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 Military Thread V28

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darth5zaft
post May 27 2021, 04:40 AM

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QUOTE(Lampuajaib @ May 25 2021, 08:09 AM)
Defence policy Indonesia and Malaysia is almost similar, but different in reality.
While Indonesia mastering new tech and capability, Malaysia still stuck in the same hole again.
*
not really.
ID is doing what we did 20 years ago, buy a little bit of everything on the pretext of transfer of technology and local assembly.
they basically doing it more for the cheer of the crowd just like we did how our navy got 8 warships from 3 different country.
or how we sacrifice things we need and bought thing we dont need like the adnan, pendekar, sukhoi & MIG.


there really not much appetite for it anymore be it from the army nor the public.
unlike ID, MY really think china is a problem and thus are trying to get their shit together from years of mahathir misdirection.


ID are very secure at this moments, they are not direct claimant of SCS. so they dont have to take things so seriously.
theres no need to step on chinese foot too much but just enough so angmoh would move their factories to their country.


SG arent a claimant of SCS, but they are ''obligated' to be involved and thus the mini carrier and destroyer.
and all the sea line of communication propaganda they keep on saying.
so after decades of military spending to invade malaysia, they turn 360 degree and change the acquisition strategy to ' defend '' MY.

despite lots of hiccups. i think we are doing quite well.

seem we are adopting the same strategy as other angmoh country.

tentera darat pretty much just ape aus land 400 strategy isnt it?
1st step get 250 8x8
2nd step get 500 or so more APC & anti aircraft gun (rumours is 250 6x6 has been approve) if anything i think it would the the griffon & jaguar
3rd step finish the networking and get some cheap self propelled howitzer

the 6 maharajalela, MPA, MALE combo is a pretty good ASW combo. RAN also are building 6 ASW frigates.
so it doesnt take a geniuses, to figure out RMN would need 3 AAW frigate next.
the RN is talking about acquiring amphibious assault ship, we too have the same requirement with MRSS

as for the air force, most angmoh country run 100 planes, guess thats why the AF is looking at fa50 i guess. thats the only planes we can afford in numbers.

so no. its isnt the same at all.
MY are preparing for war, ID isnt.

and not just a war to protect our country, the fact we ape angmoh acquisition albeit with lot cheaper hardware, mean we want to join in the war effort in foreign land as well.


darth5zaft
post May 27 2021, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(Lampuajaib @ May 27 2021, 08:31 AM)
Nope.
Just like ID, MY is also looking for tech transfer and building local defence capability. We have deftech, Airod, sme ordnance, PSC/BNS.  From Styer to LCS, our local defence industries try to build them locally. After decades ID has emerged as the most capable defence industries in the region but not for MY. ID has entered in subs and fighter technology to be built locally that none asean nation has.

Why SG want to protect MY? There is no agreement of obligation that both will help each other if one is attacked. Even FPDA agreement is not binding to do so.
SG modern military development is a must. They must buy military equipments with advance tech because they have no other way in order to have detterent factor.. No one felt threatened by SG for their advanced equipment.

What China for ID is exactly the same as others. China is a big business partner and major potential security problem. They are seriously developing defence infrastructure at Natuna which is a good thing for MY and SG. China can win war against ID but ID is too big too handle. Getting ID support is much better than against them. That is the reason why you said ID is not preparing for a war with China which is not true. Looking at their military builds up, they are much stronger with local defence industries back up. The situation ID is not required to have in 20 years ago where their nieghbours are only Aus, MY or SG.
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When I said 'obligated' it had less to do with FPDA but more to do with SG being a quazi ' protectorate ' of US. 85% of US investment in ASEAN goes through SG. So it's in their best interest to do what the American told them to do.

ID is not like MY at all despite speaking the same language. They have a big country with big population & destined to be a minor world power in 30 years time. So they pretty much act like chinese during the age of Deng.

ID like china military acquisition and international postering are not design for war. It's design for the domestic audiences not dissimilar to what Mahathir did to SG before.


Assembling weapons is one thing, building weapon from ground up is another. MY can assemble Honda car but designing our own car like P1 was an utter failure. To be fair we unlike JP,Ch & US post Mahathir hasn't spend money & protectionism to make local industry a success at all. Just see how much money they spend for the F35 or Shinkansen.

