housing market in US has been heating up:

LATEST US DATA
Housing starts jump to near 6-year high in Nov
Stronger market could allow Fed to start cutting back on bond purchases
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 19, 2013

[WASHINGTON] US housing starts surged to their highest level in nearly six years in November - a sign of strength in the housing market that could give the Federal Reserve ammunition to start cutting back its bond purchases.

The Commerce Department said yesterday that housing starts jumped 22.7 per cent, the biggest increase since January 1990, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09 million units.

That was the highest level since February 2008 and only the second time since the collapse of the housing market in 2006 that starts rose above a one million-unit pace.

The department also said groundbreaking increased 1.8 per cent in October and slipped 1.1 per cent in September. The release of housing starts data for September and October was delayed because of a 16-day shutdown of the federal government in October.

The report was released as Fed officials met for a second day. The housing market had slowed in recent months - a development policymakers acknowledged at the October meeting.

Some economists expected the Fed to announce a reduction in its US$85 billion monthly bond-buying programme later yesterday, although more believed that it would wait until January or March.

A run-up in mortgage rates, in anticipation of the US central bank tapering its monthly bond purchases, took some edge off the sector's recovery earlier in the year, but not enough to halt the process as a steady increase in household formation from multi-decade lows props up demand.

Last month, groundbreaking for single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, soared 20.8 per cent to a 727,000-unit pace, the highest level since March 2008.

Starts for volatile multi-family homes jumped 26.8 per cent to a 364,000-unit rate.

Multi-family home starts have risen strongly through the course of the housing recovery, buoyed by demand for rental apartments as still-high unemployment and stringent lending practices by banks price potential homeowners out of the market.

While permits to build homes fell 3.1 per cent in November to a 1.01 million-unit pace, they were above economists' expectations for a 990,000-unit pace. - Reuters

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/to...gh-nov-20131219

This post has been edited by BTimes: Dec 21 2013, 10:38 PM
BTimes
post Dec 21 2013, 10:41 PM

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Very confusing. But I think US economy is recovering. The Malaysia government knows its positive impact and announces the GST. GST is usually announced in a robust economy, like when Singapore announced it.
yang1976
post Dec 21 2013, 10:51 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 21 2013, 10:20 PM)
What you described is the idea situation but in reality, things are hardly idea. If the world is only half as idea, economic recession or crisis wouldn't had happen.
*
No perfect plan on life, it is a journey waiting to be discovered. Ideal situation comes from strategic planning, not perfect but practical enough to minimise risks if possible. If all things easy achieved, no gap between poverty and riches. Always measure self capability, walk the fine line is to take calculated risks for breakthrough yet if overboard is trouble. Many external factors not mentioned here. Each individual is different, some have heavyweight background some just starting up. We are not expert, each step taken must be carefully considered. A wrong step will take a person 3 to possibly 10 yrs financially behind.

This post has been edited by yang1976: Dec 21 2013, 11:00 PM
icemanfx
post Dec 21 2013, 11:34 PM

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QUOTE(yang1976 @ Dec 21 2013, 10:51 PM)
No perfect plan on life, it is a journey waiting to be discovered. Ideal situation comes from strategic planning, not perfect but practical enough to minimise risks if possible. If all things easy achieved, no gap between poverty and riches. Always measure self capability, walk the fine line is to take calculated risks  for breakthrough yet if overboard is trouble. Many external factors not mentioned here. Each individual is different, some have heavyweight background some just  starting up. We are not expert, each step taken must be carefully considered. A wrong step will take a person 3 to possibly 10 yrs financially behind.
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There are less than 10% of adults are worth over $1m for reasons.
icemanfx
post Dec 21 2013, 11:40 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 21 2013, 10:41 PM)
Very confusing.  But I think US economy is recovering.  The Malaysia government knows its positive impact and announces the GST.  GST is usually announced in a robust economy, like when Singapore announced it.
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When Singapore introduced GST at 3%, the economy slowed.

When U.S went into recession in 2008, Malaysia was spared from economic slow down because U.S is no longer largest trading partner. Without FTA with the U.S, U.S recovery unlikely will have major positive impact locally.

U.S economy recovery mean interest rate will rise, fair guess is by 3% at least. A large portion of malaysian gomen bond buyers will sell and invest in more profitable return elsewhere and likely will cause tightening in liquidity, RM depreciation and rise in interest rate.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 22 2013, 12:29 AM
TiramisuCoffee
post Dec 21 2013, 11:56 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 21 2013, 11:34 PM)
There are less than 10% of adults are worth over $1m for reasons.
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In 2012, Malaysia has only 30 billionaires and 39,000 millionaires.The rising cost of living had lessened the feeling of being rich.

"If you still have a million in hand after you convert the value of your other properties, investments and have paid of all your debts, then you are a millionaire," she added - See more at: http://news.asiaone.com/News/AsiaOne+News/...h.lNwfstIZ.dpuf

This post has been edited by TiramisuCoffee: Dec 21 2013, 11:57 PM
yang1976
post Dec 22 2013, 12:17 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 21 2013, 11:34 PM)
There are less than 10% of adults are worth over $1m for reasons.
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Many people have over a rm1 mil cash in bank, even more so greater in number for rm1 mil in debt or more. Better to leverage on bank money to make money works for you rather than keeping in bank.

This post has been edited by yang1976: Dec 22 2013, 12:20 AM
icemanfx
post Dec 22 2013, 12:26 AM

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QUOTE(yang1976 @ Dec 22 2013, 12:17 AM)
Many people have over a rm1 mil cash in bank, even  more so greater in number for rm1 mil in debt or more. Better to leverage on bank money to make money works for you rather than keeping in bank.
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Net worth isn't restricted to cash in bank.
yang1976
post Dec 22 2013, 12:53 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 22 2013, 12:26 AM)
Net worth isn't restricted to cash in bank.
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No discussion can cover all aspects, neither do one simple being can declare his own networth while evaluation is done by 3rd party like bank has its own networth calculation criteria. If you know, why dont u share what is networth to you.

This post has been edited by yang1976: Dec 22 2013, 12:56 AM

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