The unrealistic one will be the hardest hit. In this case it will be the new launches but not all. Only the ones which have been unrealistically priced will be hit. The others might sustain a hit or prolonged stagnation depending on severity of the slump.

New launches are now priced at RM700psf onwards e.g Sqwhere(subpar location). Assuming a crisis hit, what will developers do? They will most likely stop launching. Assuming prices for subsale go down 20% from RM600psf to RM480psf in locations like Kota Damansara, at what price will developers price their launching once everything stabilises but have not recovered? Will they price lower than 700psf in areas like Kota Damansara( remember that Tropicana Gardens are at about 1,000psf or more now. If no, how do you expect subsales to fall any further?

Magic word !!

"The rule of thumb is never buy at the peak or just before a slump (which is now)."

Those who bought it cheaper earlier have ample buffer to price slash, some properties actually appreciated (in paper) like 50% between 2011-2013 so selling way below current market price is not a problem.

Many condo r sustained through foreigners tenants,  when economic going down trends these "tempo" tenants may just vanished, owner who highly depends on rental to cover their multiple properties have no choice  but to let go with little profit or cost.

As for those who bought it at peak,  either hold it for long..time or end up lelong...lol
..good luck.

+1 to that!

I'm always fascinated by the people who claim that they can read all the signs in the world, knowing that a property bubble is just around the corner. And I've been hearing about it for years, which makes it all the more laughable. Maybe he/she is going around in a circle, thus, the endless wait for the circle.

Oh well, I've profited quite a tidy sum from property investment in the past few years. Glad that I jumped into the market back then. Interestingly, some of my friends who strongly advised me not to invest back then were personal wealth investment consultants based in Singapore. Education from reputable universities in the States and working with the likes of Merrill Lynch and Black Rock. They advised me that equities were the way to go, as compared to real estate.

salary ... stagnant for the past 5 years and will continue for the next 5 years
prop price ... up
rental rates ... up

Time to increase the rent 😎😎😎, I am increasing my rental for my new tenant for next year

Property developer increasing price😳😳?

I guess nobody will know the exact time.  Every Mark is watching another Mark, with legs ready to run to the door.  Matter of fact, that is why many of us are here:  to gauge when the time is or whether it is in fact coming. 

If u believe in George Soros's Reflexivity theory (too abstract that I only understand abit after few time readings), the trend has already started!  I knew from my earlier experience when my Iris plunged 1 days after I bought them.  Selling immediately has never crossed my mind.  After I am grown a bit, I realised that, at that time, selling immediately means that I have to admit I have made a big mistake a day earlier. And my earlier decision is not made in a short time.  To admit my carefully made decision is a mistake after only a short time, it was (or is still) beyond my brain's abilities to accept!  Everybody has gambling nature in him/her.  This is required for survivor.

QUOTE(zonefinder @ Nov 22 2013, 05:35 PM)
Aiyah, don't frighten folks like that lah icon_rolleyes.gif  Let me tell you a bit of my personal experience. I was in Spore in mid 90s. At that time, property there as booming and my contemporaries there never experienced a downturn in property prices ...ever, since independence. Same sentiments..pty prices will never go down...
I bought a condo in 96 close to peak in the market. Market corrected big time the next year in 1997. My condo dropped 25% and stayed at that level for about 6-7 years. Balls oso dropped lah but I held. Prices came back big time in 2005. Sold end 2005 with profit of 60%. Point I'm trying to make here is that if you have holding power and a medium to long term investor or for own use, properties is the best investment out there. cool2.gif

Do u think it is ok ? Maybe somebody can study this:

https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2959260

This is one of the biggest untold secret of capitalism!

Share with us what you have learned if you don't mind.

LOL !! Meaning if 1997 crisis repeat itself, you still average down ?
Your 2nd point (Stick to the plan whatever happens) TAK BOLEH PAKAI !!
We all humans, morta,l NOT immortal, ada emotions, ada needs, so there's NO WAY we would stick to our earlier plan come what may !!!
You would know what I mean if you ever had the chance to cross that bridge !!
Just my 2 sen

stop-lost don't work during a free fall of stock. trading happen when your price match the asking price.

lets say you stop lost at RM10 while the panic market lelong at RM9, your trade will never happen since they need to match all the RM9 stock first before doing your RM10 stock ... then people lelong at RM8.

you need to be in the market to actively change your price ... and of course your broker/remiser need to be able to key it in fast enough ... .. .

profit taking target would work, since your price will be lowest during an up trend ... you be bust stopping the sell and waiting for better price.

market going either way, its not good for your blood pressure. 

I'm most curious, why the average Malaysians die die must own a property instead of comfortable with renting . Renting not a bad option actually. Don't like the place, can simply move out. Can upgrade residence without needing to worry about assessment, rpgt, maintenance fee etc etc... 

There is an increasing holding cost for house investment.  Investors are forced to increase their sell price every year, if they ever plan to sell.

At 4.5% interest rate and 1 mil loan, they hv to increase their sell price by:  interest paid ($44,813.13) + legal fees +management fee (if any) + sell commission ($20,000 to  $30,000) + etc. = roughly $100,000 after Year 1.  So, the selling price has to be adjusted to $1.1 mil

At 5.5%, the figure goes up to $110,000 After Year 1.  The sell price has to be up to $1.11 mil.