Assembling helicopter is not difficult, Airbus are more than happy to allowed local production. CH/JP/SK/ID had all done those. Personally i do think we would do so as well but instead of the puma it would be the H160M. Which unfortunately the french hasn't completed yet. CTRM had already expand their factory 200% bigger than before.

Assembling jet fighter too is not difficult, LM, saab, Kai even the chinese are more then happy to license local production. But we need to purchase hundred of it to make it worthwhile on top of money on R&D just to get a shittier less capable version then what already in the market.

For SK/India/china/turkey & even ID, due to their geopolitics may make it a worthwhile efforts. Some a ia conflict while other had superpowers ambitious. A good example of it is Gripen. By merit an excellent fighters. But sweeden doesn't have the allies/economic & military power to make it a worthwhile purchase for everyone else.

All of MY weapon efforts & TOT is exactly just that. A songlap efforts. We are not in a conflict or have enough population to justify a dedicated weapon manufacturer. If we truly want a defense industry then pick something with a civilian application. Thing like Eurocopter/Renault truck/Damen ship/ ivenco are civilian stuff that can be militarized.

Infact it does seem it was the army & gov want to do except politaik just can't stop fucking it up.

.

darth5zaft
post May 27 2021, 02:59 PM

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QUOTE(Mai189 @ May 26 2021, 01:56 PM)
I must say the Endurance 160 (160m to 169m), Endurance 170 (170m to 179m) or follow on larger variants e.g. Endurance 240 bears a lot of resemblance to RNs Invincible class carriers. It is almost as if space is left behind for a ski ramp to be installed:

user posted image
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Seem like they would start constructions by 2030.
RMN too plans to get another MRSS by that time frame.

Maybe we should tumpang build one with them. Rather then spending a lot of money just designing a single ship.
darth5zaft
post May 27 2021, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(Mai189 @ May 27 2021, 03:11 PM)
Lol wut protectorate? Sg has not joined the US on their more wilder endeavours. There is a reason why Sg has refused to be a treaty ally although they are allies for mutual benefits for all intents and purposes - they signed a separate military agreement.

As for indo, you should count their chickens or assets when they "actually" buy/build something. Otherwise, it is all not true or vapourware esp. given their financial constraints.
*
Interesting you mention 'wilder' endeavors.
Because they do join in in some minor endeavors.
Understandable why they don't join the war on terror is due to their two neighbors isn't it? They are more than happy to join the war on china though.

Like i said ID are just doing it for domestic audiences. The fact is they don't even have enough capabilities to hold on to their owned territories.

But then again, in 20-30 years they would be in the same position as the chinese is now and would be doing the exact same shit. So it's a good idea for them to start their own military industrial complex. Not to mention not every indonesian want to be indonesian so the risk of being embargo again is high.

darth5zaft
post May 27 2021, 05:37 PM

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QUOTE(Mai189 @ May 27 2021, 03:33 PM)
This is a good point. See how Euro countries support one another in defence. Sg and My have often negotiated on the basis of package of benefits as the 2 economies are linked.

In spite of cross border arguments by politicos, the most pragmatic thing to do by both countries is to work closer together in the future. People to people relationship and even between the 2 militaries are excellent. Many people forget the air defences of Sg and peninsula My are jointly coordinated with IADS at Butterworth. Personal politics aside Sg will not say no to the deployment of her GBADs in My if the need arises. And IADs have vectored RSAF planes against intruders to My airspace.

I suspect with the departure of Tun and his generation and one generation after that, relations will improve. LKY has already left and LHL will be stepping down.

2020 to 2030 - busy decade for RSN however ST has room for more:

RSNs build/induction list in no order of priority is 1) MRCV heavy frigates to replace the Victory class corvettes 2) Mid-life upgrade to Formidable class frigates 3) JSSM LHDs to replace Endurance class LPDs 4) Purpose built light frigates for maritime security 5) Induction/further purchase of Invincible class submarines 6) Build up of USVs and UUvs 7) Likely new minesweepers 8) Definitely new MPAs to replace the ageing Fokker 50s - P8s.
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Currently their defense spending is as high as indonesia.

