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 V11 - Property Prices Discussion, Intelligent debates only pls

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joeblows
post Jun 5 2013, 09:46 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 5 2013, 09:23 AM)

boss, i agree our debt is insanely high. as soon as pru13 was over, it sh!ts me to know that our big man is pushing for a RM1trillion transformation plan!
while our debt is high, do you have any idea where the funds are coming from? internal or external.
if it's external, surely the big boys out there would need some sort of collateral as well, right?
else if bolehland go bust, how would they recover their $$$. any ideas boss?
Malaysian Internal Debt vs External

External debt = RM17B
Internal debt = >> RM475B

Its the internal debt one should be concerned about as it has higher repayment rates. Remember internal debt = EPF, LTAT, ASNB, etc and all these the government is duty bound to pay out >> FD Rates or risk public unrest. Imagine if EPF gave "dividend" (actually repayment) of 2-3%, how much complaints there will be. ASNB even worse, Govt needs to pay out about 7++% at a minimum.

Any default on internal debt, guess whose money will be lost? Yep, ours!!!

There can be no doubt Malaysian govt is in serious financial straits, otherwise they will not be looking at raising petrol prices, removal of subsidies and implementation of GST even though all these will be immensely unpopular moves.
TSkochin
post Jun 5 2013, 09:50 AM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Jun 5 2013, 09:46 AM)
Malaysian Internal Debt vs External

External debt = RM17B
Internal debt = >> RM475B

Its the internal debt one should be concerned about as it has higher repayment rates. Remember internal debt = EPF, LTAT, ASNB, etc and all these the government is duty bound to pay out >> FD Rates or risk public unrest. Imagine if EPF gave "dividend" (actually repayment) of 2-3%, how much complaints there will be. ASNB even worse, Govt needs to pay out about 7++% at a minimum.

Any default on internal debt, guess whose money will be lost? Yep, ours!!!

There can be no doubt Malaysian govt is in serious financial straits, otherwise they will not be looking at raising petrol prices, removal of subsidies and implementation of GST even though all these will be immensely unpopular moves.
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we are sooooooooooooooooo dead...... icon_question.gif
soules83
post Jun 5 2013, 10:50 AM

Hohoho I dunno
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QUOTE(joeblows @ Jun 5 2013, 09:46 AM)
Malaysian Internal Debt vs External

External debt = RM17B
Internal debt = >> RM475B

Its the internal debt one should be concerned about as it has higher repayment rates. Remember internal debt = EPF, LTAT, ASNB, etc and all these the government is duty bound to pay out >> FD Rates or risk public unrest. Imagine if EPF gave "dividend" (actually repayment) of 2-3%, how much complaints there will be. ASNB even worse, Govt needs to pay out about 7++% at a minimum.

Any default on internal debt, guess whose money will be lost? Yep, ours!!!

There can be no doubt Malaysian govt is in serious financial straits, otherwise they will not be looking at raising petrol prices, removal of subsidies and implementation of GST even though all these will be immensely unpopular moves.
*
more strict policy are coming... doh.gif

http://www.propertyguru.com.my/property-ne...m_content=links
AMINT
post Jun 5 2013, 11:02 AM

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Aiya ape susah. I am sure if so pening, bnm will.print more money. Less value for our ringgit
AMINT
post Jun 5 2013, 11:03 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ Jun 5 2013, 09:44 AM)
Thanks. smile.gif
I meant to ask if the asking price for those developments is higher or lower now than the latest transaction price you have.
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I am talking about monthly basis bro. This is the updated one. Keep rising
katijar
post Jun 5 2013, 11:20 AM

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Aiya ape susah. I am sure if so pening, bnm will.print more money. Less value for our ringgit

-------------------------

after settling the loan/interest they continue to spend, then they have to get a higher loan (due to money losing value) and later on have to print more money to settle the loan/interest ... then spend - borrow - print money etc etc ...... this will lead to .... ???
AMINT
post Jun 5 2013, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(katijar @ Jun 5 2013, 11:20 AM)
Aiya ape susah. I am sure if so pening, bnm will.print more money. Less value for our ringgit

-------------------------

after settling the loan/interest they continue to spend, then they have to get a higher loan (due to money losing value) and later on have to print more money to settle the loan/interest ... then spend - borrow - print money etc etc ...... this will lead to .... ???
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Yup this is never a good thing but this will most likely happen
EddyLB
post Jun 5 2013, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Jun 5 2013, 08:41 AM)
Already stated how many times already?

