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 High Speed Rail Link Singapore Malaysia

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AMINT
post Feb 19 2013, 07:59 PM

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Would u take it if the price is rm350 per way?
AMINT
post Feb 19 2013, 11:16 PM

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QUOTE(tigana @ Feb 19 2013, 11:05 PM)
It has to be competitive with respect to Airplanes.
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If it is faster to reach destination, certain people in certain countries would rather take bullet trains that airplanes coz it is faster. Airplanes are slow coz need to check in etc.
AMINT
post Feb 19 2013, 11:19 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Feb 19 2013, 11:17 PM)
Single ok, whole family tak boleh lo
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If whole family, mati woo. tongue.gif
AMINT
post Feb 20 2013, 12:13 AM

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Wah good discussion. Hehe. I have almost the same calculation as u and considering what i have seen in other more developed countries, that is the price that i think that they would charge.
QUOTE(newx @ Feb 19 2013, 11:59 PM)
How much it should cost to commute?
It is close to what I have in mind. The unique proposition for this project is that it is the fastest way to go to Singapore. It will probably take 2 hours 15 minutes in total (travel time: 90 minutes, passport check: 30 minutes, taxi: 15 minutes) which is faster than by air (estimated total of 3 hours). As such, as a planner, I would have the flexibility to charge it almost similar, if not slightly more expensive than to that of airfare, but still make it as an attractive mode of transport.

Taking KLIA Ekspress as an example, the cost to travel with its high speed rail is RM0.61 per km:
Distance from KL Sentral to KLIA: 57km
Cost per trip: RM35
By using this cost and estimating the distance between KL to Singapore to be as 350km, a round trip (700km) would cost me around RM430. (However, do take not that this is probably not a good comparison as the technology and cost between the two rail systems are different.)

I did a quick check on what it would cost me to travel between KL and Singapore (date chosen is next week 26/2) by air:
Airasia (Roundtrip): RM139
MAS (Economy, Roundtrip): RM564

As a planner I would have a headache. I can't compete with Airasia on pricing but probably not a problem with MAS.

As for the train, it would cost me RM217 (KL-Singapore RM62, Singapore-KL SGD62). But then it take up to a good 7 hours for each trip, which is not what a high-speed rail competing with.

By car, it would cost me around RM100 (RM50 * 2) for toll while fuel would probably cost me RM200 (ESTIMATE only). That's total up to RM300.

In the end, I would price it between RM350 - RM400 to make it competitive and attractive. And here comes the commercial challenge.

Commercial Risk
The construction cost varies between different parties from a low of RM8bil to a high of RM30 bil. By taking an estimate of RM20bil for the total cost, how much money the high-speed rail need to generate annually to make it a profitable business proposition?

Assuming we price it at RM400 for round trip and attempted to get 3,000 daily passenger, our return would be:
Revenue = RM400 * 3,000 * 365 = RM438 mil.

Will you be satisfied with a 2.19% return per annum?

Political Risk
With subsidies and budget deficit, Najib is putting his head on the chopping board with this plan. If he is not able to secure 2/3 majority in the next GE, he might as well scrap this unprofitable plan.
Note: My assumptions above could be wrong but hopefully this could serve as a beginning of interesting discussions.
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AMINT
post Feb 20 2013, 04:21 PM

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QUOTE(Cocoon @ Feb 20 2013, 04:09 PM)
Anyone got an idea on the proposed station in kl?
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This one I think = KL Sentral.
AMINT
post Feb 20 2013, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Feb 20 2013, 12:28 PM)
Singapore gomen has realized that if the country need to survive for another 100 years, with the scarcity land getting crucial, they must act now, high speed train is indeed benefit Singapore more
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If you ask me, the high speed train will indeed benefit singaporeans more than malaysians. but hey it is still benefiting malaysians so thats fine. smile.gif
AMINT
post Feb 20 2013, 04:24 PM

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QUOTE(cockee @ Feb 20 2013, 01:34 PM)
Actually, this project is good.
But to straight forward link this project to increase in property value is too simplistic.

First of all, there are quite some post already on the potential ticket price, so i wont talk on that.
Let's says it's about RM250 per trip.

So if you stay in KL and work in SG, you will spend RM500 per day to travel to and from work. I repeat.. RM500 per day. Think about it.
You are earning SG, so you will be paying about SG200 PER DAY to travel. If you work averagely 20 days a month, that would work out to SG4000 per month on travelling alone. This is only the financial cost, not including the time cost incurred for immigration checks, queuing, travel to station etc.

With SG4000 per month, you can rent a bloody comfortable place in SG already lar! Even can get spare changes! Hahahaha!
So will anyone with any financial sense do that?

Therefore, why how would this help KL property prices? If you say Segamat, Muar maybe still can make a bit sense lor..

Optimism is fine, but not the blind type!
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+1 hahaha. yup.
AMINT
post Feb 20 2013, 04:32 PM

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Another possible area = Tun Razak Exchange.
AMINT
post Feb 20 2013, 05:31 PM

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Interstate highspeed makes more sense to me for Malaysians than the KL-SG one
AMINT
post Feb 20 2013, 05:36 PM

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QUOTE(abgkik @ Feb 20 2013, 05:34 PM)
Politician.. always like to twist.. how about built stop at KL-Seremban-Melaka-JB-SG.. interstate rail or not?
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hahahaha. rclxms.gif
AMINT
post Feb 20 2013, 08:17 PM

