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 Are property prices going to up further? V3

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hazairi
post Sep 5 2011, 07:38 PM

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Bubble will burst soon! (hopefully, so dat i can buy cheap property with my cash.. LOL)
hazairi
post Sep 6 2011, 08:52 AM

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Household loan growth in Malaysia accelerated to 12.5 per cent in May, while household loan applications and approvals remain elevated - which may provide a justification for one last hike to pre-empt further build-up of household leverage.

"Household debt at 77 per cent of GDP (gross domestic product) is now the highest in Asia, with debt service approaching half of household income, even before the OPR was raised.


Read more: Malaysia likely to raise key rate: Economists http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...l#ixzz1X84DgS7R

Household debt is now the highest in Asia? Be prepared guys..
hazairi
post Sep 6 2011, 09:34 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ Sep 6 2011, 09:27 AM)
These numbers are very bad.
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wadya expect? The highest in Asia.

My advice to all is if u guys plan to buy property now, think twice.
hazairi
post Sep 6 2011, 12:31 PM

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Keep in mind with this statement guys:

As a percentage of GDP, Malaysia’s household debt increased from 66.7 per cent in 2004 to 76 per cent in 2009, which is uncomfortably close to the levels seen in the US prior to the 2008 financial crisis.

And what happened to US when the household debt reached it's height? It will happen to us soon. Be prepared!
hazairi
post Sep 6 2011, 01:27 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Sep 6 2011, 01:21 PM)
li kah shing is just an example lah, what i m trying to say they are hundreds of rich are waiting to buy cheap prop when market crashed..the rich will get richer..
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that's what the whole thing is about. All of these cycle purposely serves the big and smart players.

They buy when it's cheap and they sell when they know the price is not going to sustain anymore.

When the property price suddenly stagnant then you'll know most of the big players has stopped buying and waiting for the bubble to burst..
hazairi
post Sep 6 2011, 04:06 PM

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QUOTE(BboyDora @ Sep 6 2011, 04:00 PM)
Why do you say so? Actually I just wanna buy a house. Not for investment but for marriage.
Plan to buy this year cz worry it will increase next year.

Any advice?
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I made a thread specifically for this issue. Read here:

http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=2023039&hl=

If u plan to buy in Klang Valley, i advise you, now is the wrong time.
hazairi
post Sep 6 2011, 05:07 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearhong @ Sep 6 2011, 04:47 PM)
agreed, sometimes $ cant buy time

the earlier u start ur loan repayment, d earlier u can settle it, perhaps the low BLR + bank attractive mortage rate is one of the points u may want to look at now.
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bought early at 500k with 6.6% interest rate.

3 years later after the bubble burst, the price might be 300k with 8-9% interest rate.

Overall which one is a better value?
hazairi
post Sep 6 2011, 05:27 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearhong @ Sep 6 2011, 05:18 PM)
our gomen respond is always slower pace then reality, they shud have limited foreign purchasing long ago.

For those investor/flippers, they do need to be aware.

However, as for myself, my intention to get a 2nd property is more for long term saving for my child, it will be kept for at least 6-10 yrs, and limited new development within KL area prompted me to get 1 under construction within my preferred area.

Prices of property may be dropped or stagnant soon, i am confident it will not drop continuously but we are aging, time too is $, however, i am not a desperate  investor who simply strech to buy


Added on September 6, 2011, 5:19 pm
Bro, no one can guarantee that price anyway...in particular freehold landed terrace houses, the demand is higher then high rise and higher end Property
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Yeah, no one can guarantee that price, but it's possible.

That FACT has spoken. The fact that our household debt is currently highest in Asia. The fact that BNM is finding a way to reduce lending.

Why must we live in denial?
hazairi
post Sep 8 2011, 11:33 AM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Sep 8 2011, 11:30 AM)
Can somebody explain to me why banks are getting more restrictive?

Property players concerned over new housing loan criteria proposal


Why are they trying to shoot themselves in the foot?
Could it be, it's better to shoot their foot, then  to continue running off a cliff?
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as we all have explained b4, currently Malaysia has a very high household debt. And suprisingly, the highest in Asia, hence the banks are getting more restrictive.

You can see out there there are many housing area being develop. When they can't sell becoz not many can make housing loan, the bubble will burst..
hazairi
post Sep 8 2011, 12:59 PM

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Just look at the facts.

Household debt % againts GDP is at it's highest?

Averagely, ppl are spending more than their income. And when the time comes, when bank started to tighten loans, where are they getting money to buy these houses? Yeah, there are a few uncles who are rich out there, but try to compare majority of the uncles who don't have dat much money VS the development of our housing which is mushrooming with cheap loans.
hazairi
post Sep 8 2011, 08:20 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Sep 8 2011, 01:33 PM)
Household debt is high indeed it's alarming. but effect you or not? The household debt is high because it's conducted across MY. But some ppl here are only taking KV properties to benchmark the overall household debt in our country. You do know that lotta ppl in kampung places are only making rm800 bucks a month right? raw material had increase by 30% since 2 years back houses in kampung now at least rm80k to start off.. some even higher. Don't take loan amacam this guys going to buy a home? KV only have 6m population, the other 80% is for the other state in MY. Do you think a kampung house would really cost that high? So tell me, if there is such situation how not the household debt to increase? Everything is increasing but salary is not of course la naik bang. Go and study the graph. IF salary increase by 20% what is the household debt would be?