But In pre covid 2033 estimate, MY economy would be 2x of SG while ID would be 3x of MY. So by then MY & ID can afford the same toys as SH even with just 1% spending on GDP on defense. By 2040 MY GDP PPP per capita would be in parity with SK.

So unless we fucked things up and hired ourselves another dictator. Getting the same LPD as SG by 2035 is possible. We can probably afford for a joint procurement of weapon post 2040.
darth5zaft
post May 27 2021, 05:49 PM

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QUOTE(Lampuajaib @ May 27 2021, 05:00 PM)
Although SG could build MRSS for MY, the price will not beat ID. If MY looking for a gold plated MRSS then still will not bought from SG.
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ID MRSS is a ferry.
It's not meant for war
Heck it doesn't even have centralized a/c.

Doubt it has any abilities to replenish heli & other ship.
If it can't do that then how to hunt for submarines & mines?

Obviously our army wanted something like damen's Karel doorman


This post has been edited by darth5zaft: May 27 2021, 07:51 PM
darth5zaft
post May 27 2021, 08:15 PM

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QUOTE(Mai189 @ May 27 2021, 07:44 PM)
Sgs budget has been consistently larger:
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-det...-for-2021_15567

Then you need 2 take into account how Sg makes every cent worthwhile for a country known for its efficiency, low to zero corruption, low overheads, etc.
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Getting 5th place in crony capitalist index hardly make them efficient, low to zero corruption, low overhead, sugar ,spice and everything nice.


darth5zaft
post May 27 2021, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(Lampuajaib @ May 27 2021, 09:05 PM)
UK new frigate type 31 is based on Iver Huitfeldt which is based on Absalon class whose initial design as support ship with ro-ro deck.
MRSS offered by ID is 163m to meet RMN requirements.
If it is cheaper and meet all requirements then it is worth to be picked.

Karel Doorman? Really?
It is a 27.000 ton support ship, it is too big, bigger than huge for MY.
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More like mini Karel doorman.
And most of it tonnage are from the oil it carries not really due to the amount of metal only.

Navantia had offered such a design.
https://www.navalnews.com/event-news/pacifi...rt-ship-design/

Going for indonesia is risky. It's basically what we been doing all along. Taking a ship RMN don't want and try to re engineer & redesign it to what RMN wants. RMN wants) a combo replenishment ship + LPD. Not just a LPD.


Guess the only reason gov hasn't approved it got to do with MMEA. From the way they describe their mothership. It seem they are talking about something like the absalon class. And as you have said. Absalon CAn kinda work as a MRSS.

Personally the reason they want a big MRSS is probably because they wanna get rid of bunga mas 5p but they still want to have a replenishment ship. And as MMEA stated running oil platforms & tanker as mobile base is extremely expensive.

Going danish is great for local industry too. They basically has no more shipyard and only exist as a consultant firms. So their TOT is a real TOT unlike Damen which would insist on doing the 'difficult' part in their shipyard and we only exist as an assemblers.


.Off cause there already exist a vessel that fullfil every one of RMN desire. It's called JS osumi. Going japanese is good since they can't really export weapon. So it's would be more of a co design & co engineering with all the construction being made here. Not to mention they more than happy to give us 1% rated loan. Which would allow us to finished the LCS while getting the MRSS at the same time.

And by next RM. We can just reuse the facilities that make MMEA absalon to build type 31. Just like how the rebooted LMS going to be a sigma.






.
darth5zaft
post May 27 2021, 11:04 PM

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QUOTE(Lampuajaib @ May 27 2021, 09:19 PM)
To be fair, we should check on GDP and annual budget.
Every nation has their own priorities. MY and ID still many things to develop especially on rural areas while SG is not. So, SG can put bigger percentage on defence sector.

What if MY already finished in developing the rural areas? it will be a different story'.
*
More like their citizens doesn't expect low taxation & high social services which allows them to spend more on defense.

