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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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surf-it
post Mar 1 2011, 07:46 PM

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Right strategy which I have been applying, just buy at anytime.

Bubble lagi best for the big time investor, they buy even more.

So they are buying ALL THE TIME...
AVFAN
post Mar 1 2011, 08:28 PM

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QUOTE(hakon @ Mar 1 2011, 02:58 PM)
a crappy report...

which part you find crappy?

what about this part:
QUOTE
Residential loan approval contracted 3.8 per cent year-on-year in December last year while non-residential loan approval slowed to 30.2 per cent from 47.3 per cent in November.

lucerne
post Mar 1 2011, 08:38 PM

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yes, property loan shrinked every where eg Sg, HK, China etc
so now borrowers are king? can request more goodies..
godutch
post Mar 1 2011, 11:11 PM

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Added on March 1, 2011, 11:12 pm[quote=hakon,Mar 1 2011, 02:58 PM]a crappy report...

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...ns-of-slowdown/

copy-paste:

CODE
KUALA LUMPUR, March 1 — The property market has either gone flat or is showing signs of decline, as indicated by rents and capital values for prime areas.

The market, especially the high-end segment, appears to be feeling the pinch of oversupply and the tightening measures on investment.

Figures in a report by property consultancy DTZ Research released in January shows that rental rates for commercial property were on a downward trend last year dropping from RM6 per square foot (psf) in the second quarter to RM5.97 in the fourth quarter.

residential loan approval contracted 3.8 per cent year-on-year in December last year while non-residential loan approval slowed to 30.2 per cent from 47.3 per cent in November.

*

[/quote]

great news rclxms.gif


Added on March 1, 2011, 11:21 pm[quote=stylophile,Mar 1 2011, 06:09 PM]why are all their surveys based on mont kiara and klcc? astute conservative local investors would never go near any of these places.
*

[/quote]

Hi, when i started looking for a place for myself i thot the same as you. But i now realised that people became greedy when they see the surrounding area's (for example mont kiara, desa park city) condos and houses are selling at very high price, they also jack up their asking price claiming that their properties are near to this high end area.

So, different segment of property prices are correlated.

For example, a so so condo located outside desa parkcity (leasehold ok?) was selling at around RM150K two years ago, now because desa parkcity, asking for RM370K, eventually the low-mid income people are affected as well sad.gif .

another example will be condos near The tropicana mall, suddenly all prices increased by RM100-RM200K sweat.gif

when the property market is hot, property prices of all categories increase, a flat in Sri Damansara that was selling RM80K 1.5 year ago is now asking for RM150K !!! crazy


Added on March 1, 2011, 11:27 pm[quote=UFO-ET,Mar 1 2011, 09:40 AM]
[quote=sampool,Mar 1 2011, 09:21 AM]
the cut down will proceed if majority cannot afffort. i think banking sector will be hurt the most, majority ppl will be happy, me too. tongue.gif

Yeah, let's go to Bahrain to buy properties rclxms.gif
*

[/quote]


Bharain got protests wo hmm.gif

some economists said China will now be more serious to tackle its overheated property market although it means to tolerate a slower growth rate, due to fear that the unrest in the middle east as well as north africa will spread over, which is still under control at the moment, if it does spread....

This post has been edited by godutch: Mar 1 2011, 11:27 PM
sulifeisgreat
post Mar 1 2011, 11:31 PM

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how long it took to get tat report out? some developers had alredi been giving freebies many moons ago doh.gif
tat itself was a sign of mini desperation, but most units sold out very fast, so semuanya ok
hearing about inflation is one thing, doing something about it is another

even tho usd is dropping due to qe, china stil put hope on usa, if anything really bad happens, usa will alwiz be the safe haven
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...1499039068.html
if u wan the inflation party to end, wait usa increase int rate, since no signs yet, means party still on brows.gif
attahun
post Mar 2 2011, 09:28 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 1 2011, 08:28 PM)
which part you find crappy?

