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 Are property prices going to up further? V3

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kidmad
post Sep 6 2011, 10:43 PM

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QUOTE(debtismoney @ Sep 6 2011, 10:13 PM)
Let's us learn from WORLD history if you will.

See how much house prices have fallen from the peak in the countries below,

Japan - plummeted over 70% since 1990
Dubai - plunged nearly 60% in 3 years and still falling
Ireland - crashed 40-50% in 4 years and still heading south
US - down over 30% since 2006 and still no bottom in sight
Spain - dropped 20-30% and still falling

Well, whatever happens life will go on and everyone still needs a roof? Scarcity of land? Hot spot areas? We could apply all these factors to the countries above, can't we?

Don't you think bolehsia is so different, think again. Don't you think our overbuilding frenzy, easy/flexible loan, historical low interest, zero interest loan scheme, developers rebate for down payment etc. are not a recipe causing a housing bubble waiting to burst? When the housing bubble bursts, many people tie to this sector will lose their jobs, whatever happens life will go on?

Our household debt has reached an alarming level, we simply cannot borrow more money to sustain the current house prices, this household deleveraging process will take 5-10 years to run its course, it won't go away in few quarters.

Anyway, I really have nothing to gain, just want to spread this message around, so some flippers won't lose their shirts and sleep under some bridges. Wake up Flippers! Wake up! Let's learn from history.
*
do you see houses in tokyo keep going down? do you see new york house prices going down? despite they are having a debt crisis? Houses in Beijing had shoot up more than 100% in 5 years time... Do you see bangkok which went bankrupt stop developing? Have their house prices drop since ever then? You really have to read properly and observe more. You should not take the overall well being of a country to do a benchmark. From what i've written, i'm only talking about klang valley. our debt level might rise up to 80% or 90% but that's overall for everyone in malaysia. 80% of malaysian are earning below RM3.5k what do you expect? Of course everyone would have to borrow from the bank. If you would have read my message properly. Indeed everyone should be alarm and be aware but if a house is needed it's always a smarter choice to BUY instead of RENTING if you are living in Klang Valley. If you are staying outskirt somewhere outside of Klang Valley then you might opt for renting.

You keep focusing on other ppls life. You should focus more on your own. Have you borrowed any money from the bank? Your credit card balance cleared yet? Go and do the necessary! if you need a place to stay and you don't want to buy a home, where you wanna live? under the bridge? or being a smart arse renting a studio apartment for 2.6k? oh well if you are living outside of klang valley renting is always cheap! The debt level is indeed alarming but if you have not borrowed any should you be worrying? if you do not have a debt you do not even need to be alarmed! I hope you get what i mean.

Btw who are you? Ananda? Robert san? Come on it's only your 2 cents worth. If everyone is worried and stop their buying where will it lead us to? From your comments, can you GUARANTEE our future? Your point is base on other's speculation. In Year 2007 i thought it would hit us hard as well. Ended up i did not get any property in 2008... and in 2009 i had a ghost bump because the blardy property i'm looking for had shoot up from 180k to 280k just for a studio apartment....

The point is.. if you are capable and you need a place by all means you should get a place to stay, the waiting game should only be played when you intend to invest. Life is simple, no matter what happens tomorrow you still have to live with it. You have to find your way to build what you want. If you don't start building what you need now, i'm afraid it would be NEVER...

of course like my previous post, to those flippers who bought homes beyond their capability.. Good LUCK!
chgan98
post Sep 6 2011, 11:14 PM

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@debtismoney - while historically the facts shows a down trend, one must also understand the fundamentals that causes it... while there're similarity there're also differences... anyway thanks for the heeds.

@kidmad - cool... cool2.gif believed everyone has own opinions... owning or renting...choices is in the hand of beholder...
siaukia
post Sep 7 2011, 12:32 AM

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with the crazy price of landed property escalating like nobody's business, would like to hear your opinion on this, on this few scenario:
Based on rule of thumb of ( annual income * 5 = recommended property price to purchase )

Person A: Earning 5k/month ( 12 * 5000) * 5 = 300,000
Person B: Earning 10k/month ( 12 * 10000) * 5 = 600,000

a) Do you think it is advisable for Person A to go for a property selling at 500,000?
b) Do you think it is advisable for Person B to go for a property selling at 700,000?
cranx
post Sep 7 2011, 12:53 AM

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speculators say why is the rule of thumb 5 times income?
we are preaching 8 to 10 times income now. Why? we are not competing among ourselves only, there are a lot of foreigners with better purchasing power buying up all of our properties.