But they already spend 3% on defense. Doubt their rakyat can accept any more hike in defense spending particularly if MY & ID behave & not be a dick

darth5zaft
post May 29 2021, 10:16 PM

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QUOTE(azriel @ May 29 2021, 07:13 PM)
Yes it is. The Indonesian MoD even wants the budget allocated in 2024 at the latest. This is very huge so it need a presidential decree. Unconfirmed report the Indonesian National Budgetary Agency (BAPPENAS) so far have approved  USD 20 billion for defense budget. The year up to 2044 is for financial payment scheme.
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Buy Rafale for the kickback (the french are very famous for these)
Use the money & drum up the Rafale as national pride ala modi to try for the 3rd time lucky bid for the presidency?

So it less to do with strengthening of the military
Just a politikus doing politikus things.

If Probowo want to do what best for the nation
Then just get more F16.

But buying sensible F16 won't win any votes though.

This post has been edited by darth5zaft: May 29 2021, 10:18 PM
darth5zaft
post May 29 2021, 11:01 PM

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QUOTE(Mai189 @ May 29 2021, 05:04 PM)
Actually, their citizens "do' want more defence spending because they know they can spend more and have the monies to back it up. They dont borrow to spend and yet thier wealth keeps increasing. The only thing that is holding them back is that the PAP government is financially prudent. Sgs constitution caps spending at 6% of GDP.

At 3% they are already spending abt usd $12billion. You want Sg to double that to $24billion USD? Im sure no one in the region wants that. Not Indo and not Msia when you have a neighbour with a defence budget bigger than israels'.

P.S:
I do expect Sgs spending to hit abt USD $14 to USD $15 billion and taper off until 2030ish or when they reach the golden number for right amt of money for expenses vis a vis cost savings e.g. low overheads - small size, high productivity/efficiency etc.
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Why can't MY & ID accepted it When they been overspend on weapon then everyone else even ID all along?

One thing people got to remember is that SG has exhausted all source of growth, they aren't likely to grow higher than 3% annually.

Post 2030, they either double it to 6% of GDP to spend as much as ID then double it up again post 2040 to keep up with ID while all ID has to do is maintain it at 1% of GDP. But if they don't increase their military spending they would spend only as much as MY post 2040. L

Why do you think Israel are trying hard to have a normalized relationship with their neighbors nowdays?


darth5zaft
post May 29 2021, 11:27 PM

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QUOTE(Mai189 @ May 29 2021, 11:02 PM)
Thats a good observation. For a small air force consisting of a mix of 3rd and 4th gen russian and uk and us combat jets, the indo should stick with the f16vs above and not add to the logistical train.

The f16vs are regarded as 4.5 gen aircrafts together with the latest f18 SH variants, F15sg, f15sa, f15qa and f15ex. F22s and f35s are 5th gen aircrafts.
*
Buying new F16 seem like quite a waste of money though as it's only just marginally least expensive then the F35. So Wonder if the F16 is just an interim measure and can be exchange with F35 in 10 years time.

USAF already flown the 6th gen prototypes, so by 2030. They would start entering production. Which would allowed the F35 to be sold to non partners country?




darth5zaft
post May 29 2021, 11:58 PM

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QUOTE(Mai189 @ May 29 2021, 11:29 PM)
Sg is expected to grow > 4% to 6% this year. In spite of being developed or high income, theyve been growing at 3% to 5%, thats quite a feat over the past years. As ive shared, it is all relative as a more developed or smaller country can afford to spend more on some sectors including defence because they do need to spend more in some other sectors e.g. infrastructure. For e.g. Sg has been spending tens of billions yearly in rail networks but these projects will soon end so theyll end up with more savings in future. Another point to note is Sgs a creditor nation - they make surpluses and do not borrow to spend. Sgs 2 huge global investment vehicles Temasek and GIC for e.g. (worth about USD $800 billion to USD $900 billion in total excluding Sgs foreign reserves of now nearly USD $400 billion) make tens of billions in revenue each year and these funds continue to grow. Sg can spend a lot. There is a limit cetainly but if they are pressed, they can sustain a much much higher level of spending than currently. And not borrow at all.
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Lol 4-6% this year only. Not 4-6% annually. Any country which able to get out of the pandemic would grow 200% more than usual due to the slowdowns before.


