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 High Speed Rail Link Singapore Malaysia

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SUStat3179
post Feb 20 2013, 10:02 AM

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QUOTE(ost1007 @ Feb 19 2013, 06:06 PM)
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/highlights/...-rail-link.html

Will it be another "turbo" to hike property price in KL?
mad.gif
*
Aiyah, how to turbo.

If it even happens it is 7 years from now.


SUStat3179
post Feb 20 2013, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(tigana @ Feb 19 2013, 11:31 PM)
Since the train is going to another country, there will be customs, security and immigration checks. As for checking in, even Air Asia has resorted to checking in from your PC. If you have luggages, the same challenges applies to trains. Will the train ask passengers to be at the waiting room early before boarding? I am pretty sure they would.

When you get off at Singapore, there will also be customs, security and immigration checks.

Lastly, its not really door to door as the article mentioned. You still need to travel to the station. And since they are not going to be stops in between, people in Kajang, Putrajaya, etc need to travel to Sentral train station (assuming its built there).

The London Paris high speed train partly works because you can travel througout Europe without going thru customs, immigrations (I am referring to EU citizens, non EU still need checks).
High speed trains crossing international borders suffer more or less the same process as air travel.
Anybody care to comment?
*
There are ways around it.

Passport control could be circumvented with bio-metric control for frequent travellers that uses the lines.

Baggage checks could be done quickly with right system in place to move people from the station to that country.

If implemented correctly, travel by rail is far more convenient than air travel.
TSost1007
post Feb 20 2013, 11:37 AM

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KL property with current 400-500 per sqf to hit 1000 per sqf iin 7 years no longer a dream anymore.

This post has been edited by ost1007: Feb 20 2013, 11:38 AM
joeblows
post Feb 20 2013, 11:41 AM

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QUOTE(newx @ Feb 19 2013, 11:59 PM)
How much it should cost to commute?
It is close to what I have in mind. The unique proposition for this project is that it is the fastest way to go to Singapore. It will probably take 2 hours 15 minutes in total (travel time: 90 minutes, passport check: 30 minutes, taxi: 15 minutes) which is faster than by air (estimated total of 3 hours). As such, as a planner, I would have the flexibility to charge it almost similar, if not slightly more expensive than to that of airfare, but still make it as an attractive mode of transport.

Taking KLIA Ekspress as an example, the cost to travel with its high speed rail is RM0.61 per km:
Distance from KL Sentral to KLIA: 57km
Cost per trip: RM35
By using this cost and estimating the distance between KL to Singapore to be as 350km, a round trip (700km) would cost me around RM430. (However, do take not that this is probably not a good comparison as the technology and cost between the two rail systems are different.)

I did a quick check on what it would cost me to travel between KL and Singapore (date chosen is next week 26/2) by air:
Airasia (Roundtrip): RM139
MAS (Economy, Roundtrip): RM564

As a planner I would have a headache. I can't compete with Airasia on pricing but probably not a problem with MAS.

As for the train, it would cost me RM217 (KL-Singapore RM62, Singapore-KL SGD62). But then it take up to a good 7 hours for each trip, which is not what a high-speed rail competing with.

By car, it would cost me around RM100 (RM50 * 2) for toll while fuel would probably cost me RM200 (ESTIMATE only). That's total up to RM300.

In the end, I would price it between RM350 - RM400 to make it competitive and attractive. And here comes the commercial challenge.

Commercial Risk
The construction cost varies between different parties from a low of RM8bil to a high of RM30 bil. By taking an estimate of RM20bil for the total cost, how much money the high-speed rail need to generate annually to make it a profitable business proposition?

Assuming we price it at RM400 for round trip and attempted to get 3,000 daily passenger, our return would be:
Revenue = RM400 * 3,000 * 365 = RM438 mil.

Will you be satisfied with a 2.19% return per annum?

Political Risk
With subsidies and budget deficit, Najib is putting his head on the chopping board with this plan. If he is not able to secure 2/3 majority in the next GE, he might as well scrap this unprofitable plan.
Note: My assumptions above could be wrong but hopefully this could serve as a beginning of interesting discussions.
*
Pretty decent estimation.

Then you have the question of at RM400 per roundtrip, how much demand would you have considering you can fly all in on Airasia for half the price and MAS for slightly more?

