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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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TOMEI-R
post Dec 20 2013, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(kurtkob78 @ Nov 15 2013, 11:56 AM)
people don't like to see the word bubble. maybe can change the title a bit ...
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Many greedy "investors" cant accept the word "bubble" as they are worried it may affect their profits later on when the "bubble" burst and properties prices become stagnant or even drop. What I can say is the market isn't looking very promising right now and with the current policies adopted by the present government, I would say that it is not looking good at all on the property sector as well.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 21 2013, 01:34 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Dec 20 2013, 08:33 PM)
IMO,
Bubble already burst
Bubble also happen in certain areas since 2000
Bubble will exist in the future and forever, different area will hv different timing and magnitude of bubble
Btw, how to defind greedy "investor" hmm.gif
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Imho.. "Greedy Investors" would be defined as " Someone who tries to buy/possess as many properties within or not within their capacity/income not for own use but to make profits out of "flipping" those properties to make high profits for themselves "

We could see a lot of these people when times were better and when the banks had no qualms giving high loans out to buyers. I was suprise young people in their 20 to 30s owning 3 -4 units of condos to themselves and because they have to service these loans, they are harping that their units could be rented out so to cover their loan installments. If the said person were to lose his source of income, he/she would definately be unable to pay for this exisiting housing loans. rclxub.gif During those times, as long as you have a proper source of income, you could easily get 95% - 100% loan for those properties.

To be fair, everybody wants to make extra profits, but I would suggest that people buy within their means and not at the limit of their income. What if the market crashes, or you were to lose your job or something happen to you and being so you could not service your loans anymore?

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 21 2013, 01:38 PM
TOMEI-R
post Dec 21 2013, 02:28 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 21 2013, 02:15 PM)
Hardly any gen Y experienced or know about recession, it is waste of time to tell them.
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rclxms.gif Could'nt agree more. But the same thing when we look back when we were young. Somehow, people these days always forget the idea of "slow and steady wins the race" rather they want quick and easy way out of everything.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 21 2013, 07:06 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 21 2013, 06:24 PM)
now, that is true...

no panic yet. but, can't sell easy.

we'll see by mid 2014 - the infamous year of "tekan rakyat".

question is do u want to buy or sell! smile.gif
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QUOTE(klbull @ Dec 21 2013, 06:44 PM)
The thing about a bubble is that you don't even know you are floating in one, so soothing and gentle is the sensation that you don't want it to end, ever. But it will, someday, and that someday is not that far away given economic events in Malaysia that will adversely impact future consumer spending. For highly geared property speculators, good luck for a not too hard landing in 2015/6.
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Couldnt agree more....specifically for the "not too hard landing". whistling.gif
One more issue you guys haven't mentioned is that banking guidelines are being tightened by Bank Negara so that only "Qualified" buyers qualify for the loans. This is the main issue that will adversely affect the property market. I have spoken to a few bank managers and from what they are telling me, it is definately not positive. They mentioned that you can submit whatever valuation from any parties but the amount of loan they are willing to give will always be depending on the buyer's credentials and qualifications.

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 21 2013, 07:07 PM
TOMEI-R
post Dec 22 2013, 10:45 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 22 2013, 10:33 PM)
There r other ways for govt to claw back e lost tax. Other subsidy cuts will be deeper that's all
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There are thousands of ways for the government to claw back e lost tax. Aren't they doing it rite now? To them its like its like "Like it or not, I'm here to stay for another 5 years". So say and protest all you want... All they care is how to 'fatten" their own wallets from now. whistling.gif

Jokes aside, with the current market and economy condition. I doubt that there will be any booms anymore on the property market. I feel that property prices will just become stagnant as transactions are lesser by day. Properties in established areas won't be affected much as it is well sought after and owners have most probably got it off at a very low price before. Those harping on getting some "dead chicken" are like those who are preying on property owners who couldn't service their loans anymore and have to dispose off their properties to minimize their losses. But imho for that to happen, it would require the economy to crash like 1996-1997 and that would be very damaging to our countries' economy as well as our Ringgit which in turn affects all of us as we are holding on the Ringgit. Also remember that even though there may be desperate owners willing to let go of their properties then, it would be hard to get a loan then as Banks would have tighten their hire purchase requirements and not to mention the crazily high interests like back then in 1997. nod.gif

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 22 2013, 10:54 PM
TOMEI-R
post Dec 30 2013, 12:38 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Dec 30 2013, 12:24 PM)
They choose to die?