Remember state wealth is not equal citizens wealth.

Also the state doesn't pay for the rail, the citizens does. as rail lines are paid through state land sales whose monopoly on supplies inflated the price of property there. They don't pay for healthcare nor roads as well.

SG core competency is
1) low taxes rates which allowed them to be the paper HQ of MNC operating in ASEAN, infact 70% of their GDP is due to those MNC, the rest are filled by mostly GLC which monopolize almost all domestic industry.

2) very competent gov interference a result of blurring the lines between what is PAP and the civil service.


And yet even at the height of a pandemic where people priorities security over anything else, PAP only win 60% of popular votes. If this trend continue and their citizens demanded more and more social services they can't afford to keep the taxes rates low for those MNC to still be there or if they demanded more & more democracy then they lose the effective gov interference.

The end of one party state is quite devastating for SG as they are very specialized on the taxes heaven economy. So unlike TW/SK even ID the end of one party state won't be of any benefits to them. So unless PAP prepared SG for a post PAP SG. It would take quite a miracle for SG to not follow the trejectory of HK. Afterall few decades back HK GDP was 200% of SG/MY.

darth5zaft
post May 31 2021, 03:29 AM

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QUOTE(Mai189 @ May 30 2021, 07:32 PM)
The point I was addressing in my afore-mentioned post was that they should buy US and not because of the potential of embargoes. This argument is clearly flawed as you have pointed out yourself.  Even the EU can impose embargoes. Secondly, I also raised the issue of having a small air-force in the case of Indo, and the need to harmonize the logistical train. You feel that there should be a zoo of an air-force. I think differently i.e. you will face cost, logistical, training and jointness issues when you buy items from all over the world. That is same reason why the RMAF does not want any more Suks.

Indonesias GDP per cap is $4,256. And >10% of her population lives beneath the poverty line. It is a trifle obfuscating to merely state that they are a middle income country. There is a long way 2 go certainly. And this shows in its almost frantic efforts to secure friendly loans to modernize its increasingly ageing military or confused decisions to buy aircraft from used Typhoons, Rafales, F35, F15s, dozens of submarines, frigates, etc. And yet purchases were not made. In some cases e.g. F35s and F15EX, they are unlikely to get the go-ahead from the US.

So, youll need to take such claims with a pinch of salt each time.

A modern Indo military will actually help the other littoral states in SEA in keeping this region free from being a Chinese lake until it has moderated their behaviour. The other powers including the US cannot do it sans the support of SEA littoral states. This is so important right now.
*
ID is an island state so you could expect island mentality there not dissimilar to Penang. They are a bit disconnect and thus they never actually consider being a big brother for the time being protecting other states. Things might change once they move their capital to a multinational island of Borneo.


ID is Unlike MY. MY are looking to the west for defense & economic relationship to counter the potential threads of china and to solve our middle income trap problem. MY also had complete control of her territories, aren't involved in human right violation nor occupation or fighting rebel.we don't really have any point of conflicts to fully embraces the west. You could see country with a zoo of equipment are one that not so compatible with western values be it Egypt,India, turkey etc etc. They all still want an abilities to do some very questionable shit to satisfied internal politics. And thus why our friends there keep on saying stuff such as embargoes. Let us remind ourselves why they were being embargoes in their first place.


So MY can afford high growth provide by the relationship with the west. ID is not looking for fast growth. Infact for few more decades MY is predicted to grow at about the same rate with ID, despite ID being a lower middle income country would typically grow more. At the end of the day their prioritize stability over growth so a strong relationship with the west is of limited interest for them. What they really want is for SK & JP to move factory there's so they could create mass employment. FDI from the west is mostly for high income employment not mass employment. So in essence they are not looking for a strong relationship with the west.

Another is affordability really. No matter how efficiency they got with the F16, it's nowhere near enough to provide security to all of it's territories. So buying a few hero product is an easy way out to convince the public otherwise. Even b4 the embargoes they don't even have capabilities to confront the Australian which leads to the independence of east Timor.