How many passengers do the airlines take per day? Estimate a generous 30 total flights to SGP from KL on a daily basis, 200 passengers on each flight, means 6,000 daily travellers SG - KL. The total passengers could even be fewer considering we are estimating a packed flight each time but let's be generous to account for growth in passenger travel.

Thus your high-speed rail is attempting to net 50% of the total market straight off the bat just to get a 2.19% return per anum, and this is an optimistic assumption. If your calculations are overly optimistic and more passengers prefer to take the cheaper Airasia, then your ROI would be even lower, 1% or -ve territory depending on how much you borrowed from the bank!

Is this feasible? Not while Malaysian salaries are so low is my 2c.

By the way a good comparison is ERL with the Skybus to travel KL Sentral to KLIA which from reports has been losing money despite being faster and more efficient. Malaysians being low income would prefer to save RM20 (one way ticket RM30 vs RM9 via bus) or take a taxi rather than sit the train. Basically, if you are poor, you take the cheapest option possible, efficiency be damned. If you can afford it, why wouldn't you drive or fly MAS...

This post has been edited by joeblows: Feb 20 2013, 11:48 AM
SUSbalakong
post Feb 20 2013, 12:04 PM

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QUOTE(newx @ Feb 19 2013, 11:59 PM)
How much it should cost to commute?
It is close to what I have in mind. The unique proposition for this project is that it is the fastest way to go to Singapore. It will probably take 2 hours 15 minutes in total (travel time: 90 minutes, passport check: 30 minutes, taxi: 15 minutes) which is faster than by air (estimated total of 3 hours). As such, as a planner, I would have the flexibility to charge it almost similar, if not slightly more expensive than to that of airfare, but still make it as an attractive mode of transport.

Taking KLIA Ekspress as an example, the cost to travel with its high speed rail is RM0.61 per km:
Distance from KL Sentral to KLIA: 57km
Cost per trip: RM35
By using this cost and estimating the distance between KL to Singapore to be as 350km, a round trip (700km) would cost me around RM430. (However, do take not that this is probably not a good comparison as the technology and cost between the two rail systems are different.)

I did a quick check on what it would cost me to travel between KL and Singapore (date chosen is next week 26/2) by air:
Airasia (Roundtrip): RM139
MAS (Economy, Roundtrip): RM564

As a planner I would have a headache. I can't compete with Airasia on pricing but probably not a problem with MAS.

As for the train, it would cost me RM217 (KL-Singapore RM62, Singapore-KL SGD62). But then it take up to a good 7 hours for each trip, which is not what a high-speed rail competing with.

By car, it would cost me around RM100 (RM50 * 2) for toll while fuel would probably cost me RM200 (ESTIMATE only). That's total up to RM300.

In the end, I would price it between RM350 - RM400 to make it competitive and attractive. And here comes the commercial challenge.

Commercial Risk
The construction cost varies between different parties from a low of RM8bil to a high of RM30 bil. By taking an estimate of RM20bil for the total cost, how much money the high-speed rail need to generate annually to make it a profitable business proposition?

Assuming we price it at RM400 for round trip and attempted to get 3,000 daily passenger, our return would be:
Revenue = RM400 * 3,000 * 365 = RM438 mil.

Will you be satisfied with a 2.19% return per annum?

Political Risk
With subsidies and budget deficit, Najib is putting his head on the chopping board with this plan. If he is not able to secure 2/3 majority in the next GE, he might as well scrap this unprofitable plan.
Note: My assumptions above could be wrong but hopefully this could serve as a beginning of interesting discussions.
*
1)maybe lots of demand from visitors, business travel ...sap sap soi la fees 400 for visitor/ business travel
2)improve the poluttion ( air teval is high in co2)
3)Improve economy like those small town, melaka etc
4)Job creation, money spend and potential egen greater if in later link to bangkok/ Biejin.

This post has been edited by balakong: Feb 20 2013, 12:05 PM
SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 20 2013, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(balakong @ Feb 20 2013, 12:04 PM)
1)maybe lots of demand from visitors, business travel ...sap sap soi la fees 400 for visitor/ business travel
2)improve the poluttion ( air teval is high in co2)
3)Improve economy like those small town, melaka etc
4)Job creation, money spend and potential egen greater if in later link to bangkok/ Biejin.
*
Singapore gomen has realized that if the country need to survive for another 100 years, with the scarcity land getting crucial, they must act now, high speed train is indeed benefit Singapore more
Lcsx
post Feb 20 2013, 12:36 PM

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QUOTE(newx @ Feb 19 2013, 11:59 PM)
How much it should cost to commute?
It is close to what I have in mind. The unique proposition for this project is that it is the fastest way to go to Singapore. It will probably take 2 hours 15 minutes in total (travel time: 90 minutes, passport check: 30 minutes, taxi: 15 minutes) which is faster than by air (estimated total of 3 hours). As such, as a planner, I would have the flexibility to charge it almost similar, if not slightly more expensive than to that of airfare, but still make it as an attractive mode of transport.

