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 ICAP, traded price higher than NAV

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prophetjul
post Nov 16 2012, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(kinwing @ Nov 16 2012, 11:54 AM)
No, I am not saying you are driven by majority consensus, I said your imagination is trying to drive the majority consensus, but it was found too weak and not convincing to affect the majority.

What sheep mentality? Are you sheep so giving sheep logic? Not paying dividend does not equate scam that to lead sheeple mentality but a choice. Just like people who choose to eat something or not to eat, it is a choice. And you have no ground to label choices that made by investors/consumers are sheeple mentality because they do not agree to your 'imagination'. Truth is always there regardless of how you labelling it as 'sheep' or not 'sheep'.

Btw, Genneva is not ALL right but ICAP is. At least ICAP is not raided by BNM. So this is another fantasy imagination. LOL biggrin.gif
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You STILL dont get it do YOU?

First i am not trying to drive up anything OR affect anyone.

Next, the majority at your Agm does not move me one bit about the exorbitant fees.

Next, Its nothing to do with a scam or not......its all about your AGM majoority mentality. 60,000 consented
to a scam. Does it make their mentality RIGHT? whistling.gif

You are right about choices. Some Sheeple choose to be stupid.


Added on November 16, 2012, 1:43 pmTan Teng Boo made the following statement during the last AGM saga.
“My 18% growth which I have built up may be gone. Our NAV has gained 189% since listing or 18% per annum. At such a rate, in seven years time, it would be RM8.78. We give consistent long-term returns,”

rclxms.gif

how many people go deeper to analyze if TTB has really have done such a fantastic job for its shareholders as professed through the hero worshipping of shareholders and the ultra arrogant behaviour of TTB against the very people who employ and pay him his fees?

For the SHEEPle............

The gain of 18% pa of icap’s NAV over the 7 years period from inception to now (October 30 2012) outperformed KLCI of 12.0% (including dividend) by a wide margin of 4.8%. However, a closer look at its performance shows that all the outperformance was achieved in the initial period from inception up to 3 January 2008, when its NAV improved by 126% compared to 60% of KLCI.

Soon after that, in tandem with the decline of the world markets and KLCI, Icap’s NAV declined to its lowest at RM1.42 on 31st October 2008. After that NAV increased steadily again to RM2.96 on 2nd November 2012. However since the peak NAV on 3rd January 2008, the CAGR of icap NAV is only 5.9%, closely follows the total return of KLCI of 6%. Even from the low of the market on 5th March 2009, CAGR of NAV of icap to 2nd November 2012 of 21% doesn’t match up with the total return of KLCI of 22% per year. Where was the Sage TTB during this period? Was it just a temporary phenomenon happened by some luck factor in the early days?

user posted image

Next, in terms of share price performance, Icap’s return of 12.6% per year for the entire period is not much better than that of the return of the market of about 12.0%. For those who bought athe peak price in 2008.....ahem....you have yet to see the price back at its High.. The share price on 2nd November 2012 is 10% below then, or at a loss of 2% pa. During the same period, return of KLCI was 6% a year. This means the share price of icap underperformed the market by huge 8% per year.
Lets just say you were smarrt enough to have bought at the low price of Rm1.46. Your CAGR to date will be around 14%, no way near 18%! For the present price of Rm2.4 to get to TTB's holy grail of Rm8.78 in 7 years will require ........a CAGR............................drum roll...........oif...................................... 20.4% !!!! rclxms.gif


user posted image

So Can TTB be so cocksure of what he said above that the return is consistent, and that could continue to increase NAV consistently at 18% pa for the next 7 years for Icap share price to be RM8.78 in October 2019? whistling.gif

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Nov 16 2012, 02:01 PM
prophetjul
post Nov 16 2012, 02:11 PM

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QUOTE(Denis @ Nov 16 2012, 02:08 PM)
What made you so difficult about ICAP?
It is normal to for some years to yield better than other years. 
If u are not happy with TTB, management fee and ICAP performance, just leave this counter. whistling.gif
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is it wrong to discuss?
Is this not a forum?
OR are you in the worng place? whistling.gif
prophetjul
post Nov 16 2012, 02:25 PM

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QUOTE(Denis @ Nov 16 2012, 02:21 PM)

What for make nonsense argument!
Get it.
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So you believe TTb gonna make 20.4% CAGR in the next 7 years?
He is better than WB......NO ARGUEMENT! wink.gif
prophetjul
post Nov 16 2012, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(kinwing @ Nov 16 2012, 02:23 PM)
No, it's your concern about the exorbitant fees but I am looking at a bigger amount in long run which is well over to cover the fees by many times. So it's mutual opinion not only we are sheeple but you too.

