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 Are property prices going to up further? V3

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myone1015
post Sep 6 2011, 09:38 AM

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The highest in Asia.

"Bapa transfomasi" must be damn proud now.
TSsampool
post Sep 6 2011, 09:39 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ Sep 6 2011, 10:27 AM)
These numbers are very bad.
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simple question.. how many can affort without salary income or rental income for continue 6 months (at least)? ... if unaffordable, is this ppl going to sell their non performance asset during bad times?? and How many willing to pickup these asset for 6 months (at least) continues in lost..??
myone1015
post Sep 6 2011, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Sep 6 2011, 09:39 AM)
simple question.. how many can affort without salary income or rental income for continue 6 months (at least)? ... if unaffordable, is this ppl going to sell their non performance asset during bad times?? and How many willing to pickup these asset for 6 months (at least) continues in lost..??
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i think only 10-20% can afford to do that...
lucerne
post Sep 6 2011, 09:45 AM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Sep 6 2011, 12:17 AM)
problem if the value of property is a lot lesser than the loan balance amount, do you think the bank will ask you to top up the balance?
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not likely, most probably they will extend the loan period. (happened in HK).. if u r too old/die , your child will take over lor or else they will take over your prop after 20-30 years which bank think the prop value is more than the loan..(after so many years installments)
in fact, most bank prefer longer installment to make more $
Iceman74
post Sep 6 2011, 09:50 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Sep 6 2011, 09:39 AM)
simple question.. how many can affort without salary income or rental income for continue 6 months (at least)? ... if unaffordable, is this ppl going to sell their non performance asset during bad times?? and How many willing to pickup these asset for 6 months (at least) continues in lost..??
*
for yr 1st question...very minimum now..alot kiasu & greedy so call investors

& yr next question.. big "0" cos me will not pick it up & same with others "old bird" investors i know. i only enter when bank valuation more then selling price tongue.gif
TSsampool
post Sep 6 2011, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(myone1015 @ Sep 6 2011, 10:41 AM)
i think only 10-20% can afford to do that...
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these is where the bubble is forming... 10-20% are they willing to support 80%-90% ppl who are in urgent need for $$..

during recession times... many may think these 10-20% will become richer as there able to sapu 80%-90% ppl asset.. they need to think their holding power as well..except for super-rich is different story.. opp always in their side (bad times or good times).. one thing dun expect super-rich will buy ur shoplot or double storey or condo... they will rather invest in retail commercial building in right times and right location..

This post has been edited by sampool: Sep 6 2011, 10:02 AM
prody
post Sep 6 2011, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Sep 6 2011, 09:39 AM)
simple question.. how many can affort without salary income or rental income for continue 6 months (at least)? ... if unaffordable, is this ppl going to sell their non performance asset during bad times?? and How many willing to pickup these asset for 6 months (at least) continues in lost..??
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I guess some will have to.

Some others will start to panic when they see their assets paper profit start to drop.


lucerne
post Sep 6 2011, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(myone1015 @ Sep 6 2011, 09:41 AM)
i think only 10-20% can afford to do that...
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in term of number of pepple yes, but they maybe from very very rich ppl who can take over 70-80% of the very cheap prop. (the remaining 20-30% prop maybe hv higher holding power and refused to sell cheap).
To the rich, this is the time to make $.. (eg Li Kah Shing, donald trump, kiyosaki and many other world class property tycoon)
myone1015
post Sep 6 2011, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Sep 6 2011, 09:55 AM)
in term of number of pepple yes, but they maybe from very very rich ppl who can take over 70-80% of the very cheap prop. (the remaining 20-30% prop maybe hv higher holding power and refused to sell cheap).
To the rich, this is the time to make $.. (eg Li Kah Shing, donald trump, kiyosaki and many other world class property tycoon)
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the rich also have bought very expensive properties. some might need to get loan also. Part of their wealth is also "paper money".

