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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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yang1976
post Dec 21 2013, 07:01 PM

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When one has nothing, they can say anything, since they have nothing to loose. Those strong earners should be able to surf thru the storms and deal with the challenges. If you been faking your earning to get loan, you will suffer soon or later if bubble bursts. Good luck!
yang1976
post Dec 21 2013, 09:20 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 21 2013, 07:23 PM)
Most if not all flippers streched their borrowing to maximize profits.
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For true buyers, with strong earning same as they reported in loan application are most likely to be ok . If interest goes up and not exceeding their monthly LO installment amount, they are still safe if they had chosen max tenure. Monthly installment is still same but serving more on interest than principal, this will increase your loan tenure automatically is no big deal, as price of prop will recover and up somemore as proven in history. After VP, if tenanted then good, if no, can release back for sales at certain acceptable premium is not bad at all. at any given time or more than 5 yrs. Future homes are smaller and more affordable in their own expenssive way to satisfy general mass market in sacrify of size. Those reported much much more (fake strech) than actual earning are gonna face their own downfalls. The key is you must have steady income and dont loose your job/biz.
yang1976
post Dec 21 2013, 10:51 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 21 2013, 10:20 PM)
What you described is the idea situation but in reality, things are hardly idea. If the world is only half as idea, economic recession or crisis wouldn't had happen.
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No perfect plan on life, it is a journey waiting to be discovered. Ideal situation comes from strategic planning, not perfect but practical enough to minimise risks if possible. If all things easy achieved, no gap between poverty and riches. Always measure self capability, walk the fine line is to take calculated risks for breakthrough yet if overboard is trouble. Many external factors not mentioned here. Each individual is different, some have heavyweight background some just starting up. We are not expert, each step taken must be carefully considered. A wrong step will take a person 3 to possibly 10 yrs financially behind.

This post has been edited by yang1976: Dec 21 2013, 11:00 PM
yang1976
post Dec 22 2013, 12:17 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 21 2013, 11:34 PM)
There are less than 10% of adults are worth over $1m for reasons.
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Many people have over a rm1 mil cash in bank, even more so greater in number for rm1 mil in debt or more. Better to leverage on bank money to make money works for you rather than keeping in bank.

This post has been edited by yang1976: Dec 22 2013, 12:20 AM
yang1976
post Dec 22 2013, 12:53 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 22 2013, 12:26 AM)
Net worth isn't restricted to cash in bank.
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No discussion can cover all aspects, neither do one simple being can declare his own networth while evaluation is done by 3rd party like bank has its own networth calculation criteria. If you know, why dont u share what is networth to you.

This post has been edited by yang1976: Dec 22 2013, 12:56 AM
yang1976
post Dec 22 2013, 11:53 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 22 2013, 11:30 AM)
BNM rate is closely correlated to the Fed and historical interest rate is over 3% higher than current rate.

It could take a year or 2 for BNM to increase rate by 3%, doubt many flippers could sustain 3% interest rate rise for over a year.
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Lol

Most strong holders are ok in the sense of paying more interest to bank is not disaster, at least got asset to hold on to. Can rent from us if cant get a loan to buy your own since interest high right if happens. Either way if flippers force selling, new buyers are u ready? Better qualify yourself to get loan at that point of time, else no good if burst also you cant buy. Talk is cheap if no action when opportunity arises.
yang1976
post Dec 22 2013, 10:41 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 22 2013, 05:41 PM)
BNM rate is not coorelated to Fed fund rate.
From 1998 to 2013, basically BNM rate was always in the range of 3.x% (apart from a year or 2 during 2008 crisis, that we saw OPR at 2%), while Fed fund rate was roller coaster from 1% to 4% then to now 0.25%.
Even many time Fed has reiterated Fed fund rate is going to stay low for extended period, despite QE tapering.

So, it is very unlikely for OPR to increase 3% to 6%, even in many years time.

Since 1997 crisis, Malaysia OPR never more than 3.x%.
Already 16 years at 3.x% level.

There is no reason for BNM to increase OPR to 6%, unless the economy is growing red hot at more than 8~9% rate just like what economy did before 1997 crisis.

