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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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icemanfx
post Dec 13 2013, 06:55 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 13 2013, 05:57 PM)
No problem according to pemandu greater kl expect to increase its population from current 6 millions to 10 millions by 2020, with 8.4 millions citizens & 1.6 millions foreigners from current 540K, assume we will have arround 26 millions population in peninsular Malaysia 6 years from now (current 23.5 millions),  meaning about 1 in every 3 Peninsular Malaysians will be livings in greater kl.
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Are you expecting newly borned babies and children to buy?

SUSjolokia
post Dec 13 2013, 07:58 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 13 2013, 06:55 PM)
Are you expecting newly borned babies and children to buy?
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http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...20-by-2020.aspx

According to this article the only way to reduce house prices is to build more house, to achieve 2.5 person in every house from our current 6.2 person in every house, assuming urban area to have even smaller family like less than 2, yes u need to get 1 for your parents, 1 for u & your spouse, assume you have 2 kids another house for them.

To reduce house prices we need more house, according to this particular developer write up.

According to REHDA the reason behind house prices escalating is due to huge demand & limited supply of land plus high demand of building materials, meaning the higher the demand the higher the price.

Now u see my drift ?
gspirit01
post Dec 13 2013, 08:11 PM

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I hv a relative visiting from hk. She confirm that hong kong prop has indeed come down. Some are even 10-20%. Next, singapore, then Malaysia ?
TiramisuCoffee
post Dec 13 2013, 09:09 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Dec 12 2013, 07:51 PM)
Thanks, ManutdGiggs! wink.gif huh...how come piak, piak is not listed ? ......
Kevin Chan
post Dec 13 2013, 09:19 PM

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Came back from Taiwan last week ... wanna look at some Taiwan price ?

its written there 1.6million NT per Pheng for that condo ... which is NT160k psf.
Malaysia one expensive ?

located directly across the street from Taipei 101.
I tell you if it drop 20% so what ...

These is really bubble price notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by Kevin Chan: Dec 13 2013, 09:20 PM


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gspirit01
post Dec 13 2013, 09:23 PM

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QUOTE(Kevin Chan @ Dec 13 2013, 09:19 PM)
Came back from Taiwan last week ... wanna look at some Taiwan price ?

its written there 1.6million NT per Pheng for that condo ... which is NT160k psf.
Malaysia one expensive ?

located directly across the street from Taipei 101. 
I tell you if it drop 20% so what ...

These is really bubble price  notworthy.gif
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That is true. Taiwan could be the country that will not be much affected. Their interest rate is just way too low!
icemanfx
post Dec 13 2013, 10:28 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 13 2013, 07:58 PM)
According to this article the only way to reduce house prices is to build more house, to achieve 2.5 person in every house from our current 6.2 person in every house, assuming urban area to have even smaller family like less than 2, yes u need to get 1 for your parents,  1 for u & your spouse,  assume you have 2 kids another house for them.
It is a question of affordability; no doubt for top 10% of earners, for next 70% earners may take a span of 10 to 20 years.

QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 13 2013, 07:58 PM)
To reduce house prices we need more house,  according to this particular developer write up.
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When the supply is over demand, price will drop naturally and demand will increase to reach a new equilibrium.

QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 13 2013, 07:58 PM)
According to REHDA the reason behind house prices escalating is due to huge demand & limited supply of land plus high demand of building materials,  meaning the higher the demand the higher the price.
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Current stock of 165,574 units took 20 to 30 years to accumulate. If there is truly limited supply of land, number under construction should be much lower than 46,098 (27%) units.
On paper, huge demand is undeniable, however a large portion of this demand is intended for subsell.

In the long term, surplus supply will be taken up if price drop sufficiently. The real McCoy is without price reduction, can subsell demand take up subsell supply in the next few years.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 13 2013, 10:29 PM
icemanfx
post Dec 13 2013, 10:35 PM

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QUOTE(Kevin Chan @ Dec 13 2013, 09:19 PM)
Came back from Taiwan last week ... wanna look at some Taiwan price ?

its written there 1.6million NT per Pheng for that condo ... which is NT160k psf.
Malaysia one expensive ?

located directly across the street from Taipei 101. 
I tell you if it drop 20% so what ...

These is really bubble price  notworthy.gif
*
1 phêng (Chinese: 坪; pinyin: píng; Pe̍h-ōe-jī: phêng) = 3.306 square meters

NT 1.6m/pheng is NT483,968/m2 or NT44,811 psf.


Kevin Chan
post Dec 13 2013, 10:42 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 13 2013, 10:35 PM)
1 phêng (Chinese: 坪; pinyin: píng; Pe̍h-ōe-jī: phêng) = 3.306 square meters

NT 1.6m/pheng is NT483,968/m2 or NT44,811 psf.
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forgot 3 x 3 is 9 ... oops doh.gif
A.B.D.
post Dec 13 2013, 10:43 PM

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Taipei 4k psf better than KL 2k psf, at least that is a real developed world city.