what about this part:
*
crappy coz the expected segment to be affected only the high end condos?
AVFAN
post Mar 2 2011, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(attahun @ Mar 2 2011, 09:28 AM)
crappy coz the expected segment to be affected only the high end condos?
*
with no shortage of supply of highrise, it will be tough. mont kiara e.g., it is well known 2-3 years ago that another 10,000 odd units will come onstream about now. it is also well known rental for high end highrise has been soft for the last few years - since big foreign cos. and expats are going and gomen has done little to bring them back. for own stay most people still prefer houses as shown in one recent thread poll here. when prices are acceptable, locals will buy to stay. can see some already with the older ones in mk.

now, more disturbing is... not unexpected and again it is well known, many new shopping malls coming this year, new year, next next year. i find it scary to read some people saying residential play is over, now buy commercial! rolleyes.gif

QUOTE
Office occupancy rates also fell from 87.9 per cent in the second quarter to 86.4 per cent in the fourth quarter.

“The outlook for the (commerical property) sector is expected to remain soft in the next few years as it will take time to increase demand with these new initiatives while there is a substantial amount of new supply, most of which is of a speculative nature,” said the DTZ report.


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 2 2011, 11:41 AM
CKHong
post Mar 2 2011, 12:27 PM

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i agreed that many new shopping malls coming..
too much ! currently stayin at kelana jaya.. they build shopping mall like no tomorrow
ronn77
post Mar 2 2011, 12:47 PM

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I can see that many ppls buying commercial properties which costs millions like eating peanuts. To my understanding most of them are those greedy investors that taking loan like 90% with the hopes someone could take their unit for rental to offset the loan payment. Imagine if one day the place is over-supply with tons of shoplots which they unable to rent out, eventually they been forced to sell it off even at losses and property prices will crashed in couple of years if my study serves me right.
AVFAN
post Mar 2 2011, 01:04 PM

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QUOTE(ronn77 @ Mar 2 2011, 12:47 PM)
I can see that many ppls buying commercial properties which costs millions like eating peanuts. To my understanding most of them are those greedy investors that taking loan like 90% with the hopes someone could take their unit for rental to offset the loan payment. Imagine if one day the place is over-supply with tons of shoplots which they unable to rent out, eventually they been forced to sell it off even at losses and property prices will crashed in couple of years if my study serves me right.
*
the latest indication says that day is not so far away. just think about this - how often do each of us eat drink and shop in those malls where retailers have to charge RM8-10 for a bowl of curry mee (chicken strips only)? and imagine there are half a dozen of them for you to go to when you want to. even now, can see the the thinspreading of the crowd in 1u-ikano-curve-giza.. the crowd that once thronged in 1 and only 1u in the area.

i'm of the view house prices will not drop before offices, shoplots, highend highrise, midend highrise go on firesale first - in that order.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 2 2011, 01:07 PM
IMHO
post Mar 2 2011, 01:06 PM

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Hi everyone,
Buying a prop is a long term investment, lately the prices have spiraled so high bcos of speculators and buyers who are “Kiasu”
No hard fact to buying, if for own use, buy on location and affordability. ( must have rserve for instalment for 1yr if out of job). Banks ask u to sign PA with loan, the moment u can’t service loan, yr prop is on the auction table. And when that happens all is lost.

Back in 2004, young couples buy into BU hses RM550-650K+, both have to combine income to survive. As time goes family add on and expenses increase. So stressed out living in upscale community (but got face..mah). Now increase RM750~850k but cannot cashout unless can afford another unit (yr best guess) or down-size(more cramp). So can’t benefit right now. Maybe later but with inflation everything so expensive.

When u buy expensive how much more do u expect it to increase? And if it does, can you cash-in and buy another? Unless u strike it rich or u downsize.
Therefore, buy slightly below yr capacity, u can save some and invest in next prop. Make such u have savings for rainy days (if out of job 6-12mths instalment, medical bills , insurance,etc,.)

Buy smart – developers are laughing to the bank and u can’t stop this unless u r smart and speculators are wiped-out . So the next best thing, be knowlegable.

Buying Bench mark (depand on location, eg here is puchong area)–
a) landed prop – land area cost RM 80-120psf (leasehold)
RM 120-180psf (freehold)
build-up cost RM 150-250psf(depend on layout &
quality of finishes)

b) high-rise prop – build-up mid-cost RM150 – 350psf(freehold) depend
of common area and facilities provided.
Critical would be parking facility.