At 7.5%, the sell price has to be up to $1.17 mils.

it appears that we must buy.. but if no one is buying your crashed 1.6 million property, then how hold another 5 years?

once property in which you hold more than 5 years.. your new property still looks new and price the same? how about new properties coming up? because if you are planning to have 100% appreciation say 2 million from 1 million originally, the new projects will definitely be lower say start selling at RM1.3 million and your crashed property with 5 years in old cost 1.6 million.. how to buy?

which one will you buy then? Lets use bandar mahkota cheras (BMC),

section 5 BMC is selling at RM780K for a brand new double investors.. originally RM450K only by CHoontian,
Section 2 or 3 of BMC desa vista OLD HOUSING is selling up to RM760K

now u may see proximity in both prices, but as a buyer which one will you buy? the brand new DS or the old DS which is 20X 65 as compared to 24X 75.  the expected profit that investors is seeking is the price 5 years from now or maybe 10 years from now. the property price may reach that expected height but then again if you carefully lookat section 1 or 2 of BMC some failed investors hold the property too long till the whole house become so bad in condition with missing gates, windows long grass.. more like bukit beruntung.

the style and trend of the said house is far slacking behind as good as holding it for 5 years..

another clear example would be saujana villa kajang.. those prop been there for years still occupancy was less that 50%.my mother's friend bought a unit there the owner planning to sell it at 1.3 million, he was then counter offered 900k and finally settled at 1M. the original price was 780k. he hold for 4 years.. still many was abandoned

there are similar projects like TTDI groove kajang u name it(lavenia, lily and etc) too.. keys already handed out but no occupancy at all zero.. all are investors who wanted to sell off their property with the price 5 years from now...
too many kajang 2, puncak saujana kajang, jade hills and many more many many more.. setia ecohill semenyih, seri pajam, nilai, kota warisan sepang all will end up the same.. look at the occupancy rates really disturbing

once you plan to rent it out.. your property still as good as 1.6 million.
how much are you planning to rent it our? 4k of loan repayment monthly...means you going to rent the property around 4 k?

in Kl region however, i noticed connought avenue the premier which is adjacent to the new cheras central, amanya residence maluri cheras, new condo nearby bintang mas condo (cheras lrt station) and you vista also suffering to sell their remaining units and of course kl south.. southville haizz.. even in major cities like Kl these units are of low occupancy... thus many investors dont even pay their management fees, sinking funds and etc.. causing the services in a condo or service apartment lack and eventually no management..

the vacant units owner say they will pay the whole sum once they sold the property...

same situation to invested properties.. if occupancy is low.. irregardless of the new project or wat not not.. will you be dare enough to stay there with these insufficient facilities?

my 2 cents of observation

yes, the occupancy rate is very annoying.
My fren who stays in a landed in Kota Kemuning, I think he bought the house 4 yrs ago about RM400k plus, move in 1 year ago, i just when there recently, looks like < 50% occupy. and I believe many places is like that.
But the price has just shoot up to RM700K.

It shows that either the seller cannot sell due to higher asking price or some really means for own stay.
but surprisingly there is no auction for all these houses or condo and it show those property owners are really cash flow strong.

bearbear, in your work, you see bankruptcy everyday. When day in day out you are in contact with person in financial trouble, you will be influenced and thought that the market is bad. Really really bad.

Look at the statistics as a whole.

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2013...ankruptcy.aspx/

2007 13,238
2008 13,855
2009 16,228
2010 18,119
2011 19,167
2012 19,575
2013 16,306 (up to Sept)

Of these bankrupt people, the percentage of types of loan in the highest to lowest order are

Car loan 26.14%
House loan 17.62%
Personal loan 15.50%
Business loan 12.39%
Credit card 4.18%

So, of the 16,306 bankruptcy cases which occur up to Sept 2013, only 2,873 cases are related to housing loan bankruptcy in 2013. Yes, if in your work you see bankruptcy day-in day-out, then you may think that everybody is going to get bankrupt. But overall, it is still too small a number that would cause the bubble to burst. At least not high enough in number to allow us to pick dead chicken yet.

We must wait for the economy to collapse, or BNM increase the interest rate to >3% in order to see dead chicken everywhere on the street.

u dare to buy when economy collapse...??

when economy collapse...all affected...u, me n everybody... nothing much to cheer...

Yes, must increase the price cause seller also need to survive mah.
Problem is that potential pool of buyer is very limited now. so what to do?

The strategy now is very simple. you see fresh graduates hundreds of thousands every year, and majority of them from other states flock to KL to work. They do not have the means to buy from you, so just rent it to them. Property owners must unite and please do not undercut each other on the rental pricing, must fix a baseline rental amount.

So you ask what if they cant afford to pay the rent? (high rent due to expensive installment to banks)
No problem, instead of 3 graduates renting one house, you rent it to 6 graduates sharing the house. I have seen Sunway Monash college did this, partitioned one condo to 6 or 7 rooms and charge RM800 each.

Easy money!! nice or not this strategy?

It appears overpriced because the previous paper money you have in the bank has lost its purchasing value and some developers/sellers also do get greedy 

You can wait for prices to crash before buying, but it becomes a probability game.  You may need a house sooner than it crashes.  If it is the other way round, then I congratulate you on your foresight    But based on your (emotional) posts here, I think you are quite keen on getting a lovely house soon.