RM5k income is now buying RM400k ~ RM500k properties.
RM10k income going for RM800k ~ RM1million already. laugh.gif

dont buy now means forever homeless.
duckaton
post Sep 7 2011, 01:07 AM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Sep 7 2011, 12:53 AM)
speculators say why is the rule of thumb 5 times income?
we are preaching 8 to 10 times income now. Why? we are not competing among ourselves only, there are a lot of foreigners with better purchasing power buying up all of our properties.

RM5k income is now buying RM400k ~ RM500k properties.
RM10k income going for RM800k ~ RM1million already. laugh.gif

dont buy now means forever homeless.
*
agreed.
ask the speculators to follow their own rules first.
siaukia
post Sep 7 2011, 01:37 AM

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edit: removed unnecessary/childish comment from my side.

after reading this: http://www.naturalnews.com/016209_housing_...eal_estate.html
and this: http://www.naturalnews.com/016241.html
via one of the thread in here, i think i get my answers already smile.gif


This post has been edited by siaukia: Sep 7 2011, 02:01 AM
kidmad
post Sep 7 2011, 06:39 AM

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QUOTE(siaukia @ Sep 7 2011, 12:32 AM)
with the crazy price of landed property escalating like nobody's business, would like to hear your opinion on this, on this few scenario:
Based on rule of thumb of ( annual income * 5 = recommended property price to purchase )

Person A: Earning 5k/month ( 12 * 5000) * 5 = 300,000
Person B: Earning 10k/month ( 12 * 10000) * 5 = 600,000

a) Do you think it is advisable for Person A to go for a property selling at 500,000?
b) Do you think it is advisable for Person B to go for a property selling at 700,000?
*
B going for 700k property is still ok but A going for 500k property is really risky. 500k with 10% downpayment most likely you need to pay a 2.3k monthly while the 700k one you need to pay 3.2k monthly. Of course B with 10k income would have more to spend.
TSsampool
post Sep 7 2011, 07:37 AM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Sep 7 2011, 01:53 AM)
speculators say why is the rule of thumb 5 times income?
we are preaching 8 to 10 times income now. Why? we are not competing among ourselves only, there are a lot of foreigners with better purchasing power buying up all of our properties.
RM5k income is now buying RM400k ~ RM500k properties.
RM10k income going for RM800k ~ RM1million already. laugh.gif

dont buy now means forever homeless.
*
the developer will like U!!! hehe...

a lot of foreigners? That is problem... are their children willing to stay here... too many thing need to consider...

Just prepare...


Added on September 7, 2011, 7:56 am
QUOTE(chgan98 @ Sep 7 2011, 12:14 AM)
@debtismoney - while historically the facts shows a down trend, one must also understand the fundamentals that causes it... while there're similarity there're also differences... anyway thanks for the heeds.

@kidmad - cool... cool2.gif  believed everyone has own opinions... owning or renting...choices is in the hand of beholder...
*
there are nothing wrong or right.. just prepare.. Nothing is GUARANTEE, included our job tomorrow...

This post has been edited by sampool: Sep 7 2011, 07:56 AM
chgan98
post Sep 7 2011, 09:02 AM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Sep 7 2011, 12:53 AM)
speculators say why is the rule of thumb 5 times income?
we are preaching 8 to 10 times income now. Why? we are not competing among ourselves only, there are a lot of foreigners with better purchasing power buying up all of our properties.

RM5k income is now buying RM400k ~ RM500k properties.
RM10k income going for RM800k ~ RM1million already. laugh.gif

dont buy now means forever homeless.
*
... hmm.gif ... the trend and leverage is worrying... sweat.gif
debtismoney
post Sep 7 2011, 09:02 AM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Sep 7 2011, 12:43 AM)
do you see houses in tokyo keep going down? do you see new york house prices going down? despite they are having a debt crisis? Houses in Beijing had shoot up more than 100% in 5 years time... Do you see bangkok which went bankrupt stop developing? Have their house prices drop since ever then? You really have to read properly and observe more. You should not take the overall well being of a country to do a benchmark. From what i've written, i'm only talking about klang valley. our debt level might rise up to 80% or 90% but that's overall for everyone in malaysia. 80% of malaysian are earning below RM3.5k what do you expect? Of course everyone would have to borrow from the bank. If you would have read my message properly. Indeed everyone should be alarm and be aware but if a house is needed it's always a smarter choice to BUY instead of RENTING if you are living in Klang Valley. If you are staying outskirt somewhere outside of Klang Valley then you might opt for renting.

You keep focusing on other ppls life. You should focus more on your own. Have you borrowed any money from the bank? Your credit card balance cleared yet? Go and do the necessary! if you need a place to stay and you don't want to buy a home, where you wanna live? under the bridge? or being a smart arse renting a studio apartment for 2.6k? oh well if you are living outside of klang valley renting is always cheap! The debt level is indeed alarming but if you have not borrowed any should you be worrying? if you do not have a debt you do not even need to be alarmed! I hope you get what i mean.