ID for now doesn't think they are in trouble just as long as they aren't in a starring competition. China themselves are very reluctant to confront ID. No one wants to lose Access to quarter a billion population market. Most of the time it was ID who play the provocateurs. So there's really no need for them to create a jointness, network centric, highly efficient army that can works with Allies. Beyond some wayang to showcase their anti chinese stands, they won't go beyond that.

ID understand themselves to be weak currently but they know with time they would grow strong due to their population & land area. So deep inside they harbor big brother ambition just like india, Egypt, turkey & India. So they did exactly what turkey & India did and get a zoo of equipment for their army to leverage their bet until they can berdiri atas kaki sendiri. Technically they can just do what US want them to do and they can get strong & rich in a very short time. But their pride would not allowed them to do what was obvious. Some people love being in a daddykasi protectorate situations some just too degil to do so.




darth5zaft
post May 31 2021, 04:07 AM

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On other notes

Rumour has it that the army is looking at 250 6x6 as condor replacement.

Could it be what the army had in mind is this?



At 1 mil euro each, this things is half the price of lipanbara & the same amount of money deftech want to refurbish the condors.if not mistaken Sapura is the one trying to push this and has showcase a Renault truck (basically a Volvo) for some defense show now's

The base of griffon is also can be configured as jaguar, serval & Ceaser allowing commonality among TD vehicle. Not to mention once the army production cease, the same factory can just churn out Volvo truck as apposed to deftech & BNS who want to be spoon-fed non stop.

Assuming the Adnan are retired, 250 ish gempita + 250 griffon would allowed the army to immitate the french army at half the size. A whole fleet of wheel base vehicle which allowed for rapid deployment by road/sea and air.

Personally seeing how MOD has been dragging their feet at heli acquisition and the fact CTRM had expand the facilities 200% in size. Seem to me they just waiting for the french to finish up h160m and manufacturer it here to be the de facto heli just as SK did with surion?

As for TLDM & TUDM seem like they wanted to have the same number/type of ship/plane as the Australian. Which seems like quite a tall order.


darth5zaft
post May 31 2021, 05:49 PM

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QUOTE(Lampuajaib @ May 31 2021, 08:39 AM)
Awesome.....
No to lipan bara or condor refurbishment.
Buy directly G to G, no more middle-man or any local defence industry
*
Technically defense acquisition can be use to help expand local industry.

Like i said, build the griffon locally and the factory can build Volvo truck after the army finished with their order.

Or build MRSS and our shipyard would be capable to build mega size container & oil vessels.

Or instead of going turkey, we should had gone Korean and the same factory that churn out Hyundai rotem 8x8 can be reconfigure to churn out trains afterwards.

Unfortunately our history of military acquisition is full of self defeating policies as politaik choose the wrong equipment & wrong companies for personal gains to earn songlap. Deftech & BNS has no commercial application and thus they become a zombie that requires feeding without able to contribute anything other than to mark up the acquisition cost.
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post May 31 2021, 05:59 PM

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QUOTE(Al-Benis bin Hugh Mungus @ May 31 2021, 03:41 PM)
"human rights abuses"? "human rights abuses"?! Mate, are you being serious right now?!  doh.gif

If the US imposes sanctions on countries for "human rights abuses", it would have sanctioned Israel over Palestine and Saudi Arabia & the UAE over Yemen a long time ago!

No country in the world gets sanctioned by the US over their "human rights abuses". No country! It is a meme and a tool!

If the last 70 years of American foreign policy should have taught people anything is that countries can commit any amount of "human rights abuses" and infractions, no matter how severe, so long as it moved in lockstep with the US. So long as you make the White House and Congress very happy, they would sweep any "human rights abuses" concerns under the rug, but if you ever refuse to dance like a puppet on a string and speak words like a doll with ventriloquist's hand up your arse, then by God, they will sanction you! They will find your "human rights abuses", they will find even the tiniest of infractions and magnify them a thousand times over and failing that, they will make them!
Yes! Yes, I've stated multiple times that they can they can and they have! And that is exactly the point of having multiplicity of sources!

How can I explain this in a way you will understand?  bangwall.gif

I doubt anything I say wouldn't just fly over your head again, but for the sake of others reading this, I'll try.

