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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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lucerne
post Mar 17 2011, 06:02 PM

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japan, a 3rd largest world econ will definitely need to reconstruction the township within 2-3 years. (jsut like kobe town). japan construction is dead in the past 10-20 years. now will be a big pull for the building materials. it is unlike Aus flood, Indonesia and China ulu ulu 's quake etc
22222222
post Mar 17 2011, 06:43 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Mar 17 2011, 06:02 PM)
japan, a 3rd largest world econ will definitely need to reconstruction the township within 2-3 years. (jsut like kobe town). japan construction is dead in the past 10-20 years. now will be a big pull for the building  materials. it is unlike Aus flood, Indonesia and China ulu ulu 's quake etc
*
how to build, the land was contaminated. sad.gif
sampool
post Mar 17 2011, 10:21 PM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ Mar 17 2011, 07:43 PM)
how to build, the land was contaminated.  sad.gif
*
日本核災難‧準備應對“最糟狀況”‧菅直人憂“東日本全毀”

http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/196924?tid=1

i think jp may let go east side for long term, for the worst case.... to avoid rebuild and can drag the economic never ending recession.


my 2 cent only..

This post has been edited by sampool: Mar 17 2011, 10:28 PM
new[x]
post Mar 17 2011, 11:30 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Feb 22 2011, 03:55 PM)
V1 is giving some interesting information.

Simple check tells me that either people are getting more fed up with property prices and/or speculators are trying harder to defend the high prices.

Time it took for 500 postings in v1:
0-500:      551 days
501-1000:  250 days
1001-1500:  65 days
1501-2000:  45 days
2001-2500:  42 days
*
V2
0-500: 24 days!! rclxms.gif
property101
post Mar 17 2011, 11:33 PM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ Mar 17 2011, 06:43 PM)
how to build, the land was contaminated.  sad.gif
*
find somewhere else to build then smile.gif
lucerne
post Mar 18 2011, 09:15 AM

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no matter how the radiation will subside/(isotop will decap very fast) after a short time period. all buildings including factory need to rebuild again. all business need to back to usual, dun forget Japan is no2 largest global economy , they cant afford to stall eg mitsubishi, sumitomo etc. the demand of building materials will shot up this 1-3 years and force materials price to go up. so be prepare house price will not come down within 3 years. strong yen is good for them as they need to import lot of materials within this rebuild period.
chubbyken
post Mar 18 2011, 09:15 AM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Mar 17 2011, 06:02 PM)
japan, a 3rd largest world econ will definitely need to reconstruction the township within 2-3 years. (jsut like kobe town). japan construction is dead in the past 10-20 years. now will be a big pull for the building  materials. it is unlike Aus flood, Indonesia and China ulu ulu 's quake etc
*
looks like anything also can link to material cost up
might as well venture into raw material business
or maybe always keep long position in raw material futures.
CKHong
post Mar 18 2011, 09:24 AM

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i wonder whats gonna happen,
if they kept on saying " material price will up "
then jack up the property price..
then nobody buy the props..
kochin
post Mar 18 2011, 09:32 AM

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if it was you, would you prefer to stay on after witnessing such disaster/cheating death or would you rather migrate?
if migrate, where do you think japs will go?
1. australia
2. singapore
3. malaysia

don't think they like china, hk, taiwan, korea, right?
CKHong
post Mar 18 2011, 09:40 AM

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i hope they come malaysia..
then my son is going for japanese biggrin.gif
+ we'll have another minority here.. which will be treated same like chinese + india..
berat sama dipikul, ringan sama dijinjing ma.. we need more ppl to share our fate

This post has been edited by CKHong: Mar 18 2011, 09:41 AM
Bobby C
post Mar 18 2011, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Mar 18 2011, 09:32 AM)
if it was you, would you prefer to stay on after witnessing such disaster/cheating death or would you rather migrate?
if migrate, where do you think japs will go?
1. australia
2. singapore
3. malaysia

don't think they like china, hk, taiwan, korea, right?
*
Sorry you have missed the major destination ie Thailand.

Bangkok Sukhumvit Sol??? like mini Japs town, so many Japs open stalls there just to earn a living. Heard nearly 100k Japs. Japs have passed their prime, now they are going down hill. Oz/Sg probably too expensive to many of them. Only those married v family esp Msia/Sg wives will stay put in Msia/Sg. Just look at number of Japs in town and closure of many Jap restaurants cater esp to the Japs. Their number are much lesser now.

Tats personally observation.

22222222
post Mar 18 2011, 10:21 AM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Mar 18 2011, 09:15 AM)
no matter how the radiation will subside/(isotop will decap very fast) after  a short time period. all buildings including factory need to rebuild again. all business need to back to usual, dun forget Japan is no2  largest global economy , they cant afford to stall eg mitsubishi, sumitomo etc. the demand of building materials will shot up this 1-3 years and force materials price to go up. so be prepare house price will not come down within 3 years. strong yen is good for them as they need to import lot of materials within this rebuild period.
*
Haha, r u sure the radiation will subside and land can be reused very fast?

