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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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vectorian
post Jan 19 2011, 03:16 PM

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I have also been monitoring 3 condos I am keen to purchase to stay. Sadly the prices have been climbing steadily over the past 3mths or so. I did check with 2 friends in the Banking industry and it seems I have to fork out a whopping 23% on the downpayment based on their valuation as compared to the selling price.

Since I am in no hurry... I shall wait and see how things pan out by next year or 2013.
attahun
post Jan 19 2011, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(vectorian @ Jan 19 2011, 03:16 PM)
I have also been monitoring 3 condos I am keen to purchase to stay. Sadly the prices have been climbing steadily over the past 3mths or so. I did check with 2 friends in the Banking industry and it seems I have to fork out a whopping 23% on the downpayment based on their valuation as compared to the selling price.

Since I am in no hurry... I shall wait and see how things pan out by next year or 2013.
*
haha same here bro! cheers and good luck to us... flex.gif
CKHong
post Jan 19 2011, 03:50 PM

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QUOTE(attahun @ Jan 19 2011, 03:27 PM)
haha same here bro! cheers and good luck to us... flex.gif
*
same same.. how are we going to get a house when the seller trying to sell the house higher than the market value ?
we have to fork our at least 20~40k .. not yet include the 10% for that properties..
its like we have to fork out 10% of the properties + 20~40k price jacked up by the seller.. sad.gif
was looking on subsale as well...
groggy
post Jan 19 2011, 04:08 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Jan 19 2011, 03:50 PM)
same same.. how are we going to get a house when the seller trying to sell the house higher than the market value ?
we have to fork our at least 20~40k .. not yet include the 10% for that properties..
its like we have to fork out 10% of the properties + 20~40k price jacked up by the seller..  sad.gif
was looking on subsale as well...
*
it is not jacked up by seller. seller naturally demand high price. the valuer is lagging behind the market to protect the banks. valuer value lower does not mean that is the market value
Jason
post Jan 19 2011, 04:14 PM

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QUOTE(groggy @ Jan 19 2011, 04:08 PM)
it is not jacked up by seller. seller naturally demand high price. the valuer is lagging behind the market to protect the banks. valuer value lower does not mean that is the market value
*
seller can demand whatever price they want, it doesn't reflect market price.
market price is not determined by asking prices.

valuer value lower does not mean it is the market price as well, but it is definitely a "safe" benchmark. if you pay at valuation price or below valuation price, consider it a fair trade or a good deal, if its above valuation price..then tread with caution...
WannaGetBuffed
post Jan 19 2011, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(ahchaikia @ Jan 19 2011, 01:53 AM)
So now is looking at GE la? But when is it? Any time this year?
But if there really a correction after GE, from the way i see it now, a correction only possible by a more strict regulation have been introduce to control the market.
So what affordable now can become unaffordable after GE, possible become impossible.
For example, all house need down payment 30%.
Then by that time you will also be effected by the regulation itself and cannot manage to own a property.
The regulation itself is aim to cool down the market, not invite more severe buy mode after the correction.
If everybody waiting for correction to happen, then after it happen, all people rush in to buy again.
Then there will be another price hike.
That is totally not contribute to price control, but encouraging another round of BBB mode.
*
It's already cooling down slowly.

1. Rental yield unable to catch up with property price.
2. Not enough expats to rent high end units.
3. Property values are higher than bank values, thus making selling props harder (LTV + under valued)
4. More projects and endless supply coming in (esp so called MK and KLCC area until 2015)

BBB mode will only continue for the rich, while the middle and low income will monitor and watch. This trend will continue until a point where the rich will no longer able to suck up so many units, and the market stagnant for a time. It only needs to take a little "trigger" to mess up the trend. Check on the transactions made after the LTV for sub-sale props. Thats why investors now whack developers units instead of sub-sale. Because it's no point to buy overvalued props, and rental yield can't cover. Pushing up the price further will only draw more hopeful buyers away.


Jason
post Jan 19 2011, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ Jan 19 2011, 04:28 PM)
It's already cooling down slowly.