If you want to benchmark properties in KV then we should just focus in Klang Valley area. How many peeps are getting below RM2.5k now days? What other debts do you have? It's not only about property. other debts like CAR! Credit Card! Gadgets... All those would need to be factor in.

If government lift the AP going to crony today. You will have enough money for your down payment today. Unnecessary Toll, under table money going out and back to ones pocket. If those issues being tackled properly everyone will have a significant income boost.

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Of course a high household debt affects everyone. When it's high, bank will find a way to reduce lending. The point is, our home prices is increased mainly becoz of cheap loans, not because of our GDP per capita or our disposable income. And keep in mind that around 60% of household debt is property loan. If you take a look on our household debt vs disposable income, u can see it's a worrying trend. When banks are starting to restrict lending, doesn't matter where u live, the demand on housing will definitely lower than usual because of the restrictions. Of course the effect would not be equal in KV and rural.
hazairi
post Sep 12 2011, 06:00 PM

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That fact has already spoken:

1. Currently our household debt is at it's highest. Around 60% of the debt is property debt.
2. Our household debt againts GDP is very high and getting higher.
3. BNM is now on the way to restrict loans.

So, from there you can make a simple conclusion.
1. Most of the home buyers are depending on LOANS.
2. When BNM restrict loans, the demand of this houses will be lower than usual.
3. When demands lower, what will happen?

Simple.
hazairi
post Sep 14 2011, 06:54 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Sep 14 2011, 08:39 AM)
then better "Change" now before too late lor...

Added on September 14, 2011, 8:45 am Property downgrade

...impact had already been felt as most of the property stocks had fallen about 10% to 25% since last month and were now trading sideways.
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...02&sec=business
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Thanks bro.

Property downgrade

PETALING JAYA: UOB Kay Hian has downgraded the local property sector due to slower residential home sales, especially in the second half of the year, coupled with an anticipated tightening of property measures.

The research house, which downgraded the sector from “overweight” to “market weight”, said in its latest note that sales launches by property developer might had slightly dampened with average take-up rates of 50% to 65% compared with 80% to 90% a year ago.

It said there could be cooling measures on the sector, namely the re-introduction of a real property gains tax (RPGT), loan-to-value cap at 70% for second mortgage and mortgage approval criteria based on net salary.

Although these measures might not have been put in place, it added that the impact had already been felt as most of the property stocks had fallen about 10% to 25% since last month and were now trading sideways.

UOB Kay Hian noted that most companies were trading at a 10% to 20% discount to their respective revised net asset value (RNAV). Selectively, the research house said it liked property developers that could still benefit from the rollout of the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) and positive news flow from Iskandar Malaysia.

It is maintaining its “buy” calls on MRCB (target price: RM3.02) and UEM Land (target price: RM2.68). The near-term catalysts for MRCB is the contract awards for phase 1 of River of Life and clinching parcels of RRI Land in Sg Buloh by year-end.


Signs are showing guys. Be prepared.. smile.gif
hazairi
post Sep 14 2011, 08:40 PM

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QUOTE(marcusart @ Sep 14 2011, 08:24 PM)
sign of property price cooling down? hmm.gif
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signs of demand is dwindling.. smile.gif
hazairi
post Sep 14 2011, 10:15 PM

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QUOTE(debtismoney @ Sep 14 2011, 10:12 PM)
I reckon the high price of GOLD and other commodities is not because of "financial engineering", it is because of the value of paper currencies has gone down. As the author says "It is easy to create money, you just print."

Household debts are really worrisome, when this debt bubble implodes, it won't be pretty.

and farmers will be making more money than bankers in the next 10, 20 years.
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Ppl are now rushing to buy Gold because afraid of their money is going to be worthless because of the printing..
hazairi
post Sep 14 2011, 10:23 PM

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QUOTE(debtismoney @ Sep 14 2011, 10:20 PM)
Yup! Gold, Silver and commodities to a certain extent will be the best investment in these coming 5 years, they just can't go to zero.
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But i do believe dat the gold bubble will burst soon.. tongue.gif
hazairi
post Sep 21 2011, 03:44 AM

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Rising household debt

user posted image

user posted image



» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


SOS

Be prepared guys! thumbup.gif
hazairi
post Sep 22 2011, 09:45 PM

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The facts have already spoken and a few are still living in denial..
LOL
hazairi
post Oct 4 2011, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(phoenix69 @ Oct 3 2011, 11:29 PM)
Sigh... For the past 15 years I have been waiting for property price to go down in USJ. It never did. doh.gif
I waited and waited until I am bent and crooked.  cry.gif 
I surrender  notworthy.gif  and finally bought a place there this year .  sweat.gif
Wanted to enjoy having my own house in USJ before I die liao.  tongue.gif
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U bought wrong time bro. The property market here will burst soon..
Cheap sale is otw..
hazairi
post Oct 15 2011, 12:45 PM

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In 2005, Ben Bernanke (Chairmain of federal reserve) said on an interview that the US property price will not and impossible to burst. Look at what happen in the US in 2008? And the same thing will happen here in Malaysia. smile.gif

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