At most the property market slows down and properties' floor area becomes smaller and smaller like in Singapore.

Price growth is still quite strong in first tier cities in China.

China Home Prices Rose in November as Shenzhen Led Gains
By Bloomberg News Dec 18, 2013 1:24 PM GMT+0800

New home prices in the four Chinese cities defined as first-tier by the government rose, with Shenzhen posting the biggest gain in almost three years, as property measures by local governments failed to deter buyers.

Shenzhen and Guangzhou posted increases of 21 percent from a year earlier, while prices climbed 18 percent in Shanghai and 16 percent in Beijing, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed today. Prices rose from a year earlier in 69 of 70 cities tracked by the government last month, it showed.

China has held off from introducing more nationwide policies to rein in the property market, opting for measures implemented by local authorities instead that have included higher down-payment requirements for second-home purchases in three of the first-tier cities. A statement issued after this month’s annual Central Economic Work conference also didn’t mention real estate curbs as a policy initiative for next year.

“Home prices in major cities have already become unaffordable; the impact of the local-level property measures is not very strong, we’ve seen similar policies before,” Yao Wei, China economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong, said by phone today. “The central government is treating cities differently, but they will still take nationwide actions if home prices are rising too quickly.”

The pace of increases from last year were the same in November from October in all four cities except for Shenzhen, according to the data.

First-tier Cities

The capital Beijing, the financial center of Shanghai, and the southern business hubs of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, are considered first tier by the bureau of statistics. The four “are characterized by high levels of international business connectivity, deep corporate bases and well-developed international grade stock, and they are the country’s most liquid and transparent markets,” according to broker Jones Lang LaSalle Inc.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Property Index fell 0.2 percent as of 1:18 p.m. local time, while the benchmark was little changed.

Existing home prices rose 20 percent in Beijing last month from a year earlier, while they increased 14 percent in Shanghai, advanced 15 percent in Shenzhen and added 12 percent in Guangzhou, according to the data.

China’s leadership has changed its policy mindset from curbing demand to a more long-term focus on regulating the property market, as the government plans to separate the affordable housing and the private property market, Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Oscar Choi wrote in a report last week.

Policy Objectives

“The data runs contrary to policy objectives and is likely to trigger a fresh round of real estate market curbs,” Hong Kong-based Dariusz Kowalczyk, an economist and strategist at Credit Agricole CIB, wrote in an e-mailed reply. “We expect higher down-payment ratios in the every near term and a hike in mortgage lending rates in coming months.”

Private data also have shown rising housing values. Home prices jumped 9.5 percent from a year earlier last month, the biggest gain since December last year, according to SouFun Holdings Ltd., the nation’s biggest real estate website owner.

The value of November home sales climbed to the highest in almost two years, to 720.4 billion yuan ($119 billion), the statistics bureau said last week.

China’s home-price growth in the third quarter was the fastest after Dubai, rising 22 percent from a year earlier, broker Knight Frank LLP said in a report this month that tracked 55 markets.

Major cities will see more price increases next year on a supply shortage, while less affluent second-tier cities will have “relatively stable” prices, said Liu Ning, board secretary of China Merchants Property Development Ltd., the country’s third-biggest developer by market value, in an interview on Dec. 13.

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Bonnie Cao in Shanghai at bcao4@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-18/c...ecord-gain.html

U.S. Residential-Property Sales Up 10% in November -- RealtyTrac
By Dow Jones Business News, December 20, 2013, 12:15:00 AM ED
By Anna Prior

U.S. residential-property sales climbed 10% in November from a year earlier, as cash purchases and purchases by institutional investors continued to drive the housing market recovery, according to market researcher RealtyTrac.

U.S. residential sales sold at an estimated annualized pace of 5.15 million last month, up less than 1% from the prior month, RealtyTrac reported.

The national median sales price in November totaled $169,000, up 7% from a year earlier and up 1% from the previous month. The median price of a distressed residential property--in foreclosure or bank-owned--last month was $110,500, which was 39% below the median price of $181,500 for a non-distressed residential property.

RealtyTrac Vice President Daren Blomquist noted that the housing market recovery continued to be driven by investors and other cash purchasers in November, adding that lenders are taking advantage of the environment to unload more of their bank-owned inventory and in-foreclosure inventory at the foreclosure auction.

All-cash purchases made up 42% of all residential sales last month, compared with 38.8% in October and also up from a year ago to the highest level since RealtyTrac began tracking all-cash purchases in January 2011.

Institutional investors, or investors purchasing 10 or more properties in the last year, represented 7.7% of all sales in November, compared with 6.3% a year ago and 7.1% in October.

Short sales accounted for 5.6% of all U.S. residential sales in November, down from 6.5% a year earlier and up from 5.4% in October. Sales of bank-owned homes made up 10% of all sales last month, compared with 9.4% a year earlier and 9.1% in October.

Write to Anna Prior at anna.prior@wsj.com

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-residenti...-20131220-00003

The reason for the US' QE tapering is due to robust recovery. US will drive economic recovery in Malaysia and rest of the region slightly. But the central banks are still printing money, including US itself despite the tapering. Couple with higher cost of construction, property prices will remain firm or continue to rise, unless the government steps in to reduce the loan to value for 2nd or more properties.

The conflict in our sources comes from new and existing home sales focus.

Mine sources should be new+existing, while yours is existing. Existing stock is tightening, which should be interpreted as good news as the demand removes the supply from the market.