1. Rental yield unable to catch up with property price.
2. Not enough expats to rent high end units.
3. Property values are higher than bank values, thus making selling props harder (LTV + under valued)
4. More projects and endless supply coming in (esp so called MK and KLCC area until 2015)

BBB mode will only continue for the rich, while the middle and low income will monitor and watch. This trend will continue until a point where the rich will no longer able to suck up so many units, and the market stagnant for a time. It only needs to take a little "trigger" to mess up the trend. Check on the transactions made after the LTV for sub-sale props. Thats why investors now whack developers units instead of sub-sale. Because it's no point to buy overvalued props, and rental yield can't cover. Pushing up the price further will only draw more hopeful buyers away.
*
good points. but isn't developer units also overpriced? with the exception of the recent Summer Suites by Sunrise.
Look at Eve Suites and the asking price versus the location.
CKHong
post Jan 19 2011, 05:54 PM

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QUOTE(Jason @ Jan 19 2011, 04:33 PM)
good points. but isn't developer units also overpriced? with the exception of the recent Summer Suites by Sunrise.
Look at Eve Suites and the asking price versus the location.
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Agreed.. new unit launch.. the price is like rclxub.gif
thats why we're looking on subsale.. old condo.. can't even afford to buy a new one..
thanks to developer..
AVFAN
post Jan 19 2011, 07:19 PM

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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ Jan 19 2011, 04:28 PM)
BBB mode will only continue for the rich, while the middle and low income will monitor and watch. This trend will continue until a point where the rich will no longer able to suck up so many units, and the market stagnant for a time. It only needs to take a little "trigger" to mess up the trend. Check on the transactions made after the LTV for sub-sale props. Thats why investors now whack developers units instead of sub-sale. Because it's no point to buy overvalued props, and rental yield can't cover. Pushing up the price further will only draw more hopeful buyers away.
*
think so. wait till fuel and food prices go up 30% in the next 2 years. see if people will buy high price homes or pay high rentals or stick to basics like food, utilities, transportation, etc.. food will be esp tricky since here, little food production, only build-build-build. and not production factories.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...-modest-growth/
attahun
post Jan 19 2011, 07:22 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Jan 19 2011, 05:54 PM)
Agreed.. new unit launch.. the price is like  rclxub.gif
thats why we're looking on subsale.. old condo.. can't even afford to buy a new one..
thanks to developer..
*
+1...greedy developer and agents are the reason the sudden price hike..(hahaha blame on other people coz own self cannot afford tongue.gif )


chunho01
post Jan 19 2011, 07:42 PM

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QUOTE(Jason @ Jan 19 2011, 04:14 PM)
seller can demand whatever price they want, it doesn't reflect market price.
market price is not determined by asking prices.

valuer value lower does not mean it is the market price as well, but it is definitely a "safe" benchmark. if you pay at valuation price or below valuation price, consider it a fair trade or a good deal, if its above valuation price..then tread with caution...
*
Agreed. Nowadays many sellers are pushing the limits while its still Seller's Market. However, smart sellers will price their property at a higher price, yet still reasonably below the rest, making theirs the first to be sold. For me, no point asking for lots of money when there're nobody that can afford it. There are not many stupid rich people around that will blindly buy overpriced properties. Just look at the comments posted here, most of the middle class people said things like "I'll see how it goes", "I want to buy that place to stay, but cannot afford it"
WannaGetBuffed
post Jan 19 2011, 08:00 PM

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QUOTE(Jason @ Jan 19 2011, 04:33 PM)
good points. but isn't developer units also overpriced? with the exception of the recent Summer Suites by Sunrise.
Look at Eve Suites and the asking price versus the location.
*
QUOTE(CKHong @ Jan 19 2011, 05:54 PM)
Agreed.. new unit launch.. the price is like  rclxub.gif
thats why we're looking on subsale.. old condo.. can't even afford to buy a new one..
thanks to developer..
*
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 19 2011, 07:19 PM)
think so. wait till fuel and food prices go up 30% in the next 2 years. see if people will buy high price homes or pay high rentals or stick to basics like food, utilities, transportation, etc.. food will be esp tricky since here, little food production, only build-build-build. and not production factories.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...-modest-growth/
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QUOTE(attahun @ Jan 19 2011, 07:22 PM)
+1...greedy developer and agents are the reason the sudden price hike..(hahaha blame on other people coz own self cannot afford tongue.gif )
*
The reason why developer units are popular is because most of them offer free SPA, loan and DIBS. That means you pratically only need to pay 10% to make a quick buck. This is flippers favourite scheme. For sub-sale, you need to fork out SPA and loan. The higher the value, the more you have to pay. A 500k cost you only 50k for downpayment. Even some developers offers 5% off, that means you only need 25k. But to buy sub-sale with the same amount, you need to pay 50k (10%) + the difference between bank valuation (another 5-10%) + SPA (15-17k) + Loan Agreement (5-7k).

