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 Buying Gold As Investment V3 - $1950?, Gold rush brings windfalls and warnings

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Jutawan
post Oct 23 2011, 02:42 PM

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No more oil then economy grow will slow down. The only way is to print $$ to support the economy, to keep politician elected, to keep things going until suddenly everything collapse. As long as they print $, gold will go up. Up to maybe USD5000/oz. in 2014-2015

I don't think so. Care to give more details and support for your justification. cool2.gif
GoldChan
post Oct 23 2011, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(bigwolf @ Oct 23 2011, 11:40 AM)
for the past 6 months UOB KL Main has always been out of gold bullions  laugh.gif
*
last 2 mths lah, not last 6 mths


Added on October 23, 2011, 4:07 pmwell, here are some pointers for those who wanted to know more

http://www.peakoilandhumanity.com/chapter_choice.htm

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

If you are not upset, you don;t understand the problem. In the end, there is only 2 group. Those who believe and those who didn;t.

>There are enough untapped oil for the rest 40-50 years without much problem, just how oil price dictated whether people interested to dig out those >untapped marginal oil field, deep sea one.
a) if this is true, then no 9/11, no iraq war, no libya war, USA won;t bother about IRAN at all.
b) petronas no need to go worldwide looking 4 oil., China will not go worldwide looking 4 oil.
c) China will stop all the coal mining , will not built the biggest hydro and dam all the river.
d) No need to do nucklear in Japan, USA, UK, China. just switch to gas + oil.
e) no need to do tar sand in Canada. as tar sand is
as of now, there is no major oil field found since 2004. peak discovery was in 1967, after Ghawar (saudi arab) no more major oil field bigger than ghawar was found.

current EROEI for deep sea oil is 5:1. That means 5 barrel of oil for one barrel of oil invested in production exclude exploration cost.
Since 1980s, no more new oil refining facilities was developped. if there is oil why not build more refinery.
All major oil companies merged.
Exxon + Mobil. e.g.

The no of oil well drill in USA exceed those in Middle east by a factor of 10x.
nothing can replace oil. period.
Money cannot buy oil in the future.



QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 22 2011, 04:11 PM)
Economy slowdown is not because lack of oil.
Economy slowdown is because people are spending beyond their meant last time, now payback time.
There are enough oil around to support the economy.
We don't face any shortage of oil even during oil peak around USD150.
There are enough untapped oil for the rest 40-50 years without much problem, just how oil price dictated whether people interested to dig out those untapped marginal oil field, deep sea one.

Also,
Economy slowdown is not because lack of money around.
Economy slowdown is because people have no confidence to put the money into work.
Trillions of cash are sitting at sideline, in bank account that yield zero interest.
Even Apple alone has 70+ billion cash reserves, and many other big corporate has significant cash level, even locally, most well run company has ample of cash level generally.

Print money is to push the economy going, but corporate only willing to expand if they have confidence about the future growth.
And confidence cannot be built instantly through money printing.
Money printing inflated price and pushing hard on those idle cash to do something, in theory go to buy asset, investment, or expand the business due to cheap funding, but we have the result, corporate still want to have cash sitting idle due to previous fear of 2008 crisis.
*
This post has been edited by GoldChan: Oct 23 2011, 04:07 PM
bigwolf
post Oct 23 2011, 07:02 PM

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QUOTE(GoldChan @ Oct 23 2011, 03:53 PM)
last 2 mths lah, not last 6 mths


Added on October 23, 2011, 4:07 pmwell, here are some pointers for those who wanted to know more

http://www.peakoilandhumanity.com/chapter_choice.htm

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

If you are not upset, you don;t understand the problem. In the end, there is only 2 group. Those who believe and those who didn;t.

>There are enough untapped oil for the rest 40-50 years without much problem, just how oil price dictated whether people interested to dig out those >untapped marginal oil field, deep sea one.
a) if this is true, then no 9/11, no iraq war, no libya war, USA won;t bother about IRAN at all.
b) petronas no need to go worldwide looking 4 oil., China will not go worldwide looking 4 oil.
c) China will stop all the coal mining , will not built the biggest hydro and dam all the river.
d) No need to do nucklear in Japan, USA, UK, China. just switch to gas + oil.
e) no need to do tar sand in Canada. as tar sand is
as of now, there is no major oil field found since 2004. peak discovery was in 1967, after Ghawar (saudi arab) no more major oil field bigger than ghawar was found.

current EROEI for deep sea oil is 5:1. That means 5 barrel of oil for one barrel of oil invested in production exclude exploration cost.
Since 1980s, no more new oil refining facilities was developped. if there is oil why not build more refinery.
All major oil companies merged.
Exxon + Mobil. e.g.