Taking KLIA Ekspress as an example, the cost to travel with its high speed rail is RM0.61 per km:
Distance from KL Sentral to KLIA: 57km
Cost per trip: RM35
By using this cost and estimating the distance between KL to Singapore to be as 350km, a round trip (700km) would cost me around RM430. (However, do take not that this is probably not a good comparison as the technology and cost between the two rail systems are different.)

I did a quick check on what it would cost me to travel between KL and Singapore (date chosen is next week 26/2) by air:
Airasia (Roundtrip): RM139
MAS (Economy, Roundtrip): RM564

As a planner I would have a headache. I can't compete with Airasia on pricing but probably not a problem with MAS.

As for the train, it would cost me RM217 (KL-Singapore RM62, Singapore-KL SGD62). But then it take up to a good 7 hours for each trip, which is not what a high-speed rail competing with.

By car, it would cost me around RM100 (RM50 * 2) for toll while fuel would probably cost me RM200 (ESTIMATE only). That's total up to RM300.

In the end, I would price it between RM350 - RM400 to make it competitive and attractive. And here comes the commercial challenge.

Commercial Risk
The construction cost varies between different parties from a low of RM8bil to a high of RM30 bil. By taking an estimate of RM20bil for the total cost, how much money the high-speed rail need to generate annually to make it a profitable business proposition?

Assuming we price it at RM400 for round trip and attempted to get 3,000 daily passenger, our return would be:
Revenue = RM400 * 3,000 * 365 = RM438 mil.

Will you be satisfied with a 2.19% return per annum?

Political Risk
With subsidies and budget deficit, Najib is putting his head on the chopping board with this plan. If he is not able to secure 2/3 majority in the next GE, he might as well scrap this unprofitable plan.
Note: My assumptions above could be wrong but hopefully this could serve as a beginning of interesting discussions.
*
Very simple. Change government. With less corruption the rail can be done at RM8bil with a return of 5.5% per annum based on your assumptions. thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by Lcsx: Feb 20 2013, 12:42 PM
ecin
post Feb 20 2013, 12:55 PM

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QUOTE(Dark Adam @ Feb 20 2013, 09:35 AM)
i started this topic http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2703358 last few days... and yesterday announce to hv speed train between kl-sg... see, i told u i see the future... but most of u not agree with me... by 2020 people can live in melaka, seremban n work  in kl.. substation for speed train is every where...

*any admin can move back my topic to this forum?..
*
quick sapu then and pray
cockee
post Feb 20 2013, 01:34 PM

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Actually, this project is good.
But to straight forward link this project to increase in property value is too simplistic.

First of all, there are quite some post already on the potential ticket price, so i wont talk on that.
Let's says it's about RM250 per trip.

So if you stay in KL and work in SG, you will spend RM500 per day to travel to and from work. I repeat.. RM500 per day. Think about it.
You are earning SG, so you will be paying about SG200 PER DAY to travel. If you work averagely 20 days a month, that would work out to SG4000 per month on travelling alone. This is only the financial cost, not including the time cost incurred for immigration checks, queuing, travel to station etc.

With SG4000 per month, you can rent a bloody comfortable place in SG already lar! Even can get spare changes! Hahahaha!
So will anyone with any financial sense do that?

Therefore, why how would this help KL property prices? If you say Segamat, Muar maybe still can make a bit sense lor..