Hope this info can help some.

sulifeisgreat
post Mar 2 2011, 01:24 PM

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y wan to wipe out speculators? hmm.gif
we dun wan put moolah in fd earn peanuts, so we put moolah to hard work when u guys were wetting pants
coz recession is alwiz an opportunity

now the warren buffet wanna use his elephant gun
2 years ago, we speculators alredi using all our gun + water gun liao to buy, buy & buy drool.gif
so now u guys late to the party & wanna blame speculators? doh.gif



yoki
post Mar 2 2011, 01:25 PM

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so far..we have not seen a slow down or dip price yet...
pple now even looking at rawang and kajang already..!!
later its gonna be Sepang or Nilai or bukit beruntung

This post has been edited by yoki: Mar 2 2011, 01:26 PM
CKHong
post Mar 2 2011, 01:39 PM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Mar 2 2011, 01:24 PM)
y wan to wipe out speculators?  hmm.gif
we dun wan put moolah in fd earn peanuts, so we put moolah to hard work when u guys were wetting pants
coz recession is alwiz an opportunity

now the warren buffet wanna use his elephant gun
2 years ago, we speculators alredi using all our gun + water gun liao to buy, buy & buy  drool.gif
so now u guys late to the party & wanna blame speculators?  doh.gif
*
what do u mean by "late to the party" ?
we're not trying to join the speculators group tongue.gif
but still.. not my intention to wipe out speculators..
we need them.. cus they help us to push the economy..
so when bubble come.. half of them will like cry.gif [half yeah.. not all.. better state out if not later some will say " CASH RICH ONE WILL SURVIVE "]
then all of us [poor ppl] will like rclxms.gif
TheDoer
post Mar 2 2011, 01:47 PM

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yes, I also feel very irked by that statement. As I've said before, they've rushed to the life boats first, and now teasing us, aboard them.

There is nothing proud or smart, about being kiasu.

These are the same people who do not know how to line up at the casher. Their reason: You slow, nasib lah.

This post has been edited by TheDoer: Mar 2 2011, 01:48 PM
godutch
post Mar 2 2011, 01:54 PM

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http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...24&sec=business

Residential property prices likely to stay flat


PETALING JAYA: Property prices of the local residential sub-sector are expected to be flat in the next few months as fears of rising oil prices due to the political unrest in the Middle East may damper investor and buyer confidence.

Khong & Jaafar Sdn Bhd managing director Elvin Fernandez said the local residential sub-sector would not see “insane run-ups” in prices like last year due to both global and local factors.

“Stock markets in the region have not been on the run-up. The uncertainty in oil prices and measures taken by Bank Negara to curb rising property prices will see (prices) within the local residential property sector holding,” he said when contacted by StarBiz yesterday.

Fernandez said the local residential sub-sector experienced “insane run-ups” in prices towards the second half of 2010 but, in light of both local and foreign events, the run-up in prices “will be arrested.”

Henry Butcher Malaysia Sdn Bhd chief operating officer Tang Chee Meng said he expected prices of the residential sub-sector to be stable in the next three to six months.

“Property prices won't go up as crazily as it did last year,” he said.

There would still be interest for landed properties and high-rise developments would experience a bigger slowdown, he said, adding that if oil prices shot up, people might put off property investment.

In its report, DTZ said that to push sales, developers were now selling smaller units in line with market demand, especially aiming at the investment segment of the market which was still relatively strong.

“Capital values are stable in most locations with an average of RM599 per sq ft, but rental rates continue to experience deterioration as new completions add competitive pressures to existing projects,” it said.

Tang also said if oil prices shot up, people might put off property investment.