Interest rates rise (may happen), drying up of subsales market burying speculators(already happening), falling rental yields scaring away buy and hold investors (already happened) and bank tightening credit due to worries on prop (happening as we speak).

Put all these things together, and you have recipe for a bubble burst.

So which of these 4 things are completely not happening in your opinion?
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The 4 things are happening and we have recipe for bubble burst ? But.....but.....but.....where is the bubble burst ? Tak rasa pun ?

Any target has no value if there is no timeline. I have said it won't burst if the world economy has no drastic changes. I have said it won't burst in 2013. If it burst in 2013, then I am damn wrong notworthy.gif

Can you state a date so I have a more meaningful perspective of your opinion ?
katijar
post Jun 5 2013, 11:28 AM

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Yup this is never a good thing but this will most likely happen

--------------

i am sorry? so what will happen at the end ... ?
joeblows
post Jun 5 2013, 11:50 AM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Jun 5 2013, 11:25 AM)
The 4 things are happening and we have recipe for bubble burst ? But.....but.....but.....where is the bubble burst ? Tak rasa pun ?

Any target has no value if there is no timeline. I have said it won't burst if the world economy has no drastic changes. I have said it won't burst in 2013. If it burst in 2013, then I am damn wrong  notworthy.gif

Can you state a date so I have a more meaningful perspective of your opinion ?
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Don't act foolish. If one can set a firm date for this, I can time the market and be a gazillionaire. Forget Malaysian market, may as well time NYSE.

Some believe the bubble is already close to bursting, if not burst already.

US Property Bubble Burst Timeline

QUOTE
2005: United States housing market correction ("bubble bursting").
February: The Office of Thrift Supervision implemented new rules that allowed savings and loans with over $1 billion in assets to meet their CRA obligations without investing in local communities, cutting availability of subprime loans.
September: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Reserve, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency allow loosening of Community Reinvestment Act requirements for "small" banks, further cutting subprime loans.[17][40]
Fall: Booming housing market halts abruptly; from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2006, median prices nationwide dropped off 3.3 percent.[41]
Year-end: A total of 846,982 properties were in some stage of foreclosure in 2005.[42]
2006: Continued market slowdown. Prices are flat, home sales fall, resulting in inventory buildup. U.S. Home Construction Index is down over 40% as of mid-August 2006 compared to a year earlier. A total of 1,259,118 foreclosures were filed during the year, up 42 percent from 2005.[43]


Look at the bolded part?

1) High foreclosures. What's all those lelong signs on our traffic lights tell you?

2) Market slowdown but flat prices for more than 1 year. Whats happening to our market now?
pobox
post Jun 5 2013, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(katijar @ Jun 5 2013, 11:28 AM)
Yup this is never a good thing but this will most likely happen

--------------

i am sorry? so what will happen at the end ... ?
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Wealth Redistribution. Survival of the fittest.
prody
post Jun 5 2013, 11:59 AM

Dance while the record spins
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QUOTE(AMINT @ Jun 5 2013, 11:03 AM)
I am talking about monthly basis bro. This is the updated one. Keep rising
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It's possible that cheaper landed in outskirts still can increase a bit.

