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 Military Thread V28

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azriel
post Jun 2 2021, 08:12 AM

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QUOTE
01 JUNE 2021

Indonesia reveals USD125 billion military modernisation plan

by Jon Grevatt & Andrew MacDonald

A draft regulation from Indonesia’s presidential office has outlined the requirement for investment of USD125 billion in military modernisation through to the mid-2040s. The funding proposal is indicative of Indonesia’s military ambitions and its growing concerns about regional security.

The draft regulation – entitled ‘Fulfilling the Defence and Security Equipment Needs of the Ministry of Defence and Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) 2020-24’ – was issued recently but requires various approvals from ministries and the House of Representatives before enactment. The investment plan also highlights Indonesia’s continuing dependency on foreign loans.

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Indonesia has stated a requirement for funding worth USD125 billion in military investment through to the mid-2040s. The country’s modernisation requirements are thought to include Lockheed Martin F-16V fighter aircraft. (Lockheed Martin)

The proposed regulation details the requirement for USD124.9 billion for TNI modernisation funding over a period of five ‘strategic plans’ each lasting five years. The first strategic plan runs 2020–24 and coincides with the final phase of the TNI’s Minimum Essential Force (MEF) programme, while the last will be 2040–44.

The document proposes funding of USD79 billion for defence equipment during this 25-year period, USD32.5 billion for sustainment, and the remaining USD13.4 billion for interest payments on foreign loans.

The regulation prioritises sourcing TNI modernisation requirements from local industry. However, it states, “In the event that domestic products cannot be [procured], then foreign products can be used.”


Read more: https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-det...ernisation-plan


Lampuajaib
post Jun 2 2021, 08:16 AM

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QUOTE(ohman @ Jun 2 2021, 08:03 AM)
You mean UK french italy and germany will come to intrude sarawak like how they plan to intrude SCS?
*
Maybe we should put you in front line if CCP first wave is coming
Frozen_Sun
post Jun 2 2021, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(azriel @ Jun 2 2021, 08:12 AM)
$5 billion a year....

it could start from $3 billion per year, then around $8 billion per year in 2040

So, probably just allocation of regular budget. It remains to be seen if this will be followed up by future presidents. Jokowi and ryamizard terminated SBY's MEF program, so there's no obligation for future presidents.
azriel
post Jun 2 2021, 09:33 AM

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QUOTE(Frozen_Sun @ Jun 2 2021, 09:22 AM)
$5 billion a year....

it could start from $3 billion per year, then around $8 billion per year in 2040

So, probably just allocation of regular budget. It remains to be seen if this will be followed up by future presidents. Jokowi and ryamizard terminated SBY's MEF program, so there's no obligation for future presidents.
*
Its not quite like that based from news. All of the funds must be disburse up until 2024. The disbursement to be in stages. The time frame to 2044 iinm is for the financial payment period.

QUOTE
"US $ 125 billion is not all at once. This year there is already US $ 12 billion [in] 2021, if I'm not mistaken, in 2022 there will be an additional US $ 21 billion," Tamliha told CNNIndonesia.com, Saturday (29/5).


This is why some military analyst questioned it although they support this huge defense budget.

This post has been edited by azriel: Jun 2 2021, 09:36 AM
Frozen_Sun
post Jun 2 2021, 10:19 AM

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QUOTE(azriel @ Jun 2 2021, 09:33 AM)
Its not quite like that based from news. All of the funds must be disburse up until 2024. The disbursement to be in stages. The time frame to 2044 iinm is for the financial payment period.
This is why some military analyst questioned it although they support this huge defense budget.
*
We'll see...

but at this stage, a few billions USD worth of acquisition each year from regular defence budget is more believable to me.
azriel
post Jun 2 2021, 10:47 AM

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QUOTE(Frozen_Sun @ Jun 2 2021, 10:19 AM)
We'll see...

but at this stage, a few billions USD worth of acquisition each year from regular defence budget is more believable to me.
*
All this news was based from legislators who had received and read the draft presidential decree. Better we wait for the presidential decree finally signed for clearer view on this.

Anyway today the Indonesian MoD to meet with Commission 1 of the Indonesian House of Representative regarding this defense budget.

