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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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BTimes
post Jan 10 2014, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 10 2014, 09:53 AM)
U are right downpayment everyting can be settle.. installment also can join.. for 35 years... just for you to earn that no brainer 100k.. 150k or even 200k.. u really Qin emperor just for the undergroundfrotress( flipped price) u need everyone to join ti satisfied your appetite so dat you invest elsewhere.. I agree those first hand buyers deserve some profit but 200k upon completion.. that is future price 5 years at least or even 10 years.. it definately overpriced.. u got read my setia echo hill post here.. u are behaving like one of them right...

more shocking I shall calculate in precise total payment to bank for a 750k prop in KV at the end the house actually worth 1.5 m..at least when u finish servicing.. a DSL 35 years down the road must be sold at 1.6 million despite old.. thise hold longer 5 years willlock their money servicing loans worth of 3k permonth if accumulated for 5 years without DIBS is 180k which is enough deposit to flip 3 units at least...

Wait them rot.. get their credit situation and press their price.. if not let them bancrupt they sure have other prooerties in hand to cover.. u really hard core holding a lot of units..
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It appears overpriced because the previous paper money you have in the bank has lost its purchasing value and some developers/sellers also do get greedy rolleyes.gif

You can wait for prices to crash before buying, but it becomes a probability game. You may need a house sooner than it crashes. If it is the other way round, then I congratulate you on your foresight smile.gif But based on your (emotional) posts here, I think you are quite keen on getting a lovely house soon.
kidmad
post Jan 10 2014, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(cody99 @ Jan 10 2014, 09:59 AM)
Well, I don't know how the economic will turn

But from history, If you look at economic cycle... it is 10 years cycle...
Just look at 1997-1008; 2007-2008; so i guess it will be 2017-2018.
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I've once said 2015.. and i still think we will be hit pretty hard next year if the government still doesn't do anything.
bearbearwong
post Jan 10 2014, 11:41 AM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 10 2014, 10:18 AM)
It appears overpriced because the previous paper money you have in the bank has lost its purchasing value and some developers/sellers also do get greedy  rolleyes.gif

You can wait for prices to crash before buying, but it becomes a probability game.  You may need a house sooner than it crashes.  If it is the other way round, then I congratulate you on your foresight  smile.gif  But based on your (emotional) posts here, I think you are quite keen on getting a lovely house soon.
*
Hmm.. you are cash loaded surely holding power good.and many of your kind as well.. this will not affect you.... just service d loan.. wait for the perfect waterfish..

well with the price hike today.. dat everyone is coping maybe u can hold bit longer. Well GST coming in as well.. I know u will increase the prop price factoring the same right.. keep doing untill it reaches 1 million bar.. see how d market reacts.. I m saying majority( those selling house to clean money exclude yourself)

you are sending a message to potential buyers that you will not reduce the price.. u will increase ur prop further..u are challenging that your holding power will last long enough and taking opportunity coz u will need a house soon.. u will make SURE potential BUYERS CREDIT 200K NETT PROFIT IN YOUR ACCOUNT so that u can invest elsewhere.. right..
TScybermaster98
post Jan 10 2014, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jan 10 2014, 10:25 AM)
I've once said 2015.. and i still think we will be hit pretty hard next year if the government still doesn't do anything.
Yes i think 2015 would provide a clear indication of what is to come. But we will see the signs before the end of this year especially with the new property launches. Another indication would be the increase of the BLR rates and the new BLR framework announcement by Bank Negara which is supposed to be in Q1. Already we are seeing numerous businesses raising prices from food to parking rates and many of these increases are quite big up to 30%.
kidmad
post Jan 10 2014, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jan 10 2014, 11:54 AM)
Yes i think 2015 would provide a clear indication of what is to come. But we will see the signs before the end of this year especially with the new property launches. Another indication would be the increase of the BLR rates and the new BLR framework announcement by Bank Negara which is supposed to be in Q1. Already we are seeing numerous businesses raising prices from food to parking rates and many of these increases are quite big up to 30%.
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do you think the BLR would sky rocket? or do you think it would go the other way round? I just hope our government could be sensible and help us out.. Singapore home loan interest rate is < 2%.. sad.gif I'm so sad when all my cousin's were servicing their loan at 1.8% interest rate per annum while I'm servicing a 4.2% interest per annum.. more than double..
TScybermaster98
post Jan 10 2014, 12:13 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jan 10 2014, 11:59 AM)
do you think the BLR would sky rocket? or do you think it would go the other way round? I just hope our government could be sensible and help us out.. Singapore home loan interest rate is < 2%..  sad.gif  I'm so sad when all my cousin's were servicing their loan at 1.8% interest rate per annum while I'm servicing a 4.2% interest per annum.. more than double..
Im expecting the BLR to go up by at least 25 basis points this year up to a max 50 basis points (depending on how heated the property market becomes). But i think the first hike of 25 basis points would work in cooling down the property market somewhat which would negate the need for a 2nd hike.
TScybermaster98
post Jan 10 2014, 12:14 PM

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How do we get this topic pinned as IMPORTANT? I think it will be a good reference until 2015.
cody99
post Jan 10 2014, 12:15 PM

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SG n HK interest is cheap.
At one time US interest is even cheaper.

