One thing's for sure. If contract awarded to Crony, then costs will be koyak and ticket price double..unless Gomen subsidize with our money.

Since the train is going to another country, there will be customs, security and immigration checks. As for checking in, even Air Asia has resorted to checking in from your PC. If you have luggages, the same challenges applies to trains. Will the train ask passengers to be at the waiting room early before boarding? I am pretty sure they would.

When you get off at Singapore, there will also be customs, security and immigration checks.

Lastly, its not really door to door as the article mentioned. You still need to travel to the station. And since they are not going to be stops in between, people in Kajang, Putrajaya, etc need to travel to Sentral train station (assuming its built there).

The London Paris high speed train partly works because you can travel througout Europe without going thru customs, immigrations (I am referring to EU citizens, non EU still need checks).
High speed trains crossing international borders suffer more or less the same process as air travel.
Anybody care to comment?

As usual, election feel good talk to entice people to vote for current gomen since it will likely depend on them to be in power for this to materialize.

My opinion:

The HSR project is meant to connect "heart of city" to "heart of another city".

The HSR project means we would welcome more Singaporeans. A RM150 ticket is too cheap for them, mana boleh?

The HSR project means more WORKING FOREIGNER in Singapore can opt to stay in KL. More business will also flow to KL as we directly created a "tunnel" link between our two cities. More business particularly means the support work especially for financials, i.e. KL is already doing tonnes of work that the 5,000-Citigroup workforce in Raffles Place/Shenton Way cannot do.

It will also narrow the gap between trends in Singapore and trends in KL, as we in KL suddenly become a "neighboring/suburb" metropolis to Singapore.

Based on the Taiwan HSR and considering our exchange and construction cost is within RM8 billion, I expect ticket to be around RM250-RM300.

Due to the heavy lobby, I believe there'll definitely be a STATION in Melaka/Malacca and perhaps many more.



This post has been edited by accetera: Feb 19 2013, 11:43 PM

How much it should cost to commute?
It is close to what I have in mind. The unique proposition for this project is that it is the fastest way to go to Singapore. It will probably take 2 hours 15 minutes in total (travel time: 90 minutes, passport check: 30 minutes, taxi: 15 minutes) which is faster than by air (estimated total of 3 hours). As such, as a planner, I would have the flexibility to charge it almost similar, if not slightly more expensive than to that of airfare, but still make it as an attractive mode of transport.

Taking KLIA Ekspress as an example, the cost to travel with its high speed rail is RM0.61 per km:
Distance from KL Sentral to KLIA: 57km
Cost per trip: RM35
By using this cost and estimating the distance between KL to Singapore to be as 350km, a round trip (700km) would cost me around RM430. (However, do take not that this is probably not a good comparison as the technology and cost between the two rail systems are different.)

I did a quick check on what it would cost me to travel between KL and Singapore (date chosen is next week 26/2) by air:
Airasia (Roundtrip): RM139
MAS (Economy, Roundtrip): RM564

As a planner I would have a headache. I can't compete with Airasia on pricing but probably not a problem with MAS.

As for the train, it would cost me RM217 (KL-Singapore RM62, Singapore-KL SGD62). But then it take up to a good 7 hours for each trip, which is not what a high-speed rail competing with.

By car, it would cost me around RM100 (RM50 * 2) for toll while fuel would probably cost me RM200 (ESTIMATE only). That's total up to RM300.

In the end, I would price it between RM350 - RM400 to make it competitive and attractive. And here comes the commercial challenge.

Commercial Risk
The construction cost varies between different parties from a low of RM8bil to a high of RM30 bil. By taking an estimate of RM20bil for the total cost, how much money the high-speed rail need to generate annually to make it a profitable business proposition?

Assuming we price it at RM400 for round trip and attempted to get 3,000 daily passenger, our return would be:
Revenue = RM400 * 3,000 * 365 = RM438 mil.

Will you be satisfied with a 2.19% return per annum?

Political Risk
With subsidies and budget deficit, Najib is putting his head on the chopping board with this plan. If he is not able to secure 2/3 majority in the next GE, he might as well scrap this unprofitable plan.


Note: My assumptions above could be wrong but hopefully this could serve as a beginning of interesting discussions.

Five tycoon-related have expressed interest in this project. (Cost most likely overblown from previous YTL plan as this time is different)

I think we can save some money if we can align with KTM route as we don't need much land acquisition.

As for AirAsia, their bigger worry should be Malindo Air, and not this HSR. Malaysia Airlines? Well they better focus on Oneworld alliance by bringing more better quality foreigners into the country (they will begin code-sharing with American Airlines on 1 March - a chance to increase American tourists)


(feel that this thread should encourage technical discussions here as well for those in the know how such as @Kampung)

Wah good discussion. Hehe. I have almost the same calculation as u and considering what i have seen in other more developed countries, that is the price that i think that they would charge.

I agree on the RM300 ticket.... but you need to factor in the expected volume as well. Volume factor changes the fee structure.

The fact is KL-Singapore vice versa has a huge traffic flow. Then we need to narrow down to the sampled volume that is expected to use this HSR service.

hehehe really interesting!

How about 5 people by car? RM300 divided by 5?

Would you invest Iskandar or JB rather then KL?

I think small town like Gemas, Kluang, Sermeban is better.

Buy land if you can.

This post has been edited by balakong: Feb 20 2013, 08:04 AM

yes,

najid did mention.

If I am the PM. The project will continue la.

If I am not the PM. I don't know.

I think the border control will be like those if you travel from switzeland to Austria.... the immigration will stamp on your travel document while the train is moving. So you don't need to get down from the train on section from JB to Singapore.

It could be door to door for those staying near train station and working at train station.



This post has been edited by balakong: Feb 20 2013, 08:11 AM

If Im a PM 10 years ago, now Malaysia already have bullet train across whole region.... Not only Singapore to Malaysia but a link from Singapore - KL - Penang - Hatyai - Bangkok - ..... Until to China.

Also, I think the govt is usually protective of MAS. The KL Singapore sector is a money making sector. They might mitigate this by giving MAS a stake in the HSR project.

i started this topic http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2703358 last few days... and yesterday announce to hv speed train between kl-sg... see, i told u i see the future... but most of u not agree with me... by 2020 people can live in melaka, seremban n work in kl.. substation for speed train is every where...

*any admin can move back my topic to this forum?..

Ohhh... u can see the future? Then mind to share where is the terminal station will be? :-)

the topic is about HSR to shorten the distance btw places, it will be an alternative for flight n snail pace train,, ppl already mention about it for quite some time ago,,

HSR can promote tourism n commercial vibrancy which will bring good benefit to this area,, indirectly boosting up surrounding area as a result of business travelers, tourist, n attract workforce to work here n travel via HSR back to hometown probably on a weekly or monthly basis,,

your topic was about living some 150km away n travel via HSR everyday which i had mention in your topic, even advance country like japan, its uncommon for them to do so,, travel via HSR can take up half of the salary of an average worker,,, read those post that we had reply,,,

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Feb 20 2013, 09:54 AM

hmmm... no need to be so sarcastic... for sure all state will hv substation, many will be benefit from it.. malaysian minded like to say NO / NO NEED.... but when its there, "owh, this infra or facility is good, really helpful"... easy example Putrajaya... when previous prime minister build it up, majority of malaysian said its a such a big waste, we no need... now all like crazy want to control it.. its truly malaysian..