I dun know how is the radiation control and how is going to clear it off, but as ppl like me born in bukit merah area, i know very well that is no so easy to clear it off.

The case of Bukit Merah happen in 198+, and factory close down at 1994 as ppl win the case at high court. Initial gomen claim that all under control, but a lot of expect from japan & german give the different answer, it is exist the comfort level.

From the factory close down until today around 25+ yrs, the clearing of the bahan kimia still in progress, some area still isolate no around ppl to go in.
So i very clear that the japan area which was contaminated cannot be so fast rebuild unless they move to another area.


Yes, definitely the materials price will go up and cause cost of property go up too, but it doesn't mean that property price will go up crazy. The property price is very depending of market demand. If the demand going down due to ppl not afford to purchase high price property, if will cause the property market slow down - stagnant - go down, and property recession will be happen and u will c a lot of abandoned project anywhere, especially the new launched project with sky price.

That's y recently why gomen still maintain the BLR rate and implement the 220k scheme to keep the power to market to continue rolling, even our inflation is high.
ivanachang
post Mar 18 2011, 10:28 AM

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By the look of some of the new property .. i think a lot already "up car"
What do you mean material cost go up when property developers use cheap low quality material to build your house tongue.gif
kochin
post Mar 18 2011, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(ivanachang @ Mar 18 2011, 10:28 AM)
By the look of some of the new property ..  i think a lot already "up car"
What do you mean material cost go up when property developers use cheap low quality material to build your house  tongue.gif
*
that is why one should always review the developer's background.
foresee when any tragedy happens, be it petrol prices up, steel prices up, recession, property prices down or anything, reputabable developer would still finish the project even at a loss!
for those buying from 'untested' developer, pray hard.
don't play play oh icon_idea.gif

real life example:
a contractor 'locked-in' contract at rm1,500/tonne for steel reinforcement. at one time, the steel bars keep increasing prices till rm2,500/tonne with advance cash purchase somemore. concrete prices also went up by about rm30/m3.
the contractor quoted how to proceed work. every kg of steel they tie, they lose rmxx/kg, every concrete m3 they pour, they lose rmxx/m3. it's like pouring $$$ down the drain. but they were binded legally through contract. being contractor also they cannot afford to lose their $$$. so what happens, they appeal to the developer. developer consented to give them market rate to avoid slowdown in progress or late delivery at their own costs (lower profit margin lah).

facts:
contractor won't give a damn on project delivery except maybe big boys like gamuda or wct or ijm or sunway or etc. they have mouths to feed too.
developers also would not give a damn excpt those who are going to be here in the long run like spsetia, suncity, etc.

for those on BBB spree the last few years and project still under construction, you better pray hard that it would not be another platinum damansara lor. wink.gif

This post has been edited by kochin: Mar 18 2011, 10:46 AM
cybermaster98
post Mar 18 2011, 10:44 AM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ Mar 18 2011, 10:21 AM)
Haha, r u sure the radiation will subside and land can be reused very fast?

I dun know how is the radiation control and how is going to clear it off, but as ppl like me born in bukit merah area, i know very well that is no so easy to clear it off.

The case of Bukit Merah happen in 198+, and factory close down at 1994 as ppl win the case at high court. Initial gomen claim that all under control, but a lot of expect from japan & german give the different answer, it is exist the comfort level. From the factory close down until today around 25+ yrs, the clearing of the bahan kimia still in progress, some area still isolate no around ppl to go in.
Not really true. Phase 1 was completed successfully. It involved storage of radioactive materials and other contaminated stuff into approx 85,000 drums in a completely sealed concrete bunker the size of a football field. Phase 2 which is ongoing now, involves taking out all those drums, mixing it with a specially designed compound and casting it into underground bunkers and then putting about 15 layers of specialised engineered compounds on top of this structure. Phase 1 was only a temporary holding bunker which was designed to last about 30 years. Phase 2 is the permanent containment. Its 2 different phases with different purposes. Nothing wrong with either of it.
kochin
post Mar 18 2011, 10:48 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Mar 18 2011, 10:44 AM)
Not really true. Phase 1 was completed successfully. It involved storage of radioactive materials and other contaminated stuff into approx 85,000 drums in a completely sealed concrete bunker the size of a football field. Phase 2 which is ongoing now, involves taking out all those drums, mixing it with a specially designed compound and casting it into underground bunkers and then putting about 15 layers of specialised engineered compounds on top of this structure. Phase 1 was only a temporary holding bunker which was designed to last about 30 years. Phase 2 is the permanent containment. Its 2 different phases with different purposes. Nothing wrong with either of it.
*
but would you like to stay on top of those bunker even if they are selling it cheap?


Added on March 18, 2011, 10:51 am
QUOTE(Bobby C @ Mar 18 2011, 09:48 AM)
Sorry you have missed the major destination ie Thailand.

