no exit plan la... that's why the panic questions... so just bite the bullet?

what other option to decide? there's 2 other portions still in bonds... throw them in when market goes lower? (afraid to use the word "crash")

any other opinions?

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Added on June 20, 2012, 5:45 pm19/6/2012 PUBLIC SMALLCAP FUND PSMALLCAP 0.7449 -0.0008 -0.11%

in a wall of green... only equity in red...

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Added on June 20, 2012, 5:50 pmbtw what is "exit" plan? How do you set it?


This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Jun 20 2012, 05:50 PM

Options as i see them (not too intimate with your data ar.. heheh, just assumptions + my own cow sense):
1. IF your bonds+cash for investments % is >= your investment equities held %, then i think U should stay put for now
Reason:
IF market goes south deep, say drop of 30% to 40%, and people starts swearing/suiciding, U have enough cash or bonds to buy at lelong $ equities to cover or more than cover your losses.
Note however, U need nerves of steel to go against the crowd of doomsayers.

2. IF your investment equities are totally overshadowing your bonds+cash for investments, then i think U should switch out enough to balance or overweight a bit on the bonds side.

Why not go 100% or 80% into bonds/cash?
IMHO (no crystal balls as usual ), no one knows how high is high and how low is low + how long the highs/lows will cruise before a reversal.
Wasn't KLSE's highest 16XX in early 2012 a surprise after 2011 Aug/Sep Euro scare?
Wasn't KLSE's plunge in 2008 a surprise after 2006/2007 highs?
Thus, when in doubt, look to your own Asset Allocation held VS planned - that, IMHO, is the "best bet".

Exit Plans
er.. in all our actions, best to have Entry, management/tracking and Exit plans lor
a. Entry plans = after filtering, the whens and whys to enter (eg. a TV, job, investment, relationship , etc.)
b. Management/tracking = usage & life cycle management (eg. where to keep the dividends, how to climb the career ladder/project, how to grow the relationship, etc.)
c. Exit plans = when to cut-loss, take profit, dispose, and how much to execute, and how to execute

Thus, when "fire breaks out", one knows exactly what to do as the triggers and reasoning were done BEFORE hand.
Not too smart to plan AND execute during a fire right? Especially when fear & greed are on one's shoulders

Just a thought, no right/wrong yar

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Jun 21 2012, 12:04 PM

Thanks for the reply.

Just manage to give it a quick read now, will give a longer reply and tell what my plans will be.

Thanks again.

Cheers.

Sigh. This year market is so bad. My funds value almost the same since 6 months ago. Bond up, equity drop and finally no loss no gain.

Anyone want to top up smallcap before it never reopen again?

This post has been edited by mois: Jun 21 2012, 04:22 PM

imo, market not that bad. it just how we manage the fund.

reason i said that because im gaining this year..

How much you earn this year? My portfolio only gain like 4-5% since january.

7%-10%...can go more this 2 weeks. but i prefer to stop for a while.

First of all, thanks again for taking the time...

Now i see what you mean by plans... yeah, the motivation behind the savings... for me, a simple man, just savings for rainy days and retirement. Other needs, I don't put into long term savings - plain FD without high entry cost would better serve those needs. And EPF still has a big bulk of my savings. (And if PM is reading this and waiting to lay a hand on this savings, dream on - until you lower the entry cost. )

Ok, I also have savings in other assets (if I get the meaning of 'Asset Allocation' correctly). So in this category, I seems to be doing fine.

The major problem is my portfolio of PM funds; as mentioned in previous posts. Not in the same situation as yours to have 80-100% in bonds.

I started to raise a batch of fast horses while previously, having only a hardy goat. So without prior understanding, I treated the horses wrongly, letting them run free and wild like the goat. The goat is tame, very hardy, no problem when times were bad, and able to forage on its own. But not the horses, some run really wild, jump over the fence and got lost.

It's only this year, I got the time to tend to them; and now understand that with horses, the most profitable time is when they won a race. Win a race, sell them. Old horses become dog food. So by now, I also found most of them, with all the unsupervised free running, have turned lame as well.