Btw who are you? Ananda? Robert san? Come on it's only your 2 cents worth. If everyone is worried and stop their buying where will it lead us to? From your comments, can you GUARANTEE our future? Your point is base on other's speculation. In Year 2007 i thought it would hit us hard as well. Ended up i did not get any property in 2008... and in 2009 i had a ghost bump because the blardy property i'm looking for had shoot up from 180k to 280k just for a studio apartment....

The point is.. if you are capable and you need a place by all means you should get a place to stay, the waiting game should only be played when you intend to invest. Life is simple, no matter what happens tomorrow you still have to live with it. You have to find your way to build what you want. If you don't start building what you need now, i'm afraid it would be NEVER...

of course like my previous post, to those flippers who bought homes beyond their capability.. Good LUCK!
*
I shouldn't quote you in my last post, nothing against you seriously.

One could simply ignore the opposing views if found it no room to fit it.

I shouldn't write this, but some say debate is a good way to exercise your brain, it would make you younger and smarter. Take it easy. It's good fun to argue here, we don't know each other, you can't do this to your wife or friends, can't you? laugh.gif


Btw who are you? Ananda? Robert san?

Well, I'm who I'm, some say I look like Santa Claus biggrin.gif, maybe I'm too enthusiastic.

I'm here to fulfil my desire to speak out, and to learn from others of course!


From your comments, can you GUARANTEE our future? Your point is base on other's speculation.

Am I GOD, GUARANTEE your future? What are you talking about? My points are based on my analysis, facts and statistics, not other's speculation as you said.


do you see houses in tokyo keep going down? do you see new york house prices going down? despite they are having a debt crisis? Houses in Beijing had shoot up more than 100% in 5 years time

My impression is, the housing markets in Tokyo/NYC haven't hit bottom yet, I might be wrong.

The property market in coastal Chinese cities is a disaster waiting to happen, they got the most expensive properties in the world, they got empty apartment units that can house every child, man and woman in bolehsia and still got surplus. They look like Japan in the late 80s now... the prices shot up doesn't mean it will stay up there forever.


if you need a place to stay and you don't want to buy a home, where you wanna live? under the bridge? or being a smart arse renting a studio apartment for 2.6k?

Everyone needs a roof theory won't apply, if we had oversupply of houses. A 3 bedroom house can fit 2 people or 6 people or more. If recession hit, people lose their jobs, they can squeeze in their parents/relatives house if they can't afford to buy/rent.


Gentlemen, take it easy.
chgan98
post Sep 7 2011, 09:04 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Sep 7 2011, 07:37 AM)
...
there are nothing wrong or right.. just prepare.. Nothing is GUARANTEE, included our job tomorrow...
*
agree... just ensure there's a contingency plan...
debtismoney
post Sep 7 2011, 09:12 AM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Sep 7 2011, 02:53 AM)
speculators say why is the rule of thumb 5 times income?
we are preaching 8 to 10 times income now. Why? we are not competing among ourselves only, there are a lot of foreigners with better purchasing power buying up all of our properties.

RM5k income is now buying RM400k ~ RM500k properties.
RM10k income going for RM800k ~ RM1million already. laugh.gif

dont buy now means forever homeless.
*
I think the Malaysia My Second Home Scheme is a dumb move. What is the minimum house price the foreigners could purchase? 500k or something?

Every developer wants to make big bucks, this scheme gives them incentives to build million dollar homes.

When the interest rate normalises, sign, many on big mortgages with variable rate would be in trouble...
macho dog
post Sep 7 2011, 09:23 AM

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Debtismoney = DR. DOOM shakehead.gif







prody
post Sep 7 2011, 09:39 AM

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QUOTE(Gary1981 @ Sep 6 2011, 06:55 PM)
I just move in my new house @ 2 months, my opposite neighbours is selling abt RM100k higher of my purchase price..
All said, if u are buying for own stay, just go ahead and search for reasonablke selling price house and not overpriced.
*
A house near to mine has been on sale for a few years already. The asking price keeps on increasing (I think they are asking about 10% above selling prices here) and it remains unsold. It will be difficult for them to sell it if prices start to drop.
TSsampool
post Sep 7 2011, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ Sep 7 2011, 10:39 AM)
A house near to mine has been on sale for a few years already. The asking price keeps on increasing (I think they are asking about 10% above selling prices here) and it remains unsold. It will be difficult for them to sell it if prices start to drop.
*
many owner is waiting for good price.. good luck to them too. i already go thru few cases like u mention recently... just prepare..