Bangkok Sukhumvit Sol??? like mini Japs town, so many Japs open stalls there just to earn a living. Heard nearly 100k Japs. Japs have passed their prime, now they are going down hill. Oz/Sg probably too expensive to many of them. Only those married v family esp Msia/Sg wives will stay put in Msia/Sg. Just look at number of Japs in town and closure of many Jap restaurants cater esp to the Japs. Their number are much lesser now.

Tats personally observation.
*
u r absolutely right. thailand is a heaven for most expats. so many of them just retire in pattaya, phuket, krabi, etc.
actually japs in kl are not too bad either. there's at least a few international japanese schools around.
personally i more than welcome them to join the malaysia community.
but if i were in their shoes, with aust, sing, thai to choose from, malaysia might not be my 1st choice.

government should do some massive promotion on inviting them over to 'capitalise' on current situation. go big time on 'malaysia, my 2nd home' or express approval for japan citizens. do you guys agree?

This post has been edited by kochin: Mar 18 2011, 10:51 AM
sampool
post Mar 18 2011, 10:51 AM

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http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/158963
cleo87
post Mar 18 2011, 11:53 AM

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i belong in the so called youngster group. i just graduated and started looking at properties, not to buy now but want to start planning so that i am able to buy in about 3 years to come.

from the looks of things, i doubt i can buy anything.

being an IT graduate means i will be working in town areas like KL. to be able to afford a roof over my head in town is out of the question. currently i live in Rawang and work in Damansara.

everyday pay toll, spend 1hr on the road, petrol also 200+. my car is 18yrs old and i dont plan to change it til it no longer can be revived.
right now houses in Rawang is already 200+, how much do u think it will be when i plan to buy in 3years time?

do i have to move to Tg Malim to be able to afford a house and still work in Damansara?

even with an old car that no longer requires installments, i am finding it just enough to make ends meet. how am i suppose to be earning just under 3k and yet service a 220k loan? lets not even bring up the interest that i have to be paying or the fact that i have to pay for the next 30 years. or the cost of living.


this is unsustainable. the government is not helping anybody with the scheme, only to get those who are bad at maths to commit to something above their means. in about 10yrs time, the majority of the workforce will be facing bankruptcy. im not even considering things like holidays and entertainment. starting a family is more of wishful thinking.

the way things are going, it all seems too bleak. anyone care to shed some light?

just my 2 cents


Added on March 18, 2011, 11:55 amquote
"government should do some massive promotion on inviting them over to 'capitalise' on current situation. go big time on 'malaysia, my 2nd home' or express approval for japan citizens. do you guys agree?"

i think, those are the people who are supporting these speculators, thus keeping property prices high and out of reach from the ppl like me

This post has been edited by cleo87: Mar 18 2011, 11:55 AM
kochin
post Mar 18 2011, 12:32 PM

I just hope I do!
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QUOTE(cleo87 @ Mar 18 2011, 11:53 AM)
i belong in the so called youngster group. i just graduated and started looking at properties, not to buy now but want to start planning so that i am able to buy in about 3 years to come.

from the looks of things, i doubt i can buy anything.

being an IT graduate means i will be working in town areas like KL. to be able to afford a roof over my head in town is out of the question. currently i live in Rawang and work in Damansara.

everyday pay toll, spend 1hr on the road, petrol also 200+. my car is 18yrs old and i dont plan to change it til it no longer can be revived.
right now houses in Rawang is already 200+, how much do u think it will be when i plan to buy in 3years time?

do i have to move to Tg Malim to be able to afford a house and still work in Damansara?

even with an old car that no longer requires installments, i am finding it just enough to make ends meet. how am i suppose to be earning just under 3k and yet service a 220k loan? lets not even bring up the interest that i have to be paying or the fact that i have to pay for the next 30 years. or the cost of living.
this is unsustainable. the government is not helping anybody with the scheme, only to get those who are bad at maths to commit to something above their means. in about 10yrs time, the majority of the workforce will be facing bankruptcy. im not even considering things like holidays and entertainment. starting a family is more of wishful thinking.

the way things are going, it all seems too bleak. anyone care to shed some light?

just my 2 cents


Added on March 18, 2011, 11:55 amquote
"government should do some massive promotion on inviting them over to 'capitalise' on current situation. go big time on 'malaysia, my 2nd home' or express approval for japan citizens. do you guys agree?"

i think, those are the people who are supporting these speculators, thus keeping property prices high and out of reach from the ppl like me
*
the way i see it, you are on the right track to success. don't give up.
your analysis is half correct. you are too pessimistic. you do not expect your salary to remain at this level all the time right? for IT graduates, i think rm4-5k is achievable within 3 years! or 5 years at the max! unless the person is really ..... doh.gif

Q:
1. are you renting in rawang?
2. have you considered renting rooms eg. in Damansara Utama. easily saves you rm100 if you are renting in rawang + transport cost

PS: it was me who quoted the 2nd home thingy!
ivanachang
post Mar 18 2011, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Mar 18 2011, 10:51 AM)
ching chong ning nong tong ... i banana don't know how to read le ... summarise please tongue.gif

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