Well majority of young couples in Malaysia also living like them - hand to mouth.

No savings.

Yes they may be living beyond their means - just means this group of population (despite being so-called "cash rich Chinese" according to tat) will be fvcked during any economic slowdown.

So........you think they got holding power to pay their RM4k loan for 6 months if the husband lost his job?

LMAO!  laugh.gif
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The said "Cash rich Chinese" are the older generation which means chinese from the 40s,50s, 60s and not the current generation. The current Chinese generation are more like any race now, spending and living beyond their means. Those that can sustain are because their parents or grandparents (the said cash rich Chinese) are supporting them.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 30 2013, 01:07 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Dec 30 2013, 12:49 PM)
I don't quite agree.

The "Cash Rich Chinese" concept is mostly BS from Kutusan and other UMNO trash tabloids.


There are rich Chinamen in their 40s, 50s and 60s, yes. But not as many as you think, and many of them are also fully vested in the prop market.

They aren't going to save the Malaysian prop industry if there's a black swan event. No way in hell.
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Nope, they are not going to save the Malaysian prop industry. Rather they would be buying more property for themselves when there is such an event. nod.gif
You know the rich keep getting richer idealogy?

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 30 2013, 01:10 PM
TOMEI-R
post Dec 30 2013, 02:00 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 30 2013, 01:46 PM)
Like it or not, all of us here are a subset of the whole population.  If you believe in statistics, our views here actually do reflect what is the major trend in the market.  What I observed so far:

The usual optimistic investors here are not buying in the near future, and waiting for things to get clearer or dead chickens of at least 15 to 20% discount. 

The pessimistic investors here are expecting prices to come down, or even a crash.  So, they are not buying. 

What I can conclude now is that prop prices now are stagnant, pending for next trend. As nobody is taking any action.    In fact, future is being shaped now by future buyers and sellers.  If people are not buying or supporting at this point, won't the collapse of overcommitted flippers trigger a reverse trend ?  For my observation of trading, trading trends are like running train.  When it goes up, nothing can stop it rises.  Only when it runs out of momentum, it stops.  When it comes down, it will run over anyone, anything in its way.

It is simpler to see this in stock market.  Buyers and sellers set their prices.  Only when one crosses over, deal is made.  Flippers are like highly geared speculators.  When they are forced sold, it wipes out all queued buys.  In this case, queued buys (optimistic investors waiting for dead chicken) won't be there unless there is at least 15-20% discount.  All human tries to protect their resources.  When prices do reverse, the instinct is to wait for things to settle down, even now.  Hence, I doubt that when dead chicken is shown, whether there is anyone picking it up.

Does anybody know that losing a lot of money is actually as painful as cutting yourself bleeding ?

http://www.webmd.com/balance/news/20070502...ally-be-painful
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I do get your point there but I would rather say, that if there is dead chicken, will there be anyone capable of picking it up. With the current economic slowdown, a lot of people would be either not be having enough cash or those who have would rather be saving them from rainy days. Business people who experience slowdowns in their business would rather be thinking of conserving or maintaining their cash flow so as to equip their business for any uncertainties coming. The crash in 1996 did result in a lot of "underpriced" properties as people were to heavily invested in stock markets and heavily in debt and therefore had to sell of their properties to cover on their losses. But would the same situation arise now as I dont see a similar scenario like that in 1996 happening again.?
TOMEI-R
post Dec 30 2013, 02:19 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 30 2013, 02:10 PM)
In actual fact, if the GDP in a country is growing, someone (bosses and those in senior management) is still making more money.  Just don't be a 9-5 worker stuck at the lower rungs of the corporate ladder.  If prices are raised, the extra money enters whose pockets?
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Are you sure you are being provided with the right facts? Are these figures provided by some trustworthy parties? Thats the question.
TOMEI-R
post Dec 30 2013, 05:26 PM