Every year people talking about bubble since I was young, and what happen since then?
People still taking about bubble burst 2009, bubble burst 2011, etc, etc

What I trying to say is, it is difficult to know when the economic will adjuct itself... but what human can do is be prepared when it happen.
Balrog
post Jan 10 2014, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jan 10 2014, 11:59 AM)
do you think the BLR would sky rocket? or do you think it would go the other way round? I just hope our government could be sensible and help us out.. Singapore home loan interest rate is < 2%..  sad.gif  I'm so sad when all my cousin's were servicing their loan at 1.8% interest rate per annum while I'm servicing a 4.2% interest per annum.. more than double..
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Interest rate for house loan will definitely go up.

One way to tell is to compare with 10 year government bond yield (which is the interest rate at which the Malaysian government is borrowing money, for 10 year loans). 10 year is suitable for comparison because on average housing loans are settled in roughly 10 years (the loan tenure may be 30 years or whatever, but on average it will be settled earlier as the house is sold etc).

Malaysian government 10 year bond yield is 4.2%, a big jump from just six months ago. So certainly the current interest rate for housing loan does not make sense, because as a lender, there is no reason to loan to house buyers at the same rate as loaning to Malaysia government (house buyers should pay a higher interest). I am not sure what is the difference in yield in Malaysia historically, but in the US, the gap is 1.0% to 1.5%.

By the way, one big factor driving up the interest is of course the plan to reduce and eventually eliminate the QE in the US.

Malaysia gov 10 year bond yield
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/mal...101&d2=20141231

US gov 10 year bond yield
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year/charts

This post has been edited by Balrog: Jan 10 2014, 12:32 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 10 2014, 12:49 PM

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QUOTE(Balrog @ Jan 10 2014, 12:27 PM)
Malaysian government 10 year bond yield is 4.2%, a big jump from just six months ago. So certainly the current interest rate for housing loan does not make sense, because as a lender, there is no reason to loan to house buyers at the same rate as loaning to Malaysia government (house buyers should pay a higher interest). I am not sure what is the difference in yield in Malaysia historically, but in the US, the gap is 1.0% to 1.5%.

think so too.

and this is where a lot of people are unaware.

there is only so low u can go with domestic int rates becos it has to jive with external borrowing rates and currency strength which in turn is partly driven by earnings in fx and fdi coming into the country.

if cases of india and indonesia now, fx leaving, currencies took a dive, central banks forced to raise rates. no choice, if not, it'll get even worse.

our rates now as as low as they can be, no room to cut as commented by world bodies incl worldbank abd adb. given all that we know about current budget deficit, big push to raise taxes, debt levels, continued wasteful spending and illicit money outflow, there is every reason to think domestic rates will go up in the near future - a matter of much much and how fast.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 10 2014, 12:52 PM
prody
post Jan 10 2014, 01:17 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 10 2014, 10:18 AM)
It appears overpriced because the previous paper money you have in the bank has lost its purchasing value and some developers/sellers also do get greedy  rolleyes.gif

You can wait for prices to crash before buying, but it becomes a probability game.  You may need a house sooner than it crashes.  If it is the other way round, then I congratulate you on your foresight  smile.gif  But based on your (emotional) posts here, I think you are quite keen on getting a lovely house soon.
*
You can always rent if you think prices are likely to drop. There doesn't need to be a crash.

Example:
- 600k house with installment of about 3k (landed), previously selling at 300k
- most probably you can rent this at 1.5k
- in 1 year you spend 18k on rental
- basic calculation, if house price drops by 3% (18/600*100) you will have saved money
prody
post Jan 10 2014, 01:18 PM

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QUOTE(Balrog @ Jan 10 2014, 12:27 PM)
Interest rate for house loan will definitely go up.

One way to tell is to compare with 10 year government bond yield (which is the interest rate at which the Malaysian government is borrowing money, for 10 year loans). 10 year is suitable for comparison because on average housing loans are settled in roughly 10 years (the loan tenure may be 30 years or whatever, but on average it will be settled earlier as the house is sold etc).

