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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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Wiredx
post Dec 14 2013, 11:34 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 14 2013, 11:24 PM)
The general prices of property in malaysia over a long period (for eg. 10 years) has never came down. It is quite a linear upward graph. With the exception of a few individual projects
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So this indicates it will continue to grow in a similar manner over the next ten years? Do u have a link to this graph?
gspirit01
post Dec 14 2013, 11:35 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 14 2013, 11:24 PM)
The general prices of property in malaysia over a long period (for eg. 10 years) has never came down. It is quite a linear upward graph. With the exception of a few individual projects
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I don't recall that properties has been this hot and high before. being rejected in loan application was hardly heard before.
Wiredx
post Dec 14 2013, 11:37 PM

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QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Dec 14 2013, 11:33 PM)
Dunno. I read so many ppl here say BBB, UUU !  flex.gif  Don't buy got some money where to put huh?  Buy shares ok or not this economic climate? You reckon put $ under bantal better izzit?  whistling.gif
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No i dont think so. Why do u say that? You dont believe in holding the cash and carefully seek out your own opportunities? You need to meet the right people in the real world bro.
TiramisuCoffee
post Dec 15 2013, 12:00 AM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Dec 14 2013, 11:37 PM)
No i dont think so. Why do u say that? You dont believe in holding the cash and carefully seek out your own opportunities? You need to meet the right people in the real world bro.
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Very soon, I promise, I'll seek out the right ppl in d real world. Currently am on vacation. Got some time. Sorry I ask so many stupid questions. Glad I did though. Learned quite a bit since I joined. Nice community! thumbup.gif

Showtime747
post Dec 15 2013, 12:14 AM

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Wiredx and gspirit01,

I got the graph from JPPH publication http://www.jpph.gov.my/V2/index3service.ph...mat=3&no_item=1 But it doesn't have a online copy to link it here sad.gif

Not saying that property price won't come down. In fact, it fluctuate up and down all the time. But if you look at a longer period, like over a 10 year period from 1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2010, there is this upward line that cut across the ups and downs.
zk9
post Dec 15 2013, 06:35 AM

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u think when recession people who still waiting can easily buy ?. Interest rate will be hike up and impact a lot. unless bullet got millions
ManutdGiggs
post Dec 15 2013, 07:42 AM

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QUOTE(zk9 @ Dec 15 2013, 06:35 AM)
u think when recession people who still waiting can easily buy ?. Interest rate will be hike up and impact a lot. unless bullet got millions
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+1. But realised many ddd gentlemen here r holding millionssssss. brows.gif
icemanfx
post Dec 15 2013, 08:09 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 14 2013, 11:18 PM)
Whereas those investors who buy during good times, continue to buy during bad times. They manage to pick up many good deals. These investors usually have target price and will make the move when their target price is met.
Provided their investments are not below water, maintaining good ccris record and still can secure bank loan.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 15 2013, 08:17 AM
icemanfx
post Dec 15 2013, 08:16 AM

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QUOTE(zk9 @ Dec 15 2013, 06:35 AM)
u think when recession people who still waiting can easily buy ?. Interest rate will be hike up and impact a lot. unless bullet got millions
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In the U.S, Spain, Greece and U.K, foreclosure units could go below 60% of peak price. One don't need millions to pick up good properties. Those who didn't buy at peak unlikely to have bad CCris record hence bank loan won't be a problem.
icemanfx
post Dec 15 2013, 08:22 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 14 2013, 11:24 PM)
The general prices of property in malaysia over a long period (for eg. 10 years) has never came down. It is quite a linear upward graph. With the exception of a few individual projects
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Before gold peak, gold price was on upward trend for over 15 years.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 15 2013, 08:23 AM
gspirit01
post Dec 15 2013, 08:40 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 14 2013, 11:24 PM)
The general prices of property in malaysia over a long period (for eg. 10 years) has never came down. It is quite a linear upward graph. With the exception of a few individual projects
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Property everywhere has to go up intrinsically. It is built in the system. However, when there is bubble,fear will bring down before it goes up again. Recent example:

1. US
2. Spain
3. Vietnam
4. China 溫州

Don't be a UUU or DDD camp. One should analyze himself/herself.