In KL you see a very different demography walking around, and you wonder if the price make sense for the area or not. High risk of violent crime also.

The rich people including our own ministers are buying up properties overseas instead of KL.

This post has been edited by A.B.D.: Dec 13 2013, 10:45 PM
gspirit01
post Dec 14 2013, 06:33 AM

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Courtesy of malaysiaminion in the fennel.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/highlights/...lden-goose.html

Really really dumbfounded!
SUStat3179
post Dec 14 2013, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 14 2013, 06:33 AM)
Courtesy of malaysiaminion in the fennel.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/highlights/...lden-goose.html

Really really dumbfounded!
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Well, I guess the 1 million ruling really did us in.

At least there will soon be plenty of cheap props at iskandar soon....
tangibee
post Dec 14 2013, 10:20 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 14 2013, 09:31 AM)
Well, I guess the 1 million ruling really did us in.

At least there will soon be plenty of cheap props at iskandar soon....
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cheap prop soon in iskandar?
icemanfx
post Dec 14 2013, 11:16 AM

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QUOTE(tangibee @ Dec 14 2013, 10:20 AM)
cheap prop soon in iskandar?
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Given number of units under construction, it is almost certain.

plumberly
post Dec 14 2013, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 14 2013, 11:16 AM)
Given number of units under construction, it is almost certain.
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Oh dear! A good friend of mine bought an apartment early this year when they had the promotion at a hotel. With all the goodies (free SPA fee, loan interest etc). Yes, all these freebies are already included in the selling price.

I stayed away from it as there are just too many apartments there and getting tenants later will be a struggle with the over supply. I may be wrong. Wait and see.

Cheerio.

tangibee
post Dec 14 2013, 02:50 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 14 2013, 11:16 AM)
Given number of units under construction, it is almost certain.
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I can agree if cheap prop is defined as budgeted prop and it did not go up much after vp (up less than 20%). Unlikely price cut to the level DDD campers are dreaming of.
SUSjolokia
post Dec 14 2013, 03:42 PM

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QUOTE(tangibee @ Dec 14 2013, 02:50 PM)
I can agree if cheap prop is defined as budgeted prop and it did not go up much after vp (up less than 20%). Unlikely price cut to the level DDD campers are dreaming of.
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Read from some expat forum US property market actually going into a long stall period before crashing, people would wait before finally give up.

Its a waiting game, so long not in desperate both buyers & sellers would test each other patients.

It's a fox & rabbit game, DDD campers is fox chasing for food while UUU campers is like rabbit running for life, if the fox missed the yummy rabbit can always look for other easier target (eg other investment), while weaker flipper may end up with a bankruptcy if can't afford after vp, bankruptcy in Malaysia is no jokes.

http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/artic...d-and-lived-in/

This post has been edited by jolokia: Dec 14 2013, 04:12 PM
tangibee
post Dec 14 2013, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 14 2013, 03:42 PM)
Read from some expat forum US property market actually going into a long stall period before crashing,  people would wait before finally give up.

Its a waiting game, so long not in desperate both buyers & sellers would test each other patients.

It's a fox & rabbit game, DDD campers is fox chasing for food while UUU campers is like rabbit running for life, if the fox missed the yummy rabbit can always look for other easier target (eg other investment), while weaker flipper may end up with a bankruptcy if can't afford after vp, bankruptcy in Malaysia is no jokes.

http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/artic...d-and-lived-in/
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Many UUU will rather suitable as bull (not rabbit) and fox is welcome to wait.
ManutdGiggs
post Dec 14 2013, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 14 2013, 03:42 PM)
weaker flipper may end up with a bankruptcy if can't afford after vp, bankruptcy in Malaysia is no jokes.

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If tat happen again which similar to 84 and 97, then its a pretty gd time for uuu camp to further position themselves. It ll b a who get it 1st and who predict more accurately. icon_rolleyes.gif

Of cos, young flippers hav to watch the show in audience seats la. Seasoned investors ll benefit most. Not to mentioned some special case where billionaires can turn broke overnight. sweat.gif

There is a saying in US to compare the rich. Who is richer between Donald Trump & Mother Teressa. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by ManutdGiggs: Dec 14 2013, 04:38 PM
SUSjolokia
post Dec 14 2013, 06:34 PM

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QUOTE(tangibee @ Dec 14 2013, 04:25 PM)
Many UUU will rather suitable as bull (not rabbit) and fox is welcome to wait.
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Then many DDD campers r "Matador" laugh.gif


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