If inflation is seriously hit or RM under pressure that forcing BNM to increase OPR to 6%, it just means property cannot be sold at dirt cheap price as well. Temporarily fire-sale due to those unable to service the home loan could surpress the property price for sometimes, but inflation will bring up the cost of property, aka property price in the longer future.
Just like a bowl of mee cannot be sold at RM2-3 nowadays like in old day.
Yes, property market could dampen due to correction, in fact, showing sign of slowing, but BNM is unlikely to hike so significantly to 6%.

It may kill the economy at 6%, which is not the interest of BNM to do so.
BNM want the property market to cool down, but not the economy, this can be seen by moves made by BNM of LTV ratio, tighter lending practice on home loan, but reluctantly to use interest rate as a tool to cool it down.

So the chance of increase 3% is remote for time being condition.
In fact with GST is on the pipeline 2015, that could dampen the economy growth, it is not the interest for BNM to hike rate so significantly.
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+1

Interest up a little bit more is fine for me, less competition when comes to launching.

yang1976
post Dec 22 2013, 10:42 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Dec 22 2013, 12:01 PM)
I do really hope lyn provide a LIKE button. Sad tat I'm not able to press LIKE for ur comment. cry.gif
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I blow water only smile.gif
yang1976
post Dec 23 2013, 08:16 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Dec 23 2013, 07:33 PM)
so past 5 years if price increase 100%...and then suddenly got dead chicken and price reduce 20% discounted price......i think those who purchased earlier still earn more and better than those who pick up dead chickens deal... right?
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I dont mind selling discounted chicken smile.gif normally i rent out lar so chicken still can lay eggs.
yang1976
post Dec 24 2013, 09:12 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 24 2013, 08:45 AM)
Obviously over supply ? Spain property market in the making.  shakehead.gif
No difference ! people like to "hear" their property price go up, though paper/sound of gain.  laugh.gif

Very Good ! Jolly Good  thumbup.gif

Dead Chicken coming  brows.gif
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If you find lelong dead chicken, it is slaughtered chicken, not free ya, it will costs you as well, so make sure you got money to buy dead checken.

If chicken not dead, plenty peacocks are in the making smile.gif
yang1976
post Dec 25 2013, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 25 2013, 11:31 AM)
Realistic assessment. However for people with vested interest, will have their vision only on positive outcome even if unrealistic.
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In given non-financially strong person or lack of capability to acquire will makes it looks unrealistic bcos fear of loosing , once lost they have nothing much for next bet. Those already made it, next steps seem easy with whatever they have gained previously since they can play the game over and over again. Today as long as gaining a spot on good proj even the projected ROI may not be as good as yrs ago yet still doable for seasoned investors who know which proj is best for the money in future.

This post has been edited by yang1976: Dec 25 2013, 12:36 PM
yang1976
post Dec 27 2013, 09:25 AM

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So many dead chicken hunters, can go pick up with hand on the floor if any. LOL. I guess if no bullets(deposit) and riffle (loan credibility), i hope you got cannon (cash). Can talk skyhigh, when dead chicken too many, hunters may think dead by poison, then flee.
yang1976
post Jan 2 2014, 08:53 AM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Jan 2 2014, 01:37 AM)
Demand for property is ALWAYS huge. It's a matter of affordability. You can want (demand) it doesn't mean you can afford it.  icon_idea.gif
So property market; boom or bust depends on situation like DIBS, Loan approval, interest rate..etc.
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+100 on "It's a matter of affordability. You can want (demand) it doesn't mean you can afford it. icon_idea.gif " regardless of what type of wants(demands) for whatever purpose in mind.

This post has been edited by yang1976: Jan 2 2014, 08:53 AM
yang1976
post Jan 2 2014, 09:53 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 2 2014, 09:33 AM)
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014...ial-discipline/

Earn 7-10K per month before talk about demand. .lol

Those who think 500K SPM students will come to KV & buy or rent your property ..lol first ask yourselves r your company willing to pay them 7-10K starting salary or not...lol
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If u are earning less due to inexperienced (junior) then your want(demand) should be less in comparison to senior.

If u r earning less than those of your age, you got problem.

yang1976
post Jan 2 2014, 10:47 PM

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QUOTE(endau02 @ Jan 2 2014, 10:35 PM)
the sad news to the developers n flippers is... we have many blokes with this problem.
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Ya, real life is never fair. Just work harder, else self destructive lol.

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