I upped this prediction a bit...it will happen in less than 2 years.

Investors should do their own due diligence and not follow what others here do with their investments...

Wealth is make in a down red market. But when there are bloods on the street even if it's your own blood.

Basically buy the f**king dip.

Unker doesn't have crystal ball except for two saggy ones. Unker cannot predict the future unlike you who can see the demise of your own country. It's similar to those who left US and UK and said their own country is going to collapse.

Unker doesn't have the superman ability to see that far. God will laugh if Unker forecast more than a year. What Unker can do is to check EPF account dividend every year and estimate how much Unker is going to make via dividend versus someone who Kung Fu their money here and there thinking they know what's going to happen.

Like what Unker said in previous posts, Unker doesn't know how to use Excel but using common sense, Unker knows EPF dividend is going to surpass all returns from FX gain and cost. This doesn't include emotional anguish watching MYR continue to appreciate against SGD after transferring money to Singapore. You can read Unker common sense here.


https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopi...ost&p=109741680

On diversification, Unker fully support it. Everyone must diversify. But problem here is some experts are advocating "FULLY DIVERSIFY AWAY" from Malaysia and justify that whatever they're doing is true diversification.

Unker was suspended for a month because trying to advocate different point of view. Looks like this forum is turning into a homogeneous forum.

If you check all Unker posts, Unker tried to give "wake up call" many times before the SGDMYR massive collapse but no one cares. They reported Unker many times and when after SGDMYR collapsed, Unker came back and reminded everyone how much money they have lost transferring money to SGD including EPF dividend and related costs.
Unker kena suspended.

Unker is only a messenger. Unker doesn't cause the collapse in SGDMYR. Don't kill the messenger. Don't be sore losers

Agreed. I am not worry about my existing foreign currencies losing at all. Eventually, we all know which directions it will go.

This post has been edited by CommodoreAmiga: Sep 8 2024, 10:55 AM

Your crystal ball is very clear and can see 10 years ahead. Unker is not that good. Old fart already.

Unker is not concerned about who's right because Unker may no longer have another 10 years.But common sense already tell Unker which one will outperform on "a per unit of risk basis."

EPF consistent 5% per year & its SNOWBALL compounding effect is very hard to fight. Common sense only. Don't need a spreadsheet

ok, so basically it is just your view. I do appreciate your explanation, but in same time was hoping that you had some solid rationale for you to indicate that a portfolio heavily invested in non-ringgit assets would be decimated.

diversification also means not all in ringgit assets. I am glad i shifted half of my EPF out starting Sept/Oct last year. gains far outweight ringgit move from 4.6xx to 4.3xx.

The probability of foreign based investment being 'decimated' only happens when deep recession hits... Key question is when this will likely to happen? I'm guessing within 2 years as per my earlier reply. I'm referring specifically on the security assets including leverage derived assets.

OTOH, when recession hits, the USD cash is considered a safe haven for most investors to run to, provided they exit in time before recession hits. This is likely to cause DXY, dollar index to rise up before declining back again slowly into the decade depending on the macros

Most don't look at the DXY which measure the strength of USD against a basket of other key currencies. MYR strengthens due to DXY declining lately hence directly USD weakens. When USD is weakening, most hedge funds likely to rotate investment into emerging markets, Msia included, and MYR gains...

Is not about crystal ball.

Talking based off facts and data.
EPF returns are fixed at around 5.x% p.a
They won't increase it automatically say 10%p.a
This is what I learned from overseas financial blogger/YouTuber based in US/Canada.
If your money don't grow on a yearly basis, it's losing out to inflation.

Malaysian politics, and fundamentals.
Won't go there. You know I know la. Later someone said I am talking politics. Politics will determine the demand for the currency now and going into the future. Unless somehow Malaysia can magically become Singapore 😂

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Sep 8 2024, 08:00 PM

Unker understand everyone is making their best guesstimate based on facts and figures to make financial decisions. In the past, Unker also did whatever you guys are doing.
Unfortunately, market always discount the future. A very good example is when Ringgit is dropping like stone last few years, many panic and transfer a lot of money to Singapore at very high FX.
They're all sitting on losses now. Hopefully, they're able to use their SGD to invest in something to offset their losses. All in all, they introduced a lot of risk and uncertainty into their portfolio. Not everyone can transfer to SGD and immediately choose a winning investment to offset SGDMYR losses.
Most will likely get deeper in red by investing their SGD in bad investment. Some transfer to SGD to DCA into SP500 and sitting on good return now. But Unker is talking about return per unit of risk.
When investors kungfu their money here and there, they introduced additional risk into their portfolio, making their portfolio more volatile.
A slow & steady 5% per year will eventually win the race as the world is becoming more volatile

The key in building wealth is not to make the best prediction. It's USING THE POWER OF COMPOUNDING. Unker has roamed the earth many decades to realise that and hope to pass on the wisdom

This post has been edited by boyboycute: Sep 9 2024, 05:22 PM

You are right, per unit of risk EPF beats everything else. In fact when I include EPF in my Markowitz portfolio optimizer it basically asks me to borrow money (at risk-free rate...) and dump all my assets in EPF.