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QUOTE(clamp_wl @ Dec 30 2013, 02:37 PM)
tbh, you guys really uses the touch id often?
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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Dec 30 2013, 04:59 PM)
haizz guys 2more days to 2014... lets embrace it.. embrace the price hike and bad economy.. right

guys buy properties within your ambit of your ability and affordability.. no matter wat the agent say, auntie say, uncle say, other ppl say, feel it your self.. is the property price sustainable irregardless of which bracket you are earning..

if bought property way beyond your means.. the happy party will be the irresponsible flippers they be laughing you thank you for making me another millionaire at your expense. buy it withing your means.. for now 2014 everyone more busy and curious of what the economy say... how to cope with increase..

for flippers happy hunting and holding... if you can. for those not within this category,, good luck to may the REPOMAN have mercy on you..
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Haha.. I like your statement "good luck to may the REPOMAN have mercy on you.." on flippers. But for houses, Banks would not send the Repoman, rather they will Auction off your property and sue your ass for the difference owned to them, and the the courts will seal your existing properties (if you have any)and by the time you know it, you would have become a Bankrupt. icon_idea.gif The person who has a big smile on his/her faces then would be the bank panel of lawyers as they will will laughing their way to their bank with a big pay cheque for making you a bankrupt. whistling.gif

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 30 2013, 05:29 PM
TOMEI-R
post Dec 30 2013, 06:31 PM

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QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Dec 30 2013, 06:15 PM)
Sorry, can't follow. What is REPOMEN?  blink.gif
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"Repomen" are basically repossesors. tongue.gif
TOMEI-R
post Jan 3 2014, 12:07 PM

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Guys guys.. You all have your points there. But please bear in mind. If you have any friends who is doing mortgage or housing loans, or friends in real estate, just ask them how many loans are approvef nowadays compared to loans rejected and how many transactions there is and you would understand the situation better. whistling.gif
I'm not being negative or what, but looking at the figures you will roughly know how well the property market is doing now and I dont believe we have a lot of cash buyers willing to make purchases easily nowadays.

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Jan 3 2014, 12:10 PM
TOMEI-R
post Jan 3 2014, 02:09 PM

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QUOTE(jiro1986 @ Jan 3 2014, 12:31 PM)
the buying mode is useless... u have to see the transaction rate.

i also in buying mode but my loan not approved.

so is it mean the market is good?
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If there is Supply and No demand (because loan rejected) = ????? (No Transaction = Market Stagnantation)


QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 3 2014, 12:32 PM)
Those who is rich and still believe BBB mode please go and ahead and buy more.. stop convincing the youngster to buy your ovetpriced property.. u are just killing them.. you yourself wont buy the landed at 780k.. what makes you tink those ppl below you can afford.. u just like developers just have intentuon to sell off your property invested.. even big boys aka developers apply ABS BRAKE..
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thumbup.gif Yup...Couldnt agree more. You are convincing people that the market is still good so that you could sell your overpriced property to feed your lust for profits at the expense of your buyers. Good question, would you buy your similar property at the price you are selling? That is a damn good question.

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 3 2014, 01:41 PM)
If one over stretched to purchase property now worrying about future price has a high risks to default if positive outcome didn't turn up, and could loss what you have and more.

