Mentelis insisting all is well is a key feature of MY politik.
House price up 3%, inflation 1.9%.
Next they'll find nos. to say income rose 15% in 1 year due to etp&nep, corridors&verandahs.
If not this way, how to build 100s tower, nuclear plant and send space tourists.

Logically, that would imply those soldouts will stand a better chance than those slow moving ones when the shit hits the fan.
So, if somebody says this is so good, so cheap, plenty to choose from - bettter be careful lor!

Developers raising price for unsold units after VP is common. Some developers even raise price DURING the construction period for any available unit. The profit made goes into the co. accounts. Normal biz.

Developer staff are eligible to buy every 1, 2 or 3 years - at discount. Big shots and their connected frens can buy more. Politicans too. Some projects are 90% booked at launch. This is not illegal. It is how many people working in this industry have made millions within the last 2 years.

Who pays for it in the end?

Being blindly pessimistic or being an eternal optimist is not helpful. There are good reports and data to read...

There is no denying that household debt and housing debt has shot up very high. Are incomes rising fast? Where is gdp growth coming from? Not big exports income or foreign money coming in, but mainly consumer spending! People are spending and speculating with a lot of debt. Pray hard for 2nd and 3rd layers of bigger debt to absorb this first layer!

Just think about this - how is it possible all of a sudden without little else happening, mediocre props look good, so many can pay 50% more? Or is it just speculative forces, with one layer of debt piling on another. Some props will hold out better than others, of course. Devlprs, banks and loyars surely making a killing now - they are the thrilled by how greedy everyone is. The poor guy who havn't bought his house is not thrilled at all.

Every time this thing about KL or Kv prop prices come up, people say very chip, will go up and up, compare with London, spore, heongkong...

Why never compare with jakarta, manila, hanoi...?

Isn't kl starting to look more like them in terms of stagnant wages, gdp per capita, productivity, foreign inv??

1. The rich keeps buying properties since there is little else to put the $.
2. The privileged and/or greedy abuses everything to get discounts, bestest units and sell them before completion.
3. The speculator says price can never come down.
4. The middle class becomes a slave to the bank for an upgraded house or stay put where he/she is.
5. The poor gives up buying a home.
6. The landlords attempt to raise rental but fail since there are plenty of vacant homes, few highly paid expats.
7. People start to rent cheap than buy expensive.
8. Highly leveraged speculators can't hold, dump.
9. Prices fall or stagnate.
10. "I told you".

Feeling like Donald Trump or Warren Buffet? Dun forget there was a guy called Charles Ponzi building debt pyramids.

Before 1998 crash, some tot they were gods since everything they touched turned to gold. Some then turned into ashes.

$ dun fall from sky, so do be careful how much you listen to X and Y and put your $...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 9 2010, 10:28 PM

think so... ridiculous to think dev can forever raise price like mad and so many simply buy hoping to fart tart.

the $ greed may have blinded some to see mediocre homes in poor locations from risky dev as great bets.

other than those fully prepared to pay instalment and live there, better be very careful now.

It wasn't like that until 1-1.5 yrs ago. All the same ingredients were here. Maybe with loan70%, less gorengers now.

Those who goreng stocks T+3, margin accounts, etc. will fully understand it...

a. borrow 90-95% loan: leveraged margin accounts
b. sell right after booking: daily contra, lowest transaction costs
c. sell before completion, no int charged for DIBS: contra T+3 (ok, 2-3 yrs instead of 3 days),
d. sell after vp, start pay instalment: stock pick up, wait for right time to sell
e. sell at loss, can't pay instalment: cut loss, margin account busted
f. prime areas first, then rawang, kajang, port klang: blue chips first, then 2nd liners, 3rd liners


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 13 2010, 12:01 PM

i can agree if you mean MYsians of chinese heritage in MY.

look at Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore - did they not create the green pastures you described?

there are stories that many many years ago, some people in asia tried to buy a piece of land in Borneo to create one more green pasture, got shut down...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 18 2010, 12:16 AM

everyone incl tax expert and ahsohs now also expert in predicting bubble or no bubble.

actually, nothing in mysia ever goes "pop"; always slowly; not prices everywhere drop 30% in a month or two...

bubble probably mean generally:

. overall prices will stop rising, stagnate, plus minus 10%.
. developers can't sell at latest launches, need to give rebates, freebies, slow or stop launching more
. some areas will see a bigger impact, some will have no impact
. some type of props will see bigger impact, others less
. speculators holding too many may get into trouble
. genuine homebuyers get a better choice when buying, not necessarily at deep discount

good overall if some correction - homeseekers need not frustrate trying to buy a home; speculators need to back off and go goreng something else.

gomen need to stop relying on building building building to prop economy which encourages the banks and developers to suck people dry.