Don't need a genius to figure out which is better bet to make a quick buck. Same modus operandi is used by all developers and phase by phase it's increasing. If you are a developer, wouldn't you do the same? Max out the profit before the shit hits the fan.

Since developer is doing this MO, sub-sale of the units cannot be transacted at the same price due to the reasons above, because it doesn't make sense to buy a sub-sale unit! Since there is no demand, it will slowly goes until the total overall cost is on par with the selling price.

For Example, I bought a house at 688k in phase 3. The first phase was sold at 480k. The second phase was sold at 550k. When the phase 3 launched, both asking price for 1st and 2nd jumped to 650k. I thought about it, and I decided to go for phase 3 because I am not in a hurry to own a house. Common sense will tell you that it is not worth it to get the 1st and 2nd phase because on top of the asking price, you need to top up a lot of other fees.

So how to fix these gridlock? Maybe an expert can share thier optimism on this.


Added on January 19, 2011, 8:20 pm
QUOTE(chunho01 @ Jan 19 2011, 07:42 PM)
Agreed. Nowadays many sellers are pushing the limits while its still Seller's Market. However, smart sellers will price their property at a higher price, yet still reasonably below the rest, making theirs the first to be sold. For me, no point asking for lots of money when there're nobody that can afford it. There are not many stupid rich people around that will blindly buy overpriced properties. Just look at the comments posted here, most of the middle class people said things like "I'll see how it goes", "I want to buy that place to stay, but cannot afford it"
*
It's not sellers market anymore, unless it is popular locations or units that command high rental yield. I've been actively looking for props since sep 2010 last year, and did a lot of research before the LTV came about. And I intended to get a unit in MK. Particularly is because my colleague got a unit there. So I just went and take a look, called a few agents to view. I sat my eyes on a unit that was selling for 550k. Others are asking for 600k and above. Of course, this is a low floor but I'm taking it for investment, so the cheaper, the better. This process went on for like 1 month because of comparison and a lot of thinking.

During this time, the agents kept promoting saying how good is the unit, bla bla bla good rental yield and all. Fine, I will invest in it. So i wrote a cheque, and the agent want it quick because she told me there is another buyer offering at 560k. Ok, wrote it to her etc. Then the funny request came. The seller told the agent off why isn't she protecting the seller's interst. I asked, what kind of interest? If my loan agreement does not go through, he will eat up my booking fee (3% which is 16.5k). The reason was I was wasting the seller's time if my loan can't get through.

Now who in the world which has a sound mind will agree to those kind of agreement? We're talking about MK. If it was 10 years ago when it was booming, hell yeah I will take that kind of risk. Now? Sorry lah, I will take my $ somewhere else. So I told the agent, sorry which she understands. So after a week, agent contacted me, "Sir, the seller said he will not eat up ur booking fees if you sign the S&P within 14 days". I told her, sorry I don't deal with sellers like this. Asking too much, if I sign S&P sure got some other crazy request comes later on.

Until today, I still get calls from a lot agents if I would like to view units in MK. I hope the ETP will bring in more expats here.

Oh, btw I don't know if the unit was sold off, but I saw it was still advertised in iprop a week ago. Good for the next buyer if he finds it and agrees to the sellers term smile.gif Cheers

This post has been edited by WannaGetBuffed: Jan 19 2011, 08:27 PM
KVReninem
post Jan 19 2011, 11:21 PM

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QUOTE(edwardsiow @ Jan 19 2011, 12:58 PM)
High-end condo owners caught with rents down

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...ith-rents-down/

First sign of property bubble going to burst....
*
agree. Let it be! let it be! rclxm9.gif


Added on January 19, 2011, 11:41 pm
QUOTE(attahun @ Jan 19 2011, 03:42 PM)
niceeee....  hmm.gif

i wouldn't put it as bubble burst but rather a sign that the property market needs to really cool down and re-evaluate. I notice more and more auction signs are put up around TTDI and Mont Kiara, about time for the government to do something about the property market. to me it shows that the speculations has taken a new turn and hopefully the price may lower down a whole lot..

all in all, just hope for a more affordable place to call 'my house'.  tongue.gif
*
the more govt intervene, the more it will be bad. I will like to see market to do the serious correction.

Just study Australia houses: why its so overpriced for a timber stud house. (negative gearing) > they cant do much besides going uptrend, good but long term damaging mode. It protect seller but disadvantage for buyer as its exponential high. Its more or less you are paying someone`s old age living.