SUSUFO-ET
post Mar 2 2011, 02:03 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Mar 2 2011, 01:39 PM)
what do u mean by "late to the party" ?
we're not trying to join the speculators group  tongue.gif
but still.. not my intention to wipe out speculators..
we need them.. cus they help us to push the economy..
so when bubble come.. half of them will like  cry.gif  [half yeah.. not all.. better state out if not later some will say " CASH RICH ONE WILL SURVIVE "]
then all of us [poor ppl] will like  rclxms.gif
*
This bubble talk tread will go on and go on for the next 50 years, believe me...
Developers "have" to build new hse / condo / shops / retails lot / malls / factories, otherwise they kenot survive, so the number of houses in urban area will keep increasing and the density is rising too, the supply of residential properties is to cope with the migrants fr rural area to urban city, we dun hv a real statistic (like in China) to show how great is the migration, thus it is quite hard to judge whether it is over supply or vice versa

but I am pretty sure Malaysia's urbanization is very serious, is based on 4 reasons :-
1. Our gomen has no ability to develop rural or sub-urban areas (it has been proved since independent)
2. Majority young Chinese are going to 3 cities 1. Penang Island 2. KV 3. Singapore
3. No Bullet train (forever no I think), a complete transportation system like bullet train is a way to divert the heavy population (Japan people stay 200KM++ away fr work place, but they need 1 hr++ bullet train time)
4. Job opportunities mostly in urban area

p/s : our housing statistic announcement every year tak boleh pakai punya rclxub.gif


sampool
post Mar 2 2011, 02:04 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Mar 2 2011, 02:54 PM)
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...24&sec=business

Residential property prices likely to stay flat
PETALING JAYA: Property prices of the local residential sub-sector are expected to be flat in the next few months as fears of rising oil prices due to the political unrest in the Middle East may damper investor and buyer confidence.

Khong & Jaafar Sdn Bhd managing director Elvin Fernandez said the local residential sub-sector would not see “insane run-ups” in prices like last year due to both global and local factors.

“Stock markets in the region have not been on the run-up. The uncertainty in oil prices and measures taken by Bank Negara to curb rising property prices will see (prices) within the local residential property sector holding,” he said when contacted by StarBiz yesterday.

Fernandez said the local residential sub-sector experienced “insane run-ups” in prices towards the second half of 2010 but, in light of both local and foreign events, the run-up in prices “will be arrested.”

Henry Butcher Malaysia Sdn Bhd chief operating officer Tang Chee Meng said he expected prices of the residential sub-sector to be stable in the next three to six months.

“Property prices won't go up as crazily as it did last year,” he said.

There would still be interest for landed properties and high-rise developments would experience a bigger slowdown, he said, adding that if oil prices shot up, people might put off property investment.

In its report, DTZ said that to push sales, developers were now selling smaller units in line with market demand, especially aiming at the investment segment of the market which was still relatively strong.

“Capital values are stable in most locations with an average of RM599 per sq ft, but rental rates continue to experience deterioration as new completions add competitive pressures to existing projects,” it said.

Tang also said if oil prices shot up, people might put off property investment.
*
thumbup.gif $100 up up....to $150... let them sweat.gif cry.gif

This post has been edited by sampool: Mar 2 2011, 02:05 PM
IMHO
post Mar 2 2011, 02:38 PM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Mar 2 2011, 01:24 PM)
y wan to wipe out speculators?  hmm.gif
we dun wan put moolah in fd earn peanuts, so we put moolah to hard work when u guys were wetting pants
coz recession is alwiz an opportunity

now the warren buffet wanna use his elephant gun
2 years ago, we speculators alredi using all our gun + water gun liao to buy, buy & buy  drool.gif
so now u guys late to the party & wanna blame speculators?  doh.gif
*
no lah bro..not wipe them out , just to comment only cos not possible ... blush.gif
they play a big part in price increase lor... whistling.gif

like i said buy cos u need, invest when u can ....but buy/invest smart lor. icon_idea.gif

u remember b4 1997 property/ stock mrket crush, u talk to everone is into
stock market ..wah so easy make money, restaurant business oso so good.

bcos over-play oredi rclxub.gif
chubbyken
post Mar 2 2011, 02:43 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Mar 2 2011, 02:03 PM)
the supply of residential properties is to cope with the migrants fr rural area to urban city,


i tot chinese become less and less % in urban since dont want to get maaried or hv childred?


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