And everyone knows what to do with a lame horse... you shoot it.

So, 3 months ago, I shot one. And another one today. There's still 5 more in the stable. It's too painful to shoot them all at once.

Still, I'm doing my best to balance the portfolio.

Has 3 licensed-to-kill agents in the wing to deploy if the situation turns ugly. (Yes, it's 3, not 2 as wrongly mentioned in above post.) And also 2 moderators, who should be able to negotiate their way out of trouble on their own.

Made 2 agents do fox runs 2 weeks ago. Got into panic mode during the mission, but all is well.

One of the 2 agents made a split run - into Singapore and to a lame horse. Did not complete the fox run, but did a grasshopper hop from Singapore to a safe haven moderator. Also shot dead the lame horse and carry it to another safe haven moderator.

The other agent is still in the PIOF coop, still stealing chicken! I think he will complete the fox run after stealing enough chicken, and return to base. Another grasshopper hop is possible, as I can't afford to have too many agents sleeping in their bases.

Will only know how many chicken I got with the fox runs tomorrow, after the penalty fees and costs are calculated. But I think it will be more productive than allowing the agents to sit on their bums doing nothing.

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continue from previous post...

PM is slow in updating the switch transactions, they are still in "Float Transactions"... maybe will only be updated on Monday.

Based on the latest fund prices, the switching out of a bond fund and into an (aggressive) equity fund and back into the bond fund in 14 days, resulted in a gain of 2.83%.

If the switching cost and penalty is 0.25% + 0.75% = 1.00%, the net gain is 1.83%.

(The highest possible net gain is 2.29% if I had switched out a day earlier.)

So this tactical play, which I named as "fox run", gained 1.83% in 14 days, in comparison to a bond fund gaining 0.89% in 106 days.

If this "fox run" is repeated 4-6 times in a year, it would generate 8-12% in a year.

If it is repeated nearly 2 times a month, or 20 times a year, allowing for 50% success, 30% empty-handed breakeven run, and 20% turning into a willy coyote and getting blown away with 1% lost; it will be a "Super Fox" with 16% gain in a year.

This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Jun 22 2012, 07:24 PM

Regular saving n Islamic Income Fund seems doing well. I switch all from laggard Islamic Money Market to Islamic Income Fund for now. So, left two fund to balance. Ratio is about 73% Islamic Income and 27% on regular saving. Since I want take low risk, if market up, i will let regular saving runs but if market down, i use islamic income to accumulate regular saving by batches. All investment using EPF. That's my plan for now

btw, Public Bond is doing well. Shouldn't have switch or sold it last time.

I wonder why those underperformed manager didnt get sack for their poor performance? I mean, these fund managers might have CFA and a floor full of analysts, yet some street investors can perform better than that?

Above was what I wrote last month, situation is almost the same, except the local bourse is at its peak.

Had just made myself a strong cup of coffee, take a sip and deep breath, and shot all the lame horses.

All these china and far east horses are limping and will loose another leg and will never recover & reach home.

So shot all of them, and sold them for dog food, taking a lost of 23k.

fund manager think too much?!

23k real loss or paper loss? Which funds make u loss so much?

local or foreign funds? and when start invest?

Paper or not, a lost is a lost.
(And not to mentioned the opportunity cost if I have had put the money in FD or EPF.)

Can only hope to be more cautious and recover the lost in near future... and with the support and experiences shared in this forum, it should not be too difficult to achieve.

It's all stated in some of my previous posts since I joined this forum... read them carefully and you should be able to figure out all my mistakes I made.

A value is meaningless in isolation, do share with us, how much was your investment capital?

If your capital was 1m, 23K lost is only -2.3%
If your capital was 50K, 23K lost is -46%

Any recommendation? Started with local now only on rsf recently but as time comes, considering pumping in more maybe towards moderate risk group

i got a far east alpha 30 fund still making losses...i DDI to this fund also just hope the fund can get better.

else i gonna cut loss and channel the money to REIT instead