If you are judging the fund base on the lower return happen these recent years and ignoring the out-performance that, so you are ignorance about fund management and have no idea what is Global Investment Performance Standard (GIPS) on how to judge a fund's performance base on their return since inception.

From a fund management point of view, we always look at the return since inception. While fund might perform well, it will always face trough period some other time and its performance may not up to market. However, it will eventually pick up base on the how consistent of the fund manager. As I have mentioned before, if ICAP has performed 50% better than you in the previous years, it will always be better than you even if you are outperfomring ICAP by 3% every year in the next 10 years. So it's you not getting it.

You also try to belittle the performance of ICAP base on share price, not its NAV is another joke. By the way, you are also so unintelligent to assume that investors will buy at ICAP at a very high price and eventually hold the share until today so they are making bad return in terms of share price, but you never consider if I am buying at discount and wait till I can get back NAV in 8 years later, I'll get a return that would even better than the return of CAGR 18% by the fund manager. No wonder you can't make money from simple investment like ICAP. HAHA:D, I just want to laugh at your  face.
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Silly dooddah.........

As i have mentioned before, its easy to point out fanstastic gains in a BULL year of 2008.
Thats the reason i brought out the last 4 yaers....did TTB do well? What was his performance?
The KLCI gained in the last four years, went PAST its PEAK in 2008 and YET Icap did not.

How well? ............ yo are not gettin it.

Hows it investors cant buy at high price? Its always a scenario for discussion.
i dont need ICAP to make money for me.......
i guess you are a deluded SHEEPLe waiting for TTb to do a CAGR of 20.4% for the next 7 years.....HAHAHA nod.gif


prophetjul
post Nov 16 2012, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(kinwing @ Nov 16 2012, 02:43 PM)
LOL, another unwise comment. I was not telling that you need ICAP to make money for you, I was saying you could make money from ICAP from its discount. So it's you so unsmart to understand what I said biggrin.gif .
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So silly to pay TTB Rm6 mil for buying a dicsount? wink.gif


Added on November 16, 2012, 2:48 pm
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 16 2012, 02:47 PM)
So silly to pay TTB Rm6 mil for buying a dicsount?    wink.gif
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AND wait another 7 years ti realise the discount? BRILLIANT! rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Nov 16 2012, 02:48 PM
prophetjul
post Nov 16 2012, 03:20 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Nov 16 2012, 03:11 PM)
Is it confirmed that iCap will liquidate in 2020? If that's the case, you can consider it as your kids' education fund. (Assuming that they will be in the higher education 7 or 8 years later.)
I'm only worried if TTB wants to earn manager's fees indefinitely.
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No idea...........he may enjoy his fees to much to liquidate! wink.gif
prophetjul
post Nov 17 2012, 12:24 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 17 2012, 11:23 AM)
A good value posting. smile.gif
Sad to say is disappointing that we cannot have a good discussion without ego getting in the way. wink.gif

prophetjul, I have small issue with the numbers you have posted.
ICAP was listed on 17/10/2005.
Its NAV on 20/10/2005 was 0.99.
Its 2012 Annual report was dated 12/9/2012.
NAV on 13/9/2012 was 2.93.
That's a CAGR of 16.77% since listed.

Not sure how you got the CAGR of 18%.
Also in maths, when one compounds for many years, the slightest variance in the growth rate would see a drastic different result.

Here's an assumption that ICAP can grow at CAGR of 16.77% till 2020.

        year NAV
2005 0.99 === icap NAV when it was listed
1 2006 1.156023
2 2007 1.349888057
3 2008 1.576264284
4 2009 1.840603805
5 2010 2.149273063
6 2011 2.509706155
7 2012 2.930583878 === where we are now.
8 2013 3.422042794
9 2014 3.995919371
10 2015 4.666035049
11 2016 5.448529127
12 2017 6.362247461
13 2018 7.429196361
14 2019 8.67507259
15 2020 10.12988226 === NAV of ICAP by 2020.

A NAV of 10.13 by 2020?
Possible? We will get to that later.