My friend made 10k a month. After all expenses, KWSP, income tax, car loan, he can't afford a landed property nowaday. With average household salary of 6-7k in big city like KL, I supposed 10K is in the 80 percentile or higher. What do we tell about the holding power of average ?

There is RM500 loan payment for every 100K loan. If you hv two properties under loan, loan payment easily comes up to 5k amount. If it is not rented out, it is not so easy for ordinary people. For flipper with 4 or 5 properties, it is just not sustainable.

This post has been edited by gspirit01: Dec 15 2013, 08:51 AM
Showtime747
post Dec 15 2013, 08:49 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 15 2013, 08:22 AM)
Before gold peak, gold price was on upward trend for over 15 years.
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Suddenly gold come into discussion ? rclxub.gif

Why not talk about forex then ? tongue.gif
prophetjul
post Dec 15 2013, 08:56 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 15 2013, 08:22 AM)
Before gold peak, gold price was on upward trend for over 15 years.
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Alo...............gold last uptrend started in 2000 till 2011...........only about 10 to 11 years, not over 15 years lah
Showtime747
post Dec 15 2013, 08:57 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 15 2013, 08:40 AM)

My friend made 10k a month.  After all expenses, KWSP, income tax, car loan, he can't afford a landed property nowaday.  With average household salary of 6-7k in big city like KL, I supposed 10K is in the 80 percentile or higher.  What do we tell about the holding power of average ?

There is RM500 loan payment for every 100K loan.  If you hv two properties under loan, loan payment easily comes up to 5k amount.  If it is not rented out, it is not so easy for ordinary people.  For flipper with 4 or 5 properties, it is just not sustainable.
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Agree with you. Landed in KL prime area is less and less affordable. But if one is willing to travel, outskirt of KL still has some affordable DSL. Just that human nature is naturally picky

As for flipper with 4-5 properties, I wonder where they got their bank loan if they can't afford. They must be making tens of thousand per month if they want to get loans from bank right ? Are you making an assumption that the banks will provide loans to all flipper who want to buy 4-5 properties irregardless of how much they earn per month ?
Showtime747
post Dec 15 2013, 09:00 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 15 2013, 08:56 AM)
Alo...............gold last  uptrend started in 2000 till 2011...........only about 10 to 11 years, not over 15 years lah
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If he look at the gold price for the period of 1971-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2010, then he will know gold price fluctuate a lot. It is not like malaysian property which is generally a steady straight line upward trend
prophetjul
post Dec 15 2013, 09:05 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 15 2013, 09:00 AM)
If he look at the gold price for the period of 1971-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2010, then he will know gold price fluctuate a lot. It is not like malaysian property which is generally a steady straight line upward trend
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This last gold bull trend started in 2000 till 2011........between 1981 to 2000, gold was in a bear
Wiredx
post Dec 15 2013, 09:06 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 15 2013, 09:00 AM)
If he look at the gold price for the period of 1971-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2010, then he will know gold price fluctuate a lot. It is not like malaysian property which is generally a steady straight line upward trend
*
Not a direct comment to this but property is largely banking/credit related but gold isnt. The risk factors (and outcomes) are different, unless people borrow to speculate in gold.
SUStat3179
post Dec 15 2013, 09:28 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 15 2013, 08:16 AM)
In the U.S, Spain, Greece and U.K, foreclosure units could go below 60% of peak price. One don't need millions to pick up good properties. Those who didn't buy at peak unlikely to have bad CCris record hence bank loan won't be a problem.
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Really? From what I hear, the biggest problem in those countries is that banks hoard money like no tomorrow and refuse to lend freely.