QUOTE
Prabowo to Hold Meeting with Commission I

Sri Utami - 02 June 2021 11:52 WIB

Jakarta : The Commission I of the House of Representatives (DPR) is scheduled to hold a meeting with Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto and National Armed Forces (TNI) leaders today.

Previously, the minister was not able to attend a meeting with the Commission. 

"There will be a meeting with Defense Minister and it is possibly closed from public," said Deputy Chair of Commission I DPR Abdul Kharis Almasyhari, as reported by Media Indonesia.

"(The meeting is) closed, because we will be discussing working plans and budgets of the ministry/institution (RKAKL)," he said.

Other than that, the meeting will also discuss other, including the country's primary weapons defense system (alutsista).


Read more: https://m.medcom.id/english/national/5b2mvx...th-commission-i




This post has been edited by azriel: Jun 2 2021, 01:52 PM
atreyuangel
post Jun 2 2021, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(ohman @ Jun 2 2021, 08:03 AM)
You mean UK french italy and germany will come to intrude sarawak like how they plan to intrude SCS?
*
except they dont
Al-Benis bin Hugh Mungus P
post Jun 3 2021, 05:45 AM

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QUOTE(azriel @ Jun 2 2021, 08:12 AM)
Yes, this certainly looks more sensible. Comes down to a little over US$3 Billion a year in new procurement each year for 25 years until 2044 - split between the 3 services.

I was almost worried that they might have intended to spend US$125 Billion on acquisition until 2024. That would drive deficit spending well beyond 3% of GDP per annum over the period. Unless Indonesia is willing to scale back its annual infrastructure spending by about a third, it won't be able to keep to the limit - which it must return to by 2023.

It'll also send a very bad signal regarding regional stability. That kind of spending is only justifiable if war is imminent. It is eerily similar in relative scope to the rise in defense spending in the Balkans in the years preceding WWII. Countries like Romania suddenly putting up orders for importation of hundreds of tanks and aircraft just a few years before the onset of the war, and much of their orders were never delivered given the situation which followed.

Hopefully, this means that Pentagon and Japanese "predictions" of war between Taiwan and China coming up in 2025-2028 - and its cascading effects - won't come to pass.
HangPC2
post Jun 3 2021, 11:58 AM

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darth5zaft
post Jun 3 2021, 06:35 PM

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[quote=azriel,Jun 1 2021, 07:20 AM]Unconfirmed report the Indonesian Navy Iver Huitfeldt frigate contract is now effective. The frigate final design will take 9 - 10 months to finish. First steel cutting expected next year. The Indonesian MoD wants the first frigate launching in end of 2023 or early 2024.

There was also early reports that the variant of the Iver Huifeldt Frigate for the Indonesian Navy will be equipped with Terma C-Flex CMS and Hensoldt TRS-4D Radar. Photo credit to Shipbucket.

user posted image
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[/quote]

Do they make a OPV or absalon class varient?

Personally i do think that MMEA "mothership" is basically an OPV version of SG MRCV. A joint procurement would help drive the cost down a lot considering ID would only be building 2.
quote=Frozen_Sun,Jun 2 2021, 09:22 AM]
$5 billion a year....

it could start from $3 billion per year, then around $8 billion per year in 2040

So, probably just allocation of regular budget. It remains to be seen if this will be followed up by future presidents. Jokowi and ryamizard terminated SBY's MEF program, so there's no obligation for future presidents.
*

[/quote]

maybe they should put up some basic infographic like RMN/RMAF did to discourage politicians from dicking around. A full fat defense white paper would be better

This post has been edited by darth5zaft: Jun 3 2021, 06:47 PM
azriel
post Jun 3 2021, 07:44 PM

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QUOTE
DND reportedly submitting proposal to procure Saab’s Gripen

Gerald Santos 3rd June 2021

The Department of National Defense (DND) is reportedly submitting a proposal to procure the Saab JAS-39C/D MS20 Gripen fighter aircraft for Philippine Air Force (PAF)’s Multi-Role Fighter Acquisition Project, MaxDefense Philippines said in an update June 2, citing sources from PAF.

MaxDefense said the DND is serious with the said project with National Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana personally pushing for the project to progress.