If - for example - a country's air force is made up of 1/3 American fighters, 1/3 Euro fighters and 1/3 Russian fighters, an American embargo will ground only 1/3 of this country's Air Force, as opposed to its entirety in the even that you depend 100% on American imports. If the EU imposes sanctions, the same thing, you can still keep 2/3 of your fighter fleet flying. The same goes for Russian sanctions.

Is this ideal? Heck no!

Of course, it's not ideal!  ranting.gif

But we don't live in an ideal world. We live in a world where not all countries are able to manufacture their own equipment and where some who do, leverage it to force others to do their bidding.

This may be fine for small countries. For the statelets of the world, it may even be ideal to take shelter under the armpit of a great power. A small country's interests are not many compared to a larger country, and it is far less capable of living on its own resources anyway. So, yes, for these countries, being under the hegemonic sway of a superpower is completely acceptable. You get to access its trade block, its market and resources. You even get to secure your continued existence under its world order. What's not to like?

But this is not the case for large national-states!

The Russias, the Chinas, the Indias and the Indonesias of the world will never accept such subordination.

No country that is the 4th most populous on the planet, that is the world's largest archipelagic state, that boasts 1.9 million sq km of land and 5 million sq km of water, that straddles two continents and two oceans, that sits atop some of the busiest maritime traffic in the world, will accept subordination to another.

Neither the political establishment, nor the armed forces, nor the people of such a country will accept playing second fiddle - certainly not forever. Their ambitions will always include sitting at the table of the great powers as an equal.

If Singapore is a country of such size, it too wouldn't so readily jump at the chance of being a satellite of another. It too would have equally great ambitions, if not greater, because these are simply the natural imperatives imposed by its conditions and geography.

Trying to suggest that countries of such asymmetry as Singapore and Indonesia should follow the same strategy and approach to national defense and geopolitical relations is completely tone-deaf. It completely ignores their geopolitical realities. Their conditions, their concerns and what best fulfills their national interests are completely alien to one another.

And speaking of national interests, let me address your continued insistence on bringing up the EU and its embargoes.

Yes, the EU may impose such a thing and they had done such a thing. But the EU is in any case not a monolith and are hardly united.

Look at how divided they are over the question of gas from Russia! Look at how divided they are over the 2003 invasion of Iraq! Ultimately, the EU is made up of many countries, each with their own national interests which are not always in lock step with one another. Sometimes, they diverge and even clash. This division is something Indonesia understands it can use. It is what many other countries, including China, have used to their own benefit, blunting any coherent EU response to concerns over them.

And in as much as the EU is dominated by its Western European member states, it is far closer to ASEAN - a disunited grouping - than it is to the federated United States of America. And these Western European member states are also, in any case, nation states with their own national interests. Brexit have also shown that they can be counted on to not always move in lockstep and present a united front. So they make far better defense partners for a country like Indonesia than the likes of the US or China.

And with that, I am done. I will not be writing anything more on the issues I've covered over the last several posts in this thread. Those posts will stand on their own. Anyone who still refuses to understand them at this point is either being disingenuous or have simply refused to understand.  cool2.gif
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Better be quick then.
As it's is now MY are far ahead then ID in developing relationship & be a satellite of EU then ID is.

Though I doubt MY preference for european weapon got to do with EU being disorganized, more towards the fact that SG had monopolize economic & defense relationship with the US.

Not to mention, china seem to make quite an inroad into TH as well.

Is this the reason why ID just acquired stuff from SK nowdays? Is getting arms from SK a sound policies?

This post has been edited by darth5zaft: May 31 2021, 06:03 PM
darth5zaft
post Jun 3 2021, 06:35 PM

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[quote=azriel,Jun 1 2021, 07:20 AM]Unconfirmed report the Indonesian Navy Iver Huitfeldt frigate contract is now effective. The frigate final design will take 9 - 10 months to finish. First steel cutting expected next year. The Indonesian MoD wants the first frigate launching in end of 2023 or early 2024.

There was also early reports that the variant of the Iver Huifeldt Frigate for the Indonesian Navy will be equipped with Terma C-Flex CMS and Hensoldt TRS-4D Radar. Photo credit to Shipbucket.

user posted image
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[/quote]

Do they make a OPV or absalon class varient?