Investors like to buy two instead of one I suppose. smile.gif

More expensive landed doesn't seem to be moving.
SUSsylar111
post Jun 5 2013, 12:11 PM

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If house price drop. Own Stay also will cry. You had the opportunity to make some money and you blew it just because of "Own stay"
prody
post Jun 5 2013, 12:45 PM

Dance while the record spins
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QUOTE(sylar111 @ Jun 5 2013, 12:11 PM)
If house price drop. Own Stay also will cry. You had the opportunity to make some money and you blew it just because of "Own stay"
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I'm own stay and would not cry.

Trying to sell my house but nobody even wants to come view at these crazy prices.
SUStikaram
post Jun 5 2013, 01:08 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Jun 5 2013, 01:45 PM)
I'm own stay and would not cry.

Trying to sell my house but nobody even wants to come view at these crazy prices.
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u already said crazy price.... lower down abit la.... sure got people view one....

can also pm me? I might able to help your buyer get valuation high price...FOC one. smile.gif
prody
post Jun 5 2013, 01:34 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Jun 5 2013, 01:08 PM)
u already said crazy price.... lower down abit la.... sure got people view one....

can also pm me? I might able to help your buyer get valuation high price...FOC one.  smile.gif
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Must sell at crazy price now, since next plan would be to rent for a while.
I'll only sell at normal price once my target houses also drop to normal price.

The problem is there are no buyers. smile.gif
EddyLB
post Jun 5 2013, 01:49 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Jun 5 2013, 11:50 AM)
Don't act foolish. If one can set a firm date for this, I can time the market and be a gazillionaire. Forget Malaysian market, may as well time NYSE.

Some believe the bubble is already close to bursting, if not burst already.


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Foolish ? I for one is setting a firm date. And I say it again. MARKET WILL NOT CRASH IN 2013

I wonder why you don't dare to set a date. No confident about what you said yourself ? laugh.gif

Again, "I am right until proven wrong", and "you are wrong until proven right". If you don't give a date, 1 day you sure will be right. But when ? Until then, what you said are just rubbish

That's the difference between the DDD and BBB camp.... yawn.gif
AMINT
post Jun 5 2013, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Jun 5 2013, 01:34 PM)
Must sell at crazy price now, since next plan would be to rent for a while.
I'll only sell at normal price once my target houses also drop to normal price.

The problem is there are no buyers. smile.gif
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My normal principle: buy around rm400-600k. Anything i.buy above that i would expect a slow sale but bigger margin.
joeblows
post Jun 5 2013, 02:08 PM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Jun 5 2013, 01:49 PM)
Foolish ? I for one is setting a firm date. And I say it again. MARKET WILL NOT CRASH IN 2013

I wonder why you don't dare to set a date. No confident about what you said yourself ?  laugh.gif

Again, "I am right until proven wrong", and "you are wrong until proven right". If you don't give a date, 1 day you sure will be right. But when ? Until then, what you said are just rubbish

That's the difference between the DDD and BBB camp.... yawn.gif
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Wow, this is so-called "firm date"? LOL! laugh.gif

Even if market again slips 3-5% on average you can claim it didn't "crash" just a "small blip".

Come I set a firm date. And I say it again. MARKET WILL NOT SOAR IN 2013.

Come I dare to make a bolder prediction. MARKET WILL NOT SOAR IN 2013-2017 LIKE 2007-2011.

You will be lucky to get low single digit appreciation in 2013, most probably will get a depreciation - maybe slight, maybe large.
EddyLB
post Jun 5 2013, 02:21 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Jun 5 2013, 02:08 PM)
Wow, this is so-called "firm date"? LOL!  laugh.gif

Even if market again slips 3-5% on average you can claim it didn't "crash" just a "small blip".

Come I set a firm date. And I say it again. MARKET WILL NOT SOAR IN 2013.

Come I dare to make a bolder prediction. MARKET WILL NOT SOAR IN 2013-2017 LIKE 2007-2011.

You will be lucky to get low single digit appreciation in 2013, most probably will get a depreciation - maybe slight, maybe large.
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So, still don't dare to set a date for MARKET CRASH ?
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