QUOTE(flight @ Oct 14 2009, 07:41 PM)
The only part I agree with is the part where interest rates will affect REIT prices.
REITs do follow market sentiment, if they did not they wouldn't have collapsed so spectacularly during the market crash. The fundamentals were unchanged during that period.
With a yield of around 8% in most REIT's right now I think it's still a relatively safe place to park your money.
Those who love highly geared REIT's like AXREIT should take note that AXREIT has almost maxed out their 50% debt available to them. If interest rates come up, not only are they going to look less attractive, their going to have to pay back all the money they were borrowing from the bank. Unless they got fixed rate or something like that, which doesnt seem likely.
Reit does partly follow market sentiment, after all everything (in short term) follow general market sentiment, even rubbish stocks also can go up in a bullish market.
But for local reit, due to low liquidity, a lot of time, it tends not to follow market sentiment. As reit still limited to some investors interest only, particularly from fund managers that look for fixed income investment like insurance funds, while only little retailers are participating in it.
Reit fall spectacularly during the crash (in fact everything fall drastically back then) especially in US and UK, because of property market bubble burst, while they are highly geared than what local reit is, and some unable to refinance the borrowing due, which need to fire-sale their portfolio properties at the wrong time so it is not without fundamental change. For local, with serious recession threat, it means future rental or tenant lease renewal could be problematic (that's why local reit also failling quite a lot), Atrium is the classic example whereby DPU falling sharply due to tenant moving out, so fundamental does change.
But right now with recovery and improvement all across, so does prospect of reit.
Axreit is under private placement (50 million shares) just month ago which pare down the borrowing.
Interest going up or not, reit company is not paying back all the money they borrow one (they don't have the money to pay for, as 90% of income is always distributed to the shareholders already). Always refinancing and roll over the loan when due, except through private placement to raise cash or sell the portfolio properties, only they can able to repay the all borrowing
Yes, interest rate goes up does hurt the attractiveness of reit, while mean more interest expenses incurred.
But if interest rate goes up, it means economy is doing well, so generally properties market also in good shape and potential better property value appreciation as well as better negotiation price for the rental.