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Bro, correct me if i am wrong but many japanese use bullet train to work. Some of them even commute daily via airplane from osaka to tokyo. I went to japan when i was small. From kl to osaka was a small plane but from osaka to tokyo was a jumbo plane. Funny thing was that only my family and 2-3 other families were wearing normal clothes but others were wearing business suits ( to work). It was also the same case from tokyo to osaka.. Well japan is a weird country and maybe shouldnt be compared to us. Wanna dispose 3 years old functional TV also need to pay people to collect.
QUOTE(twincharger07 @ Feb 20 2013, 08:11 PM)
the issue here is not about time n distance, is about fare n travelling cost,, how many can afford to travel between kl ipoh everyday?

if talking about scale of economy, lets look at japan which has the world most advance n highest public transport usage in the world, to japanese themselves, shinkansen is expensive.. 150km cost 2500yen, 2 way cost 5000yen which is about rm170 to rm200 depends on currency conversion,, a fresh grad pay in japan is bout 200,000yen, using shinkansen already 100,000yen permonth, not including expences for other transport as train dun stop infront of your house,, it is uncommon for japanese to travel tat far daily despite they have long history on shinkansen,, their shinkansen hit 160km/h in 1957 when tunku declare merdeka here,, they r tat advance,,

having working in over seas around asia continent for last few years n taking bullet trains for business trip, the fare of bullet train in these countries are not cheap by their standard of living,, china dong che zhu, taiwan gao tie, japan shinkansen

1 thing in common, bullet train in these countries are use more for business trip, tourism, balik kampung during weekends or festive,,, it is uncommon to use for commuting between house n workplace everyday
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This post has been edited by AMINT: Feb 20 2013, 08:20 PM
AMINT
post Feb 23 2013, 11:04 PM

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even though i think it is good for the country and investors, this may cause property price to surge.bad news for us who want to buy more

This post has been edited by AMINT: Feb 23 2013, 11:05 PM
AMINT
post Feb 24 2013, 09:10 AM

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QUOTE(Llchieng @ Feb 24 2013, 12:33 AM)
Property price up up up =refinance to buy more.
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Only will work if refinance could cover the price of new props.
AMINT
post Feb 24 2013, 07:43 PM

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QUOTE(zonefinder @ Feb 24 2013, 07:33 PM)
Being an eternal optimist I am, I see 2 sides to the equation. On the one hand, property and asset values will surge while on other hand, investments  and growth will help create higher value jobs and reduce problems associated with the Middle Income Trap which we are suffering from. No doubt there are other critical issues ie corruption, brain drain etc but its a major step in the right direction.
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What kind of timeframe for this to happen? 5 years or 10 years or more?
AMINT
post Feb 25 2013, 02:27 AM

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QUOTE(zonefinder @ Feb 24 2013, 09:30 PM)
In terms of property getting another fillip, its already happening in Iskandar. Its the other side of the equation that's going to take some time. Not going to happen overnight. Getting these big projects moving is a start. Changing govt policies, mind-sets and ridding corruption so as to retain and attract talents will take a lot more commitment...probably changes. For our folks to start enjoying better paid jobs and economy moving up the value chain will take at least 5 -10 years, possibly more. blush.gif
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I dont know about you but I am having mixed feelings about this:

1) My current props may surge
2) I cant afford to buy good props after that

The fact is this. Yeah, singaporeans may not buy to stay. But they will buy for investments. This i am pretty sure. Coz some of the props I targeted were snatched by singaporeans and those arent KV props. What do u think will happen after this? I think more negative impact for us, poorer malaysians compared to them.

So the solution? Either our income slowly increase to match their income or we have to work outside of malaysia. Both situations may trigger other consequences in related industries.

Fresh grads, say byebye to good props. huhuhu.
AMINT
post Feb 25 2013, 12:10 PM

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QUOTE(leeboy @ Feb 25 2013, 08:48 AM)
But bear in mind that sg buyers can only buy props that are rm500k and above. So poorer msians are not affected. Msians who can afford rm500k above condo should not be considered as poor.
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Now sub RM500K are the minorities. Mostly RM500K and above. Even PR1MA also targeted just slightly below RM500K for landed
AMINT
post Feb 25 2013, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(zonefinder @ Feb 25 2013, 11:18 AM)
Certainly not going to be a one step action where everything rights itself in one go. It will be a process over an extended period. The first stage is the connectivity infrastructure. This will bring in foreign investments as well as reverse slightly domestic ones which previously were going offshore. Next stage will be more uncertain as it will involved changes in mindset, rejection of religious extremism, tukar govt policies ( ie NEP etc)..and eliminate corruption. Brain drain and a lot of our local/domestic money ( big tycoons esp the non bumi ones prefer investing overseas due to lack of transparency and current govt policies) are predicated on the latter whether we agree or not. Again the key point here is to eliminate the Middle Income Trap which is the consequence of all the stuff which I mentioned earlier.
Investors like us where we have already built a base ie we have properties in hand, will welcome the surge due to these mega projects over the next 5-10years. Beyond that only God knows...
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lets wait and see how it goes.
AMINT
post Mar 2 2013, 01:18 AM

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If BN wins = TRX or Sungei Besi Airport location. If PR wins = only God knows where
AMINT
post Mar 5 2013, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(xyyap @ Mar 2 2013, 07:47 PM)
KLIA, LCCT, TBS will hit! Super high chance...
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KLIA is a sure hit!. It makes 100% sense there. so which area of prospect should we go for? Bandar Enstek, right? That is the nearest? How about Kota Seriemas?
AMINT
post Mar 5 2013, 12:06 PM

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QUOTE(ecin @ Mar 5 2013, 11:54 AM)
So many issues recently, don't know when the LRT construction works in Selangor can be completed before this proj, just make it runs first in KL, simple
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When this one gonna settle? After GE?

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