When the stock/property market crash, their "wealth" might disappear too...

You think they keep all their wealth in cash???
lucerne
post Sep 6 2011, 11:44 AM

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QUOTE(myone1015 @ Sep 6 2011, 11:07 AM)
the rich also have bought very expensive properties. some might need to get loan also. Part of their wealth is also "paper money".

When the stock/property market crash, their "wealth" might disappear too...

You think they keep all their wealth in cash???
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dont be surprise many rich are sitting with millions of spare cash..
also due to their good will and potential/capacity to make $, bank are willing to give them more loan la..
bank also have target to meet even at bad time..
eg Li Kah Sing sapu-ed many HK prop during 97 crisis and now make ton of $


Added on September 6, 2011, 12:00 pmsome good news for Msia..sorry, oni in chinese maybe someone can extract from other source
http://www.zaobao.com/cg/cg110906_001.shtml


This post has been edited by lucerne: Sep 6 2011, 12:00 PM
Fazab
post Sep 6 2011, 12:18 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Sep 6 2011, 09:45 AM)
not likely, most probably they will extend the loan period. (happened in HK).. if u r too old/die , your child will take over lor or else they will take over your prop after 20-30 years which bank think the prop value is more than the loan..(after so many years installments)
in fact, most bank prefer longer installment to make more $
*
Quite the contrary, banks make the bulk of their profit during the first half of your loan tenure
e.g if you borrow for 20 years, your bank would have taken > 2/3 of their profit in the 1st 10 years.
This is due to the unfair way the loan is ammortised - in the 1st 10 years or so, the bulk of your payment goes towards servicing the interest/profit

That's why if you notice, many banks have reduce the lock-in period, to encourage flipping
It is more profitable for the bank if you refinance/sell within 5 - 10 years to free up the principal for them to catch the next waterfish whistling.gif

The long tenures being offered are just part of the bait to get you hooked........

I just applied for a loan and when I told they bankers/agents I will be servicing it till the 'end' they all looked at me in disbelief hmm.gif

Yes I am buying even though I think market is going to flat --> dip --> some crashes in 3 years
For own stay. Also getting old. When you get old, tenure goes down, MRTA goes up up up like rocket. cry.gif
So wait if you are young and can wait, but don't wait too long. Wait also got costs.

Just make sure select carefully, don't panic buy, and got enough survival margin

But am saving a bit of cash, as I think there will be some ikan bilis to catch in 2-3 years time drool.gif
myone1015
post Sep 6 2011, 12:20 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Sep 6 2011, 11:44 AM)
dont be surprise many rich are sitting with millions of spare cash..
also due to their good will and potential/capacity to make $, bank are willing to give them more loan la..
bank also have target to meet even at bad time..
eg Li Kah Sing sapu-ed many HK prop during 97 crisis and now make ton of $


Added on September 6, 2011, 12:00 pmsome good news for Msia..sorry, oni in chinese maybe someone can extract from other source
http://www.zaobao.com/cg/cg110906_001.shtml
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too bad, the super rich e.g. li ka sing is only 0.0001% of the population. They won't help you to sustain the property price.
hazairi
post Sep 6 2011, 12:31 PM

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Keep in mind with this statement guys:

As a percentage of GDP, Malaysia’s household debt increased from 66.7 per cent in 2004 to 76 per cent in 2009, which is uncomfortably close to the levels seen in the US prior to the 2008 financial crisis.

And what happened to US when the household debt reached it's height? It will happen to us soon. Be prepared!
lucerne
post Sep 6 2011, 01:21 PM

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QUOTE(myone1015 @ Sep 6 2011, 12:20 PM)
too bad, the super rich e.g. li ka sing is only 0.0001% of the population. They won't help you to sustain the property price.
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li kah shing is just an example lah, what i m trying to say they are hundreds of rich are waiting to buy cheap prop when market crashed..the rich will get richer..
hazairi
post Sep 6 2011, 01:27 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Sep 6 2011, 01:21 PM)
li kah shing is just an example lah, what i m trying to say they are hundreds of rich are waiting to buy cheap prop when market crashed..the rich will get richer..
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that's what the whole thing is about. All of these cycle purposely serves the big and smart players.