The no of oil well drill in USA exceed those in Middle east by a factor of 10x.
nothing can replace oil. period.
Money cannot buy oil in the future.
*
serious la bro, i've been asking the branch for the last 6 months and they always don't have stock. unless customers sold to them and they resell back to you. now i wont say 6 months solid everyday out of stock coz i didnt check everyday but maybe you bought from them on the day someone just sold their gold?

as for oil, you might want to check out oilsands and canada. i believe if oil price is profitable enough they can always increase their production
chef
post Oct 23 2011, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(jeff_ckf @ Oct 23 2011, 08:19 AM)
Greetings fellow gold bugs, am just wondering where do most of you purchase your physical gold? Is it safe to purchase off eBay? I know most of you go for UOB but it's not readily available not to mention I'm not from KL so it makes matters even harder. Any other alternative?

Are there a lot of fakes on Pamp gold bars? Thanks guys smile.gif
*
Hey, look around here, there are people selling gold, like me, I have 2 pc to sell off, if the price is right, 20g and 1oz sealed pamp. PM me if you interested.

Anyway, I don't think many people can fake pamp gold bars, since it is sealed in the certicard with serial number, maybe there will be fake coins but pamp gold bars are authentic, as long as they are sealed.

chef
eXTaTine
post Oct 23 2011, 11:20 PM

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When will gold rebound again? When attention shifts to the US debt crisis, and it will really fly when they finally announce QE3. For the moment the US dollar is being regarded as a safe haven play. When the US debt crisis starts being talked about, then the safe haven play will shift once again to Gold.

This post has been edited by eXTaTine: Oct 23 2011, 11:22 PM
kakiayam
post Oct 24 2011, 10:25 AM

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when i could have a luck like this shocking.gif


GoldChan
post Oct 24 2011, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(bigwolf @ Oct 23 2011, 07:02 PM)
serious la bro, i've been asking the branch for the last 6 months and they always don't have stock. unless customers sold to them and they resell back to you. now i wont say 6 months solid everyday out of stock coz i didnt check everyday but maybe you bought from them on the day someone just sold their gold?

as for oil, you might want to check out oilsands and canada. i believe if oil price is profitable enough they can always increase their production
*
1. ask the counter personally. I think it was still available 2-3 mths ago as i was there and saw few people buying.
2.canada oil sand.
well its -ve energy lah.
in any oil field , gas is found. but just like some liquid in the balloon. if you poke the balloon the gas will go off 1st. so gas will run off 1st b4 we run out of oil.
So in many oil field, when gas is found there have 2 options.
a) if it not economical, not much gas just burn it.
b) if got pipeline, lot of gas, then capture it and pipe it to LNG infrastructure.

in canada sandoil, they are using the nearby gas from the tarsand, burn it to heat up the sand + oil + water to extract the oil.
Once the gas run out, you still have oil in the sand but U could not extra it. period.
annual production is still very low lah. not justifiable as a resources.

When U C news on finance, politic, etc we tend not to believe the general media.
But when media tell U about some new technology, new oil discovery, people believe it. That is was hope is all about. but for me
my study show me there is not much hope in oil.
U just give me any point I can give you a counter example.

Money = ability to do work = energy.
The way our $ system work today does not factor in the actual energy cost and actual cost to replace the energy.
once the non-renewable energy run out, that it. things will far apart2 very2 fast.


zaizu
post Oct 24 2011, 10:52 AM

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gold news on socio political media

sharing

http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.ph...-soon?&Itemid=2

kevyeoh
post Oct 24 2011, 02:26 PM

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i think nothing is sure in this world and even if that person tells you it's safe, will it really mean anything? no one knows in future what will happen...it might drop, the price might be stable flat...or it might rush up again...

wink.gif


QUOTE(tcken @ Oct 23 2011, 12:47 PM)
good point you made bro! Btw, so the conclusion is does it safe to do gold investment? smile.gif
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thunderaj
post Oct 24 2011, 03:21 PM

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gold price = myr 166.20 per gram

FrancescoTop8
post Oct 24 2011, 06:07 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Oct 24 2011, 02:26 PM)
i think nothing is sure in this world and even if that person tells you it's safe, will it really mean anything? no one knows in future what will happen...it might drop, the price might be stable flat...or it might rush up again...

wink.gif
*
Yes.
Gold used to regards as safe haven besides USD and Swiss Franc.