“Up until early this year, the PAF was pushing for the acquisition of the F-16 Block 70 Viper in which 12 brand new units were offered by the US to the PAF.” MaxDefense said. However, it added that “because of financial reasons, the PAF was left to choose between moving their MRF acquisition to the next Horizon 3 phase, or select a cheaper alternative. Cheaper alternatives include acquiring a 2nd squadron of KAI FA-50, or going with the Saab’s Gripen.”


https://www.mintfo.com/news/dnd-reportedly-...s-gripen/27163/
darth5zaft
post Jun 3 2021, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(Lampuajaib @ Jun 1 2021, 09:47 PM)
Nak intercept pun guna hawk.....kesian betul la.
MY ni bukan tak ada duit....ni dah kira emergency la.
*
Not about tak are duit.
TUDM want a magical jet that can

1)be a lift like Aermacchi
2) be a close air support like hawk
3) be an interceptor like MIG.

While politicians be it from PH & PN talk about MY building their own jet plane.

Basically they all wanted a jet that doesn't exist (yet!)

You could buy amerachi or fa-50 for 30mil USD. But once you want to shoot BVR it going to cost 50 mil USD which is basically the price of Gripen E. All of these jet had limited user so don't expect to used them for long.

Thought i come across this website which predict the development path of T7A as a spiritual successor to F5 with available license production to allies country so they can maintain/build/upgrade it themselves.

user posted image

https://warontherocks.com/2017/05/reclaimin...proven-success/


Thought it nice and all but the earliest not fighting capable jet can only be had by 2024 or 2028 for combat capable version (assuming US got the funding to build it in the 1st place). Meanwhile 36 of our Sukhoi & hawk aren't being 'upgraded' so basically if anything happens we are only down to almost nak roboh 8 bijik hornet.

Off cause even if Canada acquired those Gripen and we tumbang sekaki, they going to modified it kaw kaw as it would only be operational by 2028. US navy also looking for a hawk replacement again only available by 2028.

So assuming MY want US jet there's won't be any available for again at least 2028.

We could thank mamakthir for this. If he had gone for a full hornet + hawk fleet we still have 80 plane available and are flying rather than now where we can realistically count on 8 hornet.

Maybe we should go cry to uncle Sam to let us have f35 for now as their LCA aren't available for 10 more years. Technically there enough budget in this RM to buy either 36 Fa-50 or 15 f35A.
azriel
post Jun 3 2021, 07:50 PM

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QUOTE
1 JUN, 16:20

Five Southeast Asian states eye Russia’s Su-57 fifth-generation fighter — Rosoboronexport

Negotiations being held with several countries

MOSCOW, June 1. /TASS/. Five Southeast Asian countries show their interest in Russia’s Sukhoi Su-57 fifth-generation multirole fighter, CEO of the state arms seller Rosoboronexport Aleksandr Mikheyev said on Tuesday. 

"We are holding negotiations with several countries. We see requests and interest. Southeast Asia, four or five countries [show their interest]," the chief executive said.


Read more: https://tass.com/defense/1296511

Lampuajaib
post Jun 4 2021, 08:34 AM

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QUOTE(azriel @ Jun 3 2021, 07:50 PM)
I don't even know if there is one nation in SEA that brave enough against CAATSA.

Lampuajaib
post Jun 4 2021, 08:36 AM

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QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Jun 3 2021, 07:45 PM)
Not about tak are duit.
TUDM want a magical jet that can

1)be a lift like Aermacchi
2) be a close air support like hawk
3) be an interceptor like MIG.

While politicians be it from PH & PN talk about MY building their own jet plane.

Basically they all wanted a jet that doesn't exist (yet!)

You could buy amerachi or fa-50 for 30mil USD. But once you want to shoot BVR it going to cost 50 mil USD which is basically the price of Gripen E. All of these jet had limited user so don't expect to used them for long.

Thought i come across this website which predict the development path of T7A as a spiritual successor to F5 with available license production to allies country so they can maintain/build/upgrade it themselves.

user posted image

https://warontherocks.com/2017/05/reclaimin...proven-success/
Thought it nice and all but the earliest not fighting capable jet can only be had by 2024 or 2028 for combat capable version (assuming US got the funding to build it in the 1st place). Meanwhile 36 of our Sukhoi & hawk aren't being 'upgraded' so basically if anything happens we are only down to almost nak roboh 8 bijik hornet.