QUOTE(vectorian @ Jan 19 2011, 04:16 PM)
I have also been monitoring 3 condos I am keen to purchase to stay. Sadly the prices have been climbing steadily over the past 3mths or so. I did check with 2 friends in the Banking industry and it seems I have to fork out a whopping 23% on the downpayment based on their valuation as compared to the selling price.

Since I am in no hurry... I shall wait and see how things pan out by next year or 2013.
*
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 19 2011, 08:19 PM)
think so. wait till fuel and food prices go up 30% in the next 2 years. see if people will buy high price homes or pay high rentals or stick to basics like food, utilities, transportation, etc.. food will be esp tricky since here, little food production, only build-build-build. and not production factories.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...-modest-growth/
*
Utilities services cost had gone up alot compare 10 years ago.
If you do monitor, Cost of living gone up quite alot & I wonder, how long will it play.

This post has been edited by KVReninem: Jan 19 2011, 11:42 PM
chubbyken
post Jan 20 2011, 09:54 AM

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QUOTE(attahun @ Jan 19 2011, 07:22 PM)
+1...greedy developer and agents are the reason the sudden price hike..(hahaha blame on other people coz own self cannot afford tongue.gif )
*
i think since developers have taken the advantage to jack up the price so high,
there will be not much benefit or gain left for flippers???
well it is just my opinion...
still trying to figure out how to own a new house that not so far from KL city working place...
a bit worry about the transportation and petro spent if stay too far from KLCC like Cyberjaya
and agree subsale with >10% down payment + legal fees, etc really cannot tahan
not to mention the higher than valuation seeling price...


trifecta
post Jan 20 2011, 01:08 PM

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When it drops, the first casualties are the flippers of KLCC & Mon Kiara.
If they're a whale, it will only be a scratch, if they're Joe/Jane Public who just joint the flipping bandwagon, they might end up in a financial ICU.

This post has been edited by trifecta: Jan 20 2011, 01:08 PM
eXTaTine
post Jan 20 2011, 01:15 PM

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QUOTE(trifecta @ Jan 20 2011, 01:08 PM)
When it drops, the first casualties are the flippers of KLCC & Mon Kiara.
If they're a whale, it will only be a scratch, if they're Joe/Jane Public who just joint the flipping bandwagon, they might end up in a financial ICU.
*
Disagree with you on this, as KLCC and Mont Kiara have already burst 2 years ago. If anything bursts, it will be the rest of the Klang Valley....which these days seem to cost more than Mont Kiara and sometimes even more than KLCC!! (eg. CentreStage vs. Summer Suites)
cranx
post Jan 20 2011, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(eXTaTine @ Jan 20 2011, 01:15 PM)
Disagree with you on this, as KLCC and Mont Kiara have already burst 2 years ago. If anything bursts, it will be the rest of the Klang Valley....which these days seem to cost more than Mont Kiara and sometimes even more than KLCC!! (eg. CentreStage vs. Summer Suites)
*
Mont Kiara which was the high class area in the past has became reasonably priced now.
AVFAN
post Jan 20 2011, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 20 2011, 01:20 PM)
Mont Kiara which was the high class area in the past has became reasonably priced now.
*
mk has gone from high end-high expat rental enclave to a good mix with locals buying for own stay.
oversupply, bad traffic, some condos getting old, high rent expats facing extinction in the country are the reasons.
prices and rentals dropped significantly for all older ones, newer ones still OK.
many locals now buying for own stay.
since int'l school, nightlife etc. is very much alive there, this place will live, go on fine.
a lot more locals and maybe 3-4k rental foreigners eventually.
anyone still hoping to rent to 10k gweilos better do some research.
eXTaTine
post Jan 20 2011, 02:59 PM

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Think Mont Kiara these days is quite a nice place to live in, if don't mind older condos (but well maintained) slightly over 400k can get one...
value_investor
post Jan 20 2011, 05:11 PM

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QUOTE(eXTaTine @ Jan 20 2011, 01:15 PM)
Disagree with you on this, as KLCC and Mont Kiara have already burst 2 years ago. If anything bursts, it will be the rest of the Klang Valley....which these days seem to cost more than Mont Kiara and sometimes even more than KLCC!! (eg. CentreStage vs. Summer Suites)
*
Not sure about MK, but KLCC bubble has definitely burst since the 2008 global financial crisis. Now prices are slowly picking up, not recovering from the peak of RM1800 - RM2200 psf though.

I agree that the bubbles we're talking about nowadays are those outside MK and KLCC.

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