This is a CAGR of 18%.

        year  NAV
2005 0.99
1 2006 1.1682
2 2007 1.378476
3 2008 1.62660168
4 2009 1.919389982
5 2010 2.264880179
6 2011 2.672558611
7 2012 3.153619162 === if ICAP compounded at 18% since inception, its NAV would have been 3.15!
8 2013 3.721270611
9 2014 4.391099321
10 2015 5.181497198
11 2016 6.114166694
12 2017 7.214716699
13 2018 8.513365705
14 2019 10.04577153
15 2020 11.85401041 === NAV of ICAP by 2020!!

A NAV of 11.85 if ICAP compounded at 18% since inception!!!

Where is ICAP NAV headed?
CAN ICAP grow at the SAME CAGR for the next 8 years?
ICAP 2012 annual report had some interesting points.

From page 4.
1. "There are no purchases made since 31 May 2011.. "
2. "For the financial year ended 31 May 2012, your Fund sold 4,400 shares of Boustead Holdings
Berhad, 383,000 shares of Fraser & Neave Holdings Berhad, 350,000 shares of Integrax Berhad
and 300,000 shares of Petronas Dagangan Berhad. These sales generated realised gains of
RM8.329 million with a cost of RM3.647 million."
3. In the year ending 31 May 2012, your Fund received 113,800 shares of Pharmaniaga Berhad from
Boustead Holdings Berhad on the basis of one Pharmaniaga share for every 57.5 ordinary shares of
RM0.50 held in Boustead.

My interpretation (this is mine, what's yours? biggrin.gif)
Teng Boo is a proclaimed value investor who believes that one should let the power of compounding works for the investor.
But for the fiscal year, Teng Boo, sold or take profit a portion of the fund's stake in several stocks and bought nothing.
My interpretation is that he sees no value in the current market since he bought nothing.
And that he took profit by selling a small portion of the fund's holding on F&N and Petronas Dagangan suggests to me he thinks the stock value is rich and is a good time to take profit.
Which means I thinks he wants to build a war chest to buy stocks once they fall lower.

In the fund's current portfolio at 12/9/12, the following stocks carries the most value.
Petronas Dagangan - 51 million
Padini - 46.5 million
Parkson - 41.8 million
F&N - 41 million
Boustead - 36.3 million

This 5 stocks carries a value of 216.6 million.
ICAP total stock value at 12/9/12 is 269 million. (all this info from page 37)
Cash is 133 million. (page 26)

To say ICAP compound at 18% since listing until 2020, says that ICAP should be around 11.85.
ICAP NAV value now is 2.93.
How many percent increase from 2.93 to 11.85?  rolleyes.gif
With the current stocks ICAP have and its cash position, can Teng Boo do it?
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Very nice evaluation! Not so easy to get a nice and friendly discussion without the ad hominien coming in nowadays! biggrin.gif

You are right...it should be around 16.77%

You have done many further favours by looking deeper into his investments and come upwith
further questions on his outlandish claims.


So BEGS the question: Can TTB do it?

Can he achieve 19.1% for the next 8 years or so to achieve his bizarre claims? wink.gif

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Nov 17 2012, 12:29 PM
prophetjul
post Nov 19 2012, 08:57 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 18 2012, 03:29 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


A: The stock is performing well or having sterling performance since inception, and traded at discount, and the stock is ABC fund itself, so since ABC holding plenty of cash, why not ABC bought its own share, as it is a undervalued stock that traded below 20-30%? Isn't it fund can make even more money and objective is to buy undervalued stock?
Also isn't it ABC fund/stock itself had magnificent performance and perform well? 
So isn't it, it is a good target to invest by the fund?

I: ........
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Hmmmmmm..........the newbie may be wiser than us blinkered oldies...... biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Nov 19 2012, 04:27 PM

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NO GUARANTEES...... yet Mr. TTB said that as IF............ rolleyes.gif

“My 18% growth which I have built up may be gone. Our NAV has gained 189% since listing or 18% per annum. At such a rate, in seven years time, it would be RM8.78. We give consistent long-term returns,”
prophetjul
post Feb 19 2013, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 19 2012, 04:27 PM)
NO GUARANTEES...... yet Mr. TTB said that as IF............  rolleyes.gif

“My 18% growth which I have built up may be gone. Our NAV has gained 189% since listing or 18% per annum. At such a rate, in seven years time, it would be RM8.78. We give consistent long-term returns,”
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Ummm..........today ICAP is RM2.28........how ar?