Malaysian government 10 year bond yield is 4.2%, a big jump from just six months ago. So certainly the current interest rate for housing loan does not make sense, because as a lender, there is no reason to loan to house buyers at the same rate as loaning to Malaysia government (house buyers should pay a higher interest). I am not sure what is the difference in yield in Malaysia historically, but in the US, the gap is 1.0% to 1.5%.

By the way, one big factor driving up the interest is of course the plan to reduce and eventually eliminate the QE in the US.

Malaysia gov 10 year bond yield
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/mal...101&d2=20141231

US gov 10 year bond yield
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year/charts
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Good info there, thanks.
kidmad
post Jan 10 2014, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(Balrog @ Jan 10 2014, 12:27 PM)
Interest rate for house loan will definitely go up.

One way to tell is to compare with 10 year government bond yield (which is the interest rate at which the Malaysian government is borrowing money, for 10 year loans). 10 year is suitable for comparison because on average housing loans are settled in roughly 10 years (the loan tenure may be 30 years or whatever, but on average it will be settled earlier as the house is sold etc).

Malaysian government 10 year bond yield is 4.2%, a big jump from just six months ago. So certainly the current interest rate for housing loan does not make sense, because as a lender there is no reason to loan to house buyers at the same rate as loaning to Malaysia government (house buyers should be pay a higher interest). I am not sure what is the difference in yield in Malaysia historically, but in the US, the gap is 1.0% to 1.5%.

By the way, one big factor driving up the interest is of course the plan to reduce and eventually eliminate the QE in the US.

Malaysia gov 10 year bond yield
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/mal...101&d2=20141231

US gov 10 year bond yield
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year/charts
*
Good info there.
joeblows
post Jan 10 2014, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 10 2014, 10:18 AM)
It appears overpriced because the previous paper money you have in the bank has lost its purchasing value and some developers/sellers also do get greedy  rolleyes.gif

You can wait for prices to crash before buying, but it becomes a probability game.  You may need a house sooner than it crashes.  If it is the other way round, then I congratulate you on your foresight  smile.gif  But based on your (emotional) posts here, I think you are quite keen on getting a lovely house soon.
*
Based on your emotional posts here, I think you are holding quite a few props in a stagnant market with a negative outlook.

Quite hard to flip now eh? smile.gif
joeblows
post Jan 10 2014, 03:58 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jan 10 2014, 12:13 PM)
Im expecting the BLR to go up by at least 25 basis points this year up to a max 50 basis points (depending on how heated the property market becomes). But i think the first hike of 25 basis points would work in cooling down the property market somewhat which would negate the need for a 2nd hike.
*
There is A LOT of excess liquidity in the market though, thanks to our government overprinting.

25 basis points is a given (anyone dare to bet against it? LOL) but I honestly feel >50 basis points increase over the next 12-18 months is highly likely, especially with US tapering, and perhaps the deflation of the Singaporean & HK property bubbles....
SUSNew Klang
post Jan 10 2014, 03:59 PM

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I do hope the price is stagnant so that I am not under pressure to buy one property this year and have the luxury of time to wait 5 years to make that purchase.

However as the saying goes, one in the pocket is better than ten in the wild.
joeblows
post Jan 10 2014, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Jan 10 2014, 01:17 PM)
You can always rent if you think prices are likely to drop. There doesn't need to be a crash.

Example:
- 600k house with installment of about 3k (landed), previously selling at 300k
- most probably you can rent this at 1.5k
- in 1 year you spend 18k on rental
- basic calculation, if house price drops by 3% (18/600*100) you will have saved money
*
Not to mention for 600k house, downpayment of RM60k.

Put that RM60k in FD with a yield of 3.5% = you get RM2.1k

IF that RM60k is in EPF, you've earned even more!
joeblows
post Jan 10 2014, 04:01 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Jan 10 2014, 03:59 PM)

However as the saying goes, one in the pocket is better than ten in the wild.
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Very true, however unless you are paying cash, bear in mind that the "one in the pocket" may very well bite you in the @ss. wink.gif
BTimes
post Jan 10 2014, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Jan 10 2014, 03:53 PM)
Based on your emotional posts here, I think you are holding quite a few props in a stagnant market with a negative outlook.

Quite hard to flip now eh? smile.gif
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I have already mentioned that they are meant to be held in perpetuity smile.gif
coolster
post Jan 10 2014, 04:43 PM

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Hi all,

my recent home loan application from 3 local banks have set that maximum financing this year would be 80%, no more 90%. It is really shocking to me though.

Seems like property bubble burst is coming.

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