Quoting your source again below:

Existing home sales fell for the third straight month and posted their first annual decline in more than two years.
Julie Schmit, USA TODAY 6:57 p.m. EST December 19, 2013

Existing home sales lost steam in November as buyers faced higher interest rates and a tight supply of homes for sale, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

Sales dropped for the third straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.9 million, down 4.3% from October and down 1.2% from a year earlier — marking the first year-over-year drop in 29 months.

Home sales are being hurt by higher mortgage interest rates, limited inventory and tight credit, says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/busine...vember/4115407/

Providing another source that housing market in US has been heating up:

LATEST US DATA
Housing starts jump to near 6-year high in Nov
Stronger market could allow Fed to start cutting back on bond purchases
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 19, 2013

[WASHINGTON] US housing starts surged to their highest level in nearly six years in November - a sign of strength in the housing market that could give the Federal Reserve ammunition to start cutting back its bond purchases.

The Commerce Department said yesterday that housing starts jumped 22.7 per cent, the biggest increase since January 1990, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09 million units.

That was the highest level since February 2008 and only the second time since the collapse of the housing market in 2006 that starts rose above a one million-unit pace.

The department also said groundbreaking increased 1.8 per cent in October and slipped 1.1 per cent in September. The release of housing starts data for September and October was delayed because of a 16-day shutdown of the federal government in October.

The report was released as Fed officials met for a second day. The housing market had slowed in recent months - a development policymakers acknowledged at the October meeting.

Some economists expected the Fed to announce a reduction in its US$85 billion monthly bond-buying programme later yesterday, although more believed that it would wait until January or March.

A run-up in mortgage rates, in anticipation of the US central bank tapering its monthly bond purchases, took some edge off the sector's recovery earlier in the year, but not enough to halt the process as a steady increase in household formation from multi-decade lows props up demand.

Last month, groundbreaking for single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, soared 20.8 per cent to a 727,000-unit pace, the highest level since March 2008.

Starts for volatile multi-family homes jumped 26.8 per cent to a 364,000-unit rate.

Multi-family home starts have risen strongly through the course of the housing recovery, buoyed by demand for rental apartments as still-high unemployment and stringent lending practices by banks price potential homeowners out of the market.

While permits to build homes fell 3.1 per cent in November to a 1.01 million-unit pace, they were above economists' expectations for a 990,000-unit pace. - Reuters

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/to...gh-nov-20131219

This post has been edited by BTimes: Dec 21 2013, 10:38 PM

Very confusing. But I think US economy is recovering. The Malaysia government knows its positive impact and announces the GST. GST is usually announced in a robust economy, like when Singapore announced it.

There r other ways for govt to claw back e lost tax. Other subsidy cuts will be deeper that's all

The weakness in such shop-offices is the design that require customers to climb up and down the staircase. The developer should design for a few common lifts at the spacious lobby and common corridors at each floor leading to individual units. This ease access for customers and tenancy rate in the building. The other very odd design is lack of rubbish chute for high-rise.

Q4 2013 has been a very slow period for property market after the Budget 2014 announcement, but I see signs of market stirring in last few weeks. By end of Q1 2014, the buying activity should be quite hot again if there are no new cooling measures announced. Q2 2014 onward the market should even be hotter as buyers enter the market to avoid the 6% GST in 2015.

At a few sales office I visited, the sales managers told me that their material prices are expected to go up in 2014, and they are planning to increase the price slightly while cutting down the size slightly too in their 2014 launches.

It is logical to expect that 2H 2014 launches will be more expensive than 1H 2014 launch, as more material/fuel/labour/tax costs kick in. By Q4 2014, I expect most of the GST cost would have factored into the price.

I didn't see a lot of launches in Q4 2013 and this could have contributed to the lower market activity. If I were buying for own stay, this few months in early next year is the best period to look around for the best deal.

I have already bought this year.

What I have mentioned are what the developers' sales team told me. You can chose not to believe. Having said that, volumes might come down and the developers could be forced to reduce their price and margin.

Everyone is playing the waiting game. The truth will be out in a few months' time. My personal belief is 80% chance up and 20% chance down for gated and guarded landed properties and small condos near MRT. Other locations and market segment (e.g. office) might experience a glut and stagnation or slight price correction. So I'm not fully in the UUU camp.

Yes, I agree we have to be very careful with condos. Landed is much safer, as developers cannot create land, but they can create space from the air via condos.

"Buy land, they're not making it anymore." - Mark Twain

You could be right that I'm too optimistic. Holding power is indeed the key. You might wish to consider getting a cheaper/smaller landed e.g. 20x70 terrace in a good neighbourhood in the suburb. It is just a matter of time the city expands and growth enters the suburbs. Chinese tend to love properties more, so I think Chinese community areas have good potential for price appreciation.

As mentioned earlier, I might have been a little optimistic, but I supposed that is natural given that I'm vested.

Your information is interesting. Any data to share? I believe overall is still increasing but the proportion is dropping as other races are growing much faster.

http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/images...s_2010-2040.pdf

I very much agree with you. Malaysia's properties are very cheap comparatively. The Chinese developers are paying record prices this year for Malaysia land.

I'm not in KL, so I'm lurking around here to study KL from the property masters more. After I have saved up sufficiently, I might get one in KL. A correction in KL in the next few years will in fact be favorable to me. Maybe I should shout DDD!

Thanks for the info. Iskandar is having the reverse issue, the PRs are moving back to or buying in Johor as inflation soars in Singapore.

I thought US, China and Japan economies are doing well, and next year will even be better. Shops business are strongly tied to the hike in rental.

I'm not really worried as I can hold them empty without tenants (currently holding an empty one for recreational use). To begin with, Malaysia properties are not really expensive relative to other regional countries.