Optimism is fine, but not the blind type!
mydrm12345
post Feb 20 2013, 02:29 PM

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It is very helpful fpr business trip and weekend vacation la.
Cocoon
post Feb 20 2013, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(mydrm12345 @ Feb 20 2013, 02:29 PM)
It is very helpful fpr business trip and weekend vacation la.
*
Anyone got an idea on the proposed station in kl?
AMINT
post Feb 20 2013, 04:21 PM

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QUOTE(Cocoon @ Feb 20 2013, 04:09 PM)
Anyone got an idea on the proposed station in kl?
*
This one I think = KL Sentral.
AMINT
post Feb 20 2013, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Feb 20 2013, 12:28 PM)
Singapore gomen has realized that if the country need to survive for another 100 years, with the scarcity land getting crucial, they must act now, high speed train is indeed benefit Singapore more
*
If you ask me, the high speed train will indeed benefit singaporeans more than malaysians. but hey it is still benefiting malaysians so thats fine. smile.gif
AMINT
post Feb 20 2013, 04:24 PM

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QUOTE(cockee @ Feb 20 2013, 01:34 PM)
Actually, this project is good.
But to straight forward link this project to increase in property value is too simplistic.

First of all, there are quite some post already on the potential ticket price, so i wont talk on that.
Let's says it's about RM250 per trip.

So if you stay in KL and work in SG, you will spend RM500 per day to travel to and from work. I repeat.. RM500 per day. Think about it.
You are earning SG, so you will be paying about SG200 PER DAY to travel. If you work averagely 20 days a month, that would work out to SG4000 per month on travelling alone. This is only the financial cost, not including the time cost incurred for immigration checks, queuing, travel to station etc.

With SG4000 per month, you can rent a bloody comfortable place in SG already lar! Even can get spare changes! Hahahaha!
So will anyone with any financial sense do that?

Therefore, why how would this help KL property prices? If you say Segamat, Muar maybe still can make a bit sense lor..

Optimism is fine, but not the blind type!
*
+1 hahaha. yup.
SUSbalakong
post Feb 20 2013, 04:26 PM

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QUOTE(Cocoon @ Feb 20 2013, 04:09 PM)
Anyone got an idea on the proposed station in kl?
*
bandar tasik selatan? or Bandar malaysia = Sg besi

This post has been edited by balakong: Feb 20 2013, 04:27 PM
AMINT
post Feb 20 2013, 04:32 PM

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Another possible area = Tun Razak Exchange.
37 Exposures
post Feb 20 2013, 04:38 PM

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Shanghai–Hangzhou High-Speed Train, the line total 202 km, here is the price in RMB

http://hot.dahangzhou.com/top/hzhc/003.htm

This post has been edited by 37 Exposures: Feb 20 2013, 04:40 PM
puchongite
post Feb 20 2013, 04:43 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Feb 20 2013, 12:28 PM)
Singapore gomen has realized that if the country need to survive for another 100 years, with the scarcity land getting crucial, they must act now, high speed train is indeed benefit Singapore more
*
Did they already work out the costs of construction ?

If they split the costs according to geographical, then what Singapore need to pay is peanut compared to Malaysia.

So of course Singapore will node the head and say yes.

I think the politicians are playing games. Not need to get too excited about this. Maybe the next GE, Ah jib kor is no more there, so no need to talk about this project anymore.
puchongite
post Feb 20 2013, 05:02 PM

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Read this post, the PR counters with highspeed interstate rail :-

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...nterstate-rail/

According to PR, high speed interstate is more needed than high speed KL-SG.
bizklguy
post Feb 20 2013, 05:06 PM

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HSR investment has commonly resulted in:
1. reduced travel times;
In general, HSR offers faster net travel times than conventional road, rail and air travel between distances of approximately 150 kilometres (km) and 800 km.

2. reduced congestion on established modes of transport;
E.g., as air travellers move to HSR, short-haul flights are discontinued, increasing runway capacity for longer flights on which air travel maintains a competitive advantage over HSR.

3. improved access to markets and commerce;
Through reduced travel times, HSR reduces the opportunity cost -and commonly the expense of
inter-city commerce and tourism. This increases the reach of small businesses, improves the operational efficiency of larger ones, and enables commuting over longer distances while maintaining quality of life. Stations in underdeveloped communities attract new retail and hospitality investment, while businesses can take advantage of comparatively low property values and easy access to major city centres.This in turn can reduce regional disparities

4. decreased carbon footprint in comparison to road and air transport;
Comparative CO2 emissions between HSR development and the continued use of conventional
transport vary significantly case-by-case, but on a per-passenger, per-kilometre basis, HSR is a distinctly more climate-friendly mode of transport than either road or air travel.

5. ... and creating industry growth and export opportunities.

For more details ==> http://www.invensysrail.com/whitepapers/hs...arch-report.pdf

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