Personally i do think that MMEA "mothership" is basically an OPV version of SG MRCV. A joint procurement would help drive the cost down a lot considering ID would only be building 2.
quote=Frozen_Sun,Jun 2 2021, 09:22 AM]
$5 billion a year....

it could start from $3 billion per year, then around $8 billion per year in 2040

So, probably just allocation of regular budget. It remains to be seen if this will be followed up by future presidents. Jokowi and ryamizard terminated SBY's MEF program, so there's no obligation for future presidents.
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[/quote]

maybe they should put up some basic infographic like RMN/RMAF did to discourage politicians from dicking around. A full fat defense white paper would be better

This post has been edited by darth5zaft: Jun 3 2021, 06:47 PM
darth5zaft
post Jun 3 2021, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(Lampuajaib @ Jun 1 2021, 09:47 PM)
Nak intercept pun guna hawk.....kesian betul la.
MY ni bukan tak ada duit....ni dah kira emergency la.
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Not about tak are duit.
TUDM want a magical jet that can

1)be a lift like Aermacchi
2) be a close air support like hawk
3) be an interceptor like MIG.

While politicians be it from PH & PN talk about MY building their own jet plane.

Basically they all wanted a jet that doesn't exist (yet!)

You could buy amerachi or fa-50 for 30mil USD. But once you want to shoot BVR it going to cost 50 mil USD which is basically the price of Gripen E. All of these jet had limited user so don't expect to used them for long.

Thought i come across this website which predict the development path of T7A as a spiritual successor to F5 with available license production to allies country so they can maintain/build/upgrade it themselves.

user posted image

https://warontherocks.com/2017/05/reclaimin...proven-success/


Thought it nice and all but the earliest not fighting capable jet can only be had by 2024 or 2028 for combat capable version (assuming US got the funding to build it in the 1st place). Meanwhile 36 of our Sukhoi & hawk aren't being 'upgraded' so basically if anything happens we are only down to almost nak roboh 8 bijik hornet.

Off cause even if Canada acquired those Gripen and we tumbang sekaki, they going to modified it kaw kaw as it would only be operational by 2028. US navy also looking for a hawk replacement again only available by 2028.

So assuming MY want US jet there's won't be any available for again at least 2028.

We could thank mamakthir for this. If he had gone for a full hornet + hawk fleet we still have 80 plane available and are flying rather than now where we can realistically count on 8 hornet.

Maybe we should go cry to uncle Sam to let us have f35 for now as their LCA aren't available for 10 more years. Technically there enough budget in this RM to buy either 36 Fa-50 or 15 f35A.
darth5zaft
post Jun 4 2021, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(tokroni @ Jun 4 2021, 09:22 AM)
The best option for us right now in the immediate future is to beg/kowtow for Legacy Hornets from Kuwait/Australia/Canada/US. Enough for 2 squadrons kira success already. 24-8=16 units. Surely US Marines can give/sell us their Legacy Hornet at bargain prices. After all, we are at the front line against Red China

After that, buy base model T50 . Enough as trainer aircraft. 3 squadrons.36 unitsxUSD 30 miliion

Sell all besi buruk MIGs, Aemarshit, Sukhoi and Hawks after that

In 2050, maybe we can shop around at whatever staealth aircraft available
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If MY wanted old hornet or old F16, we would had done so.
There's plenty of 'friends' who wanted to give us stuff from Blackhawks to self propelled howatzer. But we never did take on the offer. We wanted new toys. Maintaining old stuff is not in our culture. Not to mention it's not a replacement it's an additional, so we would be wasting money training people for a stopgap. So that's why we never did.

MY bought the hawk & hornet simply because that's what Australia,Canada & USN use. We don't have much money to buy missiles,but if we use the same jet as them, in time of emergency we can at least beg for missiles.So we won't be buying the f35 because of it stealth, just like we/RCAF/RAAF bought the F18 because it could land on carrier.We bought it simply because USN bought it.

ROKAF & RSAF are closer to USAF, so they use the same toys as them.

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