But EPF's returns are manipulated, no one actually sees and observes the underlying asset valuation process, and in many cases if you asks the insiders here, EPF basically swallows up whole tranches of bonds issuances in the local corporate bond market. They mark the bonds at cost and there is no known way of valuing the investments on a daily basis since they swallow up everything... Who is to say whether EPF is really worth that much?

It's just that EPF is betting that not everyone will retire (or die) at the same time, thus there is no need to liquidate one trillion ringgit worth of assets that you see everything is smooth sailing.

Still water runs deep yea.

But yea unker knows more lah. Nearing retirement, best choice in Malaysia is still EPF, functioning like a HYSA. You just need to keep believing that the budget deficit will narrow and that some day, not too far in the future, the government can repay your debt faster than you die...

That said, as this country ages and more and more people choose not to have kids, EPF is running out of steam growing AUM via organic growth. And aging population means an increasingly higher proportion of assets have to be in liquid MMF/T-bills/bank deposits which may not do well in a low-yield environment. This are things one need to consider moving forward. (Not to mention Unker's time back then saw Malaysia's economy roaring like a Tiger, today that tiger is Indonesia or Vietnam.)

key to building wealth is understanding risks n exposures... power of compounding is part of it but not what you think...

epf is a good storage vessel... ~zero risk and ~6% returns... it barely outruns real inflation... one is supposed to get rich outside of epf...

sgd will out perform myr over time... onus now is for the folks with sgd to out perform epf...

If you look how much EPF received from voluntary contribution after the limit increased to RM100k, you'll know that many members are very confident in EPF despite all the grey areas you mentioned.

Market is telling Unker EPF is safe and Unker have to listen to it. Market is usually right.

Trying to outperform EPF CONSISTENTLY is a fool's errant, unless you have a team of traders and analyst around you.

Come let me throw some cold water. It's very easy to outperform the EPF. Just buy s&p500 or qqq. 30 years dow the road you will get double or what EPF can give. Problem is most people don't want to wait 30 years. Conservatively 7%p.a for 30 years. Less conservative, would be 10%p.a for 30 years.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Sep 10 2024, 12:31 PM

not wrong at all. but when it's brutal, it's very brutal.



-40% when it's red. that means you need 100% to return to normal level.

i have both to balance my baskets.. EPF won't have negative, that is the beauty of it.

This post has been edited by gashout: Sep 10 2024, 04:23 PM

I only dare to claim that I got really lucky this year when I decided to take my excess EPF funds and invest overseas... basically already made more than 10 years worth of return when compared to EPF.

now looking for a or some good rationales for repatriating those funds back to Malaysia... so far, no one could tell me convincingly that the economy of Malaysia is or will be doing well, which will allow ringgit to appreciate convincingly... headache.

Did the market tell you the contribution limit is raised to help fund more government borrowings/fiscal deficit?

Your "market" is more likely to consists of retired people, it's a different world for those below 30s...

Indeed, some members are confident. They are usually nearing retirement or already retired*, surely will repatriate money back from overseas or from FD to EPF to enjoy the liquidity at 5%. EPF functions like a HYSA for those above 50-55. Nothing wrong with that. Just bear in mind that the 5% p.a. liquid returns you get from EPF hinges on the fact that not everyone withdraws at the same time. If EPF has to allocate more money to MMF/T-bills/bank deposits to prepare for withdrawals, the return of EPF will be dragged closer to that of MMF/T-bills/bank deposits. There is no free lunch out there. Looking at the demographic trend (and with Account 3's introduction) , EPF's duration mismatch risk is actually getting higher as the year goes by... if you think carefully enough.

*Not everyone can afford to fully utilize the prior 60k annual limit (that's 5k MYR a month, easily a fresh grad's entirely month's salary in Malaysia), and so if it's raised to 100k, the marginal extra contribution to EPF has to come from the wealthy/retired/almost retired, the one who can afford to dump in another 40k a year without blinking an eye. "In economics, you think at the margin."

This post has been edited by TOS: Sep 10 2024, 02:10 PM

Again Unker doesn't have crystal ball. Maybe someone here have superb ability to predict the ending of EPF and Malaysia.

Unker heard similarities of such arguments in 1980s when rich fella sent their money, wife , kids and mistress to UK because the future was brighter there.

Read more here. Unker eyes blurred trying to type so much on Lowyat forum

https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopi...ost&p=109741680

This post has been edited by boyboycute: Sep 10 2024, 03:22 PM

Oooo. 1980s should be long enough to see any long term pattern.

Since this is a usdmyr thread. Fx is an indicator rite? This seems to be what we all here are indicating.

what was 1980s gbpmyr rate?
On same token, what was SGDMYR and usdmyr back in 1980s?
For added measure, audmyr also in 1980s.

If i remember correctly in 1980, GBPMYR=7+, AUDMYR=3+