It was not easy to borrow money unless you are very strong financially and until helicopter Ben start to print money like no tomorrow...
plumberly
post Dec 15 2013, 09:40 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 15 2013, 09:05 AM)
This last gold bull trend started in 2000 till 2011........between 1981 to 2000, gold was in a bear
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My 2 cents on gold.

Used to think of it as a good vehicle to preserve and grow wealth. But ...

Till I saw a gold price profile a year or two ago. Flat line since 1900's till 1970's where it started to pick up (I think that was due to President Nixon (?) who stopped the US$-gold pegging and they could print US$ without putting the equivalent amount in gold in the reserve). If I remember correctly, that was the only major increase for so many years and I don't think I want an investment taking some 30-40 years to see the gain.

Also, limited industrial application for gold (semi conductor etc) and I feel the main price driver is politic/major incident which are beyond a normal person's ability to study, analyse, monitor, etc. I think silver, platinum etc have wider industrial applications and thus the demand and price driver.

There are some who have benefited from investing in gold, no doubt. It is just not my cup of tea. Maybe I should read on gold to get the correct picture! Ha.

Cheerio.


plumberly
post Dec 15 2013, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 14 2013, 09:44 PM)
Back in 96 no one expect the economy would collapse in 97-98,  it was full boom, in fact u need to pay to join koperasi & pay large sum under table line up over night to get a house.

Properties was at full boom, every one thought economy would never slow down,  It's thought that Malaysia going to join Hong Kong, Taiwan,  Korea & Singapore as 5th Asia Dragon.

One of my relative supplying building material still expanding his business,  a year later went bankrupt as over expand & developer cabut with goods never pay, house,  car, shop, lorry all confiscated.

One of my bros friend always jokes to us that he bought a invisible condo in the sky, end up paying 35K for nothing  abandoned project was aplenty during late 90's.

U r indeed lucky never get a pay cut or cut your staff pay..lol
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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 14 2013, 10:55 PM)
I knew some people who lost plenty of money during 98 crisis.  One went bankrupt, and never goes back up until today.  He lost his factory, cars, etc.  If I am not mistaken, he invested in properties.

The other one actually got billed out by family, as he lost too much money in stock market playing margin in 98.  He told me that he wasn't in any mood to work at all during the good time, as he could make hundreds of thousands in days. He was in construction lines.  He said on those days, developers never ask about your prices, they just ask when can you start and whether you have manpower.

A friend bought a house at that time for investment, and left vacant for many yrs.  Only past few years, she managed to sell the house with price she felt ok.

I dun think Malaysia was affected much in 2008.  At least not that I could feel.  I think share market got affected more in 2008.  I think I could only remember NPL was bad, and bank shares are very cheap.  But somehow, nobody dared to buy.
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 14 2013, 11:18 PM)
All I know is that during downturn in 1998 and 2008, the sentiment is so bad that most people don't dare to make moves. Those people who are waiting for the price to go down kept on waiting for even lower price. When they finally decided to buy, the bank don't dare to loan them. Or they lost job because the economy is so bad. Although they have money in the bank saved up to buy properties, but because they lost their jobs, the bullet became their emergency funds. At the end, not many transactions during recession

Whereas those investors who buy during good times, continue to buy during bad times. They manage to pick up many good deals. These investors usually have target price and will make the move when their target price is met.

The lesson is set a target price. When the price meet your target, make your move immediately. If you wait and think the market will get lower and lower and even lower, you will never buy anything at all in the end
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Thanks for the sharing.

Some of us here are hoping and waiting for the bubble to burst and then get in to get some bargain properties. Right?

But saying it is easy. Doing it is another story.

How to do it? - rely on real estate agents?
What price is a bargain? - 30% discount from the peak?
When is the right time? - till RTM news says the property market is now at the bottom?
How much should one borrow? - maximise OPM (other people money) for this rare opportunity?
etc
etc

Appreciate some sharing on this to lay a better foundation/basis on this rewarding property journey.

Cheerio.





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