They buy when it's cheap and they sell when they know the price is not going to sustain anymore.

When the property price suddenly stagnant then you'll know most of the big players has stopped buying and waiting for the bubble to burst..
TSsampool
post Sep 6 2011, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(hazairi @ Sep 6 2011, 02:27 PM)
that's what the whole thing is about. All of these cycle purposely serves the big and smart players.

They buy when it's cheap and they sell when they know the price is not going to sustain anymore.

When the property price suddenly stagnant then you'll know most of the big players has stopped buying and waiting for the bubble to burst..
*
as far as hear from big bosses... big player already started to sell since early of last year...


Added on September 6, 2011, 2:44 pmhttp://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/51382

房價或下調10%

This post has been edited by sampool: Sep 6 2011, 02:48 PM
cherroy
post Sep 6 2011, 03:05 PM

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QUOTE(Fazab @ Sep 6 2011, 12:18 PM)
Yes I am buying even though I think market is going to flat --> dip --> some crashes in 3 years
For own stay. Also getting old. When you get old, tenure goes down, MRTA goes up up up like rocket.  cry.gif
So wait if you are young and can wait, but don't wait too long. Wait also got costs.

Just make sure select carefully, don't panic buy, and got enough survival margin

But am saving a bit of cash, as I think there will be some ikan bilis to catch in 2-3 years time  drool.gif
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For own stay, it is all about own liking on the property, own affordability on the property.
Housing price high or not is never a major consideration at all.
TSsampool
post Sep 6 2011, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 6 2011, 04:05 PM)
For own stay, it is all about own liking on the property, own affordability on the property.
Housing price high or not is never a major consideration at all.
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this i agreed.. human will sacrified for their hobby/interest.. nothing wrong.

This post has been edited by sampool: Sep 6 2011, 03:14 PM
cherroy
post Sep 6 2011, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(hazairi @ Sep 6 2011, 08:52 AM)
Household loan growth in Malaysia accelerated to 12.5 per cent in May, while household loan applications and approvals remain elevated - which may provide a justification for one last hike to pre-empt further build-up of household leverage.

"Household debt at 77 per cent of GDP (gross domestic product) is now the highest in Asia, with debt service approaching half of household income, even before the OPR was raised.


Read more: Malaysia likely to raise key rate: Economists http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...l#ixzz1X84DgS7R

Household debt is now the highest in Asia? Be prepared guys..
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Household debt is including credit card debt, personal loan and on top of housing loan.

Yes, it is a worrysome figure.
That's why you see BNM is keen on controlling this.
RM50 annual fee on CC
Less than 2 CC.
70% on third property.

and latest rumour is about net income used as based on housing loan affordability, instead of current gross income.

I always reiterated the best way to control housing price and excessive speculation is always RPGT.
This is the one of the best and effective tool.
lucerne
post Sep 6 2011, 03:41 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 6 2011, 03:16 PM)
Household debt is including credit card debt, personal loan and on top of housing loan.

Yes, it is a worrysome figure.
That's why you see BNM is keen on controlling this.
RM50 annual fee on CC
Less than 2 CC.
70% on third property.

and latest rumour is about net income used as based on housing loan affordability, instead of current gross income.

I always reiterated the best way to control housing price and excessive speculation is always RPGT.
This is the one of the best and effective tool.
*
the most effctive way is limit # of units each person can buy like what China did recently. Few year ago China, and recently Taiwan also use RPGT similar kind of tax but still failed to curb price increase. The seller just top up what ever tax on top and end up buyer bear the tax. until recently govt limit buy then the price slow down in few major cities, but sh, beijing still up a little. (dun know why)

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