But suddenly investor regard it as a risky asset.
Perhaps due to very high allocation in ETF/paper gold.
In ETF investor can easily bought and sold the gold easily.Its like stock.
And as the nature of stock which is very volatile, the same goes to gold.
cherroy
post Oct 24 2011, 06:10 PM

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QUOTE(FrancescoTop8 @ Oct 24 2011, 06:07 PM)
Yes.
Gold used to regards as safe haven besides USD and Swiss Franc.

But suddenly investor regard it as a risky asset.
Perhaps due to very high allocation in ETF/paper gold.
In ETF investor can easily bought and sold the gold easily.Its like stock.
And as the nature of stock which is very volatile, the same goes to gold.
*
Gold is over-crowded and fill with lot of short term trader, speculator, ETF, and many treat it like a stock now.
See how people everyday eager to know what is the price of today, as same as people look at stock price.


xproc
post Oct 24 2011, 07:17 PM

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i want to go to open a account at uob... but its so damn far from me .... just a need take a half day leave for it...
ay@m
post Oct 24 2011, 08:11 PM

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Take a one day pain to open public bank...then can do online trading...

QUOTE(xproc @ Oct 24 2011, 07:17 PM)
i want to go to open a account at uob... but its so damn far from me .... just a need take a half day leave for it...
*

Added on October 24, 2011, 8:12 pm+1

Agree with u.... Sounds more like stocks now...

QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 24 2011, 06:10 PM)
Gold is over-crowded and fill with lot of short term trader, speculator, ETF, and many treat it like a stock now.
See how people everyday eager to know what is the price of today, as same as people look at stock price.
*
This post has been edited by ay@m: Oct 24 2011, 08:12 PM
echoesian
post Oct 24 2011, 09:58 PM

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QUOTE(ay@m @ Oct 24 2011, 08:11 PM)
Take a one day pain to open public bank...then can do online trading...

Added on October 24, 2011, 8:12 pm+1

Agree with u.... Sounds more like stocks now...
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Public bank is a lot expensive and also has bigger spread....
Moshpit
post Oct 25 2011, 09:20 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 24 2011, 06:10 PM)
Gold is over-crowded and fill with lot of short term trader, speculator, ETF, and many treat it like a stock now.
See how people everyday eager to know what is the price of today, as same as people look at stock price.
*
Actually, central bank in the world are the big buyers for gold. If US keep printing more money, the price of gold will increase. This central bank are now slowly selling off their USD currency for gold.
eXTaTine
post Oct 25 2011, 09:23 AM

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I expect a correction soon, either today or tomorrow.

This post has been edited by eXTaTine: Oct 25 2011, 09:26 AM
xproc
post Oct 25 2011, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(ay@m @ Oct 24 2011, 08:11 PM)
Take a one day pain to open public bank...then can do online trading...

Added on October 24, 2011, 8:12 pm+1

Agree with u.... Sounds more like stocks now...
*
i got pb gia liao... not happy with the spread, not at all... online is good... but the spread is killing all of us....

if i buy from pbb spread is 170.18-163.5 = 6.68 * 50 = 334

uob = 2 x 50 = 100 + 50 parking (premium jockey parking) + 150 (2 hours leave) = 300 (still lower than pbb spread)

i think if got online & small spread = win...

cherroy
post Oct 25 2011, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(Moshpit @ Oct 25 2011, 09:20 AM)
Actually, central bank in the world are the big buyers for gold. If US keep printing more money, the price of gold will increase. This central bank are now slowly selling off their USD currency for gold.
*
There is no new QE at the moment.
Unless we see QE3, then yes, every hard asset price will sky-rocketing again.

Gold is not a consumable item, gold amount in the market will become more and more only.
So central banks buying using USD while on the other hand gold mining keep on supplying, as long as there is balance in between, price won't go too far.

Gold price is dictated by fear, inflation expectation, and money that willing to park in gold.

Gold price highly will increase over the long term, but whether the increase will able to offset other asset class, and give decent return, still rather unknown.

We had loss decade of 20+ years for gold as well.
We had booming and magnificent run from 2005 until now.
So future will be how, still rather unknown.

It depends on how economy situation unfolding.
If economy recover well, and central banks around the world start to raise back interest rate and suck back in the liquidity, gold price may not perform well.
If economy still troublesome, which lead to central banks opt for QE, then we may see another round of upside.

Whether central banks buying or not, is not a big issue on this, it is economy situation, liquidity and general investment community expectation on it.

thunderaj
post Oct 25 2011, 10:13 AM

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gold myr 166.51 per gram.

agreed gold now behaving like stock market. risk level may increase.



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