Off cause even if Canada acquired those Gripen and we tumbang sekaki, they going to modified it kaw kaw as it would only be operational by 2028. US navy also looking for a hawk replacement again only available by 2028.

So assuming MY want US jet there's won't be any available for again at least 2028.

We could thank mamakthir for this. If he had gone for a full hornet + hawk fleet we still have 80 plane available and are flying rather than now where we can realistically count on 8 hornet.

Maybe we should go cry to uncle Sam to let us have f35 for now as their LCA aren't available for 10 more years. Technically there enough budget in this RM to buy either 36 Fa-50 or 15 f35A.
*
F35 is a big No. The queue is too long. US will sell it after minimum her allies need are fullfilled.
Too expensive to operate and maintain.
Anti Stealth radar could be invented sometime in the near future.

This post has been edited by Lampuajaib: Jun 4 2021, 08:38 AM
Izzet
post Jun 4 2021, 09:21 AM

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Rather than fighting plane, isn't it better we invest in ship or SAM or drones? It is much better deterrence and lower acquired cost based on personnel/equipment cost ratio. The maintenance is even lower too. Fighter jet is overrated in 21st century . Fighter Drone is the way to go. Machine learning fighter drone combo with 2 pilots to form a squadron.
tokroni
post Jun 4 2021, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Jun 3 2021, 07:45 PM)
Not about tak are duit.
TUDM want a magical jet that can

1)be a lift like Aermacchi
2) be a close air support like hawk
3) be an interceptor like MIG.

While politicians be it from PH & PN talk about MY building their own jet plane.

Basically they all wanted a jet that doesn't exist (yet!)

You could buy amerachi or fa-50 for 30mil USD. But once you want to shoot BVR it going to cost 50 mil USD which is basically the price of Gripen E. All of these jet had limited user so don't expect to used them for long.

Thought i come across this website which predict the development path of T7A as a spiritual successor to F5 with available license production to allies country so they can maintain/build/upgrade it themselves.

user posted image

https://warontherocks.com/2017/05/reclaimin...proven-success/
Thought it nice and all but the earliest not fighting capable jet can only be had by 2024 or 2028 for combat capable version (assuming US got the funding to build it in the 1st place). Meanwhile 36 of our Sukhoi & hawk aren't being 'upgraded' so basically if anything happens we are only down to almost nak roboh 8 bijik hornet.

Off cause even if Canada acquired those Gripen and we tumbang sekaki, they going to modified it kaw kaw as it would only be operational by 2028. US navy also looking for a hawk replacement again only available by 2028.

So assuming MY want US jet there's won't be any available for again at least 2028.

We could thank mamakthir for this. If he had gone for a full hornet + hawk fleet we still have 80 plane available and are flying rather than now where we can realistically count on 8 hornet.

Maybe we should go cry to uncle Sam to let us have f35 for now as their LCA aren't available for 10 more years. Technically there enough budget in this RM to buy either 36 Fa-50 or 15 f35A.
*
The best option for us right now in the immediate future is to beg/kowtow for Legacy Hornets from Kuwait/Australia/Canada/US. Enough for 2 squadrons kira success already. 24-8=16 units. Surely US Marines can give/sell us their Legacy Hornet at bargain prices. After all, we are at the front line against Red China

After that, buy base model T50 . Enough as trainer aircraft. 3 squadrons.36 unitsxUSD 30 miliion

Sell all besi buruk MIGs, Aemarshit, Sukhoi and Hawks after that

In 2050, maybe we can shop around at whatever staealth aircraft available

Frozen_Sun
post Jun 4 2021, 10:21 AM

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If we get F-35 block 10 relatively cheaply due to economies of scale...SG and AU will butthurt...lol
UnknownMy
post Jun 4 2021, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(Frozen_Sun @ Jun 4 2021, 10:21 AM)
If we get F-35 block 10 relatively cheaply due to  economies of scale...SG and AU will butthurt...lol
*
We won't get F-35, coz US won't sell to us... sad.gif sad.gif
Frozen_Sun
post Jun 4 2021, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(UnknownMy @ Jun 4 2021, 11:13 AM)
We won't get F-35, coz US won't sell to us... sad.gif  sad.gif
*
not now....but they will. If F-16, F-15 and F-18 no longer in production.

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