For it to get to Rm8.78 in 6 years , it needs to achieve 25.2% compounded growth for the next 6 years!

shakehead.gif shocking.gif shakehead.gif shocking.gif
prophetjul
post Feb 26 2013, 07:47 AM

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QUOTE(kinwing @ Feb 25 2013, 03:25 PM)
To me price does not matter. I look forward on the NAV to hit RM8.78 instead of share price tongue.gif .
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KEEP Looking!
YOU may find it in yer DREAMS tonite!


BUt not at Tan teng BOO! 's ICAP........ tongue.gif

prophetjul
post Feb 26 2013, 08:50 AM

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QUOTE(kinwing @ Feb 26 2013, 08:47 AM)
LOL, that's your view and I have my own dream tongue.gif .
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For it to get to Rm8.78 in 6 years , it needs to achieve 25.2% compounded growth for the next 6 years!


thumbup.gif thumbup.gif thumbup.gif
prophetjul
post Feb 28 2013, 08:48 AM

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QUOTE(rivacordex @ Feb 27 2013, 06:26 PM)
Makes a lot of sense there! And if one would like to not feel the pain of "discounting" of NAV to stock price of the CEF, then, one can also mirror TTB's holdings on these! smile.gif
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Provided you can trust Tan teng BOO! 's judgement!

Trust him to say : " ......Our NAV has gained 189% since listing or 18% per annum. At such a rate, in seven years time, it would be RM8.78. We give consistent long-term returns,”

Its no longer 18% pa...............its 25%!

rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif
prophetjul
post Mar 8 2013, 08:30 AM

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QUOTE(lifeless_creature @ Mar 6 2013, 10:22 PM)
i think i agree with bryan, icap doesn't give dividends, its volume is low, low liquidity will certainly affects its stock price. Everyone knows its NAV is higher than its stock price, but who wants to push the stock price to match its NAV??
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Ask Mr Tan to buyback share to push the price up.......... biggrin.gif

Afterall Icap has ltsa cash........
prophetjul
post May 16 2013, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Feb 28 2013, 08:48 AM)
Provided you can trust Tan teng BOO! 's judgement!

Trust him to say :  "  ......Our NAV has gained 189% since listing or 18% per annum. At such a rate, in seven years time, it would be RM8.78. We give consistent long-term returns,”

Its no longer 18% pa...............its 25%! 

rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif
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ICAP Rm2.38.......... HOW?
prophetjul
post Aug 1 2013, 06:27 PM

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QUOTE(davinz18 @ Aug 1 2013, 06:17 PM)
On behalf of the Board of icapital.biz Berhad, we wish to announce that the Net Asset Value per share of icapital.biz Berhad as at 31 July 2013 was RM2.96.
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rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif

POP* the Champagne! thumbup.gif
prophetjul
post Aug 2 2013, 10:19 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 2 2013, 01:20 AM)
icap only discount 19%, holding mostly midcap, so not consider cheap loh for midcap valuation. Now there are lots of midcaps trading at above 30% discount to FV.
ttb is just too conservative and too lazy to deal with icap malaysia. His holding has been minimum movement for more than 3 years now, still wait for another 5 years until world economy stabilize only want to make big move?
the cash holding is now above 50% is it?
however, for those who "do not like to loss money", icap seems like a good choice. it's quite hard to loss money i think after monitoring its NAV movement vs market up/down.
hmm.gif
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In the meantime, TTB thanks all the suiyees for the management fees and funding his lifestyle
prophetjul
post Aug 19 2013, 07:48 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 18 2013, 07:53 PM)
The stocks that icap currently holding are not trading at low PE.
I'd 11 stocks that icap holding on my list, the PE are 33, 24, 19, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9 and net loss (MSC).
none of them are close to average small-mid cap stocks at 6-8x.
cool2.gif
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How very nice for TTB.......sitting on his rearend and STILL reaping off investors with his Manager's FEES.........

How very nice.
prophetjul
post Aug 26 2013, 08:31 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 24 2013, 10:05 AM)
This is a good issue to give it some thinking. tongue.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Questions indeed.
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whatta writeup! thumbup.gif

NOW EVERYONE CAN be a FUN manager! rclxms.gif
prophetjul
post Aug 27 2013, 09:58 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Aug 26 2013, 10:23 AM)
All Unit Trust Management Co (approved by SC) charge fees
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Are you trying to blame SC for TTB's inept performance?

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