This post has been edited by sampool: Sep 7 2011, 09:54 AM
chgan98
post Sep 7 2011, 09:57 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ Sep 7 2011, 09:39 AM)
A house near to mine has been on sale for a few years already. The asking price keeps on increasing (I think they are asking about 10% above selling prices here) and it remains unsold. It will be difficult for them to sell it if prices start to drop.
*
the owner must have a very good holding power to last that long or the house has been fully paid-off... and of course it comes with greeds smile.gif

debtismoney
post Sep 7 2011, 09:58 AM

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QUOTE(macho dog @ Sep 7 2011, 09:23 AM)
Debtismoney = DR. DOOM  shakehead.gif
*
Haha. I'm bringing in new blood of bears in this forum to counter weight the bulls who have been in controlled for so long...
nelsontan_8383
post Sep 7 2011, 10:14 AM

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QUOTE(siaukia @ Sep 7 2011, 01:37 AM)
edit: removed unnecessary/childish comment from my side.

after reading this: http://www.naturalnews.com/016209_housing_...eal_estate.html
and this: http://www.naturalnews.com/016241.html
via one of the thread in here, i think i get my answers already smile.gif
*
thanks for sharing. very details thoughts by the author. he accurately predicted the housing slump.
AVFAN
post Sep 7 2011, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Sep 6 2011, 10:43 PM)
In Year 2007 i thought it would hit us hard as well. Ended up i did not get any property in 2008... and in 2009 i had a ghost bump because the blardy property i'm looking for had shoot up from 180k to 280k just for a studio apartment....

The point is.. if you are capable and you need a place by all means you should get a place to stay, the waiting game should only be played when you intend to invest. Life is simple, no matter what happens tomorrow you still have to live with it. You have to find your way to build what you want. If you don't start building what you need now, i'm afraid it would be NEVER...

of course like my previous post, to those flippers who bought homes beyond their capability.. Good LUCK!
*
if you read carefully, just about the majority of forumers here have said if buying for own stay and planned for it, should buy. investment-speculation-expecting high rental, a big no-no for them. even now as we debate. i am in this group.
if you missed buying in 2007, either you weren't all that prepared to buy a home then or had some speculative element in mind!?
bearbearhong
post Sep 7 2011, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Sep 6 2011, 10:43 PM)
do you see houses in tokyo keep going down? do you see new york house prices going down? despite they are having a debt crisis? Houses in Beijing had shoot up more than 100% in 5 years time... Do you see bangkok which went bankrupt stop developing? Have their house prices drop since ever then? You really have to read properly and observe more. You should not take the overall well being of a country to do a benchmark. From what i've written, i'm only talking about klang valley. our debt level might rise up to 80% or 90% but that's overall for everyone in malaysia. 80% of malaysian are earning below RM3.5k what do you expect? Of course everyone would have to borrow from the bank. If you would have read my message properly. Indeed everyone should be alarm and be aware but if a house is needed it's always a smarter choice to BUY instead of RENTING if you are living in Klang Valley. If you are staying outskirt somewhere outside of Klang Valley then you might opt for renting.

You keep focusing on other ppls life. You should focus more on your own. Have you borrowed any money from the bank? Your credit card balance cleared yet? Go and do the necessary! if you need a place to stay and you don't want to buy a home, where you wanna live? under the bridge? or being a smart arse renting a studio apartment for 2.6k? oh well if you are living outside of klang valley renting is always cheap! The debt level is indeed alarming but if you have not borrowed any should you be worrying? if you do not have a debt you do not even need to be alarmed! I hope you get what i mean.

Btw who are you? Ananda? Robert san? Come on it's only your 2 cents worth. If everyone is worried and stop their buying where will it lead us to? From your comments, can you GUARANTEE our future? Your point is base on other's speculation. In Year 2007 i thought it would hit us hard as well. Ended up i did not get any property in 2008... and in 2009 i had a ghost bump because the blardy property i'm looking for had shoot up from 180k to 280k just for a studio apartment....

The point is.. if you are capable and you need a place by all means you should get a place to stay, the waiting game should only be played when you intend to invest. Life is simple, no matter what happens tomorrow you still have to live with it. You have to find your way to build what you want. If you don't start building what you need now, i'm afraid it would be NEVER...

of course like my previous post, to those flippers who bought homes beyond their capability.. Good LUCK!
*
+1 for you, as me too been hunting a 2nd property since 2007, and lived in denial that the Property price is hiking, and "cursing" the market that the then price was crazy.

I am no body to predict nor to say property price may go down or up in future, imho, it is most remain stagnant especially landed.

I do not have time do research on which country's property bubble burst or going to burse, i ddid do my reading randamntly but never bear it in mind though.



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