Nothing goes up in a straight line, if any commodity goes up because of speculation or bought on future price will eventually fall back e.g. gold, oil, kv property.
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Just had lunch with a CIMB Bank Loans Head as guess what he told me? He said you could submit whatever Valuation on your property but HQ has already instructed them to approve loans based on how much you are worth (meaning how much you can afford to pay). Lets say you submit your property valuation at Rm700k but he thinks you are only eligible for Rm500k so he will only offer you Rm500k, take it or leave it. This is because the Banks also feel that the price of properties has been overvalued because of flippers and greedy property owners. Up to you on whether you want to believe it or not... but looking at the Loans Approval Rate, there is something to ponder upon.

QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 3 2014, 02:04 PM)
How to collapse our market when everybody is desperately desiring to have their own house here? Different people will have different defination for affordability...the property sector is not going to sink as long as the demand is still there...
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We never said that the market will collapse or sink. There will always be demand. People are never satisfied with what they have. Be it me or you. But the main issue is, is the BUYING POWER still there? Can the people still afford to buy and service their loans or rather can the people still get ridiculously high loans for their property with their meagre income?

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Jan 3 2014, 02:14 PM
TOMEI-R
post Jan 3 2014, 02:21 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jan 3 2014, 02:15 PM)
Wasnt this always the case? As far as i know, there are about 7 criteria that is used to evaluate a potential applicant which directly influences the loan approval.
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QUOTE(satrianeo-x @ Jan 3 2014, 02:18 PM)
Erm. Aren't bank loan suppose to be that way? U know, loaning you money which you could sustain/repay? You mean all along bank simply loan loan loan, as in the case of DIBS? Gulp!
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Just say that previously they were a bit lenient. whistling.gif
TOMEI-R
post Jan 7 2014, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(Martinis @ Jan 7 2014, 05:11 PM)
"Bukit kiara properties Tong warns measures to cure speculation will slow down the property market which is not good when increasing the supply of property should be encouraged. The likely scenario is a sharp spike in price once the market rebounds."
As i have said repeatedly, there is a SHORTAGE.
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Shortage? Go do abit of homework around Kiara and see how many units are up for sale and rent now. nod.gif
TOMEI-R
post Jan 7 2014, 06:26 PM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Jan 7 2014, 05:43 PM)
There is a shortage - of affordable housing. There is an oversupply of high-priced condos. Building more high end condos will not solve the shortage.
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+1 On that.

What we need is affordable housing for everyone. Not overpriced property 'hyped' by some greedy property owner's and real estate agents to lure ordinary folk into paying through their noses for it.

We now have condos at the edge of town like in Selayang (Near Templers Park) going for Rm500 to Rm600k. rclxub.gif

I think people should start moving out of town to be able to afford houses in the future.

Couple with Barang Naik (BN) now to stay, I would reckon it wouldnt look good.

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Jan 7 2014, 06:30 PM
TOMEI-R
post Jan 8 2014, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 8 2014, 09:55 AM)
U may try to do the study using the napic report. Should be tough to tell.
I hv been wondering about this for a long time as well.

Side topic, sinchew has a front page in business section on prop today. The house index has come down 5% in 3rd quarter 2013.
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Nooo.... there are some people who still believe that there is "shortage" in the property market that will continue to drive up demand and prices. Good luck to them. rclxms.gif
TOMEI-R
post Jan 8 2014, 12:10 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 8 2014, 11:36 AM)
If it is really like stock market, the chances of speculate and win might be slim.
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But speculators and buyers need to have a lot of cash in hand for this to happen. But the problem is, its seems like the other way round. shakehead.gif
TOMEI-R
post Jan 13 2014, 11:20 PM

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The Star Business Section just warned of tough times ahead for the year 2014. Seems a number of foreign investors are pulling back their investment for obvious reasons. Our Government and leaders don't have a clue where they are bringing our country towards to and I don't think they intend to. Business people keep on complaining of slow markets. I don't see a good year ahead. Comments... on whether you still wanna buy or look see first..?

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Jan 13 2014, 11:22 PM

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