It's in the majority's interest not to see home prices go up so high as to hurt genuine house buyers while the greedy reap obscene profits.
However, we shoul not lose sight that if there is too much control with little or no speculation or investors (there is only a fine line between the 2), it will not be good as well. Ownership of homes in socialist and communist states are tightly controlled, prices do not move much.

The trouble with MY is actually 2 fold: stagnant low income for the majority and lack of investment opportunities.
If incomes are rising like in other well positioned countries, rising home prices is just a part of the growing economy.
If wages are low, rising food and petrol prices alone will kill the purchasing power of stagnant incomes.

Ask anyone with some cash to invest - will they leave it in the bank with miserable interest?
Will they buy stocks in half dead bursa that are syndicated and mostly held by the special political or politically linked groups?

Props was the natural answer. With banks opening the floodgates, we have what we have now. With an outdated economy relying on cheap foregin labor, producing commodities like plam oil and gloves, and with few signs of change, one needs to a lot of self confidence to think all will stay well and good at this rate of prop buying with such price increases.

OK, use Ireland then. Or any of the PIGS!


http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/...d/Price-History

hehe... this sounds like further buying.

but no, i dun think elections this time will prop up re prices. won't even prop bursa prices, imo - because the whole machinery is running out of steam, exhausted. they may not even have the money to do that 30bil mrt and xy bil 100s tower. all talk onli...

not so simple. there is a a range of behaviors and methods.
some rent out to neutralise cash flow, sell later.
some have good holding power, can leave the prop vacant for a few years.
some get 5% discount, some 7% discount, some even more, depending on project and buyer type.
some sell a few months after buying, before completion, lock in price, then move on to the next available one - most popular method for those getting discounts. Do that a few times a year, you make millions in a couple of years.

only when the shit hits veli hard that most will get into trouble. this is why some people can retire early if they have a little brain, connections and use (abuse) what's going on in the last 2 years. not so easy now, of course.

how does anyone know this is bottom or that is slightly after the pit bottom?

agree with much of what you wrote.

the term "strategic location" has become very much of a cliche.
in some threads, some see that as damansara heights and mont kiara... but really, how many can afford DH, how many dare buy mk now?
in other threads, some strongly say cyberjaya and kajang are now strategic, others say puchong or klang.

the underlying unspoken attitude, i suspect is:

. the would be investors who missed buying last 2 yrs now trying very hard to get on a "last boat"
. vested speculators will always find an argument to buy this and not that

genuine homeseekers now put in a very raw and awkward situation - to buy or not to buy. it is compunded by a high inflation sluggish economy with little hope of wealth increase, foreign investment. tough times...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 26 2010, 02:02 PM

classic economics perspective, that has to be the case.

prices up yes, less sure if wages MUST go up. standard of living can go down - maybe smaller houses, cheap fish and stale chicken?

in addition, we have a large population feeding off civil service jobs or on low pay. top it up with a few million hungry illegal immigrants.

what happens then, who knows?

---

Added on December 26, 2010, 7:40 pmyou are looking for what everybody is looking for - a big fat kaplar!
chances of finding one was higher 2-3 years ago. now, who will let go?
now, if you think you spot one, think again if it is not actually a stale rotten rat!


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 26 2010, 07:40 PM

read somewhere 30 years ago, fresh grads were getting around 1.2K, car was RM30K, mixed rice rm1 per plate.


agree... these people also wanna make money, must sell to some others people. rental - if high end props, rent to who? w/o fdi and no. high pay expats falling to almost nothing, not so many waterfish foreigner...

this foreigner buying thing is overhyped, only seen in isolated projects. little compared to other cities. maybe more rm buying in australia and shanghai...

that's called a declining standard of living which will happen if no major econmoic policy change for another 10 years.

gomen politicians... too busy accumulating wealth... not for you and me, of course...



She added that the public has to deal with increasing costs while wages remained stagnant.

“It should not distract us from the realities on the ground, namely the issue of urban poverty, increasing household debt, stagnant wages, increasingly unaffordable low quality tertiary education, unaffordable housing compounded with increasing daily living expenses,” she said.

A study conducted by the human resource ministry last year revealed that almost 34 per cent of about 1.3 million workers surveyed earned less than RM700 a month – below the poverty line of RM720 per month.

A World Bank study also found that the wage trend in Malaysia had recorded only an annual 2.6 per cent growth from 1994 to 2007.
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...ty-free-status/

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 27 2010, 06:11 PM